Category: US Stock Markets
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, August 08, 2019
Technical Analysis of US Major Stocks / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Justin_Weinger
Microsoft (MSFT)
At the present time, Microsoft is one of the best-performing major US stocks, up 59% since January 2019. Even though the tech sector had quite a bumpy ride for the past year and a half, the major software company continued to advance higher, exceeding the $1 trillion market cap valuation.
Monday, July 08, 2019
Huge Gap between US Markets and International Trade / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dan_Steinbock
Globalization is not a concern to the Trump administration, which seeks to sustain high market valuations that are not supported by the fundamentals. As a result, a global recession in 2020 would not be the worst scenario. Since the mid-1980s, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has been used as a barometer of international commodity trade. It is also seen as an economic indicator of future economic growth and production.
During the years of globalization, the Index heralded the peak of the oil prices and soared to a record high in May 2008 reaching 11,793 points. But as the financial crisis spread in the advanced West, the BDI plunged by 94% to 663 points, the lowest since 1986. That’s when marine shippers were moving dangerously close to the combined operating costs of vessels, fuel, and crews.
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Friday, May 10, 2019
Big US Stocks’ 2019 Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Zeal_LLC
The US stock markets sure feel inflectiony, at a major juncture. After achieving new all-time record highs, sentiment was euphoric heading into this week. But those latest heights could be a massive triple top that formed over 15 months. Then heavy selling erupted in recent days as the US-China trade war suddenly went hostile. The big US stocks’ just-reported Q1’19 fundamentals will help determine where markets go next.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.
The deadline for filing 10-Qs for “large accelerated filers” is 40 days after fiscal quarter-ends. The SEC defines this as companies with market capitalizations over $700m. That currently includes every stock in the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX), which contains the biggest and best American companies. The middle of this week marked 38 days since the end of Q1, so almost all the big US stocks have reported.
The SPX is the world’s most-important stock index by far, with its components commanding a staggering collective market cap of $24.9t at the end of Q1! The vast majority of investors own the big US stocks of the SPX, as some combination of them are usually the top holdings of nearly every investment fund. That includes retirement capital, so the fortunes of the big US stocks are crucial for Americans’ overall wealth.
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Friday, April 13, 2018
Big Cap US Stocks Fundamentals / Companies / US Stock Markets
By: Zeal_LLC
The mega-cap stocks that dominate the US markets have enjoyed an amazing bull run. But February’s first correction in years proved things are changing. With that unnatural low-volatility melt-up behind us, it’s more important than ever to keep leading stocks’ underlying fundamentals in focus. They help investors understand which major American companies are the best buys and when to deploy capital in them.
For some years now, I’ve been doing deep dives into the quarterly financial and operational results in the small contrarian sector of gold and silver miners. While hard and tedious work, this exercise has proven incredibly valuable. With each passing quarter my knowledge of individual companies grows, helping to ferret out miners with superior fundamentals and the greatest upside potential. Traders love the resulting essays.
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Thursday, July 09, 2015
NYSE Shut Down Likely Due to Power Outage / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Bloomberg
Tom Farley, NYSE Group President, spoke with Bloomberg Television's Stephanie Ruhle about the glitches that brought the NYSE trading to a halt for three and half hours.
On what led to the shutdown, Farley said: "We were getting intermittent messages of customers not seeing the exact behavior that they would otherwise expect with respect to messages. I didn't feel like we had the level of trust in our systems that is required and I made the decision, working with regulatory team and counsel's office, let's suspend trading."
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Thursday, June 18, 2015
How Will 2015 End For U.S. Markets? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: AnyOption
Anyoption writes: Throughout the past several years, the bull has been running in U.S. markets; and while the bull is still somewhat running, it has definitely lost a bit of pep in its step. Simply put, we're not seeing the growth in 2015 that we saw over the past several years. Now the big question is, “How will the year end?” Unfortunately, I'm not sure we're going to see much positivity as the year closes. Today, we'll take a close look at leading indicators with regard to the health of U.S. and discuss why this year is likely to come to a bad close.
Thursday, March 12, 2015
Dow Stock Index Embrace of Apple Reveals New Paths to Profits / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_Morning
Michael E. Lewitt writes: The announcement last week that Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) would replace AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) in the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average's 30 top companies reflects an important trend that investors can play to their advantage. Today, I'll tell you how.
Previously, the biggest shake-up of the Dow came in September 2013 when Goldman Sachs, Nike, and Visa knocked out Alcoa, Bank of America, and Hewlett-Packard.
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Tuesday, March 03, 2015
Nasdaq 5000 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Jack_Steiman
It took fifteen years to make the round trip from 5000 plus down to 1100 back to 5000 on the Nasdaq. Most thought we'd never get back to that lofty level of 5000 after looking in to the eyes of 1100. The average trader, and especially the long-term holder, was devastated. All hope was lost for the most part by the majority of people. I don't think there's anyone reading this letter that thought the bubble that had burst would get back to a bubble again. But here we are. The glory of the froth bubble is back with us, but under different circumstances. Ms Yellen, and the rest of her global gang members, are protecting their markets through liquidity and rates, thus, it's very complicated when determining from what level this puppy will finally crash from. It will crash out some day, but to this point in time there are still no classic signs of that happening. I will discuss that in a bit.
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Friday, May 30, 2014
Stock Market Over 85 Years - Has the Fed Produced Any Benefits? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: EWI
By Robert Prechter
Has the Fed Produced Any Benefits?
The Fed has benefited the
government
mightily. Its exchange of new accounting units for the Treasury’s bonds
has stealthily transferred value from savers’ accounts to the government. In conjunction with the FDIC, it has also
benefitted
bankers
in the short run by allowing them to make profits on reckless loans and avoid accountability. But
in doing so it has sucked value out of savers’ accounts and burdened the American economy.
Thursday, September 12, 2013
Nasdaq Presses on Without Apple Support / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: PhilStockWorld
What an exciting index!
On Tuesday, as one of our "5 More Trade Ideas that make 500% in an Up Market", we went long on 16 QQQ Jan $75/80 bull call spreads at $3 ($4,800) and paid for them by selling 2 ISRG 2015 $300 puts for $23.50 ($4,700) for net $100 on the $8,000 spread in our virtual Short-Term Portfolio.
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Thursday, November 08, 2012
Marc Faber Says Obama Election Win is a Disaster For US Econcomy and Stock Market / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Bloomberg
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom Boom, & Doom Report, told Bloomberg Television's Trish Regan and Adam Johnson on "Street Smart" today that "Mr. Obama is a disaster for business and a disaster for the United States" and that he "thought that the market on his reelection should be down at least 50%."
Faber also said "I doubt [Obama] will stay at the presidency for another four years. I think there will be so many scandals" and that investors should "buy themselves a machine gun."
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Tuesday, June 19, 2012
U.S. Stock Market Analysis and Forecasts Free Access / News_Letter / US Stock Markets
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle NewsletterJune 15th , 2012 Issue #9 Vol. 6
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Saturday, April 07, 2012
US Stock Market Downtrend Appears Underway / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Tony_Caldaro
After making a new uptrend high on monday US markets then began to weaken throughout the holiday shortened week. The SPX/DOW were -0.95% and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Asian markets were quite mixed again -0.2%, but European markets were all lower for the third week in a row -2.9%. On the economic front positive reports outnumbered negative reports 8 to 6. On the uptick: ISM manufacturing, factory orders, auto sales, the M1-multiplier, investor sentiment, the WLEI, plus both weekly jobless and the unemployment rate improved. On the downtick: construction spending, ADP, ISM services, monthly payrolls, consumer credit and the monetary base. Next week we’ll get reports on the CPI/PPI, Export/Import prices, the twin deficits and the FED’s beige book.
Saturday, December 17, 2011
The Truth About the Stock Market and Presidential Election Years! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Sy_Harding
Next year is a Presidential election year, and the stock market is almost always positive in election years. Right? At least that assurance has been a supposed truism for many decades, and repeated as fact each year in numerous interviews and financial columns.
And it makes sense.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Why Investors Should Fear America's "Sputnik Moment" / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: In his State of the Union Address yesterday (Tuesday) evening, U.S. President Barack Obama said the United States is experiencing another "Sputnik moment."
For a free marketer like myself, that's deeply depressing rhetoric: It reflects the reality that President Obama believes that this crisis - like others that came before it - is best solved by still more government action.
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Friday, November 05, 2010
Republican Victory and Fed Quantitative Easing Mean It’s Time to Shift From Commodities to U.S. Stocks / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
The U.S. economic and investment world has changed fundamentally in the last 48 hours from two key events:
•The massive Republican victory in Tuesday's midterm elections.
•And the $600 billion worth of bond purchases by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
These two events have changed the trajectory of the U.S. economy, probably for the next two years.
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Should the U.S. be Classified as an Emerging Market for Investment Purposes? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Trader_Mark
An interesting debate on CNBC on whether the U.S. should now be classified as an emerging market for investment purposes? While easy to laugh it off, the country is exhibiting many of the risk factors traditionally correlated with developing markets. For example:
Sunday, October 10, 2010
US Stock Market Indices Continue Their Upward Trend / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Peter_Navarro
The good news: The US market indices continue their upward trend last week as the Dow Jones industrial average broke above the 11,000 mark for the first time in over five months. The bad news: this latest market uptrend appears not to be driven by good economic news but rather by an emerging "carry trade" driven by the easy money policies of the US and a number of other countries around the world, including Japan.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Predicting the Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_Lamont
Two years ago in The Return of Capital, Not The Return on Capital, we stated: "...as an indicator of a major trend reversal, 'Tens of thousands' of Japanese homemaker-traders are leveraging their bets on a fall in the yen. As global margin calls come in, investors will unwind their positions, and the homemaker-traders will find that they were the last ones to the party. We expect the Yen to appreciate for the long term, causing major pain for these novice investors." The weekly chart below of the Japanese Yen shows just how wrong those homemaker-traders have been.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Stock Market Critical Support Holds / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Jack_Steiman
I talked about the first important, though not critical, support level on the indexes being the 20-day exponential moving averages. We tested down to those levels late last week but held and closed right near them. The key was to see if we were in a more immediate selling phase or not, which would be known by how the market responded today. It left little doubt about where we are on the journey.
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Thursday, September 24, 2009
Overbought Stock Market Corrects on Positive Fed Statement / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Jack_Steiman
The market has been very overbought for quite some time. Sometimes it gets ridiculous to be blunt. Staying at levels of overbought you just don't see very often. We can see that, not only on the index charts, but on many regular stock charts such as Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Google Inc. (GOOG) to name just a few. Both of those issues printed, on the daily charts, RSI's just under 80 today. That's just silly. These readings can't go on forever.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Stock Market Rally, Time to be a Contrarian? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Claus_Vogt
Claus Vogt writes: Many successful investors and speculators, like Warren Buffett and George Soros, are said to be contrarians. But what does this really mean? And is it true?
Let’s have a look at the concept of contrarianism to find out whether it can give us some guidance during these exciting times …
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Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Stock Market "Buy The Dip" Mentality Fully Entrenched / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Shedlock
Anyone following the markets knows there is a huge underlying bid.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Stock Markets Could Soar by Another 50% / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Sean_Brodrick
Many smart people say the markets are headed for another big leg down soon. And maybe they’re right. But traders and investors should always examine opposing views. Today, I want to make the case for stocks going MUCH higher from here. That doesn’t mean I’m bullish on the broad economy — far from it. But stocks could rally — perhaps as much as another 50 PERCENT — riding on a rising flood of government money.
Saturday, September 05, 2009
Stock Market Hits Major Resistance, A Time for Caution and Respect / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
It has been a rally with no significant upside resistance for the S&P 500 ... until now.
In 2007, the market started its journey down in a ride where many investors where afraid to jump off of the moving train. Since March of this year, many have left their fear behind as the S&P moved up once again in a rally with Government and Fed rhetoric singing songs of "the recession is over".
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Monday, August 31, 2009
New Stock Market Sell Signals for SPX and NDX / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Angelo_Campione
Official signal: SELL Signal on SPX __ __ __ __
SELL Signal on NDX __ __ __ __
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Historical Stocks Bear and Bull Markets Compared / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Nilus Mattive writes: It seems as though just about everyone has now completely written off the bear market as “so last quarter.” Isn’t it amazing what a couple months of upticks can do?
Don’t get me wrong. I’m as happy as anyone that this rally has had staying power. It means my favorite dividend stocks are increasing in value!
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Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Stock Markets at Another Critical Juncture / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Guy_Lerner
I use the quotations because the markets are always at another one of those "critical" junctures, and I just laugh to myself as I wonder at how critical can "critical" be. But maybe this juncture is more critical than others because after multiple bubbles and tremendous wealth destruction, analysts are once again pounding the table that the "mother of all bull markets" lies ahead, and investors, who have been burned for 10 years running, are being asked to come to the party. Again!
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Tuesday, August 11, 2009
U.S. Stock Market Remains Strong / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Frederic_Simons
The US Stock bonds has shown remarkable resiliance during the last few days. One could get the feeling that it just does "not want to go down". During the trading days, it has become visible however that the Nasdaq is now somewhat underperforming the S&P. Traditionally, this tends to be a signal that a reversal might be happening soon, as the Nasdaq usually outperforms the S&P during upmoves.
Wednesday, August 05, 2009
Stock Market Investing, The Thrill of a Lifetime? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: John_Browne
Anyone looking for thrills these days should forget roller coasters and skydiving. Instead, simply buy a few shares of U.S. stock. The past year has reminded us how truly stomach-churning the financial ride can be. And after a white-knuckled drop in 2008, investors who held on are now enjoying a dizzying ascent. In the past five months alone, the S&P has risen by 22 percent and the NASDAQ by 33 percent. Emerging markets are back almost to their pre-recession levels. Even individual American stocks have performed in a stellar manner. Apple, Cisco and Oracle have all risen by over 200 percent. Ford, an aging relic once given up for dead, has risen by 268 percent!
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Wednesday, August 05, 2009
Stock Market Signals a Medium-Term Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Claus Vogt writes: In last week’s Money and Markets column, I talked about probabilities. And I explained why I expect the current stock market rally to have legs. This market call, however, is valid for just a few quarters …
My long-term outlook hasn’t changed one iota!
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Wednesday, August 05, 2009
Investment Grade Value Stock Index (IGVSI) Soars 24% / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Steve_Selengut
The Investment Grade Value Stock Index is a barometer of a small but elite sector of the stock market. Some Investment Grade Value Stocks are included in all averages and indices, but even the Dow Jones Industrial Average includes several issues that are below Investment Grade and very few boast an A+ S & P rating.
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Tuesday, August 04, 2009
For Stock Markets It Seems the Only Way is UP / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: PaddyPowerTrader
The markets summer of love with stocks continued unabated yesterday as the S&P topped 1,000 and the Nasdaq pushed through the 2,000 barrier for the first time since October. Yesterday’s fresh catalyst was Ford’s bullish sales report (up 2.4% YOY, their 1st monthly rise since Nov 2000) and a better than expected jump in manufacturing ISM (which was no clunker, see below), while renewed gains in commodities and oil (above $71 barrel) cheered producers.
Monday, August 03, 2009
Stock Market Makes Significant Transition Progress From Bear to Bull Market / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Chris_Ciovacco
The transition from a bear market to a bull market is just that; a transition. Transitions take time and are not binary events like turning a light on or off. Transitions in any market can be frustrating and stressful, but if we continue to focus on the most important and telling indicators, the market should get us pointed in the right direction and aligned with the primary trends.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Stock Market Manages to Hold Gains After Strong Opening Gap / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
We had another up-day, and the indices started with a big rally that broke key multiple session consolidation ranges and went to new 3-week & 2009 rally highs.
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Sunday, July 26, 2009
Don't Short a Dull Stock Market / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: All of the major indices closed at multi month highs last week.
Short Term - The market action that I interpreted as a blow off a week ago continued last week.
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Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Stock Market Bulls Try To Take It Up A Notch / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Chris_Ciovacco
The financial markets have done a good job of forecasting the slow improvements we have seen in the economic numbers in recent weeks. Even though the economy remains weak, we cannot ignore the steady stream of incremental improvements in the economic data. For example leading economic indicators (LEIs) have increased for three consecutive months. In the June report from the Conference Board , seven of the ten LEI components showed positive improvement.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Stock Market Bulls Driving Prices Higher / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Frederic_Simons
The week is beginning as it ended in equities, with stock prices moving higher and bulls seemingly buying every dip during the day. The short term picture thus remains bullish even if the S&P 500 has been moving higher without looking back from about 865 on 7/13 to almost 950 on 7/21.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Stock Market Rally Facing Resistance / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
All that great analysis and divining of last week was toss back in our face as the markets raced higher, putting in their best week since March. The catalyst? Some better than expected economic reports, showing home building activity picking up (do we need more?) and unemployment claims fell (messed up seasonal factors with GM/Chrysler bankruptcies).Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Stock Market Strong Start to the Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices started the week in strong fashion. Although they were very choppy during the day, they did hold support for most of the session, and then came on again in the last hour, closing at the highs for the day going away, which are also the highs for this entire rally.
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Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Financial Stocks Lead Turnaround in the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices had a very strong rally today after a very weak opening and an early sharp drop. They turned around on a dime, with financials leading the way.
Most of that was attributed to a positive outlook by Meredith Whitney, leading bank analyst, who said she was bullish on Goldman Sachs (GS) and thought Bank of America (BAC) was the cheapest bank out there.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Do or Die for Stocks / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Slowly and step by step, the markets have eliminated the gains since May first. Sell in May and go away indeed! With little in the way of “juicy” economic data, the markets fretted about the rumors of another stimulus bill (another cup of coffee for that morning jolt?) that may be indicative of a still weak economy.
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Sunday, July 12, 2009
Oversold Stock Market Due a Bounce / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The market is overdue for a bounce.
Short Term - As of Thursday's close the Russell 2000 (R2K or !RUT) had been down for 5 consecutive days for the 1st time since before the early March lows.
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Saturday, July 11, 2009
Stock Market Indices End Mixed to Close Out Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices had a mixed performance at the close today, but not without some volatility, especially in the morning.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 10, 2009
Stock Market Tight, Choppy Nominal Up-Session / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices had a very nominal gaining session today at the end of the day, because of a late sell-off.
The day started out with back and forth choppiness for most of the morning, but it looked like bullish-type consolidations as support held three times in the morning.
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Wednesday, July 08, 2009
Stock Index Trading Midweek Update / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Angelo_Campione
Current Positioning:
SPY: Nil (Cash)
QQQQ: Nil (Cash)
Sunday, July 05, 2009
US GDP and it’s impact on Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Prasoon_Gopal
One of the most important contributors to GDP as a whole is consumer spending. Consumer Spending constitutes over 70% of the GDP. (http://www.hoover.org/research/factsonpolicy/facts/4931661.html). Which means, the more you and me consume, the more money revolves in the country and eventually ticks up the GDP.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
What Happened to the Stock Market New Goldilocks Era? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Sy_Harding
In 1999, when I wrote Riding the Bear – How to Prosper in the Coming Bear Market, I said the market was in a bubble, and that when it burst the subsequent bear market would be one of the worst since that of 1929-32.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Equity Markets Trade Volatile / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: BrewerFX
The Fed ended much of the uncertainty in the financial markets yesterday when it announced that its key lending rate would stay between 0 - .25%, and there would be no additional expansion of its balance sheet through the purchases of government assets and mortgages.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 22, 2009
Will Institutional Investors Start Selliing Stocks ??? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
We often discuss the NYA Index because that is where the big Institutional Investors do most of their trading due to the volume of their transactions.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Stock Market Positive Technicals / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: • While the market was down last week, there was no increase in the number of new lows.
Friday, June 19, 2009
Stock Market Headwinds as Inflation Pressures Remain / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Guy_Lerner
Whether real or perceived, inflationary pressures are a headwind for equities. Data out this week shows year over year changes in both CPI and PPI at five decade lows. Inflation? What inflation?
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Stock Market Downside Follow Through Breaks Some Key Support Levels / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices closed at the lows for the day going away after an early rally attempt failed. It was the second down-day in a row, as the downside follow-through broke some key levels, and the indices had some key rally failures early on near resistance.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Stock Market Summer Seasonal Correction About to Kick Into Gear / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The blue chip indices hit multi month highs last week.
Thursday, June 04, 2009
Thursday Stock Market Snap Back Rally Session / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices had a real good snapback session after yesterday's losses, moving higher from the get-go, consolidating all morning, and then moving higher mid-day. A subsequent mid-afternoon consolidation held support, and they came back up in the last hour to close near the session highs.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 01, 2009
Stock Market Rally Looking Tired, Some Technical Indicators Improving / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Richard_Shaw
The S&P 500 rally is beginning to look a bit tired. The price action is more sideways than up and the volume is declining. That may just be the pause that refreshes, or it may be the pause before a retracement.
Monday, June 01, 2009
Stock Market Climning a Wall of Worry? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
In keeping with the theme from last week – how many straws will it take before the markets finally break? Or is the “wall of worry” that the market is climbing higher still? Adding to the continued housing woes and a confident (but not spending) consumer, we should see General Motors declare bankruptcy this week (which will force the Dow to change some members).
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Saturday, May 16, 2009
Stock Markets Expected to Consolidate After Strong Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: In spite of a pretty rough week for the major indices there were no new lows to speak of on either the NYSE or NASDAQ.
Short Term I have often stated that the secondaries lead both up and down.
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Sunday, May 10, 2009
Stock Market Rate of Accent is Unsustainable, Something Has to Give / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Friday, most of the major indices closed at their highest levels since the early March low.
Short Term
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Saturday, May 09, 2009
Agnostic Approach to the Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Jack_Steiman
This weekend we discuss where we've come from and what the possible road map may look like this weekend. Just an overall review of what's taken place since the March 9th bottom and what we can likely expect in the near term. There are a few potential scenarios and I will discuss them in detail here.
Friday, May 08, 2009
Stock Market Investors Don't Be Fooled by Inflation / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Peter_Schiff
Strike up the band, boys, happy days are here again! Recently released short-term economic data, including unemployment claims, non-farm payrolls, home sales, and business spending, which had been so unambiguously horrific in February and March, are now just garden-variety awful. With the Wicked Witch of Depression now apparently crushed under the house of Obamanomics, the Munchkins of Wall Street have sounded the all clear, pushing the Dow Jones up 25% from its lows. But the premature conclusion of their Lollipop Guild economists, that the crash of 2008/2009 is now a fading memory, is just as delusional as their failure to see it coming in the first place.
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Why Stock Market 2009 is Turning Out to be a Repeat of 1975 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clif_Droke
The impressive recovery in the S&P 500 index to date has been brought to us courtesy of a massive shift in the market’s internal rate of change. This was characterized by the extreme diminution of stocks making the new 52-week lows list on the NYSE since the early March bottom. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 04, 2009
Stock Market Rally Fatigue, the Sell in May and Go Away Mantra? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
The mantra, for lack of a better term, is to sell in May and go away. While over the history of actually tracking this simple investing system it has done rather well, it has suffered some recently. Given the huge run in stocks over the past few months, will cash be a better investment than stocks over the next six months? The lass bad economic and earnings data was enough to push stocks up for the seventh of the past eight weeks and gave investors reasons to hope that the economic downturn may actually end later this year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 04, 2009
Stacking Up Obama's First 100 Days Stock Market Returns Compared to Past Presidents / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Frank_Holmes
With President Obama’s first 100 days coming to an end last week, it’s a good time to measure how the market has responded to his initiatives.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Stock Market Seen Weakening Next Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Friday, the NASDAQ composite (OTC) and S&P mid cap closed at their highest levels since the early March low.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Resilient Stock Market Continues to Act Well / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
This resilient market continues to act well. Despite losses in the morning, it came on in the afternoon in a strong 3-wave rally, took out the rally highs and were at the session highs with about 15 minutes to go, but rolled over into the close to end mixed on the day.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 30, 2009
Stock Markets Blue Monday / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
It was a blue Monday to start off the week, yet another negative Monday in an ongoing bear market after a 2 1/2-week rally. They gave it all back with a sharp gap down at the opening, made lower lows for the next hour or two, but bounced and held 1205, which is key 6-day support on the NDX. The NDX made lower lows but was not confirmed by the SPX, and late in the day they had a snapback, short-covering type rally.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 30, 2009
Short Selling Uptick Rule to Return, But Keep It Simple / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Frank_Holmes
It looks like an uptick rule for short selling will soon be back in place, but let's hope it's not the version being sought by the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange.
The two exchanges and others are pushing a proposal that is overloaded with conditions that must be met before a particular stock becomes subject to the rule, and even then the rule's reach would be limited.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Stock Market Rally Should Take a Breather Next Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: No new lows (0) were recorded on the NYSE last Thursday.
Short Term - Between the low of March 9 and the high of last Thursday:
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Stocks Consolidate in advance of Continuation of Short-term Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: After 2 consecutive down days there has been no build up of new lows.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 16, 2009
Stock Market Afternoon Slide Ends 4 Session Run / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets were rather volatile on Monday. They had three major swings on the NDX and two moves on the SPX, but the bottom line was they moved sharply lower in the afternoon to close near the lows for the day going away in negative territory after being up most of the morning.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 13, 2009
What are the Institutional Stock Market Investors Doing? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
You will lose money if you go against the action of what Institutional Investors are doing.
Many of you subscribe to Investors Business Daily and pay particular attention to the "Accumulation/Distribution ratings" they show on listed stocks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 09, 2009
Another Negative Monday on Wall Street / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had another down day to start the week. I don't know how many consecutive Mondays we've been down. The day did start with a thrust to the upside and they had a nice sharp rally in the first 40 minutes or so that took the indices to the highs for the day, NDX reaching up to 1087 and change and the SPX getting up to over 695. But that was it for the day, and the indices sold off steadily in a 5-weave decline for the rest of the session in a neat orderly channel that closed near the lows for the day.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
Stock Market Disappointing Close / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The market was mixed at the close, but the indices certainly disappointed with a late afternoon sell-off, taking the indices from the plus column into the negative column, except for the Nasdaq 100.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 27, 2009
Stock Indices Close Near The Lows for the Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices had a very volatile session, swinging back and forth at least 12 times, failing on several occasions to breakout to the upside, but also holding early morning support lows for most of the day. But, near the end of the day they came down near the session lows and closed in a very negative fashion, particularly on the S&P 500, which closed right at the morning spike lows around 735 and just pennies off the low.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Late Session Dive Sends Stocks Indices Lower / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets were quite volatile swinging down and then back up again and getting hit at the end of the day to close mostly lower on the session. The day started out with a gap down, and then we had a 5-wave decline that took us to the lows for the session around an hour after the opening. They bounced back, failed at resistance, and then retested, but that was successful. When that occurred the indices started an afternoon rally that was interrupted mid-way with a sharp set-back, with the set-back holding intraday moving averages.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Dow Lags S&P on Stock Market Turnaround Tuesday / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Kingsley_Anderson
Turnaround Tuesday indeed! In all seriousness, if you have followed the market over the last few months, big percentage gains such as we saw today have become the norm. Remember that most huge, rip-your-face-off rallies do in fact occur in bear markets. So the bottom line is, don’t get too excited.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Stock Markets Successful Retest of November Lows? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: We possibly have a successful retest of last November's lows.
Short Term - Most of the broad based indices were down every day last week leaving them over sold and poised for a rally.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 20, 2009
Nasdaq Leads Stock Markets in Mixed Trading Session / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had some interesting volatility to end the week on options expiration day. They opened with a sharp gap lower, bounced and then made lower lows by mid-day and new lows for the entire pullback, reaching an extremely oversold condition on a short-term basis. By mid-day they started to turn and triggered a strong rally in early afternoon, which extended to new highs for the session with about an hour an a half to go. They then pulled back down and gave back about 50% of the rally , retested the intraday moving averages, but held and bounced back into the close.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 20, 2009
U.S. Economy 4th Quarter 2009 Recovery, SIVs to the Rescue? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
We apologize for the tardiness and brevity of this update. We have been on the peas-and-chicken circuit for the better part of two months, which has consumed much of our time and energy. A lot has transpired since our January update. Congress passed and the president signed a $787 billion fiscal stimulus program. Treasury Secretary Geithner, after paying his back taxes, changed the name of the financial institution rescue program from TARP to FSP (Financial Stability Program). The Obama administration announced a $75 billion program to facilitate the modification of at-risk home mortgages. And the Commerce Department released its first guesstimate of Q4:2008 GDP. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Stock Market Early Rally Attempt Fails at Resistance and Sells Off / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had an early rally out of gate but failed at key overhead resistance , and that was about it. They had a 3-wave decline and sharp one until late morning, tried to bounce around mid-day, failed at resistance, and then sold off in a steady, downward choppy fashion into the close.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Stock Market Equilibertarianism / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Oxbury_Research
The “Let's get Mikey” Market - There used to be a television commercial for Life brand cereal that we enjoyed immensely. It's worth a brief discussion.
The ad featured a trio of brothers sitting around the breakfast table, trying to determine who was going to try a new cereal. Neither of the older brothers had the nerve to give it a go (“I ain't gonna try it; you try it.”). But the youngest, Mikey, could always be convinced. “He'll eat anything!”
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Financials Lead Stocks in Mixed Session / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market did have some volatility on Wednesday, but the indices ended narrowly mixed. The day started out with a little move up off the opening followed by a sharp turnaround lower. They spiked down and made a new low on the Nasdaq 100, but did not on the S&P 500, which resulted in a snapback rally. But the rally failed at the 2 day declining tops lines, which resulted in a much sharper afternoon slide that took the market to the lows for the day with about an hour and a half to go.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Stock Market Sells Off on Disapointing Banking Sector Bailout Plan / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
I am spending the next few days in Europe on a short business trip. First stop is Dublin where the temperature is icy, the mood is dour, property prices are plunging, the queues for jobless claims are five hours long, the soon-to-be-unemployed are holding protest strikes, and the banks are on the edge of a financial precipice. Yes, it may be a movie with different actors, but the plot is the same as in many other countries. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 09, 2009
Stock Market Consolidates Ahead of Bailout Plan News / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices had a consolidation day ahead of tomorrow's release of the details of the bailout plan. The day started out with a move down that held support. They then rallied to new 3 day rally highs, and backed and filled in a downward slope until mid-afternoon when they tested the lows. That was successful, and then they bounced back into the positive side on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 by the end of the day, but drifted lower in the last 20-30 minutes.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 07, 2009
Stock Market Blows Off Bad Unemployment News / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Kingsley_Anderson
The unemployment numbers were the worst in 35 years. Horrible news, right? Clearly, the economy is a shambles, right? What is the market's reaction? Why, a rally ensues, of course.
Conventional wisdom is that bad news will cause a market decline. However, when the market is so beaten down, bad news fails to have the same effect. The stock market is a forward looking animal. It does not live in the now, it focuses on the future. Based on Friday's action, the notion of a bottom forming is more plausible.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 07, 2009
Stock Market Ends Week with Solid Gain / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
It was a very strong session for the indices and a terrific ending to the week, as the indices surged from the get-go, rallied all morning, backed off mid-afternoon, but came on into the close and closed in a very strong manner to end the week with a bang.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 06, 2009
Stock Market Negative Start Gives Way to Positive Up-day / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets actually had a positive up-day, although they started off very negatively.
The day started out with pre-market futures sharply lower. They gapped down and went sharply lower in the first 20-30 minutes and ended the decline at what turned out to be their session lows, holding 1200 support on the Nasdaq 100 and 820 on the S&P 500.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 05, 2009
Which Way Will the Stock Market Break, Bull or Bear? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
When the Dow Jones Industrial Index broke below the lower rising trendline of the rising wedge as shown in the chart above, it gave a serious signal. (Chart courtesy Bigcharts.com) Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 04, 2009
Stock Market DJIA Back Above Critical Support Level / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Kingsley_Anderson
After being a laggard as of late, the DJIA outperformed both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. In addition, the DJIA is back above 8000 and support. However, volume was relatively light.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
Stock Market Promising Bottoming Formations Develop in Mixed Session / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices today ended mixed with strength in the Nasdaq. The day started out with a gap down, and quickly reached the lows for the day within a few minutes. They backed and filled and then had a very sharp move after the better than expected ISM data report came out around 10 o'clock. They then got a mid-morning back-off, and then another rally that took them to new highs at key overhead resistance just under 1200 NDX and 830 S&P 500. A sharp pullback took out the earlier pullback lows but held the earlier gap lows intraday, and then the indices had a strong late surge that slightly took out overhead resistance but failed to follow through, and then they backed off into the close.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 02, 2009
S&P500 Holds Up Whilst DJIA Breaks Its Support Up-Trendline / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Kingsley_Anderson
The slow grind on the indexes continues. While the S&P 500 and DJIA finished off their lows, losses still occurred. The rally that many expected in January failed to materialize. Unfortunately, there is not even a hint as to when one may occur. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 01, 2009
Stock Markets Record Worst January Ever! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Non existent. The S&P 500 (SPX) finished its worst January ever, down 8.57%.
During the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle, since 1928, the SPX has been up 62% of the time, in January during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle, with an average gain of 1.7%. Out of the 8 times the SPX has been down in January during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle all but one turned out to be the beginning of a down year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 30, 2009
Stock Market Rally Reverses Lower / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices had a definite down day on Thursday, reversing the rally as they started out with a very negative pre-market, with lower futures. The markets gapped lower, rallied back to the gaps and failed, and then rolled over in stair step fashion for the rest of the day. A mid-afternoon rally also failed at resistance, with the S&P 500 closing very near the lows for the day.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Stock Market Punches Through Resistance / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Kingsley_Anderson
So much for resistance. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ blew through resistance levels, including their respective 50 day moving averages. The DJIA was the laggard, unable to breach overhead resistance and the 50 dma. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Underlying Stock Market Trend Conditions / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
You are looking at the highway and see a car moving swiftly, efficiently, and smoothly down the road. You think in my youngest son's vernacular and say, "Wow, that's a sweet car".
After going two hundred feet down the road, the car backfires, sputters, and stops.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Stock Market Key Overhead Resistance Gives Way in Bullish Session / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices had a fantastic bullish session as pre-market futures were sharply higher based on the government news about bank corporations that absorb bad debt. In any case, the indices opened sharply higher, backed and filled for the first 45 minutes or so, and then started a strong advance that lasted all morning into mid-afternoon, reaching as high as 1245 the Nasdaq 100, at that point up nearly 32 points. The S&P 500 spiked up near 878, up 31 points. They did have a sharp setback in the last 1 1/2 hours, but in the last 30 minutes took back most of those losses.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Stock Market Quiet Pre-FOMC Trading Session / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices had what we expected, a non-volatile and somewhat quiet pre-FOMC session, although gains were had at the end. The day started out with a move up. They backed off, held intraday price and moving average support, and went to new session highs, testing yesterday's rally highs on both indices, but fell short, and then backed off mid-afternoon to retest the rising 3-day trendlines, which held again. Then they moved back to once again retest the highs, but they were not able to punch through, as resistance was futile today and they backed off into the close.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Stock Market Narrow Gains to Start the Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices ended with a plus day to start the week, which was different than we've seen of late. Today the indices started out strongly and within an hour were at the session highs and secondary key formidable resistance near the 1200-02 zone on the Nasdaq 100 and the 850-55 zone on the S&P 500. They failed to break through, backed off and backed and filled in what looked like orderly and potentially bullish consolidation patterns, in anticipation of a late morning or afternoon rally try, but when that did not materialize, they rolled over rather hard by mid-day. After lunch they clawed their way back to secondary resistance but failed and rolled back into the close and bounced.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 26, 2009
Stock Market Trend During Presidential First Year / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Oxbury_Research
A New Era: But Probably Not The One We Hope For - With the inauguration of President Obama, the world feels that genuine change is in the air. All the policy and economic horrors of the previous administration are soon to be washed away. And before we know it, things will be back to "business as usual" and the great American Dream will soar onward and upward to unseen new heights. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 26, 2009
Stock Market Investor Sentiment Remains at Neutral / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Guy_Lerner
The "dumb money" sentiment indicator remains neutral on the equity markets, and the "smart money" remains bearish. It should be noted that this is the seventh week in a row where the "dumb money" is neutral, and this is not a scenario that is generally supportive of higher prices especially with prices on the S&P500 under their 40 week moving average. The ideal situation for higher equity prices would be for the "smart money" to be bullish and the "dumb money" bearish (i.e., bull signal). Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Stock Market Bulls and Bears Lick Their Wounds / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Kingsley_Anderson
Once again, a lot of back and forth action occurred on the indexes, but not real movement. After the most recent sell-off, the market has begun to move in an ever-smaller price range. For those on either side of the spectrum, there are plenty of arguments as to why a new bull market is being born, or the bear market will continue. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Stock Market Oversold into Seasonally Strong Period / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The market is oversold going into a seasonally strong period.
Short Term - After 3 consecutive down weeks the market is oversold.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 23, 2009
Stock Market, What's Next? Another Leg Down, or Rally? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Most investors only look at what is happening to the "Broad Market".
For instance, tracking the action of an index such as the S&P or the NASDAQ is an observation of broad-market action because you are looking at the composite action of all the stocks within each index.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Stock Market Still Has A Pulse / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Kingsley_Anderson
The market took back a large chunk of what it lost yesterday. However, considering the losses that have stretched over almost two weeks, the market is still under water. On the positive side, both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have established a lower low-for the time being. Both are also currently sitting right above support levels. For the S&P 500, support is in the 800 area and resistance is in the 850 area. For the DJIA, support is located in the 8000 area while it faces resistance at around 8280. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Stock Market Indices Snapback in Significant Turnaround Session / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had a strong opening, a tough and steep retest that held, and then some mid-day back and forth vacillations, at which point the direction looked in doubt. Two or three mid-day tests of support held, and then they started a very strong rally that started feeding on itself spurred by apparent short covering, and in the last hour in particular spiked up right into the close with sharp gains.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Dow Jones Stock Market Forecast 2009 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Looking forward a week is hard enough let alone 12 months, Still, the in-depth analysis of October 2008 -
Stocks Bear Market Long-term Investing Strategy that accurately forecast a 20% corrective rally (that appears to have terminated) and a subsequent stocks bear market low in Mid 2009, with a strategy of scaling into the market at the rate of 10% of funds allocated to stock holdings per each month that the market is within 10% of its lows. The bear market rally following the November lows has been weak, which does not bode well for stocks, as the hope associated with the Obama rally appears to have evaporated.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 19, 2009
Stock Market Inauguration Rally Should Be Handled With Care / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Kingsley_Anderson
There has been much talk about an “Obama Rally” taking place in January. Traders should be careful when entering long positions in the short-term, particularly on Tuesday. My contention is not that a rally will NOT happen by the end of the month. Only time will tell. Right now, the market is oversold, so it is very possible that a bounce will occur sometime in the near future. What I am saying is that any rally that begins on Tuesday should be taken with a grain of salt. There are three reasons why I would be reluctant to participate in such a move.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Stock Market Bulls Hold The Line, For Now / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Kingsley_Anderson
It looks like the other shoe dropped this week. Just when everyone thought that we may have heard the last of the financial sector's woes, more bad news hit the wires. The question is how many more shoes are left? Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Obama Will Fail to Lift Stock Markets Next Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Money supply is growing at an extreme rate and that should help the equities market.
Short Term There is an indicator developed by Joseph Granville called Net Field Trend (NFT). NFT is the number of issues in an index with a negative field trend subtracted from those in a positive field trend. The field trend is determined by looking at On Balance Volume (OBV) of each issue. OBV is a running total of volume of an issue added to the total on up days and subtracted from the total on down days.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Stock Market Volatile Turnaround Session / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices had a volatile session, plunging at the opening and reaching new 6-7 day pullback lows in the morning. They bounced in what looked like bear-flag fashion, and sure enough did roll over, with the S&P 500 taking out the lows, but the NDX did not at that point. That set up a positive divergence, resulting in a very sharp rally that took the NDX from 1143 to 1193, about a 50-point rally inside of the next couple hours. The S&P 500 went from 817 to 851.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Stock Market Indices Plunge and Close Sharply Lower / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
Quite a negative session today. The indices plunged from the get-go as pre-market futures were sharply lower. They went lower and sharply so all morning, hit the morning lows after about an hour and a half, and then bounced around for several ours in consolidation mode. They did try to break out mid-afternoon and made slightly higher rally highs, but couldn't follow through overhead resistance and rolled over to new 6 day lows on the Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 tested the lows but didn't confirm the NDX downside move, and they then both bounced into the close.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Insitutional Investors Stock Index Trading Range Breakout Imminent / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
This Friday, it will be 6 full weeks that the Institutional Index has stayed within its trading range ... will it make it that long?
It was exactly one week ago when we showed you the 60 minute Point & Figure chart for the Institutional "core holdings" index. Last week's chart is posted first, followed by this week's chart.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 12, 2009
Stock Markets Another Negative Start to the Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had another very negative start to the week, much like we've seen over the last few months. The day started out with negative pre market futures, but they weren't too bad. However, The market just opened lower and kept going down.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 12, 2009
Stock Market Index Sector Weightings, the Anatomy of a Bubble / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Q1_Publishing
Good Things Come to Those Who “Weight” - There's nothing like a bubble to make the markets really exciting. You can make a lot of money in bubbles…if you get out in time (emphasis on the “if”).
It's not very easy though.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 12, 2009
US Stock Market Index Open Interest Put / Call Ratio Analysis / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Captain_Hook
Well, Santa has come and gone and provided those who bet on a Christmas time rally a nice return, the best ever in fact with respect to the broads. After such an outcome, it's traditional to see a pullback to work-off an overbought condition when the majority of traders return from holidays, so don't be surprised if the broad markets fall early this week. Given continued high and rising US index open interest put / call ratios however, updated here for your review, any weakness in coming days should be temporary, with further squeezing into expiry only two-weeks away now anticipated in knowing speculators have turned increasingly bearish. A review of Figures 1 through 7 in the attached above is the basis of this conclusion.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Stock Market Investor Sentiment: Sell Strength (Again!) / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Guy_Lerner
The "dumb money" and "smart money" sentiment indicators are neutral on the equity markets. While a neutral reading is not particularly telling regarding market direction, it should be noted that this is the fifth week in a row where the "dumb money" is neutral, and this is not a scenario that is generally supportive of higher prices especially with prices on the S&P500 under their 40 week moving average. The ideal situation for higher equity prices would be for the "smart money" to be bullish and the "dumb money" bearish (i.e., bull signal).Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Stock Market Selloff Relieves Overbought Pressure / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Although all of the major indices were down substantially last week, new lows hit their lowest levels since November 2006.
Short Term New highs expand in strong markets. Recently we have seen the lowest levels of new highs since late 1987 when there were about half as many issues traded on the NYSE and 20% fewer on the NASDAQ than there are currently.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Stocks Close Near Lows of the Day and Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices had a quite negative finish not only to the session but the week, and they went out with a 4-day downtrend, near the lows for the day, particularly on the Dow and S&P 500. The day started out with a very sharp move lower after the employment report. They bounced around and then edged up slowly in bear-flag fashion for the next 4-5 hours. In the last hour or so when they failed at the declining tops resistance going back 4 days, they rolled over in a 3-wave decline and closed at the lows for the afternoon on the Nasdaq and the lows for the week on the S&P 500 and Dow.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 09, 2009
Rydex Asset Data: Stock Market Leveraged Bulls v. Leveraged Bears / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Guy_Lerner
I have presented a lot of data recently suggesting an intermediate term top for equities, and the weakness in prices this past week seems to be consistent with that view. Just as investors begin to embrace the hope that better times are coming, it's "bam" back to reality. This is still a bear market - sell hope, buy fear. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Stock Markets Strong Sell Off Breaks Support Level / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market had a strong sell-off today on negative individual company and economic news. The market indices gapped sharply lower as the futures were down sharply before the opening. They then bounced back a couple times to test resistance and failed both times, and in the afternoon as a result of that they rolled over steadily and sharply, reaching new 2-day pullback lows under 1230 on the Nasdaq 100 and under 902 on the S&P 500.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Stock Markets Find Some Reasons To Be Cheerful / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: PaddyPowerTrader
U.S. equities managed to keep their head above water yesterday despite a profit warning from Bank of America (recall they now own Merrill Lynch and Countrywide) and very soft home sales and factory orders . So why the new found tentative optimism? The bull's case is that stocks are clearly benefiting from: Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 05, 2009
Overbought Stock Market Yields to Profit-Taking / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had a reasonable consolidation day, but ended lower on the session, due to profit-taking from a very overbought condition. Although at mid-day they did reach new rally highs, a pullback in the last couple hours pulled them back into negative territory.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 05, 2009
Stock Market Clean Breakout Higher / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Jack_Steiman
No denying it when it takes place. Breakout and run which is what we saw today. The Market said good bye to 915/8857 and 1607 on the Sp, Dow and Nas respectively. Those 50 day exponential moving averages which were the major road blocks to higher levels were bulled over. The bears can make a good case that there was no volume and when it does come back in on Monday we'll head right back down. that may be the case but there's a few things going on here that argues against it. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 04, 2009
Overbought Stock Market Expected to Correct Lower / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: By current fashion, a bull or bear market is defined as a major index moving 20% off its low or high. By that definition, we are in a bull market with every major index except the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJIA) more that 20% off its November low. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was 19.6% off its low as of Friday's close, the S&P 500 (SPX) 23.8% off its low, the NASDAQ Composite (OTC) 24%, the Russell 2000 (R2K) 31.3% and leading the way, the Value Line Arithmetic up 39.4%. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 02, 2009
Stock Market What's in Store for 2009? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
If you have been listening to CNBC or Bloomberg, you have probably picked up on a "growing expectation" that we will come out of the recession in the 3rd. Quarter of this year. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Stock Market Santa Clause Rally Underway Sort-of / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The Santa Clause rally commenced on schedule.
Short Term - Most of the major indices have not been up or down for more than two consecutive days since late November and they were up both Wednesday and Friday of last week. So Monday is likely to be down. 2009 is the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle and the 1st trading day of the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle has been down every year since 1985, however, 1981, the last time the market was up, the 1st trading day of the year fell on a Friday as it does this year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 26, 2008
When Can We Expect A Sustainable Stock Market Price Move? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Guy_Lerner
Most market participants seem to focus on picking that elusive bottom. You here it on CNBC all the time and just about everywhere you go after the market has a good pop off its lows: Is this the bottom?Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 22, 2008
Stock Market Late Snapback Rally Pares Losses / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had another negative session to start the week. They were down for most of the session and stair-stepped lower until about a half hour to go. Then they staged a very strong snapback rally, taking back half the losses on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and three-quarters of the losses on the Dow.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Stock Market Santa Rally Due to Begin / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: A Santa Clause rally is due to begin Wednesday.
Short Term - Seasonal considerations overwhelm everything else.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Stock Market Consolidation Day Ends Lower in Late Sell-Off / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had a consolidation day, but ended on the downside. They were lower in the morning, rallied mid-day, and then backed and filled into the close, but in the last 10 minutes took a quick hit to close near the afternoon lows.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Stock Market Santa Rally Lacks Technical Support / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
An Institutional Investor market perspective, and what our New Lows model is saying about a rally ...
Lot's of excitement yesterday. Investors were optimistic and buying on the Fed's announcement. However, those longer term, Institutional Investors were not quite as ecstatic as the average investor.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Stock Market Consolidation Day Ends Lower in Late Sell-Off / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had a consolidation day, but ended on the downside. They were lower in the morning, rallied mid-day, and then backed and filled into the close, but in the last 10 minutes took a quick hit to close near the afternoon lows.
Net on the day the Dow was down just under 100, down 99.80 at 8824 and change. The S&P 500 down 8 3/4 at 904.42, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 17.63 1225.86. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) gave back just a fraction, 0.35 to 221.16.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Tuesday's Spectacular Bullish FOMC Session for Stocks / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had a spectacular session, starting with a gap up. They ran early, consolidated, and then ran again mid-morning. At that point they went into a narrow trading range ahead of the FOMC announcement. The FOMC elected to drop rates by 3/4 of a percent to a 1/4, and Wall Street liked it. The indices popped sharply, with the NDX in 15 minutes running from about 1210 to 1230. The S&P 500 jumped from about 884 to 899. They then backed and filled for another 25-30 minutes, and then exploded again, taking out the highs and running up sharply. They did get a late pullback, but in the last 10 minutes bounced sharply and closed at the highs for the day on the Dow and S&P 500, with the NDX trailing just a bit.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
The Birth of a New Stocks Bull Market? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clif_Droke
Blood in the streets all over the place - As the bear market ends and a new cyclical bull market begins with the bottoming of the 6-year cycle, we continue see the lagging effects of this year’s seismic volatility on almost a daily basis. For although the stock market price low has almost certainly been made and the 6-year cycle is starting to assert itself on the upside, more and more investors have capitulated to the emotional exhaustion the previous months have subjected them to.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 15, 2008
Stock Markets Start Week on a Down Note / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The market started the week off with a down note. They were lower from the get-go and then had a rather sharp sell-off, particularly on the Nasdaq 100 that took it from over 1200 down to the 1170 area. Mid-day they bounced back and forth, tried to stabilize, did roll over and take out the lows, setting new session lows late in the session. But there was no downside follow-through, and they snapped back very sharply, taking the NDX from 1167 to 1192, or 25 points in about a half hour. The S&P 500 went from 858 to about 874 over the same period of time. In the last 15 minutes they backed off again.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Stock Market Rally Lacks Follow Through Strength / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: New lows have continued to decline.
Short Term - On October 10 88% of the issues traded on the NYSE hit new lows, the highest percentage, by almost double, ever recorded. The high percentage of issues hitting new lows makes unlikely we will see significant numbers of new highs any time soon.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Stock Market Hit by Afternoon Sell-Off! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had a solid morning and reached the 4-day declining tops lines by late morning, stalled there and consolidated bullishly. But, after 3 or 4 failed attempts at breaking out they rolled over, broke short-term support, and then took out important secondary support and had a very sharp sell-off late in the day. The market bounced around in the last half hour, but for the most part closed near the lows for the day.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Stock Market Indices Consolidate as Prelude to Upside Breakout / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had three distinct parts of the session. They were up in the morning, down mid-day and back up late in the session to close with gains for the day. Modest gains, but gains nevertheless. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Stock Market Turnaround Tuesday! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had a turnaround Tuesday. Despite the fact the futures were lower and the markets opened down sharply, they held support and rallied very sharply back, taking the Nasdaq 100 up to 1251 and change, a new multi-week rally high. However, the S&P did not take out yesterday's highs at that point, and when they pulled back and consolidated and then broke support the indices went sharply lower to test yesteday's lows on the Nasdaq 100, took them out on the S&P but couldn’t get the NDX to confirm.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Leadership Stocks Ratio Turning Bullish? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Is the Leadership Stock Ratio on the cusp of going positive?
In the stock market, it can be said that there are two subsets of stocks ... Leadership stocks and Broad Market stocks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Stock Markets at Critical Crossroads- Yorba TV Show / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Today all the markets are at a crossroads. Either we continue going up or the market sells off in what may be the largest decline yet. So, let’s get busy and explain the choices the market must make.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Bullish Stock Market Charts for S&P, Nasdaq, BKK and Gold / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Shedlock
Here are some bullish looking charts we are looking at. The first two show Ellliot Wave counts that we have been tracking for some time. For some background theory on Elliott Wave, please see my October 10 post S&P 500 Crash Count . Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Stock Market's Spectacular Start to the Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
A spectacular start to the week, as the futures were sharply higher before the opening, and as a result the indices and many stocks gapped up at the opening. The indices had a sharp morning rally which hit its morning high about 75 min after the opening . They then went into a downward sloping multi-hour consolidation . When an afternoon nominal downside break failed to follow through, they turned around and rallied strongly, moving to new session and 3 week highs, with the Nasdaq 100 reaching the 1237 range and the S&P 500 getting up to near 919. A late pullback brought them back sharply, although in the last few minutes they bounced again. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 06, 2008
Investors Selling Safe Treasury Bonds to Buy Higher Risk Equties / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Last week we wrote about the Lehman 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) as an
indicator of flight to safety, which we believed was starting to wane. On
Friday the TLTs, which move inversely to yields, violated an important
initial support plateau at 111.45, while equities rallied, the first such
signal that some more money is coming out of the safety of ZERO return,
seeking "a bit more risk."
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 06, 2008
Stock Market Technicals Point to Santa Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Downside volume has been fading quickly.
Short Term Downside volume and new lows are the best indicators of bottoms.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 04, 2008
Stock Market Short Term Support & Trend Lines Broken / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices had what appeared to be a constructive morning, as they moved back and forth in a fairly narrow & orderly manner, getting several swings that were unable to break out or down, until the afternoon when they ultimately rolled over hard. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Stock Market Shakes Off Mid-Day Decline to Close Higher / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
It was another volatile session, very similar to yesterday, except for the late afternoon rally. The indices opened lower, bounced around, and then took off in a very sharp rally that took the NDX from 1105 to 1158, a 53-point rally inside of an hour and a half. The S&P 500 went from about 828 to about 864 in that time frame. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
The Important Connection Between Stock Market New Lows and Relative Strength / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
What can the NYA New Lows vs. the S&P's Relative Strength tell you about the market?
We have discussed the NYA "New Daily Lows" vs. the market many times before. Basically, when New Lows fall to below 50 to 28 per day, the market faces a condition where investors have pretty much stopped the big selling and have decided to hold on to the stocks they are still in.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Systemic Risks Means this is a Traders Market / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Christopher_Quigley
The latest valueline report makes very sombre reading: "The economy is now in a deepening slump, which is now characterized by issues of viability in the troubled auto sector, by the need for a monumental bailout of ailing behemoth Citi-group, and by further reversions on the housing market, where existing home sales resumed their decline in October and prices fell by the most on record. Given this dour backdrop, it is not surprising that we expect the downwardly revised .5% decline in third quarter gross domestic product to be followed by a materially large 3%-5% set back in GDP in the final three months of the year. The news is likely to get worse before it gets better." Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Stock Market Indices Get Strong Finish to Finish near Highs in Volatile Session / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had a volatile session, but a got very strong finish, closing at the highs for the day on some of the indices and near them on the others.
The day started out with positive market futures, but they had come way off their early pre-market highs. They opened positive but then sold off immediately to retest yesterday's late lows, but held there. When that happened, they staged a very strong rally in the morning that took the Nasdaq 100 from about 1192 to 1137, about a 45-point rally.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Inverted Head and Shoulders Bottom Base for GE / Companies / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Don't tell anyone, but the 2-week General Electric (GE) pattern resembles an inverted head and shoulders base. If GE hurdles and sustains above both 17.20 and then 17.70 (which represent the neckline of the pattern AND the Sep-Dec resistance line), then we should expect a potent upside continuation towards a minimum target of 20.30/60, and perhaps to 21.90-22.30 thereafter, to fulfill its upside potential.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Major Stock Market Test Underway / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
... because a formidable 6 month resistance is now being tested ...
Today, we will share the chart of our "Net Daily Difference between the Very Strong to Very Weak" stocks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Stock Market Rally Ends With a BANG! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The rally abruptly ended today and with a bang, as the indices opened sharply lower on very negative pre-market futures. They dropped precipitously in the morning, bounced around mid-day to try to consolidate, and even tried a mid-day rally. When that failed they sold them off in earnest, as the indices cascaded in the last hour, the Nasdaq 100 dropping from 1128 to 1093 just in the last hour alone, and the S&P 500 dropping from 850 to 815 over that same period of time and closing not far from there.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 01, 2008
Nasdaq Retraces 50% of Upmove / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) are pressing towards a 50% giveback of the prior 5-session upmove, at 27.25, which is the next significant support plateau beneath the 11/25 pullback low of 27.52. If 27.25 does not contain the selling pressure, then we should expect downside continuation that fills the gap area from 11/24 in the 27.00-26.65 target zone.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 01, 2008
Stocks Bear Market Rally Continues During December / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend -
Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over earlier than anticipated and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2012- 2014.
SPX: Intermediate trend - intermediate low may have been reached in November, but this remains to be confirmed. There is good possibility that January 2009 will bring a new low, or at least a test of the lows.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Stocks Head into Seasonally Second Strongest Month of the Year / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: New lows all but disappeared over the past week.
Short Term In an up trending market the down days give you the best information. We have not had a down day in the past week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Stock Market Patterns Suggest More Upside / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Jack_Steiman
I'll keep things brief tonight as the holiday shortened week didn't do much to change my outlook from Wednesday. What appears to be setting up is the exact opposite of what was happening in the down trend for several months. The 60's would flash amazingly strong positive divergences along with very oversold conditions and the market could barely rally. The 60's are now very overbought with some strong negative divergences out there but it's not mattering. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Dow Jones Three Up Days In A Row! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: PaddyPowerTrader
After the helter skelter of the previous two days of headline-grabbing gains, the stocks markets went about their business in a more sedate manner yesterday. They still finished above water , extending their winning streak to three. Equities were buoyed by Hank and Ben's latest trick, direct intervention into the frozen mortgage markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 24, 2008
Stock Market Excellent Follow-Through Session / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
We had an excellent follow-through day to the rally on Friday. The indices gapped up at the opening, did have a quick pullback but held, and then came on very strongly. By late morning we had a pretty sharp pullback for about 20 minutes, but they held intraday moving averages, bounced and then made successively higher lows and higher high all afternoon until they finally spiked up with about 15 minutes to go at the session highs. At that point the Dow was up nearly 550 points, but they pulled back sharply over a 10- minute period, and with about 5 minutes to go, jumped back again.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Stock Market Technicals Point to Strong Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: In the 1930's, the last time we saw declines of this magnitude in the same time frame, the rallies that followed took the S&P 500 (SPX) up 20% - 46%.
Short Term As of Thursday's close the SPX was down over 40% in less than 3 months, a rare occurrence. From its August 87 high to its October crash low the SPX was down 33.2%. Late 1937 was the last time the SPX fell more than 40% in 3 months, 71 years ago.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Stock Market Sharp Rebound to End Very Negative Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets astounded investors with a late very sharp rally that exploded into the close with a huge gain today. After backing and filling and making new multi-year lows on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, they retested in the afternoon, and when they failed to take out the lows substantially and follow through to the downside, they turned them around with abandon and rallied 600 points in the last hour to close up 494 on the Dow. The S&P 500 rallied from 741 to 801, closing at 800, up 47 1/2. The Nasdaq 100 rallied from 1019 to 1085 and closed right at the high for the day going away, up 49 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) jumped from 167 to 180, closing right there, up 8.90.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Stock Markets Last-Hour Rally Brings Indices into Plus Column / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets surprised late in the session after another nasty session, and ended with a late afternoon last-hour rally that brought all the indices back into positive territory except for the SOXX.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Dow Jones Stock Index Pivots to the Upside / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The overall pattern in the ProShares Ultralong Dow 30 ETF (AMEX: DDM) carved out off of last Thursday's low at 27.34 indicates that the initial upleg of a powerful recovery rally phase started at 27.34 and ended Friday at 34.23. All of the action since then represents a deep correction of the initial upleg. As long as today's secondary low at 28.50 contains additional, forthcoming weakness, my extreme near-term work is "warning" me to expect a pivot upside reversal that hurdles today's high at 30.81 on the way to a confrontation with the near-term Nov resistance line, now at 32.10. (1:15 pm EST, 29.33).Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Stock Market Showing Signs of a Tradeable Low / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend -
Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over earlier than anticipated and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2012-2014.
SPX: Intermediate trend - There is a target of about 795-800 for the ending of the current phase of the decline. This target should be met next week. However, one cannot say for certain that a reversal will lead to a lasting rally.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Stock Market Strong Bottom Indicators Supporting a Sustained Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The bottom indicators have been moving sharply upward suggesting a high likelihood of a rally lasting at least several weeks.
Short Term - Many indicators are coincident, i.e. they mirror what is happening. Oscillators and momentum indicators can be misleading because of their tendency to revert to 0 or neutral. The recent activity in volume indicators has been confusing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Where Will the Stock Market Go Next? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
This chart is part of a Multi-Indicator Model that we post on our paid website every day. There are actually 5 Indicators on the chart, and we will show two of them this morning.
The chart below compares the market action of the New York Stock Exchange Index to the trend of the Declining Volume on the NYSE, and a C-RSI (Relative Strength) on the NYSE.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 14, 2008
Stock Markets Plunge Near the Close / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
We certainly had a topsy-turvy, volatile session today with the indices moving in three distinct waves on Friday. In the morning they gapped lower at the opening and moved down steadily until they reached yesterday's late reaction lows just under 1180 on the Nasdaq 100 and down around the 870 range on the S&P 500. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Stock Indices Explode Higher in the Mother of All Rallies! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The mother of all rallies occurred in the afternoon as the indices exploded in very strong 5-wave rally that left them at or very near the highs for the day going away on the close in a major turnaround rally. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Stock Market Downside Follow Through / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices had another down day following up on yesterday's losses, but also had a lot of volatility. The day started out with a gap down on negative pre-market futures. A steep slide in the morning stabilized by mid-morning, and for the next 3-4 hours the indices moved in a sideways configuration and then exploded out of it in early afternoon, taking the NDX from about 1211 to 1249. The S&P 500 in that period went from 887 to about 917. A sharp 3-wave decline ensued, followed by a late bounce back into the close. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
What are Leadership Stocks Telling Stock Market Investors / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
The inside story of what Leadership stocks have been telling investors ...
On November 6th., we posted an in depth study and explanation of the Leadership Stock Ratio . See this link for the study and explanation: Leadership stock Ratio explained . This morning, we will look at a little different twist on the Leadership Stock Ratio .
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Stock Market Indices Reverse Opening Up-Gaps / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had what I would call an ugly day today and a nasty way to start the week. They weren't down tremendously, but they ended far from where they started.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 10, 2008
Stock Market Catches a Bottom / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Jack_Steiman
The market is not acting as if it's ready to break down. A good catch by the bulls at the very bottom of the current triangles. I mentioned last night that the daily charts were strong and thus it can come as no surprise that we were higher today. It's so easy to say that the past two days spell doom for the markets but those daily's, being as strong as they are, were able to stop the bears from breaking this market down right at the bottom of those back and forth triangles. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Obama Victory Flashing a Stock Market Buy Signal / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Welcome to Wall Street, Barack Obama. His victory signaled a change in US political direction, but the biggest election day rally ever – a surge of 4.1% in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday – was quickly overshadowed by the grim realities of the worsening economic and earnings picture, resulting on Wednesday and Thursday in the S&P 500's biggest two-day loss (-10.0%) since 1987.
Mr Obama gave his first press conference as President-elect on Friday afternoon, summarizing a discussion he had had with his economic advisory team. He pledged to confront the US's economic crisis “head on” and said he wanted to see “a rescue plan for the middle class” that would include a new fiscal stimulus package. The week closed on a positive note as a late rush of buying on Friday left the stock market indices higher for the day, although still in the red for the week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 09, 2008
How Wars and Stock Market Rallies are Won / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Imagine a war where the battalion leader says, "Charge". The battalion moves forward, but as they do, they turn around and see the leader retreating. What do they do next? First, fear grips them as they know the leader is running from what he perceives as a grave danger. At best, the battalion loses their fervor for winning the charge, or retreats like their leader. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Stocks Technicals Point to Sustainable Rally Underway / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The bottom indicators have been moving sharply upward suggesting a high likelihood of a rally lasting at least several weeks.
Short Term - Downside volume has been drying up.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Stock Market Indices Spike Higher in Last Hour For Strong Close / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
We had a volatile session, but it ended well with the indices not far off the highs for the day. In fact, the S&P 500 closed very near the highs for the day and it ended positively in what appeared to be late pre-weekend short-covering that affected the market in a positive note, and closed strongly particularly in the last 20-30 minutes. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Stock Bull Market Being Born? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Zeal_LLC
With the election of a new President, it was an important week for the financial markets. Whether you were part of the 53% of Americans who voted for Obama or the 47% who voted against him, you've got to be thankful this bitter campaign has ended. A peaceful regime change is a great blessing that should not be overlooked.
The very next morning it was back to business as usual for the financial markets. Countless traders collated and analyzed all the information available to them to continue trying to best-position their capital for the future they believe is most probable. And prevailing sentiment was definitely morose. No matter who won on Tuesday, today's serious market and economic problems were going to linger.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 06, 2008
Larry Edelson- Dow Stocks Bear Market Ended in October at 7884 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
We have a lot of ground to cover today. So forgive me if this issue jumps around a bit. But there's just not enough space in this column for me to cover everything in as much detail as I would like to. Yet there's so much money to be made in the next few months that it's mandatory I get my views out on the following topics, even if I have to be brief: Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 06, 2008
Stock Markets Post Election Plunge / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices had an extremely negative post-election reaction, gapping down at the opening, on pre-market futures being sharply lower. They then tried to bounce, much more successfully on the S&P 500 and Dow, with the Nasdaq unable to get through the intraday moving averages, and they rolled over sharply in the morning, bounced in the afternoon, and then rolled over again even more sharply late in the session. They had a late quick bounce, but in the last 10 minutes rolled over sharply once again to close at the lows for the day.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Stock Market Index Breaks Key Short-term Support Level / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) has broken key micro support at 98.30/00, which triggered downside continuation to 97.14 so far. Let's notice, however, that the hourly RSI remains pointed straight down, and that the SPY has been unable to chase its way back towards a test of the 98.00/30 breakdown area. This warns me (for now) that the SPYs have more downside directly ahead, into the 96.00 target zone in the upcoming hours.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
Stock Market Pauses Ahead of Tuesdays Presidential Election / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
We got basically what we thought we would on Monday -- a quieter session, lower volume, and slightly lower prices. There was a little bit of afternoon volatility, but for the most part the indices opened mixed, worked their way sharply higher initially, and then went into a couple-hour consolidation. It looked like that they maybe would try to break out, but when they failed to break through on two different occasions they then rolled over in the afternoon. Then they retested Friday afternoon's lows and the rising trendlines, bounced sharply, but in the last 10 minutes once again slipped sharply lower and gave back half the late rally, closing negative on the session.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Bullish Stock Market Technicals and Seasonal's / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: With a 19.9% advance in the last 4 trading days the Russell 2000 (R2K) is only 0.1% below the popular definition of a bull market.
Short Term - Many of the short term indicators are off the charts, trying to read anything into them is too risky.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Stock Market Sharp Sell-off in Last 10 Minutes / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had a very strong session before -- and then after -- the FOMC announcement, when it lowered rates. Initially they dropped,but they rallied back sharply to new rally highs, then literally in the last 10 minutes the indices fell apart. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 50 points in 10 minutes, and the Dow 400 points, and they closed with a thud, down on the day on all the indices except the Nasdaq 100 which managed to salvage a small gain. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Stock Market Conflicting Evidence for a Bottom / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Richard_Shaw
The fact is that today's stock markets were extraordinary in their strength. Emerging markets (proxy EEM) up about 20% and the S&P 500 (proxy SPY) up about 11%.
There are important positive facts to consider:
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 27, 2008
Stock Market Late Slide Takes Out Support Levels / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets ended with a nasty session, particularly on a late slide that closed them at the lows for the day going away.
As has been happening over the last few days, the indices gapped lower on negative futures, immediately bounced, retested and when that was successful they backed and filled and then churned higher, reaching the session highs and testing Friday afternoon's rally highs on both the NDX and S&P 500. But when they failed to punch through at mid afternoon, they sold off, bounced late in the afternoon, but couldn't get through intraday resistance, and then rolled over hard, particularly in the last 10 minutes.
Monday, October 27, 2008
How the Fed Creates Bull and Bear Markets / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clif_Droke
I received an e-mail recently that is typical of the pop economic philosophy being heavily touted today in various financial forums. The e-mail contained a petition for the elimination of the Federal Reserves system. The gist of the e-mail was that the credit crisis was caused by the Fed's “loose money policy.” Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Stock Market Impressive Rallies Fail to Change Bearish Trend / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: With commodity prices falling, our enemies are going broke.
Short Term - Many of the short term indicators are off the charts, trying to read anything into them is too risky. Last week Alan Greenspan admitted to making mistakes.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Stock Market Indices Sharply Off Lows, but the Bleeding Continues / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
It was another negative session on Wall Street, a nasty way to end the week, but at least they came sharply off the early lows. Pre-market futures were limit down, as worldwide markets were down 8-10%, and the indices opened sharply lower, but immediately reversed and had a 3-wave rally that brought the NDX from 1148 to about 1225 in the first couple hours.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Stock Market Indices Late Snap Back Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had a very interesting and volatile session. The day started out with a move down that tested yesterday's late lows and held, then surged back in a 3-wave rally to the highs for the day, but failed at yesterday afternoon's resistance and then sold off steadily and sharply. The Nasdaq 100 dropped from 1264 to 1177, about an 87-point drop over the next several hours, and the S&P 500 fell from nearly 923 to 859, or 64 points in the same period of time, reaching their session lows, with the NDX making new 2008 and multi-year lows at 1177.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Stock Market Nasty Trading Session / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
A very nasty session, starting off with a sharp move down and then morning consolidation patterns that appeared very much to be bear-flag consolidations, and sure enough by mid-day when they started breaking the patterns the indices went quickly lower. They retested the lows, tried to bounce around that level, but was rather anemic, and in the afternoon they rolled over sharply. With about 15 minutes to go they were sharply lower at the lows for the day, down nearly 700 on the Dow, 78 on the SPX ,but a very sharp late snapback in the last 15-20 minutes, perhaps fueled by short covering, brought the Nasdaq 100 back about 35 points and the S&P 500 about 25 points, before they settled back a bit.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Definitive Stock Market Down-Day on Wall Street / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market had a volatile and negative session today. The indices were all over the place, but ended up near the lows for the day going away. The day started out with a big gap down on negative futures,they immediately rallied to come right back up to retest the highs of late Friday, but failed right there, sold off sharply and by mid-day were at the session lows at that point.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Stock Market Bottom Picking Thrill Seekers / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Brady_Willett
With the U.S. bailout script now being adopted globally and panic-driven selling abating, a period of calm (albeit perhaps temporarily) has settled over the financial markets. What better time to talk about the next round of stimulus:
“…with the economy likely to be weak for several quarters, and with some risk of a protracted slowdown, consideration of a fiscal package by the Congress at this juncture seems appropriate.” Bernanke. Economic outlook and financial markets. October 20, 2008
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Stock Markets Start Week with a Boost / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices had a terrific start to the week. Although they were up early on they pulled back down quite quickly, with the NDX actually breaking Friday's support lows, but the S&P 500 did not and refused to confirm that early drop. When that occurred they reversed, and then went into a steady 5-wave rally which spiked up into the close, closing at the highs for the day going away.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Stock Market Short Lived Rallies Suggest Investors Want Out / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: New lows have fallen off sharply.
Short Term - The preludes to the crash of 87 and the crash of 08 were very different, but the price patterns that followed have, so far, been similar. The percentage of issues hitting new lows in the crash of 87 set a record that held until a week ago. The 5 day average of the absolute value of the percentage change of the S&P 500 (SPX) set a record in 87 that still holds.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 17, 2008
Stock Market Short-term Trend Indicator / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Most investors look at yearly New Highs and don't look at lesser time periods. (The one year New Highs on the New York Stock Exchange has had a paltry 1 stock reading in the past few days.) Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Stock Market Pullback Session / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices had a pullback session yesterday, which would be expected after Monday's sharp rally.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Stock Market Imminent Seasonal Lows at Historic Times / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: We are living through great theatre. On October 20, 1987 there were 1174 new lows on the NYSE, about 57% of the 2076 issues that traded that day, a percentage record that held until recently. Last Friday there were 2901 new lows on the NYSE, about 88% of the 3306 issues traded. New lows have been calculated with their present methodology since January 1, 1978. At the 1987 low the S&P 500 (SPX) was 33.2% off its all time high set about 6 weeks earlier. On Friday the SPX was 42.5% off its all time high set about 1 year earlier.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Stock Market Indices Unable to Hold Snapback Rally Gains / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had an extremely volatile session today with wild and wide swings both ways. The day started out with a move lower and sharply from the get-go as pre-market futures were sharply lower. At that point the Nasdaq 100 dipped under 1300 to 1296, and the S&P 500 got down to just under 971.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 05, 2008
Stock Markets Oversold Due for a Relief Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: We are probably near a tradable rally.
Short Term - Last Monday the financial system bailout was rejected for lack of pork, that oversight was corrected Friday. News of the bailout failure sent volume ratios on both the NYSE and NASDAQ to extremes not seen since October 19, 1987. Other breadth ratios hit extremes rarely seen.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 02, 2008
Stock Market Monthly Trend Analysis- October 2008 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Hans_Wagner
This is a free monthly newsletter on stock market trends to help you to learn to invest. Following the trend is a proven way to beat the market and grow your stock portfolio. Basic technical analysis provides the tools to identify and follow the trends of the market as determined by the S&P 500.
It is best to begin with the big picture in mind and then work our way down to weekly and then daily views of the charts. You will notice that the chart and the value of the indicators change as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart. This is a normal part of the technical analysis.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Stock Market New Lows and Institutional Selling Trend Indicators / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Many of you remember this past July when I reported about the existing banking risk to your family and yourself. Back then, I noted that Cindy and I had closed all our accounts at Wachovia and went to a sound local bank. We knew we wanted to exit Wachovia and we knew which local bank we wanted because we obtained the VERIBANC REPORTS. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Baillout Plan Deal to Ignite Stock Market End Quarter Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: A bottom is near.
Short Term When, speaking of the economy, the President declares "This sucker is going down", short term indicators lose their relevance.
Intermediate Term The high number of new lows a week ago imply a high likelihood of a retest of the September price low.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 26, 2008
Stock Markets In Limbo Awaiting Bailout Decision / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
With about three hours remaining in this crazy week, let's notice this morning's weakness established a secondary low in the e-Mini Dec S&P for this week at 1194.75 compared with Wednesday's low at 1180.25--and compared to the week ago yesterday (9/18) low at 1136.25. Can we call these three lows part of a near base-building effort? Yes, unless 1180.25 is violated, which will weaken the base-building scenario. To trigger initial upside confirmation of a near-term base, the e-SPZ -- a proxy for those trading the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) -- must hurdle and sustain above 1218 and then 1225.00. For the time being, however, the index is in limbo -- along with the US Congress.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 22, 2008
Stock Market Cycle Projections and Turning Points / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
Long-term trend -
The Dow Jones Industrials may be deviating from their typical decennial pattern in an election year. Important cycles going into the Fall could be the reason for this, but one also has to consider the possibility that the downward pressure from the 120-yr cycle, which is due to make its low in 2012-2014, has begun to take effect and that October 2007 was the top of the bull market. This is not yet confirmed and remains only a possibility.
SPX: Intermediate trend - Last week's action suggests that the intermediate trend correction may have run its course, but a test of the low is quite probable.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Stock Markets Extreme Volatility / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
Short Term Over the past week the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) moved and average of 2.4% a day, the highest level of volatility since the low of October 2002.
The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the DJIA in red and an indicator showing the average daily percentage change of the DJIA over the previous 5 trading days in black. The indicator is calculated by adding the absolute value of the percentage change of the DJIA over the previous 5 trading days and dividing by 5. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 19, 2008
Stock Market Cheers Fiscal Insanity / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Shedlock
The biggest stock market rallies occur in bear markets. Today we witnessed one of the biggest bear market rallies in history on Plans To Shore Up Banks . U.S. stocks rallied the most in six years on prospects the government will formulate a "permanent" plan to shore up financial markets, while regulators and pension funds took steps to curb bets against banks and brokerages.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Nasdaq Q's Signaling Technical Bottom / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
In a "normal" market environment, if the Q's exhibited the current technical set-up that shows a glaring positive momentum divergence, the form of a completed downleg from the 8/15 high at 48.57 into the AM's low at 41.41, and a rally (today) that has subdivided into what I interpret as a bullish "recovery form," I would be very enticed to enter a new long position. In fact, our model portfolio is long based on the explained technical set-up. HOWEVER, we all know that this is not a normal market.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Stock Markets Comparison Against the 1930's Depression / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Captain_Hook
Analog Comparisons - The term analog is rooted in the word analogy , which for our purposes is being used with reference to an analog signal measuring a variable signal that is continuous (similar) in amplitude and time. In terms of analyzing the financial markets, and how price movements have a tendency to repeat in terms of pattern (amplitude) and time, it is this understanding that was the primary precept in the work of W. D. Gann , which to this day remains THE comprehensive / definitive template to unlocking the mystery of how markets work. The primary understanding then, is that price movements in markets have a tendency to repeat in pattern and time. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Stock Markets Close to Making an Intermediate Low / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: We are close to an intermediate term low.
Short Term The market is overbought. The chart below covers the past 3 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and an indicator showing the percentage of the last 3 days that have been up (%UP) in black. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 12, 2008
General Motors (GM) Breaks Out / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
We told our subscribers earlier today with General Motors (NYSE: GM )at 11.75 that the pattern -- a spike low followed by a vertical thrust, followed by a 60% pullback that morphs into a rounded secondary base formation -- usually finds a way to take off to the upside. Wow, did GM rocket after that, above its breakout plateau at 11.85/90 to an intraday high so far at 12.82. The bullish pattern remains intact and continues to point to 13.10/20 and then 14.00/20. Only a close below 11.75 will compromise the still bullish outlook.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 12, 2008
Looking for a Stock Market Bottom? Look to Wall Street / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Stathis
Wall Street created this mess and they continue to mislead everyone who bothers to listen. But it will be Wall Street that signals a bottom if you know what to look for. Watch for massive downgrades and/or extreme pessimism. This is how the game is played. Remember how the Internet bubble played out? Wall Street surely won't tell you when to get out of the market. But they will tell you when to get back in if you know how to read their actions. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Intraday Double-Bottom in SPY Stock Market Index / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Although the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) pressed lower than I thought was likely, the secondary low at 122.55 preserved this morning's pre-open LEH low at 122.47. The subsequent rally to 123.94 has left behind an intraday double-bottom that has power to revisit key near-term resistance at 124.00, which if hurdled should trigger continuation to 125.25/50 thereafter.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Stock Market Volume and Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clif_Droke
For a good part of the summer, trading volume was exceptionally light on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This was largely influenced by the typical summer vacation season this year. For the better part of July and August, the absence of heavy trading activity coincided with a more or less listless stock market and even a mild interim rally in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Since returning from the summer vacation season, however, institutional traders have taken a good look at the market picture and evidently don't like what they see. This displeasure was manifested in the form of high-volume selling on Thursday, Sept. 4, which saw a upside-to-downside volume ratio on the NYSE of 1:13.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 08, 2008
Bullish Healthy Sign for S&P 500 Stock Market Index / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
A wicked swoon during the second hour of trading in response to a rumor that United Airlines (UAUA) had filed for bankruptcy. That stock plunged from 12 to nearly 3 and took the overall market with it. The S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) plunged to 125.49, which represented nearly a 50% pullback (125.32) of the entire upmove from Friday's "Jobless low" at 122.00 to today's "Fannie Mae (FNM) high" at 128.62. Apart from the drama and vicious intraday action, purely from a technical perspective, the SPYs have corrected -- or partially corrected -- the initial upleg off of Friday's high-volume price low at an important support plateau -- and that is a very healthy sign so far.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 08, 2008
Stock Market at Risk of Significant Decline Until the End of October / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
Long-term trend - The Dow Jones Industrials may be deviating from their typical decennial pattern in an election year. Important cycles going into the Fall could be the reason for this, but one also has to consider the possibility that the downward pressure from the 120-yr cycle, which is due to make its low in 2012-2014, has begun to take effect and that October 2007 was the top of the bull market. This is not yet confirmed and remains only a possibility.
SPX: Intermediate trend - Last week's action suggests that the intermediate trend correction has not yet run its course.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 06, 2008
Institutional Investors Stock Market Core Holdings Warning of Severe Downtrend / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
You know the reality ... Institutional Investors have the directional control over the markets because they are responsible for 50% to 70%+ of the stock market's volume on any given day.
Below is a chart showing the "top core holdings index" held by the large Institutional Investors. Take a quick look at it ... what do you see?
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 06, 2008
Stock Markets Expected to Rally from Oversold State / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: We are close to or at an intermediate term low.
Short Term In the past month NASDAQ upside volume has declined from, close to, the high for the year to, close to, the low for the year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 05, 2008
Stock Market Panics Into September, a Historically Bad Month / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Many reports have been published over the past few days about stock market seasonality and, specifically, about September typically being the worst month of the year.
I included the following paragraph in a recent post : “Seasonality indicates that ‘September has firmly secured the rank as the worst month of the year' ( Stock Trader's Almanac ), but that a year-end rally typically starts in late September / early October.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Stock Market Dead Cat Bounce —What to do... / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Don't let last weeks rally in the Dow fool you. There are two crucial reasons why I'm convinced it was nothing more than a dead-cat bounce:
First, it was on extremely light volume. With most of Wall Street traders already on their Labor Day vacations, a handful of traders can easily move the market no matter how dire the underlying fundamentals are.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Stock Markets Heading for a Retest of July Lows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Since the July lows the secondaries have been stronger than the blue chips.
Short Term The market is playing a disappearing act. Volume and new highs are at their lowest levels in years. Identifying strength or weakness under these conditions is challenging.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Stock Market Cycles Analysis Suggests Final Low by October / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
Long-term trend - The Dow Jones Industrials may be deviating from their typical decennial pattern in an election year. Important cycles going into the Fall could be the reason for this, but one also has to consider the possibility that the downward pressure from the 120-yr cycle, which is due to make its low in 2012-2014, has begun to take effect and that October 2007 was the top of the bull market. This is not yet confirmed and remains a low probability.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Stock Market Institutional Investment Flows Matrix / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
There are two things all investors must do in order to understand the market and be proficient at technical analysis.
What are the two things?
1. Understand charting, technical indicators, and how to read them.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Stock Market Seasonals 60% Probability of Up Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Most of the indicators suggest a continuation of the advance.
Short Term Advance - decline lines (ADL) are a running total of declining issues subtracted from advancing issues. Their behavior can vary widely and change over time. For example an ADL calculated from issues traded on the NASDAQ (OTC ADL) has had a negative bias while an ADL calculated from issues traded on the NYSE (NY ADL) used to have a negative bias, but, over the past 10 years or so the bias has become very positive.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Investors Should Pay Attention to Important Stock Market Divergences / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Market divergences tell a story of something, or some investor segment acting contrary to the market's movements.
Currently ... the DJI, NASDAQ, S&P, and the Russell are showing an up trending condition.
But, what if Institutions were selling while you were buying ... how would you feel then?
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Stock Market Counter Trend Rally Heading for Consolidation / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the MarketLong-term trend - The Dow Jones Industrials may be deviating from their typical decennial pattern in an election year. Important cycles going into the Fall could be the reason for this, but one also has to consider the possibility that the downward pressure from the 120-yr cycle, which is due to make its low in 2012-2014, has begun to take effect and that October 2007 was the top of the bull market. This is not yet confirmed and remains a low probability.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Stock Markets Set to Consolidate Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Friday, most of the major indices closed at their highest levels since the mid July lows.
Short Term - Last week all of the major indices were up, but, in a change for he worse, the blue chips were stronger than the secondaries. The Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA) was up 3.60%, the S&P 500 (SPX) up 2.86% while the S&P midcap was up 1.61% and the Russell 2000 (R2K) was up 2.53%. On Monday, new lows on both the NYSE and NASDAQ hit their highest levels since the day after the mid July price low. Both the NYSE and NASDAQ new low indicators are moving sharply upward so there should life left in this rally.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 10, 2008
How the U.S. Government Has Mismanaged the Country / Politics / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Shedlock
The U.S. Government has brutally mismanaged the country. Sadly neither candidate is willing to take a stand on fiscal prudence. I asked Senator to Obama to take a stand, and to pick someone fiscally prudent as his Vice President in in my Open Letter To Obama .I did receive a response, but only to inform me that he could not use the Senate Email system for such purposes. Instead, he asked me to re-send the Email to his campaign address.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 09, 2008
The Fast Disappearing U.S. Middle Class / Economics / US Stock Markets
By: Jennifer_Barry
I've been concerned about the state of the U.S. economy for several years, but only recently has mainstream America started waking up to the severity of the crisis. Even the depths of the Dow bear market in 2003 didn't engender this much pessimism. At the time, most people still believed that stocks would go up in the long run, and it was time to scoop up the bargains. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 08, 2008
S&P 500 Stocks Index Probes Critical Resistance / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Another mini "melt-up" that follows a mini "melt down." After yesterday's late-session plunge, this morning out of the blue (but in coincidence with very weak oil and gold prices) the SPDR Trust (AMEX: SPY) has rocketed across its recent range to once again probe critical resistance between 128.50 and 129.30. If this climb manages to hurdle -- and sustain -- above 129.30, the near-term price structure should "combust" to the upside in a thrust to 132.50 next. Failure to do so, however, will argue for yet another loop to the downside that tests support at 126.50/30.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
S&P 500 Stocks Index Consolidating at Top of Upleg / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
For the most part, the SPDR Trust (AMEX: SPY) have held yesterday's gains extremely well, and appear to be consolidating right at the top of the upleg from 124.77 to 128.62, presumably ahead of another thrust that will confront critical July-Aug resistance at 129.10/15. If hurdled and sustained, the SPY should accelerate to confront its key resistance plateau at 130.20, which represents the coordinate of the declining 50 DMA.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
The Birth Pains of a New Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clif_Droke
After what has seemed to many investors to be the “longest year”, stocks have been going through a volatile period which some interpret to be bearish. There are still many analysts who are quick to label the current market phase a temporary pause on the way to a bigger stock market cascade. Contrary to these expectations, the market tape is sending a different message as we'll establish in this commentary.
It has been all too easy to dismiss the recent state of affairs in the financial markets as the start of a major bear market and economic depression. The pain that has been inflicted has left deep and abiding wounds that won't soon be forgotten by most investors. Making matters worse, every time a negative news event crosses the wires it adds to the widespread belief that the U.S., and indeed the emerging foreign powers, teeters on the brink of a major financial catastrophe.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Stock Market Liquidity Which Way Will it Break? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Today's charts show the inflows and outflows of liquidity into the stock market. When inflows are trending up and positive (in expansion), the competition for stocks becomes high and prices are bid up causing an upside rally.
The opposite happens when we see liquidity outflows and a trending down pattern. When this is happening with outflows in contraction territory , the balance shifts to a selling competition where investors try to get the best price before expectations of lower movement. This causes a condition that ends up in a market correction.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 02, 2008
Stock Markets Consolidating Ahead of Another Leg Higher / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The market has been working off its overbought condition about as well as could be hoped for.
Short Term - In 7 trading days following the mid-July lows most of the major indices jumped 5%-6% leaving the market overbought. Since then, it has been working off the overbought condition about as well as could be hoped; new lows declined quickly and the secondaries have been outperforming the blue chips.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Institutional "Core Holdings" Warning to Bullish Investors / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
We have spoken at length about the importance of Institutional investors vs. the stock market. The key element of importance was the fact that Institutions control well over 50% of any day's typical volume. So, the market follows the trend of what Institutions are doing with their "core holdings". Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Dow Jones Stocks Index Major Deviation from Presidential Cycle / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
Long-term trend - The Dow Jones Industrials may be deviating from their typical decennial pattern in an election year. Important cycles going into the Fall could be the reason for this, but one also has to consider the possibility that the downward pressure from the 120-yr cycle, which is due to make its low in 2012-2014 has begun to take effect and that October 2007 was the top of the bull market. This is not yet confirmed and remains a low probability.
SPX: Intermediate trend - It is possible that the intermediate term correction was completed at 1201. More likely, this is only a counter-trend rally which probably has a little farther to go.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Stock Market Short-term Overbought But Lows Should Hold / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Since the low, a week ago last Tuesday, new lows have all but disappeared.
Short Term - The market is overbought. A variety of short term indicators hit their highest levels in a while.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Have the Stock Markets Reached a Bottom? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Adam_Perl
The financial markets bounced back and forth last week, affected by a wave of economic data and earnings from a few of the largest names in the U.S market. The biggest surprise came out on Friday as the housing sector showed that it still has some fight left in it, with new and existing home sales - beating analyst's estimates. As the housing crisis is one of the major causes of the current economic situation, it is only legitimate to think that if the current housing crisis improves, the economy will regain its strength, heading back on track. Then again, is this a valid conclusion or only wishful thinking? Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Bullish Countertrend Rally Developing in Dow Stocks Index / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
My pattern and momentum work on the 4-hour Dow Diamonds (AMEX: DIA) price action off of the July 15 low argues that the upleg from the 108.33 low to the 115.65 high (7/21) represents the initial recovery rally leg, and that the weakness into today's low at 113.80 represents a shallow correction of that initial upleg.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 21, 2008
S&P Fails to Break Inverted Head & Shoulders Neckline Resistance / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
In a bull market environment, the picture of the S&P 500 & its SPY ETF, as viewed by the e-Mini S&P 500 chart, would be very different. Let's notice that today's new recovery high at 1269 looks like it could have been an upside breakout from a base-like pattern that resembles an "inverted head-and-shoulders," doesn't it?Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Stock Market Bounce Follow Through / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
I took the opportunity last week to offer a big picture review since it was clear we were at an important area in the major stock indices and, even though it avoided the specificity available to paying members, hopefully it kept readers from seeing a trap door early this week and shorting a bottom. This one is offerred as a follow-up on last week's call for a bottom in banks, a top in oil with a rally in stocks. And, of course, the question everyone wants answered now is whether there will be follow-through to this newfound upleg or did Friday's close end a bounce that will begin a march to new lows starting Monday.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Stock Market Monthly Analysis and a look at RIM / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Christopher_Quigley
The bear market in US stocks which was initially flagged by the Transport Index in July 07, and was confirmed by the Industrials in October 07, is gaining pace as can be clearly seen in the chart below: the industrial index has crashed through the red 200 day moving average (dma) line.
High oil prices, a crashing real estate market, growing banking troubles and falling consumer confidence all indicate that this bear still has more legs. As with all pullbacks, at some stage it is reasonable to expect an oversold bounce, but given the current market sentiment I would not participate in any long strategy until the earnings season is over. Thus I advise waiting until the forth week in July before considering investing on the bull side.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 14, 2008
Stock Markets Oversold and Pointing to Relief Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
Long-term trend - The Dow Jones Industrials are deviating from their typical decennial pattern in an election year. Important cycles going into the Fall could be the reason for this, but one also has to consider the possibility that the downward pressure from the 120-yr cycle, which is due to make its low in 2012-2014 has begun to take effect and that October 2007 was the top of the bull market. This is not yet confirmed.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The initial phase of the intermediate correction came to an end on 3/17 at 1257. After a tentative uptrend to 1440, the index has now retraced to slightly below its March low with signs of a rally appearing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 14, 2008
S&P Stock Market Index 400 Point Move! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
What if that was the headline for this coming week, a four hundred point move in the S&P? Most likely, you'd be loading up on out of the money puts or calls , looking for the market to close at record highs or down around 800. If you haven't noticed, those looking for a sudden, dramatic collapse in stocks have been thwarted by a slow, persistent drip downward occasionally punctuated by vicious snapback rallies.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 14, 2008
Dow Jones Stock Market Forecast to Sept 2008 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow Jones has until recently been closely following the roadmap for 2008 posted on 24th March 2008 as part of the Global Stock markets outlook, i.e. both the rally to early May to 13,136 and the subsequent downtrend to 11,700 by the end of June were virtually spot on. The analysis was confirmed in the analysis of 3rd May 08, which concluded that Sell in May and Go Away would be occur this year as transpired during the subsequent decline into the end of June as the below road map chart illustrates from the March article.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Big Trend Changes are Coming to the Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
We expect several significant changes to occur in markets over the next week or two. We cover those changes in detail in our expanded 56 page newsletter to subscribers at www.technicalindicatorindex.com , and discuss if those changes will be long-term or simply short-term.
We base our studies of markets on the premise that markets have a language, that they are telling us where they are headed next, so if we can know that language, and listen properly, we can have a huge investing advantage.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Stocks Technical Outlook Suggests Tradeale Rally Forming / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The conditions are ripe for a washout which would be a setup for a tradable rally.
Short Term - I use momentum indicators of price and breadth to find a short term rhythm in the market. These have all failed recently as the market has gone to rarely seen oversold levels.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Stock Market Liquidity Contraction Points to Increasing Fear and Capitulation ... / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
The reason why Liquidity inflows and outflows is a critical element relative to the market rallying or correcting:
Liquidity inflows and outflows are easily understood by any corporation. When their cash inflows are positive and increasing, they have money to expand and hire. When their cash is outflowing and negative, their businesses contract and they layoff workers.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 07, 2008
Stock Market Had Worst Half Year Since 1970 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Regent_Markets
The half year report card for global stock markets was not one to be proud of. The first half of 2008 was the worst first half to a year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1970, when the index was down 14.60%. The 14.44% decline of 2008 is actually the tenth worse performance since 1900. July hasn't exactly started off with a bang and US traders may be thankful for the long weekend last week. The S&P 500 closed the week down 1.19%, registering its lowest daily close for almost two years. June was especially hard for US markets with a drop of 8.55% for the S&P 500, and a 10.19% collapse on the Dow, making up most of the years losses to date.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 06, 2008
Stocks at Extreme Oversold Levels / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The market is very oversold and likely to bounce (No change).
Short Term Overbought - oversold is a description of a price move within a given time frame. Currently the market is oversold by virtually any measure over any time frame.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 03, 2008
Stock Market Oversold But Threatening Critical Support Level / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Hans_Wagner
Originally written 30th June 2008 - Following the market trend is a proven way for investors to beat the market and grow your stock portfolio. Basic technical analysis provides the tools to identify and follow the trends of the market as determined by the S&P 500.
It is best to begin with the big picture in mind and then work our way down to weekly and then daily views of the charts. You will notice that the chart and the value of the indicators change as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart. This is a normal part of the technical analysis.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 30, 2008
S&P 500 Stock Market Index Potential Near-Term Double Bottom Pattern / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Earlier this AM, the SPY declined to 127.30 prior to pivoting to the upside for a rally to an intraday high so far at 128.87. Let's notice that the AM low left behind a potential near term Double Bottom type of pattern with Fri.'s low at 127.04. To trigger upside acceleration that unleashes the potential of the "mini Double Bottom," the SPYs must hurdle and sustain above129.00-- for a run at 130.00/30 thereafter. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Stock Market Heading for a Successful Test of March Low / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current position of the Market
Long-term trend - The Dow Jones Industrials are deviating from their typical decennial pattern in an election year. Important cycles going into the Fall could be the reason for this, but one also has to consider the possibility that the downward pressure from the 120-yr cycle, which is due to make its low in 2012-2014 has began to take effect and that October 2007 was the top of the bull market. This is not yet confirmed.
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Stock Markets Very Oversold Rally Expected Next Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The market is very oversold and likely to bounce.
Short Term For the 1st 3 days of last week the DJIA danced slightly above its March low. Thursday and Friday it lost nearly 4% and the NYSE recorded 492 new lows, better than the 759 new lows recorded at the March low, but still enough to make another retest likely.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
S&P Upside Reversal Has Power / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) fell out of its Fri-Mon sideways congestion (coil) pattern to new reaction lows at 130.20, which was right near my optimal downside target zone of 130.50, and has since pivoted to the upside for a recovery that has propelled prices back up into the congestion area (131.30-132.10). The reversal has power, and if it hurdles 132.10/25 then my work will confirm that a significant near-term low has been establish on the way to 134.50 as an initial target.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Stock Market Oversold, Major Low Imminent / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The market is oversold and there is reason to think we are at or very near the low for this downward move.
Short Term
Every one of the issues in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is below its 50 day EMA, a relatively rare event that has occurred near bottoms.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Recovery Rally for S&P 500 Stock Market Index / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The near-term technical set-up for the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) argues in favor of an approaching recovery rally into the 135.50-136.00 area in the upcoming hours -- once the current low is established, either at 133.50 or somewhere lower. For the time being, though, I am willing to risk only 132.80 to participate in the preferred scenario.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 16, 2008
Stock Markets Heading for Test of March Lows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend -
So far, the market has followed the decennial pattern in an election year. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in the Fall could play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate correction came to an end on 3/17 at 1257. After a tentative uptrend to 1440, the index is now is in the process of testing its March low and expanding its base.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Stock Markets Putting in a Significant Low / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: We are going into a bottom that is likely to be the final low for the decline that began last July.
Short Term - Last Wednesday's low is not likely to hold. Many indicators look like the one shown below, that is, they confirmed last Wednesday's low while they did not confirm short term lows earlier this year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 13, 2008
Stock Markets– Bear Market Rally or Bull Market UP Turn? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Since topping out in October 2007, global stock markets have been characterized by two distinct phases: a decline through January/March this year, and then a rebound until mid-May. The predominantly weak undertone of the past few weeks has naturally again raised the question of whether the strength from January/March until three weeks ago has simply been a bear market rally, or whether it in fact was a longer-term upturn in stock markets' fortunes. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Dow Support and Resistance Lines Update / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mick_Phoenix
In Sundays Weekly Report we looked at some charts that showed the Occasional Letter proprietary indicator in an experimental role on the hourly Dow. As this weeks targets have now been hit I thought it would be appropriate to update the charts to show you the outcome.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Leadership Stocks Go Negative / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Every night, we crank our computers up as they look at every stock trading $2 or higher on every exchange.
We get a count of the Very Strong Leadership stocks and a count of the Very Weak Stocks in the Broad Market. From this data, we subtract the number of Very Weak Stocks from the number of Leadership stocks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 09, 2008
Crude Oil Comparison Illustrates Major Stock Market Weakness / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Our big picture view of the S&P 500 compared (or contrasted) to the price action of crude oil concludes that we need to get long the UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares ETF (AMEX: SDS), or short the SPY, at some point in the hours directly ahead.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 07, 2008
Stocks Healthy Correction to Continue Next Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The mid and small cap indices hit new recovery highs last Thursday.
Short Term - Aside from the lack of volume it is difficult to find anything wrong with this market. We expect to see new highs expanding in a rising market and that has been happening.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 06, 2008
Stock Market Forecast for Summer 2008 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Hans_Wagner
To make money in the stock market it is important to follow the trend. I believe it is best to begin with the big picture in mind and then work our way down to weekly and then daily views of the charts. You will notice that the chart and the value of the indicators change as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart. This is a normal part of the technical analysis.
Let's start with the long term view of the S&P 500. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) seems to be a good indicator of the cyclical bull and bear markets. In addition, the 78-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acts as support in a bull market and resistance in a bear market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 01, 2008
Stock Market Trend Points to Further Consolidation / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - So far, the market has followed the decennial pattern in an election year. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate correction came to an end on 3/17. The index is now in a cautious and tentative uptrend.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Stock Market Short-term Overbought / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The small cap indices hit new recovery highs last Friday.
Short Term : The market is over bought.
As of Friday all of the major indices were up for 4 consecutive days.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Stock Market Lacks Institutional Support / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
This is the Institutional chart that we post on our paid subscriber sites every day.
Given that Institutions account for over 50% of the stock market's daily volume, it is critically important to monitor Institutional activity on their "core holdings".
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Playing the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
Before we illustrate our total command over the NDX of late, we wish to provide you with a brief update to our previous week's assessment of the Dow Transportation Average.
In brief, the update of the hourly Transportation average below exemplifies precisely how dynamic Elliott Wave architecture adjusts in accordance with real-time price action.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 24, 2008
Stocks Oversold Expecting Rally Next Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Last weeks decline caused little technical damage.
Short Term The market is over sold. Many of the breadth indicators are at their lowest levels since the March low.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 19, 2008
Stock Market Tentative Rally to Undergo Short-term Correction / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market.
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. This is the pattern that the market has made so far this year. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate correction came to an end on 3/17. The index is now in a cautious uptrend which is about to undergo a short-term consolidation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 19, 2008
US Toxic Economy and the Questionable Stock Market Advance / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Tim_Wood
The equity markets continue to advance out of the January/March lows, commodity prices surge, oil continues to hit record highs and the consumer is now pulling back in a big way. History tells us that manipulation ultimately fails and that it typically only serves to make matters worse in the end. Well, when looking at what is physically happening around me, if the technical picture that I now see developing continues to unfold, then the backlash from the attempts to “stimulate the economy” may have now created a witches brew with a not so happy ending. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 19, 2008
Stock Market Response to US Economic Collapse in September? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clif_Droke
A rumor is swirling around the Internet that an inglorious end to the U.S. economy is imminent. Unlike previous rumors to this effect, this one carries the weight of recent events in the financial realm and has many believing the rumor will come to pass.
Let's examine some of the claims being made: On March 18, 2008, a “closed door” session of Congress was held for only the fourth time in history. According to House Rule XVII, clause 9, it is forbidden for members of the U.S. House of Representatives to reveal the discussions held behind those doors. The penalty for leaking such information includes loss of seniority, fines, reprimand, censure or expulsion. According to news sources, one purpose of the meetings was to discuss new surveillance techniques to be used by U.S. Homeland Security. Rumors continue to swirl as to what the other topics of discussion took place in that meeting.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Stock Market Technically Overbought Coupled Negative Seasonal Factors / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is Most of the major indices hit multi month highs last week.
Short Term The market is over bought.
As of last Friday, the S&P mid cap index was up for the 7 consecutive days for the first time in over a year. Longer term this is a good sign, but, for the next week or so continued upward progress is likely to be limited.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 16, 2008
Stock Markets 2008- Sell in May and Go Away? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Hans_Wagner
Investors who want to beat the market need to be aware of the key trends that will affect their portfolios. To some this year looks like a classic “Sell in May and Go Away.” The theory is the market goes into hibernation for six months from May to November, and during the other six months it gets back into gear and makes its move up. The chart below, from Chart of the Day , shows the history of this phenomenon. Moreover, according to Standard & Poor's the November to April period outperformed the May to October period 69% of the time. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Nasdaq Hits Upside Trendline Channel / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) continue to stair-step higher towards the top of the March-May channel at 50.00/20, which should provide the next serious challenge to the powerful 8-week advance. My overall technical work is warning me to be prepared for another attempt by the bears to reverse the direction of the Q's, which if successful should press prices back towards the 48.30/00 support zone. This should not be construed as a call to short the Q's -- at least not yet anyway.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Institutional Selling Warns of Stock Market Weakness / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Which index will be right ... the Dow Jones Industrials or the Institutional index with their "core holdings"?
Chart 1 is a 2003-2008 graph of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Note how it has had a 5 year up channel. The channel broke to the downside ... but then the DOW moved back into the channel.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Stock Market Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The secondaries held up better than the blue chips in last weeks decline.
Short Term - The secondaries lead both up and down. Although all of the major indices declined last week the S&P 500 (SPX) was down 1.81% while the Russell 2000 (R2K) was down only 0.78%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Financial Markets Spring Break-Down / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
Financial Sphere & Fed Gone Wild / cost, well over $500 Trillion in notional derivativesWith no apparent end in sight to their omnipotent magical power, as you watched our fascist-like fed usurp ever-more control over the financial sphere, were you impressed enough to trade-long shortly following their lead in contriving the spasmodically incessant rally from the March lows?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Stock Market Trend Analysis for May 2008 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Hans_Wagner
To make money in the stock market it is important to follow the trend. It is best to begin with the big picture in mind and then work our way down to weekly and then daily views of the charts. You will notice that the chart and the value of the indicators change as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart. This is a normal part of the technical analysis.
Let's start with the long term view of the S&P 500. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) seems to be a good indicator of the cyclical bull and bear markets. In addition, the 78-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acts as support in a bull market and resistance in a bear market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Dow Jones Bearish Wedge Time Frames Analysis- Yorba TV Show / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Today I would like to talk about charting in different time frames so that
the trader may get a different persspective on the market he or she is
trading.
The first picture is an hourly chart on the Dow Jones Industrials. On the far right it shows the reversal we had in the last week. Remember I had said that the markets were in a topping process and you asked whether I would go short on Friday? My answer was that I would go short when the market tells me.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 05, 2008
Stock Market Update: Turn Off the TV / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
Last week's tape is evidence of how many traders let the news get to their head, got faked out by the post-Fed selloff, and were short stocks after the meeting only to be forced to cover later in the week, sparking a rally that now has much of Wall Street bullish on stocks. But, after having pounded the table about being long above 1256, which remember was the must-hold big picture target number that had us buying the bottom during the MLK holiday hedge fund blowup and again on the retest, the widespread feelings that it's now time get into the market has us instead eyeing the exits.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 04, 2008
Stocks Trending Higher on Better than Expected Economic Statistics / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could also play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate consolidation came to an end on 3/17. The index is now in a cautious uptrend which probably has a little farther to go.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 03, 2008
Stock Market Technical's Deteriorating Suggesting Downtrend Next Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: All of the major indices hit multi month highs last week.
Short Term - During the rally off the January lows new highs on the NYSE declined.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 03, 2008
Stock Market Strategy- Sell in May and Go Away: Fact or Fallacy? / InvestorEducation / US Stock Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
“Where is the stock market heading?” is one of the questions most often asked by investors, especially as stock markets seem to be disconnected from economic activity.
It is therefore no wonder that even so-called “pop analysis”, including some legendary axioms, is resorted to in a quest for direction. And besides “buy low and sell high” few other axioms are more widely propagated than “sell in May and go away”. A Google search revealed an astounding 126 000 items featuring this phrase.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 02, 2008
Equities Uptrend Weakened by Surging Crude Oil / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
In just about the past 24 hours, crude oil prices have rocketed from a corrective low of $110.30 to this AM's intraday high at $116.18 so far- just a 5% gain, that's all! So far, the rally in oil, an ETF of which is the US Oil Trust (AMEX: USO), has recovered about 60% of the prior decline from the all-time high at $119.93 to yest.'s low at $110.30. If June crude hurdles and sustains above $116.20, then I will be expecting a retest of $119.93.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 01, 2008
Bearish Stock Market Wedge Patterns- Yorba TV Show / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Today I want to talk about wedges (not wedgies). Especially the bearish
kind of wedge. We have them in a lot of indexes, namely in the SPX, the NDX
and the EEM. Bearish wedges are continuation patterns of an existing trend.
A wedges is formed by a counter-trend correction and it leans against the
prevailing advance or decline. In this case, a rising wedge is bearish and
a falling wedge is bullish. The wedge pattern usually retraces one-half to
two-thirds of the prevailing move before failing or reversing. Volume
usually contracts during the formation of the wedge, while increasing after
the break down or breakout. My source is John Murphy's book, Technical
Analysis of the Futures Markets. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Stock Markets Buoyed by Decent Earnings and Interest Rate Cuts / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
With all the hand wringing about consumer confidence falling to 25+ year lows, it becomes much easier to understand IF we make the assumption that we are in a recession. Others worry about the self-fulfilling prophesy – if we believe we are in a recession, it will be so. However much of what is happening today was planted over a year ago. This too is the reason for why all the rate cuts made by the Fed have had little impact upon investors and the economy. However, the cuts will eventually have an impact – but that is not likely until later in the year. A complicating factor in today's economy is the lack of lending “interest” by banking institutions.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 28, 2008
Institutional Index Stocks Index Suggests Weakness Ahead for Broader Market / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
This long term view of the Dow, Transports, and Institutional Index
tells you where the market is now.
Bull and Bear markets have one thing in common ... Bull markets move up in a long term up channel, and Bear markets move down in a long term down channel.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 28, 2008
Stock Market Update: Survival of the Unbiased Trader / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
I'm sure a few heads were turned when I first posted the chart above, which suggests the S&P could rally to 1430 before finally deciding whether this is a bull or bear market. What makes this chart great is it underscores the nature of unbiased trading: no matter what your personal convictions are, or your interpretation of economic data, the market has not decided bull or bear and neither has the unbiased trader.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 26, 2008
US Stock Markets Developing Bullish Pattern / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The market has been in a pattern of higher highs and higher lows for over a month now.
Short Term
The chart below covers the past 100 trading days showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and an indicator showing the percentage of the last 3 trading days that the NASDAQ AD line (OTC ADL) was up in brown. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month; the vertical line is red on the 1st trading day of the year. The indicator touches the top of the chart when there have been 3 consecutive up days and it touches the bottom of the screen when there have been 3 consecutive down days. OTC ADL (not shown) is a running total of NASDAQ declining issues subtracted from NASDAQ advancing issues.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Powerful Stocks Bull Market As US Hyper Power Prepares for Global Hegemony / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clive_Maund
Back in the late 20th century there were predictions that the 21st century would be characterized by “resource wars” where fighting breaks out between countries and aligned groups of countries, as they scramble to secure increasingly scarce commodities for themselves, principally oil and water. Barely had we entered the new century when a major resource war began, with the big surprise being that it was not some banana republic suddenly deciding to invade and loot its neighbor's territory, but instead the most powerful country on earth muscling its way around an entire region on the other side of the planet in order to position itself to plunder its oil resources en masse for itself. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 25, 2008
Looking for Russell 2000 Index Breakout to Kick In / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
know what some of you must be thinking: why am I wasting my time in the IWM? Aside from the fact that I really like the upside potential of its 4 month base-like pattern, I also think that if Fed stimulus is going to "kick in" during Q3 and Q4, and if the narrowing of some of the credit spreads recently is any indication that fears of market risk are subsiding, then the small cap sector will benefit, although it has been lagging a bit.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Stock Market on Route to Recovery / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clif_Droke
By now it should be abundantly clear to even the most recalcitrant pessimists that the stock market is well along its route to recovery. The internal momentum structure hasn't looked this promising in weeks if not months. When it comes to evaluating the stock market's potential, internal momentum always precedes future price momentum and takes precedence over nearly every other consideration. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Nasdaq Q's Look Poised to Reach Next Upside Target / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
All of the action from Monday's high in the Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) at 47.08 appears to be carving out some sort of rest-digestion pattern that exhibits a double-peak at 47.08-47.06 juxtaposed against a series of higher lows off of yesterday's low at 45.93. Based on the developing near-term pattern, the Q's remain above 46.50 into the closing bell, and either thrust towards my next optimal target within the final 40 minutes of trading or in reaction to AAPL earnings in the aftermarket.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Russell 2000 To Test Support and then Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Thus far, the iShares Russell 2000 Small-Cap ETF (AMEX: IWM) has retraced 62% of its prior upmove from 68.16 to 72.27 and although the intensity of the sell-off is pressing the hourly RSI into oversold territory, my sense from the way the pattern is unfolding is that the IWM will test the March-April support line, now in the vicinity of 69.40/35 -- prior to my expectation of a potent upside pivot reversal that initiates a new upleg.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 21, 2008
Stock Market Update: Hitting on All Cylinders / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
In a period that had many traders guessing about earnings and the economy, TTC canceled out the noise last week and booked steady gains by doing what we always do: trading the charts. As the headlines raised the specter of economic depression and an earnings recession, the tape was hinting all along that the market wanted higher. And just as the majority of traders were fooled, the market screamed up to where it's been saying it was going all along.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Stock Markets Continue Rally into Intermediate Short-term Top / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could also play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Unanimous Bullish Stock Market Patterns / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
The chart patterns in the following three scenarios are unanimous: The industrial markets will rise back to (but not yet break above) their previous highs:
The April 18th buy signal on the traditional Point & Figure chart of the Wilshire 5000 is calling for a move to 15,400.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 18, 2008
US Stocks Surge as Foreigners Buy 'Cheap' US Equities / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
So far, this has been a remarkable session, with the SPY holding nearly all of its gains, while oil gyrates from $113 to $116/bbl., gold plunges $25/ounce (I could cry), and the dollar strengthening for no apparent reason. In any case, investors have decided to buy any and every pullback in the SPY.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Stock Market Update: Make or Break Time / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
Not only did Friday's inexorable drip lower invalidate several bullish charts that would have seen an extension of the April rally, it also crushed positive sentiment on the Street and reiterated the prevailing wisdom of a bear market. But as we now enter the mine field of earnings season next week, TTC members have covered their shorts as our indications suggest the market has reached a crucial potential support level that will prove to be make or break early next week. Besides, we can always get back on Sunday night when we actually start our week.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 12, 2008
Short-term Stock Market Trend Remains Up / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Last weeks sell off was not accompanied by increased volume of issues moving downward.
Short Term The chart below covers the past 9 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and a 5% trend of NASDAQ downside volume (OTC DV) in black. OTC DV has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so increasing OTC DV moves the indicator downward (up is good). Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month; the line is red on the 1st trading day of the year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Relatively Subdued Pullback for Russell 2000 ETF / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
So far despite what feels like a broad-based sell-off, in the lager scheme of things the Russell 2000 Small-Cap ETF (AMEX: IWM) actually has experienced a relatively subdued pullback off of last Friday's high at 71.90 (2.3%), which my work argues is a high-level congestion area atop the March-Aril advance prior to another thrust to the upside. At this juncture, only a sustained breach of key near-term support at 70.30/00 will begin to compromise the developing pattern.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Looking to be Long the Russell 2000 Stock Market ETF / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
During the past three months, the Russell 2000 Small-Cap ETF (AMEX: IWM) has carved out an impressive base-like pattern in the aftermath of its 25% correction (bear phase?) off of the July 2007 high at 85.74. Although the 72.00 area represents serious resistance, the size of the base pattern is just about as large as the size of the Aug-Nov top pattern that triggered the powerful decline.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 07, 2008
Stock Market Presidential Cycle Calls for Strong Bull Run into US Election / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could also play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in the process of ending and may already have ended.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 07, 2008
Stock Market Update: Gotta Have Faith / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
In typical fashion, the week closed at a crucial area that will determine whether there's still one more new high in this rally or it's now time for consolidation, leaving the decision to next week. Still, we have the ultimate resistance level for this move and the numbers below that will trigger a more serious correction.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 06, 2008
Stocks Bull Market on the Back of Rapid Money Supply Growth / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Money supply is growing at the fastest rate in years.
Short Term The market is over bought; many of the indicators are at or near extremes.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Stock Market Trends April 2008 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Hans_Wagner
To make money and beat the market it is important to follow the trend. When you follow the trend the market's underlying forces work for you. Simply said, but how do you identify the trend so you can follow it?
I believe it is best to begin with the big picture in mind and then work our way down to weekly and then daily views of the charts. You will notice that the chart and the value of the indicators change as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart. This is a normal part of the technical analysis.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 28, 2008
Can This Stock Market Rally Last? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: John_Browne
As the markets closed on Friday, March 14th , the $50 billion hedge fund, Carlyle Group, had collapsed, and questions were being asked about the viability of Bear Stearns. Having realized that Bear was close to insolvency, the Treasury and Fed worked overtime during the ensuing weekend to cobble together a bail out scheme that has since calmed the markets and encouraged a tepid rally. The salient question now is whether the rally can last.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Dow Transports Signaling More Bullish Times Ahead / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The iShares DJ Transportation Index ETF (AMEX: IYT) continues to act as though oil prices are considerably lower than $101/bbl and that the U.S. economy is hitting on more cylinders than currently perceived. Let's note with interest that crude oil prices ENDED their prior correction ($86) during the third week of January, which also coincided with the corrective low in the IYT at 71.62, and since then oil prices have climbed to a $111.80 high, while the IYT has continued to climb as well.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Stock Market Bulls vs Bears- The Battle Rages On! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Michael_Nystrom
If you're reading this, you're probably like me in this respect: Watching the market try to make up its mind is fun, the same way that watching a game is. The best part about this game is that you don't have to wait until Sunday – it is always on, and there is no shortage of pre- and post game analysis. True, it is always the same two teams – the Bulls vs. Bears, but each day they go at it with a vengeance, and recently the games have been nail biters! Furthermore (and perhaps the very best part) is that there is absolutely nothing illegal about placing bets on your favorite team for both fun and profit. In fact, you're encouraged to do just that. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 21, 2008
Stock Market Bottoming Process Continues- Good News Ahead / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clif_Droke
Investors have had to endure a tremendous onslaught of horrendous news that has shaken the financial sector to the core. One pundit likened the past few months to flying a hang glider in a hurricane. That's how it has felt to all of us as bad news begat more bad news…which in turn drove the financial markets lower.
The good news is that the winds have now diminished and the dark clouds are on the verge of lifting. It's time now to focus on the positive things to come instead of dwelling on the negatives of yester-year. That's the message the stock market is telling to anyone who will listen.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Stock Market Update: Buying the Bottom, Badda Bing! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
That was easy!! The markets have given us so much of what we've been expecting lately it's impossible to get it all into a single update, but long story short, badda bing badda boo, the main idea is that we were able to buy the low (again) and took the money at our target, which happened to be the high at the close Tuesday. We haven't been giving away as much lately in these free updates, but that doesn't mean we've stopped taking money from this market.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Dow Transports Set to Trend Higher / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
After a morning dip on profit-taking and because of still-higher oil prices (ahead of the API report), the iShares DJ Transportation Index ETF (AMEX: IYT) pivoted to the upside and has thrust above its nearest-term resistance line at 82.40, which triggers higher projections in my work to 83.80-84.20 next, on the way to a retest of much more important resistance at 86.40/50.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 10, 2008
UltraShort S&P Climbs to New Recovery High / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Although the ProShares UltraShort Inverted SPY ETF (AMEX: SDS) has climbed to a new recovery high at 70.52 today, my work continues to warn me that unless the buyers propel the price structure into a vertical thrust right from here, the likelihood is that the SDS will reverse from the channel resistance line and make another attempt to swoon towards the 68.00 support area, which is why I don't want to be long the SDS "up here."Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 10, 2008
Stock Market Hit by "V" for Vendetta Long-term Pattern / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
V for Vendetta is a 2006 film set in a dystopian future United Kingdom, where “V”, a mysterious anarchist wearing a Guy Fawkes costume, works to bring down an oppressive fascist government, profoundly affecting the people he encounters.
The following are some notable quotes from the film:
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 10, 2008
Stock Market Expected to Trend Lower Into April 08 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could also play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in process with a potential low in mid-April.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Stock Market Downtrend to Continue- No Sign of a Bottom / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: When this decline is over the market will be setup for an extend rally.
Short Term
After a bottom has been reached downside volume diminishes quickly.
Friday, March 07, 2008
Stock Market Forecast and Outlook for March 2008 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Hans_Wagner
If you want to beat the market, you need to invest with the trend. In looking at the trend, I believe it is best to begin with the big picture in mind and then work our way down to weekly and then daily views of the charts. You will notice that the chart and the value of the indicators change as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart. This is a normal part of the technical analysis.
Let's start with the long term view of the S&P 500. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) seems to be a good indicator of the cyclical bull and bear markets. In addition, the 78 week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acts as support in a bull market and resistance in a bear market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
Counter Trend Rally in Stock Market S&P 500 Index / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The plot thickens. In this morning's posting we discussed the likelihood of upside follow-through from yesterday's low at 1307.00 in the S&P 500 e-Mini contract, but that the index would have to hurdle and sustain above 1348.50 to trigger upside acceleration towards the op of the Feb-Mar range. As it turned ou, the e-SPH peaked so far at 1345.00 prior to its mid-session AMBAC swoon. More vital, however, is that the pattern carved out from 1307 to 1345 does NOT exhibit particularly bullish form.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 03, 2008
Stock Markets Targeting January Lows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Book-ending the month of February were to big sell-offs that left investors wondering if we were on the precipice of something truly large in the way of another major decline. While the first decline was more the ending to a very poor January, the one on Friday has investors questioning their views on the economy and the implications for stock prices in the weeks ahead.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 02, 2008
Stock Market On Target for Retest of January Lows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: We will probably see a multi month low in the next few weeks.
Short Term After a bottom has been reached downside volume diminishes quickly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Importance of the Ratio of Leadership Stocks to the Broad Market For Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Background : All sustainable and hold-able rallies have one thing in common. The Ratio of Leadership Stocks to the Broad Market is always positive and trending up to a high level. Simply look at the red bar graph below ... see when it was positive, and then look down at the NYA Index and you will see that these times all represented great upside rallies. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 25, 2008
New Upleg in Dow Jones Diamond ETF / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Here is the picture of the coil pattern as it applies to the Dow Diamonds ETF (AMEX: DIA), which shows that today's upside continuation of Friday's rally has positioned the price structure above the February resistance line, and just below key near-term resistance at 125.00 My near and intermediate-term work indicate that a new upleg started at Friday's pivot low of 121.56, within the Jan-Feb recovery period that should propel prices to test a more important resistance plateau at 128.00 next.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 25, 2008
Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis- Insiders Remain Bullish / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could also play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in process.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Stock Markets Expected To Restest January Lows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Although the market is likely to retest the January lows in the near future, it is unlikely the new low indicators will confirm the retest.
Short Term - The secondaries lead both up and down.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 21, 2008
New Recovery Upleg for S&P Stock Market Index? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Although th e-Mini S&P 500 (e-SPH) has given up its early gains, my sense is that the upmove from yesterday's low to this morning's high is the first upmove in a new recovery upleg that is destined to hurdle key "triple top" resistance at 1369.25-1371.50, and which should trigger upside acceleration towards a retest of the Feb high at 1400.00. From an intraday perspective, let's keep an eye on 1351/00, which represents the 50% pullback support area of the rally from yesterday's low to today's high, and which should contain forthcoming weakness if my bullish near-term count is to remain viable.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Stock Market Bears on the Defensive / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
I am not sure what to make of the whipsaw action in the ProShares UltraShort Inverted SPY ETF (AMEX: SDS) since Friday morning's surge that tested the Jan-Feb resistance line at 64.20. However, technically, that test failed! Now we find the price structure probing the vicinity of its opposite number: its Jan-Feb support line, now at 60.60, which must contain any forthcoming weakness to avert a potential downside acceleration (that represents a powerful advance in the major equity market ETFs). If the bears were in the drivers seat last Friday morning, they now find themselves on the defensive.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Stock Market Scenarios for the Week Ahead / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Here is a look at the two scenarios for the SPY -- the S&P 500 ETF. My
preferred count calls for a climb towards 140 prior to the completion of the
countertrend rally phase off of the January 22 low (126.00). However,
weakness that breaks and sustains below 131.70 will be problematic and
likely will trigger a plunge to new lows.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Stock Markets to Retest January Lows in Coming Months / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The bottom indicators are suggesting there is little risk in the market.
Short Term - After a bottom has been made downside volume (DV) dries up pretty quickly. That has not happened yet, but it is encouraging to see DV falling off faster in the small cap indices than the large cap indices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 14, 2008
UltraShort S&P Stock Market ETF on the Move / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Today's action in the ProShares UltraShort Inverted SPY (AMEX: SDS) has triggered preliminary indications that the upside directional move in the major market ETFs from February 7 into this morning open is complete, and that a period of pullback has started. If that proves to be the case, then the SDS should perform on the upside for a climb to at least 64.00/20, which should provide a hedge for my long XXH, XLF model portfolio positions, especially ahead of options expiration (tomorrow) and ahead of the approaching 3-day Presidents Holiday weekend.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Stock Market Rallies Determined by Liquidity Inflows and Outflows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
If you think of logically ... when money flows into the market, stocks are being bought. When the amount of Inflowing Liquidity is in Expansion , then more and more investors are entering the market ... and that drives prices up.
However, when Liquidity is out-flowing, it is a condition where investors are removing their capital from the market. That means the impetus is on selling, and the market pulls back. When out-flowing Liquidity deteriorates to the point where the net liquidity is in Contraction, then the market experiences a correction.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 11, 2008
Stock Market Signaling Intermediate Term Low and End to Short-term Correction This Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could also play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in process.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Stock Market Intermediate Term Bottom In Place - Expecting Stocks to Rally Next Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Although prices fell sharply last week the breadth indicators all held up well.
Short Term - Breadth has been improving.
Market breadth indicators are those derived from advancing issues and declining issues, new highs and new lows and upside and downside volume.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Investors Waiting to See Clarity on the US Economy / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Roger_Conrad
Greetings from the Orlando Money Show 2008, America's leading bazaar of investment opinion and products. There are many ways to make money in the markets, just as there are many ways to lose it. Not everyone is going to be interested in everything at the show. But there are few better places for individual investors to see this much at the same time.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
The Help Wanted Index vs. the US Recession Question ... / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
For years, I have followed the government's Help Wanted Ad numbers. The Help Wanted Ads are a precursor as to what will be happening on Employment in the future. As such, it is an important indicator to watch relative to recession questions.
I created this chart on Saturday that shows the Help Wanted data going back to 2005. What is noteworthy, is that for the past 2 years, the December and January Help Wanted numbers have all shown a drop over the October/November numbers. The big event has been February, where the Help Wanted ads zoom up higher than the preceding 2 or 3 months.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Dow Short ETF (DXD) Suggests Stock Market Strength / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
As many of you know, I examine the technical work of the inverted ultrashort equity ETFs to see if they provide clues about the direction of the major equity averages... Let's take a look at the pattern and technical underpinnings that have developed in the UltraShort Dow Diamond ETF (AMEX: DXD). Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Stock Market Awaiting Economic Signals and Follow-Through / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Taking a cue from my old DJ days, this past week could be summed in a couple of tracks from some scratchy wax – Give The People What They Want and More, More, More. The Fed has cut rates by 125 basis points with the most recent 50bp cut in less than 10 days – and once done, the markets were wondering if there would be another 50bp cut before their next meeting at the end of March. It took the Fed a full month in Jan 2001 to cut rates by 150bp – in the midst of the beginning phase of a recession.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 02, 2008
Stock Market Tug o' War Between Bulls and Bears / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
If the palpable struggle between the bulls and bears was not obvious this week, from early on Monday, through the Fed announcement, and right up to Friday's close … I'm not sure you're paying attention. But even if you could feel the tension, there's nothing like a few charts to really spell out the situation.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 02, 2008
Short-term Upside in S&P 500 & Nasdaq Stock Market Indices / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
This week we're looking at some short-term patterns for trading this volatile market, starting with the hourly chart on the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (SPY), as of just before Friday's close.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
S&P Stock Market Index Heading Higher / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The vast majority of my technical work points still higher in the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) before the recovery upleg runs its initial course on the upside. At this juncture, my pattern work indicates that prices are carving out a high level, near-term bullish consolidation area that should resolve itself to the upside either into, or in reaction to, tomorrow's FOMC decision.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 28, 2008
Stock Market Rally Expected to Continue / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in process.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Stock Market Update: The French 'Rogue Trader' Connection / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
You may recall in November and December I mentioned patterns that called for a Santa Claus rally extending into the first several months of '08. Now that we know of the colossal fraud at France 's second largest bank, I believe we probably would have seen that rally unfold if not for the liquidation of the massive Societie Generale long positions. As you know, the selling climaxed in the huge holiday selloff early this week and fostered lingering insecurity even after the emergency rate cut until we finally learned Wednesday who killed our rally: the French did it!!Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Stock Market Dominant Trend Remains Down / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
In the end, investors and traders really did not want to go home long equities Friday, even after the Fed's emergency rate cut on Tuesday, which is certainly not a confidence builder. Maybe the bulls will feel a bit more confident after the weekend.
In any case, I think it is fitting for us to take a look at this week's
price range in the S&P 500 and to notice that all of the action, including
the post rate-cut rally, has transpired below the last week's critical
breakdown plateau at 1362.50.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Stock Market Gloom and Doom - “Granville's Golden Rule” Versus Conventional Wisdom / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clif_Droke
Market forecaster Joe Granville was a colorful character in what has always been perceived as a staid and conservative business. The great stock market guru of the 1970s was known for his outlandish antics and prescient market forecasts.
He would often appear at lectures wearing garish costumes, including blinking bow ties, electrified sunglasses, togas, Elvis costumes and chicken outfits. Infamously, he was known for dropping his pants and reading stock quotes to surprised observers.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 25, 2008
Institutional Selling Goes Opposite to Stock Market Direction / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Every day, on our paid subscriber website, we show and rate 9 underlying fundamental conditions that are critical relative to rallies and corrections.
This morning, we will share one of them with you ... The rate and trend in Selling by Institutional Investors.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Dow Jones Stock Market Diamond Pattern Formation / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Captain_Hook
At first glance at the title above, because of the proliferation of Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's), with Dow Diamonds one of the most highly traded examples, one might think a discussion on the related subject matter is what we intend to talk about here today. Of course if you were an experienced market technician, and have been following the trade of late, you might have known right away this is not the case at all. You would have known what we are talking about is a technical formation in the trade that acts as a pivot at tops, usually in relation to larger degree trading ranges. And you also may have known that the Dow is almost finished tracing out another diamond at present, with the timing and circumstances when compared to the 1999 / 2000 sequence similar enough to take notice. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 21, 2008
US Stock Markets - Near Term Bottom or Waterfall Crash? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
Hauntingly Familiar
Here we are once again, suddenly embroiled amid a frenzy of financial crisis, and looming bail-out interventions.
The jury is still out as to whether or not this crisis will turn out to be “the big one” that will take down the entire house of cards.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 21, 2008
Stock Market Wake-up Call / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
Two years ago I made a call that anyone who's read this newsletter long enough will remember or at least have heard about. In July 2006, with the market at multi-month lows, TTC got long the S&P futures for a move to 1360 that seemed incredible at the time – certainly no one else was seeing it, let alone trading it. But, by October the S&P futures had rapidly advanced 200 points and my target was hit.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 18, 2008
US Stock Markets Dome Top Signals Tragic End of the Bull Market / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clive_Maund
The large top area now forming in the main US stock market indices is now approaching completion. Given the horrifying fundamentals it is a wonder that they haven't broken down and gone into freefall already. Only 2 things have supported the market since the major financial crisis burst out into the open last August. One is massive injections of liquidity - money that was created artificially out of nowhere by the Fed and central banks worldwide in order to paper over the cracks and buy time, which must feed through into higher inflation. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Stock Markets Fall to Critical Support - The Moment of Truth? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Are we approaching a "moment of truth"? ... where the market finds a bottom, or loses critical support that has a more serious down move?
Let's explore 3 charts where we can get an understanding of the juncture we have now come to.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Stock Markets Oversold, Bottom Imminent / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The market is likely to be at or near a short term bottom.
Short Term
My daily history of the S&P mid cap index (MID) begins in 1991. Including the period that ended last Tuesday there have been 3 occasions when the index has fallen for 9 consecutive days. The others were the period before and after 9/11/2001 and late August 1998. 9/11/2001 is obviously a special case, but there are numerous similarities between August 1998 and the current period including a threat to the financial system by the failure of Long Term Capital Management which, like Citibank, Merrill Lynch and Countrywide, was considered too big to fail.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Stock Market Update: Trading the Deceptive Triangle Bounce / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
I can't go publicly posting the charts members pay for, but I can say that, as an example, as the weekly update was being posted here last Saturday, TTC members, whether scalpers, swing traders or position traders, were all receiving several forward looking charts describing the big picture and laying out our plans for the days ahead. The chart below was such a one, showing the triangle that the concurrent update said “many traders see.” Well, the market rarely if ever gives the crowd what they're expecting. The chart above from the Saturday weekly forum shows our immediate expectation for a deceptive bounce that would have as many as possible trading the triangle only to reverse them down into the lower trendline.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
US Stock Markets Developing Significant Topping Formations / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
A relatively impressive recovery rally during the final 30 minutes of
trading, or was it?
In fact, based on the pattern carved-out by the Q's, no upside reversal was
recorded.
The Q's certainly "looped" down again to retest this morning's low at 47.43, which held the onslaught (at 47.47), and which has helped turn the price structure to the upside for another run at key near term resistance at 48.50/65. But unless and until that resistance area is hurdled, I will not venture into the long side of the Q's. Why?
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 06, 2008
Stock Market Update: Reacting to Price Movements in Realtime / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
Back in January 2007, this update promised volatility for the new year and, now that it's in the history books, we know that promise was delivered: 2007 was the year of volatility. Last week's update said to expect the volatility will continue – it didn't abandon the possibility of new highs in the S&P, but did express some skepticism about the Dec. 30 rally, which suggested more work needed to be done on the downside. And, after the holiday celebration, the market got exactly that, with Friday's slide into the close erasing December's gains and again making good on the promise of volatility.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 05, 2008
Stock Market Oversold - Rally Expected Next Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The market is oversold and likely to rally from here.
Short Term - The Russell 2000 (R2K) rose for 6 consecutive days through December 26 then fell for 6 consecutive days as of last Friday. This is pretty unusual, having occurred only 6 other times since 1979.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
Stock Market Trends for 2008 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clif_Droke
The year 2007 was marked by pessimism, doom and gloom, and a never-ending fusillade of fear. The mainstream press never tired of hypnotizing into believing the stock market would collapse, a downfall which never materialized.
With all the talk of the weak dollar and the predictions of a worsening liquidity crisis, prognosticators have all but written off the prospects for a bullish 2008. Calls for a recession in the year ahead are also on the rise. What these analysts have failed to grasp is that there never was a liquidity crisis to begin with. By definition, tight money is reflected by rising interest rates and falling money supply indicators. Just the opposite is the case today.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 31, 2007
Stock Market Seasonal and Cyclic Forecast for 2008 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-yr cycle is approaching its mid-point and some of its dominant components have topped and may be restraining the bullish effect of the 4.5-yr. This could lead to another period of consolidation in 2008 with an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate Trend - The intermediate-term trend which had been in a correction since the index reached 1576 has now resumed its up move, but the corrective pattern could be extended if a new high is not achieved soon.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 30, 2007
January Usually Strong for Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Most of the major indices will finish up for the year.
Short Term - As of last Wednesday the market was overbought.
The Russell 2000 (R2K) had been up for 6 consecutive days as of Wednesday's close and that had happened 3 other times in the past year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Stock Markets Entering Strongest Seasonal Period - 2008 Presidential Year Cycle Strength / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: We are in the seasonally strongest period of the year. Since 1928, during the last 5 trading days of the year, the S&P 500 (SPX) has been up 82% of the time with an average gain of 1.11%. During the 3 rd year of the Presidential Cycle it has been up 95% of the time. 1987 was the only down year.
Short Term - Seasonal considerations overwhelm everything else in the short term.
Intermediate Term - Indicators of all styles and durations get distorted this time of the year when the market drifts upward on low volume with the secondaries leading.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Silent Stock Market Crash in the Banking Sector / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
There weren't many voices last weekend calling for a bullish reversal and rally in stocks. Come to think of it, were there any besides TTC at all? It seems that once again, just as in about the last dozen or so major market turns, this newsletter was alone in championing a bullish count while the entire online analysis community grew increasingly bearish and insisted the top was in. Now as a strong finish to the week puts us back within about 70 points of the all-time highs, bears are again forced to rethink their positions in the face of a market that threatens to grind higher through year-end and could still potentially explode upwards.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Financial Markets about to be Hit Hard by Wall Street Bond Insurers Downgrades / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: So much is happening so fast — and so few pundits grasp its true significance — I decided to send you this special afternoon edition to give you a heads up.
Here are the latest developments:
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Value Stocks Crash Reaches 50 Per Cent! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Steve_Selengut
Perhaps this (totally ignored by the media) snippet will pique your attention: on December 18, 2007, nearly 50% of all Investment Grade Value Stocks were down an average of over 30% from their 52-week highs... the Dow and the S&P 500 had fallen just 7%!Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Small Caps Should Continue to Trail Blue ChipsŠwhile Nasdaq Q's Have Short-term Upside / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Well, time to dust off the daily QQQQ chart again, which shows the major
channel the Q's carved out from the July 2006 low to the October 2007 high.
My preferred scenario argues (still) that the November 12 low at 48.75 ended
the first portion of an intermediate-term correction that eventually will
resume its decline towards a test of the lower channel support line, now in
the vicinity of 47.30.
"Eventually?" Yes, because from the November 12 low, both my pattern and
oscillator work indicate that the initial rally to the December 11 peak at
52.84 represented the first phase of an "intervening recovery rally" that
has unfinished business on the upside into the 53.00 area prior to the
plunge towards the lower channel support line.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Markets Indicating a Freeze on Mortgage Resets is likely to Repair the Credit Narkets and Bolster Earnings Growth / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Greg_Silberman
As market practitioners we are more concerned with the markets reaction to news than the news itself. Yesterday's announcement that Variable Mortgage resets could be frozen for 5-years is telling in that regard.During the 1980s the international community got fed up with South Africa's Apartheid policies. Their response was to punish South Africa economically through broad sweeping trade sanctions (which ultimately brought the country to its knees). One far reaching measure was to shut the South African Government and its Corporations out of the international Debt markets. No new debt could be issued internationally.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Investor Flight to Safety is Negative for Small Cap Stocks / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Donald_W_Dony
The trickle down affect of the U.S. subprime debacle is more far reaching than most investors may suspect. The obvious surface reaction is the negative outcome in the financial and housing sectors. Stocks in these areas have seen their values plunge in recent months. In addition, the Fed is prepared to cut rates to help stabilize the markets and in doing so, pulls whatever frail amount of support that exists from under the U.S. dollar. This move, in turn, provides increasing upward pressure to gold. But the area that is equally important and often missed in the subprime fiasco is the reaction or need for safety from investors.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 10, 2007
Strong Stock Markets as the Government Comes to the Rescue! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
The government to the rescue! Early last week, it looked as though we would get serious about going lower, and then came a cash infusion for Citigroup and this week, the President announced a “bailout” for some homeowners – as long as you fit into the relatively narrow criterion. Stock investors, especially those in the housing/financing related issues took flight, rising by at least 10% over the past two weeks. The economy supported some of the move, as recessionary fears moved to the back burner.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 09, 2007
Stock Market Update: The Remedy to Sideways Markets / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
If Friday felt like a real sleeper, then I'm sorry to say we may have a few more days' sideways trading in store for us ahead of the Fed. At TTC we currently have three distinct patterns for this rally off the recent lows, but by Tuesday evening we'll be looking to have one or two of those invalidated. And as alternates are eliminated, we continue to buy and sell every wiggle.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 08, 2007
Stock Market Overbought But Entering Bullish Seasonal Period / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The market has come off a bottom and seasonally next week has a very positive bias.
Short Term : The market is overbought.
In the 8 trading days from the Monday after Thanksgiving through last Thursday the S&P 500 (SPX) was up 7.2%. Some other indices were up even more, the Dow Jones Transports up 11.7%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 07, 2007
Wall Street Once Again Resumes Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Regent_Markets
Wall Street resumed its rally this week after new data showed the overall economy is holding up, but isn't so strong as to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates says Betonmarket's Michael Wright. The Dow Jones industrial average saw an increase of nearly 200 points on Wednesday.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
United States For Sale - Who is Buying... / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: One of the catalysts for last week's stock market rally was the news that Citigroup received a $7.5-billion injection from the Gulf Arab emirate of Abu Dhabi. In exchange, Abu Dhabi now owns 4.9% of Citigroup.
That's on top of the 3.9% that Saudi Arabian Prince al-Waleed bin Talal already owned, which means that foreigners now own a huge chunk of one of America's largest and most prestigious banks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Stock Market Technicals Suggest Cascading Bear Market Coming / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
The three month daily chart below is showing a sell signal on momentum oscillators, an overbought “slow” stochastic, and an OBV buy signal that looks like it wants to abort.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
S&P 500 Index Medium Term Cycles Analysis / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Jim_Curry
S&P 500 CASH Index S&P 500 Cash Index - 11/30/07 Close - 1481.14
SPX CASH: 5-Day Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1526; Low - 1444
DEC SP: 5-Day Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1528; Low - 1446
SPX CASH: Monthly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1513; Low - 1374
SPX CASH: Yearly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1531; Low - 1319
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 03, 2007
Stock Markets Headed for a New All Time High / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market.
SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-yr cycle is approaching its mid-point and some of its dominant
components are topping and should soon restrain the bullish effect of the 4.5-yr. This could lead to
another period of consolidation in 2008 with an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate Trend - The intermediate-term trend which had been in a correction since the index reached 1576 has now resumed its up move.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 03, 2007
The Grinch Who Stole the Christmas Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: David_Petch
The following article was written one week ago, so it is possible the termination point of wave G was one week early. When broad market indices are in a bear market, sharp rallies that appear out of the blue (such as the sharp three day rally last week) are linked to short squeezes…this further confirms the S&P is still in a bear market. The rally last week terminated wave F, so wave G is now forming. If the labeling is correct, albeit one week early, Monday should be an up day in the S&P followed by a retracement of the last week's advance by 50-80% for the rest of next week. If a decline in wave G occurs, it will match the expected December 7-10 th rally point, albeit in a different wave structure. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 02, 2007
Stock Market Update: Trading By the Book / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
It's not easy trading against the crowd. It's tough to get long and put real money on the line when everywhere you go you hear about the market crashing, about a looming 3 rd wave down, about breakdowns, write downs, and basically the end of the bull market. But buy in the face of all that bearishness is exactly what we did at TTC for no other reason than that we tune out the rest and simply trade the charts.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 01, 2007
Stock Markets Headed Higher Into New Year / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: · It is likely we saw an intermediate term low last Monday.
Short Term : As of last Wednesday everything turned sharply upward. Most importantly, new lows all but disappeared on both the NYSE and NASDAQ. This implies a lower risk profile for the next month or two.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 01, 2007
Is This Stock Market Rally for Real? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Michael_Pento
The U.S. stock market had its biggest two-day advance in the last five years, sending the S&P 500 up 4.4% since Tuesday. The questions investors are asking: Will this trend continue, and is now a good time to get on board for an end of the year rally?Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Stock Market Long-Term Bull Trend Still Intact / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
This is a very interesting and important chart right about now. Let's take a closer lookŠand what we see is that this week's action (so far) represents a key upside reversal, which, if the S&P 500 sustains above 1456.70, will indicate a significant change in market direction (UP).
The fact that the recent decline plunged towards the August low (1370.60)
but managed to hold at an equally important support coordinate along the
2003-07 support line suggests strongly to me that the longer-term dominant
uptrend remains very much intact.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Stock Markets Santa Rally? Sell the Rally! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Call today the "running of the bulls." In my youth, I visited the running of the bulls in Pamplona , Spain . It was very messy and nerve wracking, to say the least. Not to mention those who were gored or trampled. As much as participants planned ahead, the bulls would do what they wanted, so you always had to have a backup plan. Today appears to be the last hurrah for the bulls. Any advance beyond this should be considered noise.
Move over, Santa, the Grinch is coming.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Stock Market Discounting a Weak US Economy During 2008 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Roger_Conrad
December is almost always a great month to be holding utility stocks. Big institutions typically use the time to re-jigger their portfolios to safer fare, and those who've won big during the year will often move to safe havens to better lock in their gains.
The only really bad Decembers for utes have come in the wake of a crisis of fundamentals. One such time was in 1993, as fear and panic began to spread about prospective deregulation. December 2001 was another lousy month, as fallout from the ENRON bankruptcy gripped the industry. And though the worst of the dreadful utility bear market was over by then, December 2002 was no picnic either.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Stock Markets To Decline Towards Tradeable Bottom During the Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: · The market is near a tradable low.
Short Term As of last Wednesday the Russell 2000 (R2K) was down for 6 consecutive days for the first time since July 2006 and for only the 4 th time in the last 5 years. This is an oversold condition that usually occurs near the beginning and end of bear markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Retail Sector Stocks - Will Black Friday be Black or "in the Green" ? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
1. Its Black Friday, when retailers typically get 10% of their sales today. U.S. and Foreign markets will be closely watching what happens here today. Early this morning, Macy stores were reporting more traffic and sales than last year and they are expecting a really good day. The test for today comes around 2 PM to 3 PM when shoppers come back or drop in numbers. Watch for what happens in the markets from 3 PM to 4 PM today.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Stock Market Bounce Coming - Sucker Rally? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
The Dow Jones Industrial Index is now badly oversold from a technical perspective, and it looks more likely that the markets will bounce up than “collapse”.
Having said this, the most important chart in the array of charts seems to be the Dow Jones Industrial Index below.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Dow Jones Trend Breaking Down Below Critical Support Signaling US Recession / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss and Mike Larson write: U.S. stocks are doing precisely what we expected them to do.
One by one, sector by sector, they're breaking down below critical support levels on the charts ... plunging in a virtual free-fall ... and signaling the beginning of an imminent, unavoidable, potentially deep recession in America.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Stock Market Investing - The November Syndrome / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Steve_Selengut
Sweet November... well, not really: The war lingers on for purposes unknown to most and oil prices continue to rise. Credit woes dominate the financial headlines, and value stocks seem intent on extending their correction into a seventh month. Investors want a stronger dollar while lower interest rates (and lower taxes) are clearly more beneficial. Neither political party has a candidate that supports real tax reform for both investors and corporate job creators, nor has the counter productive United States Regulation Industry stopped growing faster than most world economies.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Stock Market Weekly Update: Rallies to Order / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
Members and regular readers will find an important message about the future of TTC at the bottom of this update, but for now, let's simply recall a statement from last week: Now, just as some big names are calling this the end of the bull market, we're willing to go it alone and say this is probably closer to the end of the selling than the beginning, and, if that assessment is correct, we'll be seeing the market turn soon and rally hard, quite likely taking us to new highs.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Stock Markets Headed Higher in Seasonally Strong Period / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: · The market is oversold going into a seasonally strong period.
Short Term : Last Monday the market extended its decline to a fourth consecutive down day setting up for the big counter trend rally on Tuesday. After rallying on Tuesday the Russell 2000 (R2K) fell for 3 consecutive days for the first time since last August. In this calendar year the R2K has not declined for more than 3 consecutive days so a rally is due.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 17, 2007
NY Stock Exchange Contracting Margin Debt Levels Sending Bearish Message / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Yesterday, I looked at the NYSE Margin Debt levels. On a short term basis, they don't tell you a whole lot, but from a longer term perspective they do tell a story.
Sometimes, I think of the NYSE margin levels as being similar to monetary liquidity or credit crunch conditions. When margin debt is expanding, investors are confident and expose themselves to more risk in expectation of a rising stock market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 16, 2007
Dow Jones Stock Market Index Gives On Balance Volume Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
November 19th 2007 - Revisited : The chart below is a close-up of the Dow Jones Industrial Index as at close of business in the USA on November 15th 2007 (courtesy bigcharts.com )
This looks suspiciously like an OBV sell signal to me. The primary argument of the protagonists of On-Balance-Volume (invented by Joseph Granville) is that ‘volume precedes price'. Therefore, an OBV sell signal should precede a decline in stock prices and we should expect a sell signal in price.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 12, 2007
Nasdaq Ripe for Potent Recovery Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The Q's made yet another new reaction low this morning at 49.60, prior to reversing for a rally above 50.00. The new corrective low pierced but did not sustain below key 50% Fibonacci support at 49.80, which is a constructive sign that perhaps the vicious decline has seen its worst for now. My near-term work has turned up in a strong way, suggesting too that the Q's are ripe for a potent recovery rally period that should propel prices into the 51.50-52.00 target zone.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Stock Market Weekly Update: Trading by Numbers / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
It was nice to see more of our membership coming in tune with the rhythm of Wall Street this week rather than always being stuck a move behind. The gems in the Nasdaq finally turned into trash this week and, with the help of the financials, had the whole market trading lower. We don't tend to buy high-flyers or sell into holes, but this week really had most Ellioticians scratching their heads.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 11, 2007
US Stock Markets Oversold But More Downside Expected / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: · The blue chip decline is accelerating which suggests we are approaching at least an intermediate term low.
Short Term
This year there have been 3 sharp declines, the first in late February – early March the second in Late July – early August and last week.
Thursday, November 08, 2007
S&P 500 Violates 1-Year Moving Average Support / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The big picture of the cash SPX shows that the index has violated its 1-year moving average at 1465 and has the form of an incomplete decline that points next into the 1430/25 target zone. Let's notice that the weekly RSI is pointed straight down and likely is a big warning signal to us that we should expect downside pressure to continue until a considerably oversold condition is established, which is another way of saying that we should look for the SPX to press below 1430/25 to test the powerful 2003-2007 trendline, now at 1390. Rallies from a near-term oversold condition should continue to be short-lived in the upcoming hours.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Wall Street Tumbles 360 As The Bear Awakes / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Regent_Markets
Wall Street suffered yet another big drop last week, with investors worried about the spreading fallout from the credit crisis at banks, and about a dollar that just keeps getting weaker. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 360 points on Wednesday, coincidently just about matching its post FOMC drop on Thursday November 1st says Betonmarket.com 's Michael WrightRead full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
Potential Top Formation in S&P 500 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Notice the potentially massive top pattern that has formed on the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY), which is in stark contrast to the still viable uptrend pattern evidenced by the Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (NASDAQ: QQQQ).Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
How to Beat the Market by Playing the Federal Reserver US Interest Rate Cuts / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Hans_Wagner
On October 31, 2007 the Federal Reserve lowered the Fed Funds and Discount rates by 0.25%. This is the second Fed Funds Rate reduction and the third for the Discount rate. In their announcement the Fed hinted that investors should not expect another rate move at their next meeting on December 11, 2007. In the hours after the announcement the market jumped up. The next day it fell on bad news from Citigroup regarding sub-prime mortgage loan write offs. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 04, 2007
Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis - Large Caps Oversold Expectations of Uptrend to Resume / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market.
SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-yr cycle is approaching its mid-point and some of its dominant components are topping and should soon restrain the bullish effect of the 4.5-yr. This could lead to another period of consolidation in 2008 with an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate Trend - The intermediate-term trend has been up since the 4.5yr cycle low in August and
is currently correcting.
Sunday, November 04, 2007
Stock Market Weekly Update: How to Keep Your Profits / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
This was another one of those weeks where a lot of traders who were holding profits one day, saw them vanish the next, sometimes literally overnight. If this was you, I can pretty safely say what you weren't doing – getting out of your positions while the getting was still good. At TTC we have one simple strategy for keeping our profits … it's called “take the money and run” (TMAR).Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 03, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 3rd Nov 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: · The NYSE composite hit an all time high, NASDAQ 100 (NDX) and the NASDAQ composite (OTC) hit a multi year highs last week.
Short Term
The Hindenburg Omen, a signal developed by Jim Miekka, has received a lot of publicity lately. The signal has had some false positives, but it has also preceded every major decline. The parameters are: NYSE new highs and new lows must both exceed 2.8% of NYSE issues traded (currently 93).
Saturday, November 03, 2007
Seriously Bearish Stock Market News - Downward Pressure On Exxon's Margins / Companies / US Stock Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
The following table shows Exxon's Gross Profit Margins over various periods:
| PERIOD ENDING | 30-Jun-07 |
31-Mar-07 |
31-Dec-06 |
30-Sep-06 |
| Total Revenue | $ 98,350,000 |
$ 87,223,000 |
$ 90,028,000 |
$ 99,593,000 |
| Cost of Revenue | $ 55,658,000 |
$ 47,597,000 |
$ 26,554,000 |
$ 64,537,000 |
| Gross Profit | $ 42,692,000 |
$ 39,626,000 |
$ 63,474,000 |
$ 35,056,000 |
| GP % | 43.4% |
45.4% |
70.5% |
35.2% |
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 03, 2007
Investors Dumping Financial Stocks - A Gallery of Crowd Behavior / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Doug_Wakefield
Investors BELIEVE that bank stocks are not the place to be.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Hunt for Stock Market Juncture Inflection Points / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Brady_Willett
The GM and Ford debt downgrades in 2006, the Amaranth blowup, the mini-market crash in China in March 2007, and the subprime debacle/credit crunch that started in July. The common theme following these and other events was that the U.S. equity markets quickly rebounded following a brief period of heightened investor fear. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 29, 2007
NOLTE NOTES - Stock Market Rally on Low Volume - What, Me Worry? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Oil prices rise, the markets rise, as demand for oil remains high, indicating that the global economy is still chugging along. Oil prices decline and the markets rally, as lower oil prices will add to consumer's ability to spend. Let's face it; the markets are not really paying attention to oil prices, other than a convenient reason for a market rally. However, that rally is coming on lower volume and less participation than at any time since the August bottom.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Stock Market Weekly Update: Rumor Has It / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
Don't get the idea from reading this update that performing real time Elliott wave analysis is easy, or that consistently selling tops and buying bottoms is something you can learn how to do overnight. It's not, and if that's the rumor you've been hearing, it's as wrong as this week's emergency Fed meeting. But do understand that making money by finding favorable risk/reward entries and exits is exactly what we do at TTC, week in and week out, through our rigor and vigilance and determination. And, what's more, if you're willing to be patient and pay attention, we can teach you to do the same!Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Roaring Into the Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Thinking outloud: Frankly, a sharply falling dollar coupled with sharply rising (historic) oil prices amidst credit and housing crises would not be considered my ideal background for a roaring bull market in equities.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 25, 2007
New Upleg for the Ultrashort S&P / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
My sense in this crazy volatile market is that the ProShares UltraShort S&P ETF (AMEX: SDS) correction from Monday's high at 53.60 likely ended earlier today at 51.07, which happens also to coincide with a "healthy" pullback of about 40% of the entire advance from the 10/11 low at 47.50 to the 10/22 high at 53.60. The structure of the correction, its magnitude, and the upside pivot from 51.07 to 52.00 argue strongly that the SDS has started a new upleg that should climb above 53.60 on the way to 54.75-55.25 next.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Labor Department Institutionalizes Speculation / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Tim_Iacono
One day, the "asset prices must always be pushed higher" approach toward preventing the U.S. economy from succumbing to the gravitational pull of deflation will run its course and the " rentier culture " will beat a hasty retreat back to wherever it is they came, but after the decision the other day by the Labor Department to require new employees to invest in stocks if they make no other choice during what is normally a very confusing first day at their new job, well, the hasty retreat has been pushed back a little bit.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 25, 2007
How and Why the Banking Index is Dragging Down the S&P, Plus China Shanghai Index Update / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
The S&P 500 is a key index that is watched by the Institutional Investors. Why? Because, it is the best measure of the economy with its large companies that cover a nicely balanced, diverse group of market Sectors. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
The Sham US Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clive_Maund
When the S&P500 index broke to new highs at the end of May and again in recent weeks there was a great media fanfare. In this brief article, which is actually directed at that select band of readers who are more interested in reality than illusion, we are going to examine this ?remarkable accomplishment? to see just how remarkable it really was. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 22, 2007
Ceiling on Today's S&P Index Attempted Upside Reversal / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Heading into the final hour of trading the e-Mini S&P 500 so far has hit my initial recovery target zone of 1515/18, which for the time being has put a ceiling on today's attempted upside reversal. The e-SPZ has given up its gains of about 9-10 points, but is circling unchanged, which represents a recovery of around 13-14 points off of the overnight low.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Opportunity knocks / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
Crises = opportunity. There is no better vantage point from which to anticipate the pending course of events than the effective study and interpretation of dynamic price-chart data.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis - Current Trend is Corrective / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market.
SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-yr cycle is approaching its mid-point and some of its dominant components are topping and should soon restrain the bullish effect of the 4.5-yr. This could lead to another period of consolidation in 2008 with an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate Trend - The intermediate-term trend has been up since the 4.5yr cycle low in August, but it must get the 12-mo cycle out of the way before it can resume.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Stock Market Update: Hit With the Ugly Stick / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
No doubt about it, stocks really took a beating this week! Who was thinking as the major indices put in record highs earlier this month that we'd take this kind of a tumble so quickly? Well, members at TTC did!
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Stock Markets Expected to Retreat from Fibonacci Retracement Level / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Fibonacci numbers are ignored by many investors and not understood. However, the Fibonacci retracement values of 38.2% and 61.8% are often very useful as we will see today.
Below is a chart, of how the "Core Holdings" held by Institutions have performed since 1998. In early 2000, the index peaked and started a huge, bear market retreat. The absolute low was reached in 2002.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Nasdaq Narrowing Range Suggests Downside Breakdown / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Do you believe the tight range in the Q's (Nasdaq: QQQQ) today? One thing is for sure -- this narrow range should not last much longer prior to a spike in one direction or other. Meanwhile, the key support line off of the 9/20 low at 49.92, which cuts across the price axis now at 52.80, remains intact and is containing further price deterioration. A violation of 52.70 and downside follow-through are necessary to trigger more significant sell signals that point to 51.75/50 next. On the other hand, a climb above 53.28/30 is needed to trigger upside continuation to at least 53.50/60.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Dow Jones 22,000 vs Gold $1,500 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dudley_Baker
Remember a few years ago when several books were published with titles, like, Dow 40,000, Dow 22,000, Dow 36,000, Dow 39,000. This was in late 1999 and early 2000 at the then top of the internet bubble and with the Nasdaq and the Dow hitting highs. Exuberance was everywhere.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 15, 2007
Stock Markets Headed Lower As Near-term Low Is UltraShort S&P / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The big picture of the UltraShort SPY (AMEX: SDS) shows Thursday's counter-trend reversal, followed by Friday's dip, followed by today's upside continuation that has hurdled Thursday's reversal high. So far, the price action coupled with the rounded bottom pattern carved out by the RSI momentum gauge suggests strongly that a significant near-term (and possibly intermediate-term) low has been established in the SDS (a high in the major equity market ETFs).Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Stock Market Update: Niagara in a Barrel / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
By now, those of you who read this update regularly but aren't members must think what we say about what we do at TTC is just too good to be true. That we're just lucky bulls. I mean, week after week the market bucks some of the best traders and analysts out there, yet I continue to claim unbiased Elliott wave analysis produces consistently profitable trades and avoids all the traps. Go figure.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Equities Topping But Crude Oil Has Further Higher to Gush / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
So far, Thursday's plunge in the Nasdaq, as gauged by the QQQQ's, represents only a "minor" pullback within the dominant August-Ocotber uptrend -- unless, of course, this recovery rally represents an impending secondary failure at the top of the Aug-Sept channel.
My work argues that it is the latter, and that the Q's will grind a bit higher on Monday, and then put in a second high coordinate within a near-term topping process in the 53.00-54.00 area.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Stock Market Analysis Suggests a Drop of More than 10% - The Fingers of Instability, Part 8 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Ty_Andros
Series Introduction – Click Here
Tea Leaves
In this edition of Fingers of Instability we are going to look at the last ninety days since the July Highs in stocks and commodities and look at what the numerous markets, including money supply, credit markets, stocks, gold, copper crude oil, and the dollar, have done since that time. It offers an interesting perspective on what has transpired and the finger prints of what we can expect in the near future. This issue has many interesting charts and graphs for perspective. However, we must key off money and credit creation first and foremost as it colors everything else. Regular readers know I have outlined the emerging “Crack up Boom” (see Tedbit archives at www.TraderView.com ) and the indirect exchange, as outlined by Ludwig Von Mises, that we will be seeing for maybe the next decade or more. It is on plain display in this missive.
Monday, October 08, 2007
NOLTE NOTES - Stock Market Rally - Where's the Volume? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Imagine watching your favorite football team on a Sunday afternoon and hearing the following from the announcers: “without any penalty flags, the (your team!) will be starting at the 50 yard line instead of inside the 5 where the ball was whistled dead”. You'd be turning up the volume way high to figure out what just happened. The economic figures on employment could be viewed the same way – after indicating the economy lost jobs last month, this month showed a gain AND the prior to months were revised to show decent gains – with little explanation.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 08, 2007
Stock Market Technical Analysis : Anyone Hearing Bells? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
You know what they say, they don't ring a bell at the top. This is not my top call, and readers should know I actually take great pride in having had the discipline to not call a top back in July, particularly since those levels were just taken out this week. But still, I know for the short term, at least, I'm going to be watching closely to see if there is anything getting started on the downside. Seems a bit like going against the trend, I know, but isn't that what we always do?Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 07, 2007
Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis 7th October 2007 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market.SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-yr cycle is approaching its mid-point and some of its dominant components are topping and should soon restrain the bullish effect of the 4.5-yr. This could lead to another period of consolidation in 2008 with an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate Trend - The intermediate-term trend has been up since the 4.5yr cycle low in August, but it could shortly be interrupted by a short-term correction.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 07, 2007
US Stock Markets Long and Short-term Outlook / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
Is a full-blown buying-panic about to ensue, or are we approaching a near-term, or perhaps a more significant cresting terminal of major import?
The answer is painfully clear. Nobody knows but the esteemed Mr. Price.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 06, 2007
S&P Stock Market Index in Final Upleg / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) are only about $0.30 from making new multi-year highs above the July high of 156.00. Remarkable though this upmove has been in the "aftermath" of the credit crisis (as if it is no longer a crisis at all), my overall work leaves little doubt that today's thrust is the final upleg in the Aug-Oct advance.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Preparing for a Stock Market Peak / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Today's action in the Nasdaq neither confirmed a near-term peak nor confirmed that the action off of Monday's new multi-year high represents a bullish congestion pattern ahead of another upleg.
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
US Investment Outlook - 4th Quarter 2007 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: David_Urban
So long as the dollar continues its freefall stock prices will rise. This will be more due to the collapse of the dollar than anything else. If you are in the US it will be a very good time to invest in large cap stocks but the best investments will be in gold and oil alternatives.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Stock Market Update: Eyes of the Beholder / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
Last week's update warned that “big moves are still out there, building just below the surface”, but they didn't really materialize in this mostly sideways week as Wall Street looked to dress up its balance books at the close of the quarter. Financials, for example, were untouchable on Friday after trading higher earlier in the week on a spurious rumor about Warren Buffet and Bear Sterns. Oh jeez, it's enough to make someone forget about the news and just trade the charts!Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Stock Market Update: Don't Fool with the Fed! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
Did someone order a breakout? Or a bear sandwich? The Feds went hunting for shorts again this week with a 50 basis point cut in their overnight target rate that sparked the biggest one day rally in years. And, just like after their surprise cut of the discount rate in August, short positions were forced to cover en masse as there was little if anything to suggest in advance such a dramatic policy shift was forthcoming.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 21, 2007
Why following Stock Market Liquidity Inflows or Outflows are Very Important ... / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Liquidity levels and inflows are a critical element in the stock market, just as they are for Corporations and family finances.
Our Liquidity model is simple to understand. When in Expansion, the amount of liquidity flowing in is positive. When in Contraction, more liquidity is flowing out than in.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Historical Analysis of Stock Market Behavior Following Fed Interest Rate Cuts / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Chris_Ciovacco
Developments in financial markets since the Committee's last regular meeting have increased the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of these and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.." - Federal Open Market Committee, 09/18/2007
With the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowering its target discount rate (interest rate) by 0.50% on September 18, 2007, it is prudent to examine how stocks behaved in the year following similar historical rate cuts. I chose to focus on the Fed rate cuts in 1986, 1995, 1998, and 2001 since the current Target Federal Funds Rate (Fed Funds Rate) of 5.25% (prior to the cut) and the current published inflation rate of 2.50% are similar to the rates found in those years.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Stock Market Analysis - Who really has control right now ... the Bulls or the Bears? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
There are different ways of measuring what is happening in the markets. Indexes measure the market, but some indexes are price weighted, some are market value-weighted or market share-weighted, and some are float weighted. It is sometimes why, a few stocks can have an over exaggerated impact on the movement of an index.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 08, 2007
Stock Markets - Hope Floats: Fear Still Distant / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
Anchors Away: The financial sphere along with the ruling army of entrenched corporate and political elites, deeply committed and harboring inordinate interest in perpetuating an unsustainable war/debt-based prosperity paradigm - are keeping their fingers tightly-crossed that “hope” and illusion, along with a likely forthcoming tsunami of ponzi-rigged bailout schemes will float the right number of boats - rather than sink the good-ship Lollie-Pop. It is in all of our best interest that all such hope truly “float,” unlike the sinking anchor and shackle effects of fiat currency.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 07, 2007
S&P 500 Stock Market Index Trading in a Range / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
From a BIG picture perspective of the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY), my sense is that the price structure is traversing a range between 149-150 on the high side, juxtaposed against 145 to 143.50 on the low side. A climb above 150 should trigger a run at the July high of 155.53, while a break of 143.50 should trigger downside acceleration towards a retest of the August low at 137.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Do Stock Market Investors Really Want The Fed to Lower US Interest Rates? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Hans_Wagner
Investors trying to beat the market are closely following the trends in interest rates, especially the Federal Funds Rates. With many of the market traders and talking heads calling for a cut in the Fed Funds rate, do investors follow their advice or make their own assessment. Let's look at what the theory says about the link of interest rates and the market. Next we will look at the impact of inflation will have on rates and finally a chart that compares Fed Funds rates, the 3 month Treasury Rate and the S&P 500. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Pullback in Nasdaq Should Hold / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The all-day sell-off continues right into the final hour of trading. The Q's (Nasdaq: QQQQ) are nearing important near-term support between 48.80 and 48.50, where I expect the pullback to hold and reverse (not necessarily this afternoon). If such a scenario does unfold in the upcoming hours, an upside reversal off of 48.80/50 should trigger a new upleg that propels the Q's above 50.00 towards a retest of the July high at 50.46. Conversely, a violation of 48.50 will set up an important test of the Aug-Sept. trendline, which cuts across the price axis at 48.10 today.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 02, 2007
Stock Market Update: Ghost of Crashes Past / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
This week brought back memories of when I would post at different boards on the web where no one wanted anything to do with a bullish chart that ultimately, if they'd listened, would have saved them tens of thousands of dollars. It was the October 2005 low, everyone in the world of Elliott wave was predicting a crash, and I just had to leave that suffocating, doom and gloom atmosphere. Because of that, TTC was formed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 01, 2007
The Wilshire 5000 Stock Market Index Revisited / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
Perceptions from May of 2007:
Four months ago, we presented Bullish: Like There's No Tomorrow , which presented a bullish view and critical-mass-breakout buying opportunity for long term-investors interested in capturing further upside potential in the Wilshire 5000 index.
We don't get fooled again:
Those adhering to the general protocols outlined in that piece are flat - as they now hold this index sternly to task - awaiting a long-side re-entry signal upon a close back above the 14991.68 level.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Upmove in the Nasdaq Not for Long / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Although the Q's (Nasdaq: QQQQ) have the right structure and look of an incomplete upleg off of yesterday's low at 46.71, my overall work argues that in the vicinity of 47.70 up to 48.10 this rally will fail and the Q's will reverse into a decline that will retest 46.71, and perhaps press into the 46 area. In other words, I am viewing this upmove as an intervening rally between two declines of a correction.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Stock Market Indexes Confirm a Bullish Cycle Turn / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Jim_Curry
From recent information to our investment advisory clients, the S&P 500 index has recently confirmed a 45-day (10-week) and 120-day (20-26 week) cycle bottom in place. The index did so by closing above VTL resistance (chart 1), which goes over top of a shorter-term cyclical component, the nominal 20-day cycle. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 25, 2007
Stock Market Update: And the Beat Goes On… / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
Discipline and patience is what you need to trade a market like we saw this past week, if you trade it at all – the discipline to focus on what the market's saying is important, and the patience to let the trade set up. The past few updates have emphasized staying flat in a choppy, sloppy, trendless market, if no other reason than to wait for a clear trade. I made that point in a chart on Friday, just as we were getting ready to buy one of the only real moves of the week.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Further Stock Market Weakness Expected - Leading Market Indicators: Part 1 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Donald_W_Dony
This report is the first of a two-part series reviewing several key leading indicators on the equity markets. With recent volatility due to the subprime mortgage exposure and drops of 10% or more to major indexes, the timing and direction of the markets is vital now for many investors.
The Dow Jones Utilities Average has a 40 year history of leading the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Utilities as a sector, are the most sensitive to interest rate movements and are normally the first group of stocks to reverse their trend ahead of the DJIA.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Stock Market Technical Analysis : Trimming the Hedgies / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
With so many bombs hitting the tape, and with massive short-covering rallies apparently never far behind, it was suggested last week that less experienced traders stay flat, or at least stay flat more often, as the market structure becomes more and more distorted by outside forces. Still, there were some fantastic setups this week we were able to take advantage of, and from here it looks like there's at least one more big move yet in store.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Stock Market Technical Analysis Report 18th August 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The Federal Reserve Bank cut its discount rate 0.5% to 5.75% on Friday.
What is going on?
Technical analysis is the study of trading patterns as technicians we look for repeating patterns.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
S&P 500 Index Developing a Topping Pattern Over the Coming Months / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: David_Petch
G'day all. Well, the S&P bottomed around the 1440 level and is set to continue putting in a topping pattern over the next 2-3 months. The analysis today should illustrate the outcome that is somewhat different than the bulls and the bears, Chimeric market behaviour if you will.
The hedge funds (rampant speculation) and financial/mortgage related stocks (from the housing bubble in the US ) are going to cause a significant loss of money that really did not exist. Many hedge funds had pooled capital that resulted in losses 10-15 fold above the entry point. Those with invested capital have nothing, making the losses real. Most hedge funds are locking out clients from being able to liquidate the funds in fear it would cause a financial cascade to the downside. Attempts such as this is like trying to stop flooding by sticking fingers in a dike…… a person only has so many fingers.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 13, 2007
Wealthbuilder Monthly Stock Market Portfolio Investment Note - August / Portfolio / US Stock Markets
By: Christopher_Quigley
Overview
The bull market in the Dow is being tested. The technical breakdown currently is action was forewarned by the cluster of Hindenburg Omens which were noted in the market throughout July.
Friday, August 10, 2007
MPTrader - Small Cap Stocks Recovering / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Purely from a technical perspective, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (AMEX: IWM) currently is in the midst of a recovery rally effort in the aftermath of the downleg from 85.74 to 73.95 (14%). The initial upmove of the recovery started at Monday's low of 76.43, and hit its initial high yesterday at 85.74.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 09, 2007
MPTrader - Near-Term Work Remains Positive on Nasdaq (Q's) As Long as 48 Holds / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The Q's (Nasdaq: QQQQ) rocketed nearly $0.90 (1.9%) off of this morning's pre-open low at 48.08, but stalled and reversed right just below a key near-term resistance plateau between 49 and 49.15, which if (when) hurdled should trigger a powerful upside acceleration off of the development of a 3-week base-like pattern in the aftermath of the Jul-Aug decline.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 06, 2007
MPTrader - Dow Jones Relative Strength Versus Russell 2000 Nearing Short-Term Top / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
I have been long the Dow Diamonds (AMEX: DIA) vs. short the Russell 2000 Small Caps (AMEX: IWM) in our ETF Trading Diary model portfolio since last September, when the base pattern started to mature. Looking at the weekly relative strength chart of the two indices, the powerful two-year base pattern in the DIA/IWM spread has accelerated from its breakou level of 1.6400 to a high today of 1.7775 (so far), which is nearing my secondary target price of 1.8200.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 05, 2007
Stock Market Update: So Much for a Vacation! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
Well, Dom's going for a second take at his first vacation since starting TTC, so this is Joe filling in again. Dom's attempt at getting some time off ended when he returned early to prepare members and guide them through what turned out to be an important and profitable week. While he should have been on the beach, one of hardest working man in the business was instead at his desk pounding the table and getting members to buy the bottoms and sell the tops… again and again.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 02, 2007
This is a Liquidity Driven Stock Market ... / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Things have changed since Bernanke took office and M3 was discontinued. This put blinders on what the Fed was doing relative to Liquidity Injections.
Our Long Term Liquidity measurement is the closest we can get to seeing what Liquidity levels are and when they shift.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
MPTrader -QID (UltraShort Q's) Not Finished on the Upside / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The ProShares UltraShort QQQQ (AMEX: QID) has climbed 16% off of its 7/19 low, but does not look complete on the upside (yet). All roads appear to point to 77.80-78.20 prior to the conclusion of the current upleg. At this juncture, only a decline that violates today's low at 45.60 will begin to compromise the projected target zone.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
Wrestling with the Stock Market Bears / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: Is a major bear market creeping up on us? Well, if you were listening to the talking heads on CNBC last week, it sure seemed like it. Sentiment got bearish in a hurry, and good stocks were trampled down with the bad.
Then the bounce on Monday was followed by a red-ink reversal yesterday. The quandary that investors face now is whether this market is:
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Dow Jones Industrials Skating on Thin Ice / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Gary_Dorsch
Perhaps the most important market in the world today is the vast network of foreign currencies, where total trading volume, including derivatives and futures, average around $2.9 trillion a day. This is ten times the size of the combined daily turnover on all the world's equity markets. And as world's economies have become increasingly integrated, so have the foreign exchange and global capital markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
MPTrader - S&P UltraShort ETF on the Rise / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Judging from the fact that the UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares ETF (AMEX: SDS) declined right to 54.01 from Friday's high at 56.87, held, and then turned up for a rally to the 55.70/75 area as we speak, suggests strongly that the "bullish scenario" (for the SDS, bearish for the major equity market ETFs) is unfolding.
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Monday, July 30, 2007
Light At the End of the Tunnel, Not New Jersey / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Boris_Chikvashvili
Dear Readers, In April We projected the Markets Energy To take it into Late July Early August fall. Article name "August Again? See the future".
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Monday, July 30, 2007
Mitigating Collateral Damage / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
After numerous months of shaking and rattling, financial markets have finally begun to roll - - over, that is - and notably to the downside of late.
Financial engineers the world over, are likely scrambling alongside the brotherhood of institutions, deliberating plausible methods by which to orchestrate transfer of unintended, and immeasurable risks across the global financial sphere.
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Sunday, July 29, 2007
Navigating Near-term Stock Market Volatility / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
Nothing can be more exhilarating or rewarding than trading profitably amid fast-moving markets with expanding daily ranges.
Conversely, there can be nothing much worse than having to take personal responsibility for having your speculative trading account destroyed in a matter of months, weeks, days, or hours.
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Sunday, July 29, 2007
Stock Market Update: Along for the Ride / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joe_Nicholson
Last weeks Market update said:
It's no secret that I've been getting closer and closer to calling a major top while maintaining the unbiased flexibility to trade both sides of the market as we approach our final destination. We've been perfectly cautious of overextended rallies, while also avoiding panic on the dips and buying bottoms. IF I could have my way from here, I would want to see this market attempt one more screaming rally to just above its recent highs and, at that point, if all things remained the same, I'd be willing to call for a substantial turn, not only in the stock indices, but in several other major markets.
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Saturday, July 28, 2007
Index Traders Edge - Highlighting the NASDAQ 100 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
Holding the Line
Interestingly, the NDX is one of the few broad-based equity indices to maintain its standing uptrend from the March lows.
Despite closing near its low for the week - with losses approaching 4%, the NDX survived the onset of this particular storm with little if any near-term technical damage. Much rides on the week ahead however.
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Saturday, July 28, 2007
Looking Back to The Stock Market Crash of 1987 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Peter_Degraaf
“History does not always repeat, but sometimes it rhymes.” Mark Twain.
A lot of traders and investors are asking the question: “Is it too early to buy, or should I expect more volatility like we saw during the past few days?”
Sometimes, by looking at the past, we can find some clues as to what might happen during similar situations in the present.
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Saturday, July 28, 2007
The Past Year's Stock Market Rally Has Not Been Economically Driven / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
What accounts for the 18.4% increase in the S&P 500 stock price index in the 12 months ended June 2007? Was it profit growth? Hardly. The Commerce Department's National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) measure of corporate profits adjusted for prices (the GDP chain price index) shows the year-over-year change at minus 0.8% as of Q1:2007, the latest data available (see Chart 1). In nominal terms, year-over-year NIPA profit growth was only 2.1% in Q1:2007 vs. 10.1% in Q1:2006 (see Chart 2).Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 27, 2007
Delusions of a Goldilocks Economy Shattered - What a difference a Week Makes! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Peter_Schiff
Last week, as the Dow breached the 14,000 mark for the first time, bullish swagger on Wall Street went into overdrive. Some of the bulls that I'm often pitted against on television used the occasion to specifically heap scorn on my assessment of the U.S. economy and my investment advice. Although the attacks on my economic views were inaccurate on many levels, perhaps their largest oversight was that the Dow was propelled to its milestone largely as a result of multinationals that had seen their foreign earnings increase with the weak dollar. While many of these stocks set new 52 week highs, stocks primarily dependant upon the U.S. economy and American consumers were setting fresh 52 week lows. This divergence of performance provides strong evidence that the U.S. economy remains on track for a severe disruption.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
MPTrader - Stock Market Bulls Not Dead.... Yet / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Inability of the Q's (Nasdaq: QQQQ) to follow-through to the downside after breaking beneath two prior pullback lows at 49.74 and 49.64 was my first indication that the correction off of last Friday's high might be complete. Secondly, the ease with which the Q's recovered half of today's early loss was another clue that the bulls are not dead…yet, and that a new upleg likely is underway that should propel prices to new highs.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 23, 2007
MPTrader - Stock Market Recovery Ended in the S&P Index? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Based on the intraday pattern, the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) looks like it ended the recovery rally off of Friday's low (152.84) at this afternoon's high of 154.72 and has turned down. The extent and form of this pullback should reveal to us if the SPY started a new upleg at Friday's low or merely ended the first part of a larger corrective process.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 20, 2007
The S&P Stock Market Index Vibrating At Critical Mass / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
Nearly a year ago, back in September of 2006, we shared a keen and timely awareness as The Dow Approached Critical Mass . Save for the miserable comparative retracement performance from the tech-sector off the 2002 lows, numerous equity indices have since broken decisively to the upside above their previous historic highs. The S&P is one of the last to arrive.
The mother of all benchmarks is on the hot-seat
As we pen this market update, the S&P has yet to close above 1553.11. Perhaps it will do so by today – perhaps not.
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Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Why is the US Government Trying to Sell US Sub-prime Mortgages to China? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
A few months ago, the sub-prime problem seemed to be a mammoth problem to many investors.
But ... nothing bad happened, so investors thought that this was another over-hyped problem that really amounted to nothing. Besides, the Fed was being proactive as our big market-protectors, so there was nothing to worry about ... Mighty Mouse was here to save the day.
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Saturday, July 14, 2007
US Housing Market and the Stock Market / Housing-Market / US Stock Markets
By: Tim_Wood
I first reported publicly on October 28, 2005 that the housing market was at risk of having completed a long-term cyclical top. At that time I posted a couple of housing indexes, gave the key levels to watch and said that any such break would be a major indication that the housing market had indeed topped. This break did in fact occur with the decline into the following intermediate-term cycle low and I know that along the Gulf Coast, housing has been dead ever since.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 13, 2007
MPTrader Mid-Day Minute - S&P Holds Firm Despite Surging Crude Oil Prices / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Another $1 surge in oil prices thus far today, yet the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) continue to hold up remarkably well -- considering also that they have climbed 3% in less than 48 hours.
Furthermore, let's notice that while the momentum oscillators are relatively overbought on an hourly basis, they nonetheless confirm the two session advance, which usually means that more upside is likely prior to the creation of divergences that point to the approach of a meaningful correction.
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Thursday, July 12, 2007
MPTrader Mid-Day Minute - Big Cap Stocks Outperforming Small Caps / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
One very interesting aspect of today's action is the outperformance of the BIG CAPS versus the small caps, which has widened my ratio spread long Dow Diamonds (AMEX: DIA)/short iShares Russell 2000 Index (AMEX: IWM) in a lopsided, powerful upday.... a signal perhaps that the leadership in this new upleg is being narrowed to the highly capitalized, substantial companies. It is with that in mind, that we take a look at the DJIA pattern.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
MPTrader Mid-Day Minute - Nasdaq Looking Set to Start a New Upleg / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
So far this morning's low at 48.29 in the Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) is looking very much like the conclusion of the pullback off of Monday's 48.99 high as well as the start of a new upleg. If all of the above proves accurate, then the current "up bar" on the 4-hour chart represents the initiation of a new advance that should hurdle 48.99 on the way to at least 49.50/60 and, more than likely, on the way to 50.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Today's Stock Market headline: Testing, Testing, Testing ... 3 Indexes at a stress level? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
There are 3 important testing levels, all occurring today, in the market on the S&P 500, the DOW, and our Institutional Index. Each chart is below showing their respective resistance levels being tested.
Chart 1: The S&P 500
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Tuesday, July 10, 2007
MPTrader Mid-Day Minute - Early Session Lows for S&P / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Today's swoon to a low so far at 151.81 has pressed the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) nearly to test the June-July support line at 151.70. The early-session weakness hit a low above the trendline, and has since reversed sharply in what is starting to look like the completion of the correction off of the 153.30 high from yesterday.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 09, 2007
MPTrader Mid-Day Minute - Circling SPY Uptrend / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The fact that the SPDRs (AMEX: SPY) have been circling unchanged for the entire session is fairly remarkable when we consider that it has climbed 3.3% in the last 7 sessions. In fact, let's also notice that every pullback within the upmove has established a higher low – this morning's swoon to 152.62 included, which preserves the integrity of the immediate- and near-term uptrends.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 08, 2007
Stock Market Update: Shortened Week Still Long on Profits / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
For quite awhile now, I've hinted and even explicitly stated there would come a time I would don the proverbial bear suit and switch to fading rallies. But, because part of my unbiased trading style is the discipline to wait for confirmation, TTC members have had to forego really juicy doom and gloom forecasts and settle for trading both sides of the tape… and making money! As I've also said several times, successful trading has a huge psychological component, and keeping our heads in the game, in addition to hours of hard work, is a key factor of our ongoing wins.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 05, 2007
Stock Market Investments - Take Profits Now! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: I hope you had a nice holiday yesterday. I'm making a semi-long weekend out of this year's Fourth of July, by working half-days today and tomorrow. That will allow me to catch up on some much needed R&R.
But don't think for a minute that my market antennae are down. Quite to the contrary, when I "take a break," it means watching the markets six hours a day instead of the usual 18!
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Tuesday, July 03, 2007
Markets Continue to Rise into 2007. Growth is More Important Than Safety / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Donald_W_Dony
The long-term relative strength analysis between the S&P 600 Small Cap Index and the Consumer Staples Sector ETF is a very valuable indicator that investors should monitor closely. This is because it provides an important timing tool for determining the top of the four year cycle and the stock market.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 25, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Merv_Burak
The good news is: The market is approaching an oversold level near its recent extremes.
Short Term
For the past few weeks the market has been bouncing from one extreme to another. It has gone from an oversold low early this month to an overbought high the end of last week and, if the current trend continues, will be at another oversold low in a few days.
Monday, June 25, 2007
Stock Market Forming Topping Pattern / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: David_Petch
I am glad I waited for one more day to examine the S&P, because the volatility confirms that a topping formation is underway and likely will last into September/October (most likely October). The US Dollar declined sharply today and a falling US stock market makes the decline a double whammy.
The upper 55 MA Bollinger band curling down did confirm a top, with the depth of the lower 55 MA Bollinger band suggestive a decline to 1440 is probable but not for 2-4 weeks. Short-term stochastics have the %K beneath the %D within the confines of an expanding stochastic wedge. Given the volatility witnessed during the past two weeks, I do not want to even try and catch every zig and zag. Rather I want to focus on the markets having a chronological decline type of topping process over the course of the next 3-4 months before declining.
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Saturday, June 23, 2007
The Dow Industrials Drop 185 Points Friday, the day after we got a Confirmed Hindenburg Omen / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
The Dow Industrials fell sharply again, down 185.58 points to close at 13,360.26 Friday. Volume was huge on the decline in all major averages, which is not good. NYSE volume was 134 percent of its 10 day average, with downside volume leading at 78 percent, with declining issues at 74 percent, with S&P 500 downside points leading at a near panic 89 percent. NYSE New 52 week Highs came in at 88, with New Lows at 73, and for all intents and purposes, we got a third Hindenburg Omen Friday .Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The NASDAQ composite (OTC) closed at a multi year high on Friday.
Short Term
For the past few weeks the market has been going from one extreme to another. After experiencing the most oversold condition since early March as measured by upside / downside volume ratios we are now looking at the most overbought condition by that same measure since March.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Pay attention to the Ratio of Leader Stocks to Broad Market Stocks ... / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Every night, we measure the percentage "change of direction" of Leader Stocks and the stocks in the Broad Market. We then divide the two to get a Ratio of Leaders to Broad market stocks.
Leader stocks are named that for a very good reason ... they set the pace and direction of the market. When the Leadership Ratio is high, they "pull up the Broad market stocks".
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Sunday, June 17, 2007
Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis 17th June 2007 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market.
SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-year cycle is still in its up-phase but, as we approach its mid-point some of its dominant components are topping and could lead to a severe correction over the next few months.
SPX: Intermediate Trend - With the price reaching the preferred target area in an appropriate time frame, the rally from 3/14 should be coming to an end very soon.
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Friday, June 15, 2007
Money and Credit Growth and Stock Market Trends with Ed 'N' Earl / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Doug_Wakefield
“It took five years for Yevgenia to graduate from the ‘egomaniac without anything to justify it, stubborn and difficult to deal with' category to ‘persevering, resolute, painstaking and fiercely independent.'”– Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
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Monday, June 11, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 11th June 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: All of the major indices hit multi year or all time highs Monday.
Short Term
All of the major indices completed a run of 6 consecutive up days on Monday leaving the market very overbought. The three consecutive down days that followed culminated in a washout on Thursday that is likely to have relieved selling pressure for the next several weeks.
Saturday, June 09, 2007
A little Stock and Gold Market Dip Do ya, Plus a Look at the Week Ahead / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
A week ago, we alerted readers of an imminent June Swoon . We opened last week's commentary by stating: “After 11-weeks of nothing but blue-sky, we suspect this bull may be growing bored of the dominance it imposes upon bears at will. Perhaps a couple of weeks respite in June ought to be a minimum at which this easily antagonized bull may once again become angered, electing to resume its deceptive charge with renewed fury.”Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Housing Remains Bernanke's and Stock Markets Unknown / Economics / US Stock Markets
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Tuesday's stock market declines in the US were attributed to a prolonged rally in bond yields resulting from stronger than expected services ISM survey and remarks from Fed Chairman Bernanke reiterating that core inflation "remains somewhat elevated" . The services ISM hit a 13-month high of 59.7, accompanied by broad improvements in the employment, new orders and prices components, bond yields surged to 4.99%, their highest since mid August.
The services ISM combined with Mr. Bernanke's remarks and last week's strong manufacturing ISM are reducing the prospects for a 2007 Fed cut on the basis of stabilizing growth and prolonged inflationary risks. This is beginning to upset US equities, rendering the June outlook to be bearish from purely technical terms (see S&P 500 chart below).
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Wednesday, June 06, 2007
How High Can the Stock Markets Go? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_Petillo
Not so long ago a triple point gain, like the one that occurred last Wednesday or a similarly sized loss, a healthy correction that hasn't happened in far too long was serious news indeed. The math suggests why. A 100 gain/loss when the Dow was at 8000 represented a 1.25% move whereas a similar gain in the 13,000 point range coughs up half as much of a move but twice the chatter.
With the Dow setting new daily records and the S&P 500 now in the same territory, one wonders what kind of news will move traders do change course. What economic tidbit will convince them to pile in with ever greater abandon or take their money and head for the exits?
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Monday, June 04, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 4th June 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: All of the major indices closed at multi year or all time highs Friday.
Short Term
All of the major indices were up every day last week leaving the market overbought.
Intermediate term
Expanding new highs in a rising market indicate broadening participation.
Monday, June 04, 2007
Nolte Notes - The Bull Market Continues! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
It was Christmas in June for the financial markets, as they got everything they wanted from the economic reports last week. The consensus view after the reports was that the economic slowdown of the first quarter was merely a blip in the overall scheme, and the economic engine has once again sputtered to life and is running well. Judging by the income and spending report, it is very clear that the consumer is not yet done making purchases – however it is unclear how much of the spending is going toward the high and rising energy products. The employment report was a bit better than expected, however some are quibbling about the “birth/death” rates that are a part of the calculation. Without getting too technical, it doesn't refer to employees being born or dying, rather businesses going out or coming into existence.
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Sunday, June 03, 2007
Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis 3rd June 2007 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market.
SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-year cycle is still in its up-phase but, as we approach its mid-point some of its dominant components are topping and could lead to a severe correction over the next few months.
SPX: Intermediate Trend - With the price reaching the preferred target area in an appropriate time frame, the rally from 3/14 should be coming to an end.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 02, 2007
Trading the Short-term Stock Market Trend Within the Long Term Trend / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
We track both the primary (long-term) trend, and the short-term trend. Knowing both is key to making money trading or investing in the stock market . Simply, increase exposure when playing a short-term trend that is in the same direction as the primary trend.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 02, 2007
Stock Market Perma Bears - Send In The Clowns By All Means! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clif_Droke
The bull market in stocks continues, but to hear various exponents of the bearish persuasion talk, you'd think the party was ending right now. At least that's the impression I get reading some of their weekly rants on various Internet sites.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Stock Market Developing Topping Pattern Over the Summer / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: David_Petch
The decline in the S&P 500 and other broad market indices likely was a shot across the bow for what lies ahead later in the year. Technically the S&P could have completed the move up, but technical evidence suggests that a topping formation will develop over the course of the summer before a sharp decline in September/October.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 27, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 27th May 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Many of the major indices hit multi year or all time highs last week.
Short Term
The small caps lead both up and down and for the past month that leadership has left something to be desired.
The chart below covers the past year showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in green and the Russell 2000 (R2K) in red. At the bottom of the chart is a FastTrack (http://fasttrack.net) relative strength indicator called Accutrack (AT). When AT is above the neutral line and/or rising the R2K is outperforming the SPX. For the past month until about a week ago AT has been below the neutral line and falling to its lowest level since this up leg began last summer. Last week AT turned up and, although it is still below the neutral level, the direction is what we like to see.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 26, 2007
Can A Major Stock Market Top Occur Here? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
While the following charts are meaningless for predictive purposes, what they do tell us is we currently have a price pattern set-up eerily similar to the price pattern leading up to the January 2000 major top in the Dow Industrials .Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Nolte Notes - Market Equilibrium / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Ladies and gentlemen: we have reached cruising speed, the turbulence of a few months ago is merely a memory and with the added boosts from mergers and acquisitions, we should be flying by the moon in just a couple of weeks. While just a bit fanciful, the markets are not interested in stopping or even slowing down for economic reports that conflict with the view that all is well in the world of investing. While the current euphoria over stock investing will likely last for a while longer, we are surprised at the few actual declines in the markets over the past two months. Housing, the kill-joy of the economy (along with the recent poor reports on retail sales) still shows little in the way of good news, as starts looked ok, but permits (the future construction) declined again – as did the index of sentiment of home builders n general.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 20, 2007
Stocks & Commodity Markets Analysis - Houston , We Have LIFT OFF! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
Can you believe we're just a day's rally away from the 2000 high? I'm sure plenty of investors out there would rather forget about that time, as they were probably buying only to sell out during the severe decline going into the 2002 lows. Now they're wondering if they should be back in. Well, there's thirty-plus points to go and lots of mistakes can be buried in Elliott land as if they never existed.
Some say that controlling emotions is an important part of trading. I say it could be the most important part. The two most destructive emotions for trading are Fear and Greed. I'm sure both have been wreaking havoc lately and are about to kick in on an even more massive scale.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 20, 2007
The Sock Market Raging Bulls / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
Two weeks ago, we shared with readers a perception that equity markets were bullish like no tomorrow . That general assessment has held course thus far. However, intermediate level timing models are suggesting that equity markets may be fast approaching a juncture of pivotal import. If so, many broad market indices will soon elect one of three critical paths in the days and weeks ahead. Our continued diligence monitoring minor degree trends, together with intra-day price structures; enables us to anticipate which of these critical paths each market is in the process of adopting.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 19th May 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The blue chip indices hit multi year or all time highs last week.
Short Term
Some of the small cap short term indicators appeared to have bottomed and turned upward last week. Seasonally the last week and a half in May have been strong, so it appears likely the recent weakness in the small caps is ending.
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Will The Stock Market Ever Stop Going Up? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Hans_Wagner
Investors who want to beat the market are wondering if the recent rise will ever stop going up. The stock market is experiencing unheard of price appreciation that is breaking all times highs for the DJIA, the Transports and the Utilities. The DJIA is up 23 of the last 26 days, a move that has never occurred before. The DJIA did move up 22 of 25 days in 1955.
Also, the S&P 500 is close to the all time high and the NASDAQ is reaching highs not seen for several years. Is this a short term situation or will the markets continue to surprise to the upside for some time to come? According to Mark Hulbert of the Hulbert Financial Digest , this event is not a sign of anything in particular. It is just noise in the random walk down Wall Street. Let's look at some other factors that might shed more light on the markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 14, 2007
A Tale of Two Cities : Strong Stock Market and Weak Economy / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Captain_Hook
Below is an excerpt from a commentary that originally appeared at Treasure Chests for the benefit of subscribers on Thursday, April 24 th , 2007.
All three, the Dow, Transports, and Utilities all closed at record highs on Friday. This is all very good from a Dow Theory perspective, providing confirmation the stock market is in a strong up trend. But how can this be with the economy in the States on the fritz? How can this be with real estate in the dumper and the threat of a credit crunch (a steepening yield curve ) at the same time? Answer: It's a tale of two cities, that of Beijing with the Summer Olympics to prepare for next year; and New York, the center of Western influence, where bankers conspire to inflate the US housing slump away. Combined, these two forces, forces that both demand rapid money supply expansion, are culminating to create the biggest asset and debt bubbles in history, bubbles that when they pop, there will be no coming back for a very long time.
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Saturday, May 12, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 12th May 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Most of the major indices hit multi year or all time highs last week.
Short Term
Most of the market run up since last summer has been marked by a lack of sellers not exuberant buyers. It looks like the sellers are returning.
The chart below covers the past year showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in orange and a 5% trend (39 day EMA) of NASDAQ downside volume (OTC DV) in brown. OTC DV has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing downside volume moves the indicator upward (up is good).
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Media thrives on Stock Market Crash Fears - Oh, the Fear of It All! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clif_Droke
"Is the stock market headed for a catastrophic crash? Will ‘Black Monday' be re-lived in painful detail for millions of investors just like you?"
To discover the answer to these questions the reader is asked to send $149 for a year's subscription and a handful of "free reports" on how he can avoid being trapped by the granddaddy of all stock market crashes -- coming soon to a stock exchange near you!
Unfortunately, the above copy material for a financial newsletter promotional that I received (as quoted above) was the same exact promo that I'd received in the mail every year since the last bear market bottomed in late 2002. More than four years and many mass mailings later, this particular publisher is still waiting for his Mother-of-All-Depression scenario to materialize. Meanwhile, the benchmark S&P 500 index has risen from a bear market low of about 800 to its most recent high of 1510 in the last four years.
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Monday, May 07, 2007
Nolte Notes - Developing Street Sense / InvestorEducation / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Street Sense, what everyone aspires to, even after many years of paid education – an understanding of the way the world works, not the way it does inside of a textbook. Street Sense also was the first Breeders Cup juvenile to win the Kentucky Derby. Street sense is also what many investors believe they have when it comes to Wall Street, however bull markets tend to make everyone look smart.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 07, 2007
Sorry To Blow Your Bubble, Ringing The Stock Market Bell / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Boris_Chikvashvili
The Pictures below display the fractal equivalence between SPX 2000 - NIKKEY 1990 Needless to say, it depicts uneasy picture for anybody who really cares for USA and it's citizens and their future. Count this citizen among them. That is the reason I write and write free, to help you understand where we are in these convoluted times, where everything has been redefined/mutilated to hide the true nature of the era.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 07, 2007
Stock Markets Bullish Like There's No Tomorrow / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
THE FINANCIAL SPHERE FLOORS ITAll that remains to seal absolute victory is to re-mastermind the majestic performance put on by the Clinton/Rubin administration in masterfully engineering a strong dollar policy concurrent with rising equity values, while commodities, gold, and interest rates plunged into the abyss.
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Saturday, May 05, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 5th May 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Most of the major indices closed at multi year or all time highs on Friday.
Short Term
The market is and has been overbought for a month or more and it keeps going up.
The blue chips have been outperforming the secondaries which is usually a negative. May, after the first few days, has historically been good for the secondaries, but not the blue chips. The market has been doing a good job of following the typical seasonal pattern recently and, if that continues, there will be a shift to strength to the secondaries in the next few weeks.
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Thursday, May 03, 2007
Real Estate Crash a Post Mortem for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Whitney
The real estate market is crashing faster than anyone had anticipated. Housing prices have fallen in 17 of 20 of the nation's largest cities and the trend lines indicate that the worst is yet to come. March sales of new homes plummeted by a record 23.5% (year over year) removing all hope for a quick rebound. Problems in the subprime and Alt-A loans are mushrooming in previously “hot markets” resulting in an unprecedented number of foreclosures.
The defaults have slowed demand for new homes and increased the glut of houses already on the market. This is putting additional downward pressure on prices and profits. More and more builders are struggling just to keep their heads above water. This isn't your typical 1980s-type “correction”; it's a full-blown real estate cyclone smashing everything in its path.
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Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Investment Flash: Investment In Stocks is Pure Speculation / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_Lamont
Stocks are still following the elliptical curve upwards mentioned in our last Investment Analysis Report . In 20 of the last 23 days, the DJIA has closed higher (which has never occurred in the history of the DJIA).
According to Bob Prechter “the most similar string of days ended in July 1929.” In his April 2007 Elliot Wave Theorist, Prechter also discusses more recent history: “In 1999, the public was heavily invested in mutual funds, and mutual funds had 96% of their clients' money invested in stocks.” (Ed. Note: We all know what followed from 2000-2002.) He continues: “Today much of the public has switched to so called hedge funds (a misnomer).
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Tuesday, May 01, 2007
The Placebo Effect as the Dow Jones Passes 13,000 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_Petillo
Consider Dow 13,000. We have already surpassed that mark and probably will do so repeatedly in the next several weeks. To skeptics such as myself, there is an underlying fallacy in numbers such as this. When DJIA hits new high water marks, it allows investors to fall prey to the big number fallacy.
The big number fallacy goes something like this: All big numbers, and we can certainly qualify 13,000 as a big number in terms of stock market advances, are considered infinite. There is the possibility that given enough time the Dow could lumber on towards infinity. And the chartists among us will agree, based on the pace of recent years that it could happen in our lifetimes.
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Monday, April 30, 2007
Nolte Notes - If the US Economy is slowing why is the Stock Market Rising? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
The biggest question of the week is: if the economy is doing so poorly, why is the stock market cheering? Based upon the GDP report, economic growth in the US is a measly 1.3%, way below what even the most pessimistic economists believed. As with any bit of bad news, there is always a silver lining – and here the blame rests firmly upon the housing slump. Next week we get the “big” economic reports that tend to move markets: employment and purchasing managers reports (ISM data).
Either these reports will confirm the GDP report or they will point to a one-quarter wonder and investors will continue to cheer stocks higher. The current guess (as good as it gets in this business!) is that payrolls will grow by roughly 100,000 with a fairly wide range around that figure.
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Sunday, April 29, 2007
US Equities - Dead Market Walking / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Michael_J_Panzner
"Dead man walking" is the phrase shouted by guards when a condemned prisoner is taken down to Death Row. The words have also been used to describe individuals who face an unwelcome but unavoidable fate. In other words, although they might be employed or involved in a particular relationship right now, circumstances will soon change -- for the worse.
In many ways, this epithet describes today's U.S. equity market. That is despite the fact that the majority of investors seem to believe that the increasingly exuberant run-up we've seen since the fall of 2002 can only lead to one thing: more of the same.
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Saturday, April 28, 2007
Stock Market Demand Power and Supply Pressure Buy and Sell Entry and Exit Signals - Part 2 / InvestorEducation / US Stock Markets
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
Last week we presented charts and theory on how the Demand Power and Supply Pressure measurements for the S&P 500 generate highly correlative entry and exit signals for traders and market-timing investors who want to go long and short, catching the waves and realizing profits far greater than buy and hold strategies offer.
This weekend we present our proprietary Demand Power and Supply Pressure charts for the NASDAQ 100 , with equally spectacular results. Aside from the astonishing correlation, the most exciting aspect about this system is the guidance it provides on exiting an established position.
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Saturday, April 28, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 28th April 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: All of the major indices hit multi year or all time highs during the past week.
Short Term
The secondaries lead both up and down.
Saturday, April 28, 2007
The Last Bear Standing, Dow 36,000??? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: John_Mauldin
This week we look at the growing disconnect between the US economy and the stock markets. One is slowing and the other is exploding to the upside. One of my mentors once said that it is the duty of the markets to prove the most-possible people wrong.
So far, I am clearly in the wrong category. We will look at some explanations as to why, ponder if this can continue, and more. (I will conclude the letter I promised last week in next week's letter. There were still a few details I needed to get it ready.)
Friday, April 27, 2007
Dow Jones What Record High? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Peter_Schiff
As the Dow burst through the 13,000 milestone this week, few understood the hollowness of the achievement. Measured against the rising dollar-denominated prices of just about everything else on the planet, the Dow has actually lost value over the past seven years. Measured against the truest benchmark, the price of gold, the record high for the Dow was set back in January of 2000 when its price equaled approximately 43 ounces of gold. Today it is only worth about 19 ounces.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
The US Dollar Falls whilst Stock Markets Rise - A Major Market Disconnet / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes . Right now, there's a major disconnect in the markets — the U.S. dollar is going down while U.S. stocks are going up .
Look at my weekly chart of the dollar. If this were a stock, we'd be talking about a potential bankruptcy!
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Tuesday, April 24, 2007
S&P 500 Index Demand Power and Supply Pressure Buy and Sell Entry and Exit Signal / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
We've been measuring and reporting Demand Power and Supply Pressure for the Blue Chip indices each night for several years. This week we present them graphically, and show you how they offer highly correlative buy and sell signals. But even more exciting, for those of you who have been wanting some guidance on exit signals, these indicators also offer an option for exiting an established position.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Why Dow Jones 13,000 Is Insignificant / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes : The Wall Street crowd is treating the Dow's march to 13,000 like a New Year's Eve countdown. And I'm sure they'll break out lots of bubbly when it happens. But although 13,000 is a nice, round number, it's just 4.3% higher than where the Dow started 2007.
A 4.3% gain in the Dow is nothing to sneeze at. However, over the same timeframe, investors could have gotten double or triple that return from other markets around the globe.
In fact, I can think of three Asian exchange-traded funds that have already jumped by double-digits this year (through April 21) — the iShares Singapore (+10.4%), the iShares Malaysia (+19%), and the iShares Australia (+10.4%).
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Friday, April 20, 2007
A Bleak U.S. Stock Market Picture, Especially for Foreign Investors! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes Picture this: You're a U.K. fund manager sitting in an office tower in the "City," London's equivalent of Wall Street. It's 3:00 p.m. on Friday, another gloomy April afternoon that's not cold enough for snow and not warm enough to signal that summer's right around the corner.
You're sitting in your cube, staring at your portfolio of Dow stocks. You could really use a pint right about now. "Will the weekend ever get started?" you wonder aloud.
Sure, your U.S. stocks have been doing okay lately. But you bought them with British pounds, which keep rising in value relative to the buck. If you tried to cash out right now, your gains would be almost completely wiped out by the lousy exchange rate!
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Thursday, April 19, 2007
End of the Financial Markets Boom – Dow Jones Headed for 3000 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_Lamont
“In a bull market and particularly in booms the public at first makes money which it later loses simply by overstaying the bull market… The big money in booms is always made first by the public-on paper. And it remains on paper. ” – Edwin Lef èvre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator . 1923.
To the investment community the sell-off in February came as a complete surprise. Readers of our report understand what is happening. In our article on October 17 th of last year, titled Credit Extreme Emotion ;
“As a result, financial institutions will come under severe strains as the credit bubble bursts. The rise of mortgage defaults will signal the beginning of this deflationary spiral. Unfortunately, interest rate markets are setting up homeowners for this exact scenario. ”
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Saturday, April 14, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 14th April 2007 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is-
• The S&P mid cap index (MID) hit an all time high Friday.
• Next week is seasonally one of the strongest weeks of the year.
Short Term
Last Wednesday the MID ended its 2nd consecutive string of 8 consecutive up days for the year. You have to go back to April - June 2004 to find a similar performance. Following the late June 2004 string of 8 consecutive up days the index made an intermediate term high about a month later.
What has been defining this market is a lack of sellers.
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Monday, April 09, 2007
Nolte Notes - Wall Street Hops on Jobs Data and PMI / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Save for the still frigid upper tier of states, spring has sprung! (I'll save the frozen robin jokes) A bit of celebration was also in the economic numbers released on Friday, as the employment situation is looking much better – good for stocks, bad for bonds. While the guess may have been too low, the actual number added to payrolls was still not huge.
With all the monthly revisions, the average twelve-month gain has been falling for a year, after peaking at a rate well below those of the past 45 years. Many will argue that 125k in new jobs is the same as 250 is years past miss the point that the decline in jobs in 2002 was in line or larger than past job losses. Wage growth continues at roughly a 4% clip, a concern, but it merely matches prior peaks since the early 80's.
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Monday, April 09, 2007
Stock Market Severe Correction Commentary - Don't Listen to the Talking Heads / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clif_Droke
Watch the market!
I ran across an interesting article in the Financial Times on Wednesday. It caught my eye because of the headline: “Fund sells ahead of severe ‘correction'”. Here's what the article had to say:
“A leading UK fund manager has sold off around half the equities in the portfolios he oversees in anticipation of an imminent and severe market correction. Ken Murray, the founder and chief executive of Blue Planet Investment Management, has revealed he has offloaded equities and cut the gearing on the firm's portfolios to zero in the belief a U.S. economic recession is set to wipe more than 20 percent from the value of global stock markets.
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Saturday, April 07, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 7th April 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: After a little rest this week the market is likely to move up sharply.
Short Term
The S&P mid cap index (MID) has been the champ at putting together unbroken strings of consecutive up days.
The first chart shows the MID in magenta with an indicator showing the percentage of the previous 6 trading days that were up. The indicator touches the top of the chart when there have been 6 or more consecutive up days and it touches the bottom of the chart when there have been 6 or more consecutive down days. It is a little difficult to see, but, as of Thursday's close, the indicator is at the top of the chart.
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Saturday, March 31, 2007
Stock Market volitility for April but should end the year Strongly Higher / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Adam_Oliensis
Dear Speculators,
We've been studying the 4-year cycle in the stock market for quite some time here. And over the past couple of weeks we've been entertaining two different hypotheses. Our working assumption had been that the 4-yr cycle low came before it was scheduled to in '06, forming in July and launching the new '06 - '10 cycle with the July-February rally from the 1220s up to the 1460 area.
This first chart plots the market's percentage gain off the July low (black line) against the median 4-year cycle performance since 1962 (blue line) as well as against the average performance (red line). The grey lines measure 1 standard deviation from the median. And the horizontal axis measures the number of trading days from the launch of the new cycle; this particular chart plots only the first 2 years of the cycle.
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Saturday, March 31, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 31st March 2007 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Next week as well as the entire month of April have had a very positive seasonal bias.
Short Term : Last week new lows on the NASDAQ peaked at 56 on Thursday well below the 159 seen on March 5. The high for the NYSE was 32 on Wednesday also well below the 106 reported on March 5.
The chart below covers the past year showing the OTC in orange and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new lows (OTC NL) in black. OTC NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so increasing new lows move the indicator downward (up is good).
The upward movement of OTC NL was arrested on Thursday casting some suspicion on rally off the March lows.
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Thursday, March 29, 2007
Q4 Corporate Profits Sink - Thank Goodness For Wall St / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The important new information in the Commerce Department's third guess at last year's fourthquarter GDP was its first guess at the same quarter's corporate profits. Commerce guessed low. Before-tax profits adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption turned negative sequentially, submerging 0.30% (not annualized) in Q4:2006. In fact, after a Q1:2006 surge of 12.60%, corporate profit growth was downright anemic in the last three quarters of 2006, as was real GDP growth (see Chart 1 below).
With volume growth slowing and labor costs rising, it is no wonder that profits growth is now struggling. It is doubtful things will turn around soon unless Circuit City's plan to effectively cut the salaries of many of its employees becomes the norm.
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Saturday, March 24, 2007
Stock & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - 25th March 07 - Testing, 1, 2 . . . 3? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
What a week… again! Once more, the boat was extremely tilted to one side and it had to sink. But not the market, this time it was the bears that really took a soaking. Members of TTC and regular readers of this update, though, continued to bank plenty of profits.
Since the markets broke from the top a few weeks ago, I've insisted on two things. The first was that I wasn't going to label the big picture yet. Even though we were fortunate to be among the few, if not the only ones to navigate last year's rally all the way to the top, I didn't like that drop last month at all – at least not as the start of a bear market. It would have been easy to take a bow, and congratulate myself on a job well done, but I'm always looking for the next trade and I said the fast selloff from 1461 opened doors for alternatives that included new highs AND new lows.
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Saturday, March 24, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 24th Mar 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Last week new lows evaporated. On the NASDAQ new lows declined on both Thursday and Friday in spite of declines in the NASDAQ composite (OTC). The picture was similar on the NYSE with only 7 new lows recorded on Friday.
Short Term
Martin Zweig's up volume indicator got a lot of publicity in technical circles when it was triggered last week. The indicator was also triggered on March 6, but analysts' were probably too afraid to notice that time.
Friday, March 23, 2007
Stock Market Bounce due to Fed Liquidity / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
The Fed pumped in a ton of liquidity that is supporting the market's up movement. Sometime next week, the S&P 500 (and the other indexes) will meet resistance when they close their gaps as seen on the chart below.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 17, 2007
S&P Stock Market Analysis & Forecast : Knockdown, Drag Out / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
“I also think the boxing gloves might come off and we'll be in for a real street fight at the first gap off the lows.”
If you read last week's update, then you should've been expecting the total bull vs. bear streetfight that broke out like a gang riot at Wednesday's lows.
But did you have the guts to pull the trigger?
There were two things I mentioned last week that should have had readers buying Wednesday's lows with no sweat. The first was the quote above, and the second was this:
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Friday, March 16, 2007
Stock Market Relative Strength Analysis Suggest More Falls in Share Prices / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
We don't show this chart very often, but one on the things that our paid subscribers see every morning before the market opens is our Ratio of the % of Stocks with Upward Strength vs. the % with Downward Weakness.
Every night, we run a strength measuring analysis of all the stocks on all the indexes ... on over 8,000 stocks. This is a measurement of the broad market for every stock with a value over $2.00.
Why is this important?
Very simply ... a market that is rallying up has more stocks trending up than down, so its ratio is a positive number. The higher the ratio number is, the stronger the rally gets. The opposite is also true ... when the Ratio is negative, then there are more stocks in a down trend compared to those in an up trend, and therefore the market trends down.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Nolte Notes - Volume Signals Stock Market Correction to Resume / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
The growing and contracting economy seems to be growing again, after it was brink of collapse just last week. China and sub-prime lending were going to be the ruin of our economy; today they are contained and are an issue for merely a few. The employment report was better than expected (housing hasn't hurt job gains) and trade has improved some (although not with China ). Interest rates went from forecasting cuts fairly soon, to once again flattening out, and discussions about rate increases are back in vogue. Starting with employment – although the gains were better and revisions to historical data were higher, the fact is the average payroll gains this year is substantially behind the average gains of last year, so they are definitely slowing.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 10th Mar 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: New lows which hit 106 on the NYSE and 159 on the NASDAQ last Monday declined to 23 on the NYSE and 58 on the NASDAQ on Friday.
Short Term
New lows will reveal the short term condition of the market, but, for now, the picture is unclear.
Friday, March 09, 2007
Stock Market Analysis - A Major Crash...or a Major Bottom? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clif_Droke
On Tuesday, Feb. 27, the stock market experienced its biggest 1-day tumble since 2001. That it created quite an impression on the minds of millions of investors is undisputed. What is disputed, though, is whether this sharp decline represented a needed correction of an ongoing intermediate-term bull market...or perhaps the start of a major bear market?
The debate continues with everyone having a different take on the matter. But the market itself is giving clear and decisive readings as to which side of the argument is likely correct.
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Friday, February 02, 2007
Seven Reasons to Sell your Stock Market Portfolio / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_Lamont
We have pinpointed the seven reasons why investors should be currently selling their stock and mutual fund portfolio. As Marc Faber has been saying recently: "In a selling panic you should buy, but in the buying mania that we have now the wisest course of action is to liquidate." After discussing reasons to sell, we will recommend what steps you should take with your cash to protect value. But first, the 7 reasons:
1. Sentiment
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Friday, October 13, 2006
Dow Jones Makes a Fake New High Whilst most of its Component Stocks Don't ! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As the Dow Jones posts new record highs this month, there is something strange going on with the Dow components where most of them are NOT making new highs !!!
So how many Dow Components are making NEW ALL TIME highs this month ?
FIVE ! That's 5 out of 30 are making new all time highs - WHILST the Index makes NEW highs
How many trading more than 10% below their all time highs ?
TWENTY - Two thirds of the Dow Stocks are trading more than 10% Below their all time highs.
How many are trading more than 20% below their all time highs ?
EIGHTEEN - More than half the Dow 30 Stocks are trading 20% Below their all time highs.
And here's a real shocker ! How many stocks are trading more than 50% ! Below their all time highs !
FIVE DOW STOCKS are trading more than 50% below their all time highs - THATS the same number making new all time highs !
So where am I going with this analysis ? ...... In the run up to the US Election the Dow Jones is Making NEW All time highs, when most of its components are nowhere near making new highs, does this or does this not smell of market manipulation ?
The situation is even worse when you consider the stocks that have been REMOVED from the index ! I.e. Eastman Kodak off 75%, International Paper off 45%. Those that say the markets are not manipulated, then who do you explain these facts ?
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Monday, October 09, 2006
Dow Jones Hits New Highs in Lead up the Mid-term Elections / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow Jones has fulfilled the price pattern identified in the July Analysis , having strongly marched higher as buyers rely on the pattern of buying into the run up to the Election as a self fulfilling prophecy, despite the bad news around growth, inflation and interest rates.
The Dow is likely to continue to hold into the Elections and then correct. The degree of correction depends on how high the market goes between now and the elections, but regardless of the results a correction is expected, as both the Dow and other Stock Markets squeeze in the usual Seasonal bull run into December into October instead.
Friday, July 21, 2006
Dow Jones Forecast - Double Bottom ? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A month on from the FTSE double bottom, the same pattern can be observed forming on the Dow Jones 30 !
The correction during the summer was inline with the previous two corrections during the bull market in terms of price, though not time. But the key difference between this correction and the previous ones is that the Dow is now flirting with its all time high ! It failed to break on the first attempt and had a strong correction. The scene is set for another attempt on the high, with the second attempt more likely to succeed than the first attempt as the speculative forth has been unwound.
Friday, October 28, 2005
FTSE 100 Forecast - Get ready for the Seasonal Rally ! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As anticipated the FTSE has had its correction during October, bottoming out at 5130 and now rallying to 5236, with the last close at 5213. The question is, has the bottom been made or not ?.
Its a tough call, but we are now moving into a strong up seasonal period that should see the FTSE rally strongly into December 2006, and on that basis it is highly probable that the bottom has already been put in at 5130 !