Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

US Stock Market Indices Continue Their Upward Trend

Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets Oct 10, 2010 - 02:39 PM GMT

By: Peter_Navarro

Stock-Markets

The good news: The US market indices continue their upward trend last week as the Dow Jones industrial average broke above the 11,000 mark for the first time in over five months. The bad news: this latest market uptrend appears not to be driven by good economic news but rather by an emerging "carry trade" driven by the easy money policies of the US and a number of other countries around the world, including Japan.


The carry trade game here is simply to borrow money from the Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan via low interest rates and invest in the stock market. In this carry trade, the dollar falls and the US markets go up but the net effect in real, dollar adjusted terms is negligible.

From this perspective, any price appreciation in the stock market is merely offsetting negative currency effects. This is hardly a bullish scenario. That's why while this may be a good market for short-term traders, it is a dangerous one for longer-term investors tempted to move cash off the sidelines.

What bugs me about all this is a Wall Street "patriotism" that equates the debasement of the currency and easy money with something it must be good for the country because it's good for the markets. What a crock.

All of this will continue until countries around the world confront China on its mercantilist and protectionist trade policies. China's grossly undervalued and manipulated currency alone is driving the monetary policy not just of the United States but also most of the countries in Asia. A weak Chinese yuan forces Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and all of China's major competitors in Asia to try to drive their currencies down. Meanwhile, the commodity countries like Brazil and Australia are going bonkers because their currencies are bearing the lion's share of the burden of China's beggar thy neighbor currency regime through currency appreciations of their own – and result in export difficulties.

What I find really irritating as well is the rush of American journalists – Exhibit A is Fareed Zakaria's mindless apology for China in this week's Time magazine – to support Chinese mercantilism and protectionism. It's not even blind ideology on Zakaria’s part. It's just plain arrogance and stupidity. If you get on enough TV shows and get asked your opinion enough, you start to believe you actually know something. My guess, however, is that when the light weight Zakaria is on any TV set, they have to nail his shoes to the floor so he won't float away.

Anyway, that's my rant for the week and I'm sticking to it. The sober analysis is that this is an upward trending market with a wall of worry that is primarily macro-based. Climb it with caution.

Stocks that I am holding: SNTA, DEPO,DUSA,LPTN,NRGX,QTWW,SVMI,SNT,SBOTF,CYB,TBT,MITI,
GME(SHORT),DTV,VVUS,HOV,TEVA,SOMX,MDVN

Updates: I cashed out the rest of my Chelsea – will reload if it dips below $5. I took a small loss in YRCW, which did a reverse stock split and wiped out all the fun speculation on a penny stock. I will add to TBT every time it drops a buck.

As a final note, there are often typos in this newsletter and the culprit has to do with the fact that much of it is dictated using Dragon Naturally Speaking. The accuracy rate is quite high, but some silly things do slip through. So if you see something that doesn't look quite right, trust the syntax and make your own internal correction.

Navarro on TheStreet.com

Click here to review my videos on TheStreet.com.
———-

Professor Navarro’s articles have appeared in a wide range of publications, from Business Week, the Los Angeles Times, New York Times and Wall Street Journal to the Harvard Business Review, the MIT Sloan Management Review, and the Journal of Business. His free weekly newsletter is published at www.PeterNavarro.com.

© 2010 Copyright Peter Navarro - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in