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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Friday, February 22, 2019

Gold Bullhorns Quieted for a Day, at Least / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Over in the gold patch things went from disinterested and downright antagonistic (A Notable Lack of Interest in Gold) to sleepy (Gold “Community” Crickets) to ferociously over bullish.

Any long-time and right minded gold bug will tell you that the latter condition is usually a signal to prepare for some turbulence.checkWednesday and Thursday brought the turbulence in the form of a reversal and pullback for gold, silver and the miners.

Since we became constructive on the gold sector in Q4 2018 (per the links above and especially NFTRH reports/updates) the groundswell of gold boosting (pom poms and all) has steadily risen since it became obvious that something bullish was going on in January. And it appears that last week’s breakout from various daily chart bull flags in gold, silver and the miners finally jerked ’em all in. Enter the Thursday pullback.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 21, 2019

Gold Weakens After FOMC Minutes / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The recent minutes show that the Fed is divided over future rate hikes. How should gold investors react?

To Hike, or not to Hike, That Is The Question

As Chairman Powell has been good at communicating the US central bank’s plans, the recent FOMC minutes do not contain too many surprises. In January, the Fed took investors by surprise, saying that it could be patient on interest rates. The minutes elaborated on this, explaining that a patient approach offers many benefits – additional data would shed some light on the recent softness in inflation, would enable the Fed official to observe effects of past rate hikes and would allow time for a clearer picture of trade and fiscal policy, and the state of the global economy – and only few risks, as inflationary pressure is muted, while asset valuations less stretched:

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Commodities

Thursday, February 21, 2019

Gold Technical Perspective – Why So Bullish? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

Does technical analysis need to be so convoluted?  Here are a couple of definitions from different sources:

1Convoluted: (especially of an argument, story, or sentence) extremely complex and difficult to follow. (source)

2) Convoluted sentences, explanations, arguments, etc. are unreasonably long and difficult to understand.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 21, 2019

Why Is Central Bank Buying Of Gold So Important? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

There is an old Yiddish expression called a bubbe meise (pronounced my-seh). I guess the closest English interpretation of this expression would be a grandmother’s tale, or in the common vernacular, an old-wives' tale.

Of late, I am seeing a bubbe meise about the importance of central bank buying of gold, and it is making its rounds on websites all over the internet.

We have been hearing for many years about how gold is supposed to soar because countries and central banks are buying the precious metal. Most of the fundamentalists in this market are convinced that this is a bullish signal. In fact, one article I read explained that central bank buying “is significant, as central banks are the 'smart money' given their influence on global economics and access to non-public information.”

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Has Gold Price Reached Upside Resistance Near $1340-1360? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research has indicated that precious metals should be setting up for a period of rotation and sideways trading over the next 20~30 days.  We issued a research post on January 28, 2019 warning that precious metals would be consolidated over a 30~45 day period before setting up for a massive upside price move, here.  This research was based on our Adaptive Dynamic Learning price modeling system and from our Adaptive Learning Cycles system.  We believe this research is still very valid and want to alert metals traders that resistance in GOLD can be easily identified near $1340-1360.

The Weekly gold chart, below, highlights the resistance channel that originates in 2016 and continues with multiple peaks in 2017, 2018 and now.  We believe this resistance will act as a price ceiling over the next few weeks before metals prices attempt an upside breakout as we suggested in our January 28 research post.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Gold and the Great Global Wealth Grab / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Gold continues to soar, up 14% in the last six months and now challenging its 2018 highs.

If you’re looking to understand why Gold continues to rally, you don’t have to look any further than the political arena where more and more politicians are calling for wealth taxes and cash grabs.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

HUI Update…A Treat for Long Suffering Gold Traders / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

Below is the combo chart which has the HUI on top, the UUP in the middle and GLD on the bottom. Everything looks fine.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Gold Stocks are Following This Historical Template / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Roughly one year ago and prior to that we observed that the gold stocks could be following the recovery template from what we deemed a “mega bear market.”

We define that as a bear market that is over two and a half years in time and over 80% in price. It cuts both ways.

The gold stocks from 2011 to January 2016 had declined more than 80% and for more than four years. It was a textbook mega bear market.

The sharp recovery in 2016 quickly faded and left us wondering if there was a historical comparison.

Turns out, there are three strong and relevant comparisons.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Should We Declare Emergency for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Sixteen states sue Trump over border wall emergency. Is it good or bad for the yellow metal?

Trump’s National Emergency and Gold

On Friday, President Trump declared a national emergency to obtain funds for building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, which was his key promise during a campaign. According to the President’s proclamation :

the current situation at the southern border presents a border security and humanitarian crisis that threatens core national security interests and constitutes a national emergency. The southern border is a major entry point for criminals, gang members, and illicit narcotics.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

The Coming Restoration of Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

The way I see it, silver has basically two major categories of use. The first and most important use is as a monetary asset. It is only when used as a monetary asset that it could realize its true (or fair) value.

Currently, it is probably as far away (not time wise though) from being used as a monetary asset, as it has ever been. It is for this reason that silver is so under valued and such a must-buy.

The second is really all other uses that is strictly non-monetary. This is how it is currently (materially) being used. Under this scenario it is just another asset that rises in price when excessive credit (including money printing) is created.

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Commodities

Sunday, February 17, 2019

Fed Chairman Deceives; Precious Metals Mine Supply Threatened / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Chris Martenson of PeakProsperity.com and famous author of The Crash Crouse and his latest book Prosper! joins me to dissect what’s behind the Yellow Vest movement in France and why the mainstream media and those in power simply don’t want you to know what’s really going on there. Chris also tells us which precious metal he most favors right now. Don’t miss another wonderful interview with the great Chris Martenson, coming up after this week’s market update.

In a recent speech, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell told some real whoppers. We’ll address his misrepresentations head on, in just a bit.

But first, let’s review this week’s market action. Despite drama in Washington over averting a government shutdown and prompting President Donald Trump to declare a national emergency on the border, nothing too dramatic is happening in the gold market. 

Prices are trading in a tight range, coming in essentially unchanged from last Friday’s close. Gold currently trades at $1,316 per ounce.

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Commodities

Friday, February 15, 2019

Plunging Inventories have Zinc Bulls Ready to Run / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Richard_Mills

On Tuesday zinc inventories in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses sunk into territory that one metal analyst believes could signal a major price kick for the base metal, used mostly for galvanizing steel to prevent corrosion.

The one-year chart below shows LME inventories falling steadily, touching the 108,425-tonne mark as of Feb. 11 - a 52-week low. It’s a long way from the annual high of 256,175 tonnes reached in August.

Cormark Securities mining analyst Stefan Ioannou said last fall that if zinc supply drops 2,000 to 3,000 tonnes a day it would be a very bullish price signal, especially if inventories go as low as 100,000 tonnes. The one-week chart shows zinc inventories dropping from 112,750 tonnes on Feb. 5 to 108,500t on Feb 11 - a fall of 4,250 tonnes, and within only 8,000 tonnes of Ioannou’s100,000t target zone.

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Commodities

Friday, February 15, 2019

Gold Stocks Mega Mergers Are Bad for Shareholders / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The world’s two biggest gold miners both announced mega-mergers over the past 5 months or so.  These huge deals briefly garnered some interest in the usually-forgotten gold-stock sector, and fleeting praise from Wall Street analysts.  But gold-stock mega-mergers are bad news for gold-miner shareholders on all sides.  They reveal the serious struggles of major gold miners, and really retard future upside in their stocks.

For decades the largest gold miners in the world have been Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX).  These behemoths have long dwarfed all their peers in operational scope.  While the gold miners are in the process of reporting Q4’18 results now, their latest complete set remains Q3’18’s.  As after every quarterly earnings season, I analyzed them in depth for the major gold miners of GDX back in mid-November.

The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF is the world’s leading and dominant gold-stock investment vehicle.  In Q3 alone NEM and ABX mined a staggering 1286k and 1149k ounces of gold!  To put this in perspective, the average of the next 8 largest gold miners rounding out the top 10 was just 508k ounces.  Newmont and Barrick have long been in a league of their own, with commensurate market capitalizations.

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Commodities

Friday, February 15, 2019

Is Gold Market 2019 Like 2016? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Have you even wanted to travel in time? You can, at least when reading about the gold market. Many analysts claim that this year is like 2016 for the gold market. We invite you to read our today’s article about the similarities and differences between the precious metals market then and today and find out what do they imply for the gold prices.

Finally, the scientists have invented the time machine! This is at least what we hear from many people: that we went back in time to 2016. Indeed, there are certain similarities between the precious metals market then and today. What are they – and what do they imply for the gold prices?

Let’s look at the chart below, which shows the price of the yellow metal since December 2015. As one can see, gold has rallied since December 2018, just like three years earlier.

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Commodities

Friday, February 15, 2019

Gold is on the Verge of a Bull-run and Here's Why / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Umer_Mahmood

The majority of gold traders are very bearish on the gold market currently. The sentiment could signal a start of a possible jump in price for the precious metal.

If you are also expecting such a price shift, you might want to consider buying the SPDR Gold Shares ( a fund holding bullion bars).
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Will 2019 be the Year of the Big Breakout for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Michael_J_Kosares

In each of the last three years, gold has gotten off to a strong start only to fizzle as the year moved along.  Will 2019 be the year gold finally breaks the pattern? A good many investors, fund managers and analysts think that 2019 might very well be the year when gold breaks the restraints and pushes to higher ground.  One of those is Carter Worth of Cornerstone Macro in New York who CNBC’s Melissa Lee refers to as “the chart master.”  In a recent interview with Lee, Worth referred to the long-term chart below saying that there is “a well-defined set-up and a lot of tension” which he says is going to resolve to the upside – “a breakout to all-time highs.”  With respect to gold’s relationship to the dollar, Worth says “Gold’s got its own momentum now. . .It is all setting-up for higher gold prices and trouble for equities, trouble for the economy.”

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Where Is Gold’s Rally in Response to USD Weakness? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Yesterday, the USD Index moved substantially lower while precious metals barely yawned. Why is gold not rallying? What does the gold-USD link tell us now, in combination with latest developments throughout the PMs sector? Let’s examine these and many more clues together.

Almost nothing happened yesterday in gold and silver, while miners moved a bit lower. The latter is a bearish indication, but not the most important one that we saw. The key issue is that what happened in the gold-USD link showed that gold was previously not showing strength with regard to the US currency. Yesterday’s action confirmed our yesterday’s thoughts on that matter. We explained the reasoning behind the lack of decline in gold in light of USD’s rally in the following way:

One reason might be that gold is simply showing strength, as it doesn’t want to move lower – it’s waiting for factors on which it could rally. But we don’t think that this the correct interpretation. There are multiple long-term bearish factors that remain in place and thus it seems that there might be a different interpretation. And there is. Actually, there are two reasons due to which this might be the case.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Key Support Levels for Gold Miners & Gold Juniors / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold stocks have to do more to confirm they are in a new bull market.

Sure, they’ve surged above key moving average resistance and breadth has improved.

However, the gold stocks have not yet broken the pattern of lower highs and breadth, while improved, is not at bull market levels yet. Let’s review where things currently stand.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Gold Market in 2019: WGC versus LBMA / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Both the WGC and LBMA published outlooks for the global economy and gold market in 2019. Who is right?

WGC’s Outlook for Gold in 2019

Let’s start from the World Gold Council (WGC) which published its 2019 outlook on January 10th. As befits the organization representing industry’s interests, the WGC is bullish on gold prices. No surprises here. According to the institution, the following trends will mainly shape the gold market in 2019: financial market instability, monetary policy and the US dollar, and structural economic reforms.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Gold Prices Continue to Breakdown / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

On January 28, 2019, our research team issued a research post indicating we believed that Precious Metals would rotate lower over the next 45+ days in preparation for a momentum base/breakout that would initiate sometime near the end of April or early May. Recent price weakness in Gold has begun to confirm our analysis and we believe this price weakness will continue for the next 2~4 weeks while traders identify a price bottom and hammer out a momentum base/support level.

Gold is currently down another -1% this week and testing the $1307 level after rotating back to near $1320.  Our analysis continues to suggest price weakness in the Precious Metals markets going forward for at least 2~3 more weeks.  We are expecting the price of Gold to fall below $1290 and ultimately, potentially, test the $1260 level where we believe true support will be found.

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