Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, December 22, 2024
Fed Tests Gold Price Upleg / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The Federal Reserve somehow surprised traders with a hawkish rate cut this week. While that had been expected, apparently the Fed’s projected rate-cut trajectory slowed even more than feared. So market reactions were violent, including the US dollar blasting higher unleashing heavy gold-futures selling. This is the latest in a long line of Fed-spawned tests of gold’s resilience, challenging its current monster upleg.
From early October 2023 to late October 2024, gold skyrocketed 53.1% higher achieving a rare 40%+ monster-status upleg! Gold powered to 43 new nominal record closes in that remarkable span, despite massive uplegs’ usual driver being missing-in-action. Enamored with the AI stock bubble, American stock investors weren’t chasing gold’s upside momentum at all. That’s evident in the dominant gold ETFs’ holdings.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Silver’s Evolving Market: Bright Prospects and Lingering Challenges / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Submissions
Silver is stepping back into the spotlight, glinting with the promise of rising prices, surging demand, and shifting market dynamics. Building on insights from my previous article, “Silver Worth $150-$170? Facts to Make the Case for a Major Price Surge,” it’s clear the metal isn’t just playing second fiddle to gold, it’s tuning up for its own symphony.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Extreme Levels of Work-for-Gold Ratio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
How many hours of work would it take to purchase one ounce of gold? Now you’ll know.
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Got Copper or Gold Miners? Watch Out / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Copper, silver, and gold quite often move together, especially during the big moves.
Impending Massive Slide
And this is currently very helpful.
Given gold’s recent decline and a much bigger decline in silver and mining stocks, one might wonder whether miners’ and silver’s weakness are telling the truth about the precious metals market’s outlook, or if it’s gold that’s been holding up relatively well.
Sunday, December 08, 2024
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In my yesterday’s Gold Trading Alert, I wrote that we had some clues regarding the end of the corrective upswing.
Corrective Upswing Nearing Its End
We saw an invalidation in the GDXJ (of the tiny move to new short-term highs), and before that silver outperformed on a short-term basis, which was also a bearish indication. Today, we got some more.
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Sunday, December 08, 2024
Gold Price Monster Upleg Lives / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold’s monster upleg remains alive and well, after weathering a sharp post-election selloff. One had certainly been due, as gold had just surged to extremely-overbought levels. The resulting pullback was big and fast, doing much essential rebalancing work. Gold’s resilience defying some bearish headwinds is a bullish omen. Despite its massive size, this monster upleg doesn’t look ready to give up its ghost yet.
I don’t use this “monster” term lightly, reserving it for gold uplegs exceeding 40% gains. Over a long 12.9-month span from early October 2023 to late October 2024, gold rocketed a jaw-dropping 53.1% higher! A year ago gold achieved its first nominal record close in fully 3.3 years. Since then, a whopping 42 more have been written into the books! Superlatives don’t overstate the magnitude of gold’s powerful bull run.
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Friday, November 29, 2024
Gold After Trump Wins / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has sure had a wild ride in the several weeks since the US elections! It first plunged then surged after Trump’s decisive victory, which surprised legions of traders. Gold’s earlier big down days helped fuel fears another Trump administration is bearish for gold. Its poor performance after Trump’s first win eight years ago buttresses that case. But that’s probably not predictive in today’s wildly-different environment.
On Election Day 2024, gold closed at $2,743. That was just 1.5% under its latest nominal record high achieved four trading days earlier. But the next day when Trump’s big win was already apparent, gold plunged 3.0%. That was its worst day by far since a 3.6% plummeting in early June on a huge US-jobs upside surprise, which in turn was gold’s biggest daily loss in 3.6 years. Then more post-election selling came.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Today we finally see it – the USDX moved lower at last. USD’s breather here is nothing surprising, and it’s not bearish either.It’s simply normal for a market to correct after launching a rally as strong as what we saw in October and November.
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Thursday, November 21, 2024
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
That’s an interesting situation that we have today. Gold us up, but silver and miners are down. What gives?Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 03, 2024
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks are heading into their winter rally, when strong seasonal tailwinds help boost their advances. This is especially pronounced when gold stocks’ primary drivers of sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals are bullish, which is certainly true today. This sector is nearing a psychological tipping point of surging popularity, making secular breakouts, and earning record profits fueled by these record gold prices.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behaviors driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
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Monday, October 28, 2024
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Hubert_Moolman
The current setup on the silver chart is a lot like the start of the silver bull market of the early 2000s. In those days silver was under $5 and considered cheap.
The current bottoming pattern from around 2014 to now is very similar to the early 2000s bottoming pattern (see the chart below).
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Sunday, October 27, 2024
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Hubert_Moolman
Since the creation of the Federal Reserve, the Dow Jones has significantly outperformed silver.
It was only during brief periods before the 1919 and 1980 silver peaks that silver was able to outperform the Dow (see the Dow/Silver chart below).
Monday, September 30, 2024
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Gold might be losing out to stocks when it comes to headlines. But, the precious metal also just hit all-time highs and did it in style -- rocketing 35% in seven months.
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Sunday, September 22, 2024
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Submissions
When the Federal Reserve decides to slash interest rates, it sets off a domino effect in the financial world, and precious metals like gold and silver are among the first to feel the impact. Yesterday, we saw a 0.50% cut, so it’s time to revisit how these metals have historically performed… and let’s just say, they’ve put on quite the show.
The Golden (and Silver) Truth About Fed Rate Cuts
Since 2000, gold and silver have shown a knack for appreciating when the Fed cuts rates by a full half percentage point. Here’s a look at how they’ve danced to the Fed’s tune:
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Thursday, September 12, 2024
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The CPI data is going to be released today, so the markets are tense.
Gold's Gains Limited by Short-Term Resistance
Gold moved slightly higher, but the very short-term resistance line based on the previous highs keeps gold’s gains in check.
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Sunday, September 08, 2024
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is Set Up To Shine / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
When I think about the metals market, I chuckle as it has obliterated just about every expectation many have had about what drives the market.
We have seen metals decline during a strong inflationary period in 2022, wherein most were expecting it to rally alongside inflation. We have seen metals rally alongside the US Dollar, when most were expecting it to move in the opposite direction to the dollar. And, we have seen rallies surprise many market participants due to a “lack of clear catalyst.”
Well, anyone that has followed my work through the years should not be surprised. I have attempted time and again to outline the many fallacies propagated throughout the metals market, while also outlining the most accurate manner in which you should track the metals. To this end, those that have followed along through the years recognize the accuracy of our work.
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Sunday, September 08, 2024
Precious Metals Shine in August: Gold and Silver Surge Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Submissions
As the summer winds down, investors are keeping a close eye on the precious metals market. August proved to be a stellar month for both gold and silver, with gold prices rising a solid 3.5% and silver not far behind at 3.2%.
But what does the future hold? Well, according to Bank of America, the outlook is positively golden. In a recent note to clients, the bank stated, “We believe gold can hit $3,000/oz over the next 12-18 months…”. That’s a nice 20% move up from here. If silver holds its 3x typical ratio, that’s $50 silver, which we wrote on two weeks back.
Speaking of Bank of America, strategists have a bold prediction for investors: commodities are the way to go for the rest of the 2020s. In a recent note, they argue that a “commodity bull is just starting” due to a structural rise in inflation. “Commodities are a better bet than bonds for the rest of the 2020s.”
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Sunday, September 08, 2024
Gold’s Demand Comeback / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
This gold bull’s latest upleg has proven mighty, surging to many new nominal record highs. Amazingly gold’s massive gains have accrued despite no demand from one of its primary drivers. That’s differential gold-ETF-share buying by American stock investors. Enthralled by the AI stock bubble, those guys have been missing-in-action. When they finally return, gold’s demand comeback will supercharge its gains.
The great majority of gold’s price trends have long been driven by speculators’ gold-futures trading and/or investors’ gold-ETF-share trading. I’ve analyzed this extensively in recent decades, discussing the latest trends of both primary drivers in countless essays and subscription newsletters. Understanding what both groups of gold-dominating traders are doing is essential for profitably gaming gold’s upleg-correction cycles.
Born in early October 2023, today’s gold upleg has blasted up 38.7% at best over 10.8 months now! In early December, gold achieved its first nominal record close in 3.3 years. Since then 28 more records have been written into the books, an incredible run by any standards! Gold’s upleg is now on the verge of powering up 40%+ into monster status. Remarkably this has happened with one hand tied behind its back.
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Sunday, September 08, 2024
Gold’s Quick Reversal and Copper’s Major Indications / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Copper is definitely the most important industrial metal out there.
Freeport-McMoRan Reflects Market Trends
In the entire commodity sector, only crude oil is more widely used. And given the increasing importance of all-things-electronic, copper is unlikely to be forgotten anytime soon. This doesn’t mean that the only way in which its price can move is up (far from it), but it does indicate that this market is likely linked to multiple other markets – also to gold price.
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Friday, September 06, 2024
Crude Oil’s Sign for Gold Investors / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
So, the GDXJ plunged about 5% yesterday, and it refused to get back up, even though gold price did.
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