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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Monday, February 19, 2018

Stock Market Decision Point! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
 Intermediate trend –  An intermediate correction from 2872 is currently underway.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 18, 2018

Will the Stock Market Make a Double Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Submissions

Troy Bombardia writes:The S&P 500 has already fallen more than -10% (-11.8% to be precise). A brief study using VIX suggested that the stock market would retest its lows in the next few weeks. Let’s expand that study.

What happens when the S&P falls at least -10% and then retraces 50% of the decline? Is the bottom in? Or does the S&P at least retest its lows?

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 17, 2018

1 Week Later, Stock, Bond Market Risk Remains ‘On’ as 2 of 3 Amigos Ride On / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

Despite a tough week for stocks into Friday, February 9, three big picture macro indicators have continued to support a risk ‘on’ backdrop. Many of the shorter-term indicators we watch, like Junk bond ratios and the Palladium/Gold ratio say the same thing. Junk/Treasury and Junk/Investment Grade are threatening new highs and as we have noted in NFTRH updates all through the recent market volatility, Palladium (cyclical) got hammered vs. Gold (counter-cyclical), but only to test its major uptrend. Now the ratio is bouncing with the market relief that is so predictably taking hold (here’s a public post where we effectively called bullish, in-day on that Friday).

As for the bigger macro indicators, the middle one, Amigo #2 (long-term interest rates) has that funny look on his face because he is bracing for something.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 16, 2018

How to Trade as We Near March Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our focus is to provide you with updated and accurate market price predictions for all of 2018, we believe we are entering a period that will be fantastic for traders and active investors.  We believe this recent volatility has shaken out the low volatility expectations and will allow the markets to start moving in a more normal rotational mode going forward.  This means we’ll have lots of trading opportunities to profit from.

For those of you who have not been following our research over the past 2 to 3 months, we urge you to visit our Technical Traders Ltd. website to read our published research and to learn how we’ve been calling these moves in the markets for our members.  We called the early 2018 market rally weeks before it started.  We called the lower price rotation over a month before it happened.  We called the bottom in this price correction almost to the day and told our members that we believed a very quick Pennant price formation was set up that will drive prices higher which we have seen this week.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 16, 2018

IS Today Thee Stock Market Turn Day? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures were higher overnight, but appear to be coming back down as the cash open approaches. The total retracement was 58.5%, an overshoot that was carried by the all-pervading enthusiasm to buy the dip coupled with a stop hunt to remove any timid short sellers who thought they could protect themselves with stop-losses.

.ZeroHedge reports, “Global stocks were set to post their best week of gains in six years on Friday after two consecutive weeks spent in the red, shrugging off a rise in global borrowing costs while the dollar hit its lowest level since 2014. The MSCI world index rose 0.4% after European bourses opened. .After suffering its biggest weekly drop since August 2015 last week, this week’s recovery puts the index on track for its best weekly showing since early December 2011.”

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 16, 2018

Have You Been Getting Run Over By This Stock Market Action? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

"Stocks are going down because the economy is too good?"

How many times did you hear something like that quote over the last two weeks on television? And, it was accompanied by the barrage of reports proclaiming the demise of the bull market which began in 2009. But, if you are a thinking person, clearly you had to have been scratching your head.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Stock Market Final Word... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

A final word this afternoon…

It appears that this rally will last between 3:00 and 4:00 today. The reason I say that is because sometime after 3:00 the rally will have taken 30.1 hours or 4.3 days. So, as well as reaching its Fibonacci levels, the 50-day MA and Wave relationships, SPX will have made a half-Cycle of 4.3 days from bottom to top.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Big Conflict Ahead in the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

TNX futures are in focus this morning as yields creep ever higher. The overnight high was 29.44, and while the 150% Fib level is at 29.66. Since then it has pulled back, but there does not seem to be an end to higher rates, yet. There may possibly be one more probe higher to the top. Possible targets range from 30.18 to 31.36.

As Northman Trader pointed out yesterday, there is a Cup with Handle formation with the Lip at 27.00 that suggests a probable target for Wave 5 near 37.00. However, the Cycles Model suggests a probable retracement to the neckline may occur first.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Stocks Extend Rally Off Friday's Low, But Short-Term Exhaustion Near / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

S&P 500 index gained 1.3% on Wednesday, following lower opening of the trading session. The market has extended its rally from Friday's low. But will it continue higher today? We can see some short-term overbought conditions. Was this two-week-long sell-off the beginning of a new medium-term downtrend or just downward correction before another leg up? It's hard to say, but this move down set the negative tone for weeks or months to come.

The U.S. stock market extended its short-term uptrend on Wednesday. The main indexes gained 1.0-1.9% following lower opening of the trading session. The S&P 500 index broke above its Monday-Tuesday trading range. The broad stock market gauge retraced most of its last week's Wednesday-Friday's sell-off, as it got close to 2,700 mark again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 1.9% yesterday.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Stock Market Out on a Limb... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The time expended on the decline to 2638.17 at the close on February 5 was exactly 43 hours. That was the evidence that I had led me to believe that it was the end of Wave (1). The opening gap at 2593.07 on Tuesday February 6 appeared to be a Wave B. That allowed me to believe that Wave (1) had finished. What appeared to be an extra Wave now turns out to be the finish of Wave 3. There are multiple factors going into this re-write of the Elliott Waves. The main one is that the 50% retracement of the entire decline to February 9 is at 2704.99. Today’s high is 2701.86. It appears that an A-B-C rally from the low is complete, as well.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Stocks, Bonds on the Edge... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The last couple of days have been testing our patience. The 61.8% retracement of Wave 1 has been surpassed and the SPX futures are making marginally new retracement highs. I feel compelled to say that the cautionary levels for SPX is the 78.6% retracement at 2685.00.

ZeroHedge observes, “As we previewed earlier this week, only one number matters for the markets - both stocks and bonds - this week, and it will be released at 8:30am this morning, when the BLS unveils the January CPI print, dubbed by various trading desks as "the most important CPI print ever", with every trader, both carbon and semiconductor based, focusing only on whether core CPI comes at 0.2% as expected, or higher. If it's the latter, TSY yields will spike - conventional wisdom goes - while the second leg of the equity rout could be unleashed. Inversely, if the core CPI disappoints, we may see a sharp move lower in 10Y yields and the dollar, while stocks prepare to retest all time highs.”

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Is Stock Market “Short Volatility” Blow-Up Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Graham_Summers

The markets have changed and many are going to get “taken to the cleaners.”

Last year, 2017, was a not a normal year for stocks. Stocks as an asset class are not meant to go straight up without even a 1% pullback. But that is precisely what happened for nearly an entire year.

Now that massive market rig is over. And anyone who continues to invest as though it’s 2017 is going to get annihilated in the coming weeks. The only thing that stop an all out crash in stocks was clear and obvious intervention in the markets by Central Banks.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Stock Market Dead Cat Bounce is Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Graham_Summers

The Fed is “letting the stock market go.”

As I’ve outlined multiple times, if the Fed has to choose between supporting the bond bubble or supporting stocks, it will choose bonds Every. Single. Time.

The fact is that in a debt-saturated world such as the one we live in today, if stocks collapse, investors and Wall Street get angry. If bonds collapse, entire countries go bust.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Stock Market is Getting Scary... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Today was a bit of frustration. The SPX wouldn’t go down, but it didn’t go higher, either. Tomorrow appears to be gearing up for a big down day. Wave relationships suggest that possibly both the Head & Shoulders and Broadening Wedge targets may be reached in the next two days. Do the math. That’s approximately a 20% decline from here.

Mike (Mish) Shedlock comments, “Interbank lending took a historic dive. Readers ask "What's happening?" Let's investigate.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Stock Market - This Time is Different. Really?! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Axel_Merk

“Don’t panic, buy the dip, who cares?” or “These are rumblings of an earthquake, people will be hurt like in 1929” - which one is it? I would call it a wake-up call. Let me explain:

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

SPX Futures Are Sliding... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures are sliding as the decline begins to take hold again. SPX retraced 71.7% of Wave 1, mainly due to the stop hunt that was done to wipe out the shorts. This constitutes a near 50% retracement of the entire decline. Most Elliotticians are still looking for a 61.8% retracement, as they believe that Wave (1) had concluded on Friday.

The reason w only got a 53.5% retracement on Wave (1) is because virtually no one was short until the 50-day Moving Average was crossed. Thus we see this rebound making the 61.8% retrace, as more traders were willing to go short, but with stops.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Stock Market Topping Process Begins. The Bubble Finds its Pin. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Plunger

Volatility has now returned to the stock market after a hibernation of several years. An explosion of volatility normally is indicative of a change of trend. The recent signals transmitted by this market have been classic  and has been telling us that we have entered the final topping process of this extended and stretched economic cycle.  The trading over the past 7 market sessions fit a classic pattern of market panic which corrects  the excesses of a market which just completed an upside climax and had been without correction for close to two years.  I believe this panic is now over and the muscle memory of buy the dip will now reassert itself.  That however does not mean good times will continue as the froth has now been blown off of the bubble.

Anecdotal signs of a market top have been flashing loud and clear now for the past 6 months. Since last summer the public has finally embraced this market and over the last 3 months have been recklessly plunging head long into it. Complacency reigns supreme so that after last Friday’s 666 point drop even the superstitious remained complacent.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Math Behind the Stock Market Crash and What’s Next – PART2 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Yesterday we shared with you Part I – big picture analysis “math” Behind the recent sell-off. Today, we want to show you the what the math is pointing to in the short term and what to expect next.

For this type of analysis, we are going to use the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) modeling system that attempts to tear apart price and technical data from within a chart and reconstruct future price data by learning from the past.  In these examples, we will focus on Weekly and Monthly data going forward about 25 periods.  The intent is to clearly illustrate how our earlier analysis (completed near the end of December 2017) is still aligning with our current analysis.  Amazing how these things all plug together like a big puzzle when you think about it.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 12, 2018

Friday's S&P 500 Stock Market Bounce To Continue, But Selling May Resume / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

S&P 500 index gained 1.5% on Thursday, as it retraced some of its recent sell-off, following Wednesday's downward reversal. The broad stock market traded the lowest since early October, before bouncing off from around 2,530. Is this two-week-long sell-off the beginning of a new medium-term downtrend or just downward correction? It's hard to say, but this move down set the negative tone for weeks or months to come.

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 1.4-1.5% on Friday following bouncing off new short-term lows, as investors' sentiment improved in the second half of the trading session. The S&P 500 index fell the lowest since the early October. It traded 11.8% below its January 26 record high of 2,872.87 (-340.2 points). Both Dow Jones Industrial Average and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4% on Friday.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 12, 2018

The Inflation Trade and Bond Yields Rising Result in Equities Correction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Abalgorithm

The Dow has one of its biggest percentage weekly decline since 2008. The sudden return of volatility across global markets has triggered the biggest stampede out of equity funds on record. Investors yanked a net $30.6 billion out of equity funds in the week through Wednesday, according to fund tracker EPFR Global. That’s the largest weekly net outflow based on data going back to 2004, based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis of EPFR data. The exodus out of stock funds wasn’t a global phenomenon. Asia benefited from fund flows in the latest week to Feb. 7, even as major indexes there tumbled too. Investors poured a net $4.7 billion into Japanese equity funds alone, the biggest weekly inflow since November 2016, the data show. Investors also sent a net $528.5 million into South Korean stock funds, the largest weekly influx this year.

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