Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Dow Jones What Record High?

Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets Apr 27, 2007 - 03:13 PM GMT

By: Peter_Schiff

Stock-Markets As the Dow burst through the 13,000 milestone this week, few understood the hollowness of the achievement. Measured against the rising dollar-denominated prices of just about everything else on the planet, the Dow has actually lost value over the past seven years. Measured against the truest benchmark, the price of gold, the record high for the Dow was set back in January of 2000 when its price equaled approximately 43 ounces of gold. Today it is only worth about 19 ounces.


To better appreciate just how much of stock gains can be attributed to inflation, consider that the record high for the Dow in 1929 of approximately 380 also equated to 19 ounces of gold. So despite all of the hoopla and a thirty-fold increase in stock prices, the Dow has actually gained no real value during the past eighty years. The entire rise from 360 to 13,000 has been an illusion made possible by the magic of inflation. So much for the concept of stocks being a “can't lose” long term investment -- unless you feel that eighty years is not quite a long enough time horizon!

Now that is not to imply that the Dow has not generated returns during those years: it has. However, those returns have been a function of dividends and not appreciation. But its not yields that Wall Street celebrates, its prices. By dazzling investors with higher prices, they distract their attention from the unpleasant reality that they are actually treading water. What difference does it make if you have more dollars if the dollars themselves have less purchasing power?

Despite its recent eclipse of 13,000 the Dow now buys 30% fewer euros than it did then back in 2000 when it was priced at approximately 11,500. It also buys 35% fewer gallons of milk, 40% fewer bushels of corn or wheat, 65% fewer ounces of silver, 70% fewer barrels of oil, 80% fewer pounds of copper, and 90% fewer pounds of uranium. Try figuring what the Dow will buy in terms of other necessities, such as housing, insurance, college tuition or hospitalization. Any way you measure it, the Dow is worth far less today then it was in January of 2000.

Back in 1980 one Zimbabwe dollar was worth more than one U.S. dollar. Therefore a billionaire in Zimbabwe was also a billionaire in America . Today, almost everyone in Zimbabwe is a billionaire yet few of them can afford a pack of chewing gum. Do you think that anyone invested in the Zimbabwean stock market these past 30 years cares how many record highs that market has made?

Many might feel that a comparison of the U.S. to Zimbabwe is ridiculous. However, fundamentally there is no real difference between a Zimbabwean dollar and an American dollar. They are both simply pieces of paper, the value of which depends on the resolve of politicians not to print too many of them. During the difficult economic times that lie ahead, the pressure on the Fed to run its printing presses full throttle will be immense.

Think back to the German experience with hyper-inflation during the Weimar Republic . At the time of its currency meltdown, Germany was a major economic power (even after the devastation of the First World War). Yet that status did not prevent its currency from becoming worthless. The impetus for Germany 's hyper-inflation was the fact that its industrial base had been badly damaged during the war, yet under the terms of Treaty of Versailles it was obligated to pay enormous reparations to the Allies. Lacking the ability to export enough goods to repay its debts, it resorted to a printing press instead. America is now in a similar predicament. Although our industry was not destroyed by bombs, it's gone just the same. While we might not be bound by a treaty to pay reparations, the trillions of dollars of American IOU's now owned by foreigners will be just as burdensome an obligation. It is hard to image we can “repay” these debts without civil unrest, massive inflation, or both.

The point to remember is that when it comes to records, it is real purchasing power, not nominal value, that counts. Measured by its purchasing power, the Dow has clearly lost value over the past seven years. Those who have remained invested in Dow stocks during that time period are clearly poorer as a result. Those who continue doing so will likely loss even more wealth in the years ahead, regardless of how many more nominal record highs the Dow sets.

For a more in depth analysis of inflation and how government statistics cover it up, read my new book “Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse.” Click here to order a copy today.

By Peter Schiff
Euro Pacific Capital
http://www.europac.net/

More importantly make sure to protect your wealth and preserve your purchasing power before it's too late. Discover the best way to buy gold at www.goldyoucanfold.com , download my free research report on the powerful case for investing in foreign equities available at www.researchreportone.com , and subscribe to my free, on-line investment newsletter at http://www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter.asp


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in