Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The new items published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Australian Dollar vs. New Zealand Dollar: No Longer a One Way Bet Against the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
There’ve been a couple noticeable changes since the U.S. dollar index marked its most recent all‐time low on March 17th. Traders’ and investors’ appetite has been all mixed up.
The euro continued to rally to the $1.60 mark before falling about 5% versus the buck. It’s yet to recover. And I imagine this pair is under heavy scrutiny in determining the legitimacy of the dollar’s rally.
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Sunday, May 11, 2008
US Dollar Bottoming Against Major Currencies? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
The dollar is gripping tightly to its two-week rally even though the fundamentals have changed very little. So what's behind the market's sentiment shift?
Less-dovish rhetoric from the Fed? That could be part of it. After the FOMC meeting last Wednesday, the Fed is now expected to stop cutting rates for the foreseeable future.
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Thursday, May 08, 2008
Beware of the US Dollar's Fake Rally / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald
Don't mistake the U.S. dollar's recent rally for strength. If anything, it's a head fake of legendary proportions. In fact, the dollar's recent run-up is actually a warning that risks are escalating.
To better understand what I mean here, let's look at the greenback's recent performance against the euro. After bottoming at an all-time low of $1.6019 versus the euro on April 22, the dollar has soared nearly 4% and was trading at $1.5428 per euro early yesterday (Wednesday).
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Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Crude Oil - US Dollar Divergence / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
We got a fairly decent level of angst mail yesterday, in relation to the series of charts John Ross put together, suggesting maybe the market is telling us the buck has bottomed. Some of the usual conspiracy kooks and some very real and solid reasons why the buck will make new lows again were included in our email box. Thank you to all for your feedback. We always appreciate it and learn from it.
One of our readers asked the following excellent question: “[B]ut how to explain dollar/oil to the crowd following that correlation?”
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Sunday, May 04, 2008
US Dollar Long-term Cyclic Trend Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Tim_Wood
Cycles are really just another way of looking at various trends of various degrees. Also, cycles in the market are really no different than many other cycles in nature. As an example, sometimes we have an early spring and sometimes it's late. Sometimes a particular bird's migration is earlier than normal and sometimes it can be a bit later than normal. In some winters the northern states experience more snow than in other years. Sometimes we have very active hurricane seasons and sometime we don't. The same is true with cycles in the market as they too, fluctuate in duration and intensity. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
How the FOMC Interest Rate Meeting Will Impact US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week. As you might imagine, a lively topic of conversation this weekend among currency traders is the direction of the infamous Fed Funds rate.
The obvious question leading up to Tuesday's interest rate decision: What are the implications of this FOMC meeting on the U.S. dollar? More specifically, has the Fed Funds rate found a bottom, or does the U.S. central bank have more work to do?
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Monday, April 28, 2008
British Pound: RELATIVELY Strong … / Currencies / British Pound
By: Black_Swan
We’ve been dogging on the pound for a series of months now. And for the most part, we expect to be dogging on it for months to come. Basically, weak economic data points are going to weigh on Bank of England and their interest rate policies. That, in turn, should undermine the pound. But ...Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
“Hallelujah” for the Falling US Dollar?! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
Hallelujah, of course, is a word of praise. To use that word to describe the fact that the USD has lost 40% of its value in the last 5 years, however, is economic blasphemy. Yet last week on television I had the pleasure of debating a well known strategist on the fallout of our crumbling currency and his angelic chorus was heard praising the falling dollar because of his belief that it would boost exports, rescue the economy from recession and encourage future GDP growth. Truly, “Hallelujah for the falling dollar!” is exactly what he exclaimed.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Gold US Dollar Trend Divergence-Trading in this Market is No Kids’ Game … / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
This morning, for our Currency Currents Members, we delved upon the divergence between gold and the U.S. dollar. Ultimately, we feel this relationship could prove crucial to the direction the currency market takes now and a short ways down the road.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Elliott Wave on Crude and the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dan_Stinson
Short Term Forecast Update - With a little more action in place, we have an update on the USD and Crude.US Dollar
The USD appears as an ending diagonal triangle pattern, currently in wave 4 of wave (5). The last update indicated that the USD was possibly in a (contracting) triangle but it will likely complete as an (ending diagonal) triangle.
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Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Gold Highs, US Dollar Lows Not for Long / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Paulenoff
There is a fascinating technical situation in the euro-$ vs. the pattern
exhibited by spot gold prices. All of the action in the euro from March 17
has carved out a "wedge" type of formation, with flag tops and rising lows,
which should resolve itself in one pop to the upside into new high territory
above 1.5915 prior to a powerful and nasty downside reversal.
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Monday, April 14, 2008
Currency Snapshot- Tough Luck for the Canadian Buck… / Currencies / Canadian $
By: Black_Swan
This time last year we were talking about the brilliant run the Canadian dollar was making towards dollar‐parity. Sure enough, in dramatic fashion, the Loonie crossed the $1 mark.
But for much of that historic run, the Canadian dollar traded in a tight negative correlation to the U.S. dollar – the dollar went down as the Loonie went up, or vice versa. It was in August of last year that the correlation began to fall apart. The red vertical line in the following chart marks the spot ...
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Saturday, April 12, 2008
Is a Mexican Peso Currency Correction Overdue? / Currencies / Mexico
By: Black_Swan
While perusing the latest Commitment of Traders Report, published on April 1st, we noticed that among the punters, like us, there was a 95% bullish reading i.e. 95% long open interest says players are positioned for the peso to move higher against the US dollar. This seems a fairly concentrated one-way bet. Often one-way bets lead to corrections, or intermediate-term trend changes.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 10, 2008
US Dollar Crunch Time / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
‘Dollar’ and ‘Troubles’: two words that seem to go hand‐in‐hand these days. Well, if you’re disturbed about how poorly the dollar stacks up against major world currencies, I have bad news. Things could get much worse.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Has the US Dollar Bottomed? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: "A bottom in the dollar? Are you kidding me?" are just two of the incredulous questions you might be asking after reading this title. All snickering aside, I do think it's time to start considering something as outlandish as that.
Despite still strong evidence to the contrary, there is compelling logic to suggest that, yes, the buck has bottomed. And if that is in fact the case, a sustained rally in the greenback would certainly present a rather lucrative proposition. Today, we'll delve into that very scenario.
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