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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Politics

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Will Inflation “Save” Social Security? / Politics / Government Spending

By: MoneyMetals

Uncle Sam is going broke. That’s not exactly news – at least not to anyone who has been paying attention to the sorry state of federal finances.

Yet to most Americans, the ballooning national debt ($22.3 trillion and counting) isn’t a problem that impacts their daily lives. They won’t directly perceive the cost of another trillion dollars in borrowing in the government’s next fiscal year.

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Politics

Monday, June 17, 2019

Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? / Politics / UK Politics

By: Submissions

The battle is on for the next Conservation leader following the inevitable departure of Theresa May. This is certainly going to be a difficult job for whoever takes over the helm, in which there currently remains six looking for the role. The Roulettegeeks odds prediction has Boris Johnson as the short favourite and his price continues to shorten, in which he is now a best priced 1/6.

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Politics

Monday, June 17, 2019

Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting / Politics / UK Politics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The latest odds for who who is likely to be the next tory leader have continued to narrow in Boris Johnson's favour with the latest price of just 1.23 which is set against 1.84 a week ago, 2.98 a week before that, 4+ a month before and 5+ a few months ago. So the train for betting on Boris Johnson has left the station as the risk vs reward is just not there. I don't take bets where the return on a £100 risk is just £23, even if I am pretty sure the bet will come good because risk vs reward is one of the primary rules for successful trading as iterated in my January 2019 article on the real secrets for successful trading. The Real Secret for Successful Trading

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Politics

Sunday, June 16, 2019

US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Richard_Mills

When an emerging power attempts to supplant a hegemonic power in international politics, major conflict often ensues. This is the definition of “The Thucydides Trap” as explained in a recent op-ed piece in The Japan Times.

The Thucydides Trap (pronounced “thu”, like you have a heavy lisp + sid + idees) is a term invented by Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. Alison has been saying since 2015 that war between a rising power, China, and an established power, the United States, is inevitable, based on historical examples. The argument is fleshed out in his book, 'Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’sTrap?'

Allison’s Thucydides Trap has become a popular topic of conversation among the chattering classes in these troubling times in America, especially with a loose cannon like Trump as the tweeter-in-chief who has the keys to the nuclear button. As positions in the trade dispute get more entrenched, and issues like Huawei crop up, many are talking about a march to war with a new adversary: China.

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Politics

Friday, June 14, 2019

Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match - Video / Politics / UK Politics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The tory leadership contest is converging towards the ultimate grudge match of Boris Johnson who should have won the 2016 leadership campaign vs Michael Gove who should have backed Boris Johnson in 2016 but instead chose to stab him in the back by standing himself for leader just a few hours before Boris was set to announce his candidature for next tory leader.

We'll now 3 years on Boris has learned his lessons and thus had deployed a slick campaign to convince MP's and Tory party members to finally back him for their next leader and thus the next British Prime Minister as the results of MP's voting in the first round illustrates:

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Politics

Thursday, June 13, 2019

IRAN - The Next American War / Politics / US Military

By: Submissions

The hand on the trigger: How an American president wantonly prepares the next war

The great world powers slipped into World War I without really wanting it. But they had been arming themselves for years, so all that was needed was but a spark – such as the assassination of the Austrian heir to the throne – to detonate a powder keg filled to the rim.

A lot of explosives had accumulated

not only in the arsenals of the military, but in the hearts of the people. In the first moment of the declaration of war, many people throughout Europe were seen to be overwhelmed by enthusiasm. “… the war of 1914… was still serving a delusion, the dream of a better world, a world that would be just and peaceful… That was why the victims went to the slaughter drunk and rejoicing, crowned with flowers and wearing oak leaves on their helmets, while the streets echoed with cheering and blazed with light, as if it were a festival”(Stefan Zweig).

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Politics

Thursday, June 13, 2019

Tory Leadership Contest Betting Markets Forecast - Betfair / Politics / UK Politics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The worst Prime Minister in British History who has literally clung onto power by her finger tips for the past 6 months is set to resign as Tory party leader tomorrow, Friday 7th of June in the wake of the disaster that were the EU elections, which will mark the start for a 6 week long tory leadership contest with the objective of whittling down a wide field of 11 candidates to just 2 from whom the 100,000 or so tory party members will vote to choose to become the next Tory Leader and thus British Prime Minister set to take office late July as Britain counts down to the 31st October 2019 deadline. A deadline that most candidates have already declared they will seek to extend as a remainer parliament continues to do its utmost to subvert Brexit by taking a NO DEAL Brexit off the table and thus wasted the last 3 years instead of just declaring Independence as I concluded several years ago is what Britain should do to win the Brexit War.

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Politics

Monday, June 10, 2019

Betting on Next British Prime Minister Tory Leadership Betfair Markets Forecast / Politics / Gambling

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The worst Prime Minister in British History who has literally clung onto power by her finger tips for the past 6 months is set to resign as Tory party leader tomorrow, Friday 7th of June in the wake of the disaster that were the EU elections, which will mark the start for a 6 week long tory leadership contest with the objective of whittling down a wide field of 11 candidates to just 2 from whom the 100,000 or so tory party members will vote to choose to become the next Tory Leader and thus British Prime Minister set to take office late July as Britain counts down to the 31st October 2019 deadline. A deadline that most candidates have already declared they will seek to extend as a remainer parliament continues to do its utmost to subvert Brexit by taking a NO DEAL Brexit off the table and thus wasted the last 3 years instead of just declaring Independence as I concluded several years ago is what Britain should do to win the Brexit War.

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Politics

Thursday, June 06, 2019

Next British Prime Minister Tory Leadership Betting Markets / Politics / UK Politics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The worst Prime Minister in British History who has literally clung onto power by her finger tips for the past 6 months is set to resign as Tory party leader tomorrow, Friday 7th of June in the wake of the disaster that were the EU elections, which will mark the start for a 6 week long tory leadership contest with the objective of whittling down a wide field of 11 candidates to just 2 from whom the 100,000 or so tory party members will vote to choose to become the next Tory Leader and thus British Prime Minister set to take office late July as Britain counts down to the 31st October 2019 deadline. A deadline that most candidates have already declared they will seek to extend as a remainer parliament continues to do its utmost to subvert Brexit by taking a NO DEAL Brexit off the table and thus wasted the last 3 years instead of just declaring Independence as I concluded several years ago is what Britain should do to win the Brexit War.

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Politics

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Is Trump Reversing Course On Iran? / Politics / Iran

By: OilPrice_Com

The Trump administration is attempting to dial down the tension with Iran, lowering the risk of military conflict and pushing for diplomatic negotiations.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the U.S. was ready to negotiate with Iran with “no preconditions,” a shift in strategy after laying out a list of 12 hardline demands last year, a list that seemed to be a set of preconditions. Meanwhile, last week, President Trump stated that he was not seeking regime change in Iran, contradicting his national security adviser, John Bolton, who has repeatedly advocated for toppling the regime in Tehran.

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Politics

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Democrats Double Down on Trump Show Trial / Politics / US Politics

By: BATR

A majority of the public by now is sick of the witch hunt. Just imagine the fatigue and revolting sentiments that ordinary Americans have for the elitists and brainwashed libtards that want to impeach President Trump. Interminable Congressional hearings with no reasonable chance for Senate removal from office are in itself an abuse of legislative provocative. The William Jefferson Clinton impeachment demonstrated that a Republican Senate had a prearranged agreement to acquit before the trial began. If two-thirds of Senators could be mustered to convict, the RINO Republicans would need to demonstrate they are closet NeoCons.  

The show trial that the establishment 'Never Trumpers' would more likely be one of continued trashing by committees and endless media presstitute reporting. The Show Trials in the USSR had the purpose of protecting Stalin. The Marxist Democrats are the Amerika version of Bolshevism. Their aim is to maintain the Deep State in power. Maintaining the totalitarian culture of collectivism by systematically destroying our Constitutional Republic has reached a point of no return.

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Politics

Monday, June 03, 2019

UKIP Racists Infiltrating Brexit Party Will Kill it Electorally as they did UKIP / Politics / BrExit

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UKIP is DEAD! Electorally speaking as first the local election results and then the European Elections showed a total collapse of their vote to just 4%, losing all 24 of their MEP's as Gerard Battens embrace of the likes of Tommy "Fake Name" Robinson killed the party. Whilst TR himself only managed to scrape the bottom of the barrel with just 2% of the vote in the North West region. Basically UKIP and TR only got the perma BNP vote.

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Politics

Friday, May 31, 2019

The Bankers’ “Power Revolution”: How the Government Got Shackled by Debt / Politics / Banksters

By: Ellen_Brown

This article is excerpted from my new book Banking on the People: Democratizing Money in the Digital Age, available in paperback June 1.

The U.S. federal debt has more than doubled since the 2008 financial crisis, shooting up from $9.4 trillion in mid-2008 to over $22 trillion in April 2019. The debt is never paid off. The government just keeps paying the interest on it, and interest rates are rising.

In 2018, the Fed announced plans to raise rates by 2020 to “normal” levels — a fed funds target of 3.375 percent — and to sell about $1.5 trillion in federal securities at the rate of $50 billion monthly, further growing the mountain of federal debt on the market. When the Fed holds government securities, it returns the interest to the government after deducting its costs; but the private buyers of these securities will be pocketing the interest, adding to the taxpayers’ bill.

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Politics

Monday, May 27, 2019

War and Young Americans / Politics / US Military

By: Raul_I_Meijer

So we’re going to do this all over again? Well, not if I can help it. Not that I have much hope that I can, mind you. As the bastions of war chime on, my voice, like so many others, will be drowned out. The military industrial complex knows how to do propaganda, better than anyone. But I’ll try.

Vietnam gave the US its biggest ever defeat, both militarily and morally, and yet mere years after its deeply humiliating withdrawal was put into action, the country was back at sending its promising young boys and girls not to its school systems, but to far away battle fields to be crippled, traumatized and slaughtered.

I know, I know, the UK and France do that too, but few other places do. Russia today uses its troops to defend its territory, China has yet to reveal its intentions. But the intentions of the US have been known ever since WWII ended.

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Politics

Sunday, May 26, 2019

Brexit Party Forces Theresa May to Resign, Boris Johnson Next Tory Prime Minister? / Politics / UK Politics

By: N_Walayat

When the European election results are announced Sunday, Nigel Farage's Brexit party looks set to win as many as 30 of the 73 seats whilst the Tory party under Theresa May are set to suffer an electoral bloodbath by winning as few as 6 seats, which would be harbinger for a disastrous outcome at the next General Election. Thus the Tory party had little choice in finally forcing an inept and crippled Prime Minister Theresa May to resign Friday, ending what amounts to a miserable 3 years that not only failed to achieve Brexit but that the past 3 years had failed to achieve anything of substance as contrary to some of the mainstream press commentary Theresa May was NO Margaret Thatcher, not coming anywhere close, who instead is probably the worst British Prime Minister in living memory.

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Politics

Thursday, May 23, 2019

Trump's futile quest for a renminbi Plaza Accord  / Politics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

Recent US media reports claim China may depreciate its renminbi to cope with shrinking exports. Yet, economic realities are precisely the reverse. Worse, trade wars are about to hit American consumers.

Recently, the White House lifted tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200 billion of Chinese goods, while targeting another $300 billion worth of Chinese imports for potential punitive tariffs.

As was to be expected, the renminbi depreciated from 6.7 to more than 6.9 against the US dollar, mainly on renewed trade tensions.

China retaliated by imposing duties on $60 billion of US goods, starting June 1. China could have retaliated hard, but opted for a mild response that highlights the importance of talks.
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Politics

Wednesday, May 22, 2019

The Coming Pension Crisis Is So Big That It’s a Problem for Everyone / Politics / Pensions & Retirement

By: John_Mauldin

A decade ago I pointed out that public pension funds were $2 trillion underfunded and getting worse. More than one person told me that couldn’t be right.

They were correct: It was actually much worse. It has gotten to $2 trillion and much worse in just a few years.

Note that we are talking here about a specific kind of pension: defined benefit plans. They are usually sponsored by state and local governments, labor unions, and a number of private businesses.

Many sponsors haven’t set aside the assets needed to pay the benefits they’ve promised to current and future retirees. They can delay the inevitable for a long time but not forever. And “forever” is just around the corner.

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Politics

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

The Deep State vs Donald Trump - US vs Them Part 2 / Politics / US Politics

By: James_Quinn

In Part I of this article I discussed why the “Us versus Them” mindset permeates society and how Trump has become a lightning rod for hate. Now I will assess his progress in fighting the Deep State and try to peer into a murky future.

In addition to not being Hillary, the main reasons I voted for Trump was he promised to build the wall, he promised to repeal and replace Obamacare, he promised to end our foreign military interventions, he said he would bring fiscal sanity to the budget, he said the Federal Reserve had blown an immense stock market bubble, he questioned the fake economic data spouted by government drones, and he called out the fake news bullshit media. When I regularly assess his progress on these issues, the standard response from Trump acolytes is “Would you rather have Hillary?”. No, I would not. But that doesn’t get Trump off the hook for his failures in my book.

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Politics

Monday, May 20, 2019

WAR - Us versus Them Narrative / Politics / US Military

By: James_Quinn

“I’ll show you politics in America. Here it is, right here. “I think the puppet on the right shares my beliefs.” “I think the puppet on the left is more to my liking.” “Hey, wait a minute, there’s one guy holding out both puppets!”” – Bill Hicks

Anyone who frequents Twitter, Facebook, political blogs, economic blogs, or fakes news mainstream media channels knows our world is driven by the “Us versus Them” narrative. It’s almost as if “they” are forcing us to choose sides and believe the other side is evil. Bill Hicks died in 1994, but his above quote is truer today then it was then. As the American Empire continues its long-term decline, the proles are manipulated through Bernaysian propaganda techniques, honed over the course of decades by the ruling oligarchs, to root for their assigned puppets.

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Politics

Monday, May 20, 2019

US - Iran War Safe-haven Reasons to Own Gold / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Richard_Mills

“It’s the tail that wags the dog” is defined by Urban Dictionary as a way of persuading a large group of people. The phrase is usually employed in a situation wherein a cause that expects to elicit a certain effect, is in fact reversed.

The 1997 film ‘Wag the Dog’ is about a powerful political strategist who tries to get a fictional president on board with a PR campaign involving the US invasion of Albania, a tiny country in eastern Europe, in order to divert attention from a scandal at home just two weeks before an election.

Of course, you don’t need to watch a movie to know this. There are plenty of real-life examples of presidents who used foreign invasions, coups, wars, etc. to demonstrate strong leadership and thereby shore up faltering popularity at home.

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