Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, April 03, 2015

How I Disproved Efficient Market Theory by Being a DJ / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: John_Mauldin

Yes, DJing is a hobby of mine. I’ve been doing it for about seven years, picking it up late in life. Call it midlife crisis number one.

I have had a pretty fun DJ career, all things considered. I’ve played in a couple of really famous clubs, and I’ve done all kinds of private parties—parties where people have gone nuts. I post my mixes online for people to enjoy. I’ve spent way more money than I’ve earned (especially on music—I pay for all my tracks). But it’s been worth it.

Thursday, April 02, 2015

China’s Stock Market Mania; How High can Red-chips Fly? / Stock-Markets / China Stocks

By: Gary_Dorsch

Recognized as the world’s single biggest attraction for high rollers at the gambling tables, Macau is the only location in the People’s Republic of China where betting on the Roll of the dice is legal. Macau is a just short ferry ride from Hong Kong, through which many mainlanders travel to get to the casinos. As such, the former Portuguese colony saw its annual casino and entertainment revenues soar to a combined $44-billion in 2014; or 7-times that of the Las Vegas Strip. For Macau, the boom times began in 2010 when casino revenues increased +58% and was followed by a +42% gain in 2011.

Thursday, April 02, 2015

Will Stocks Just Correct or Collapse in 2015? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The question on everybody's mind for 2015 is when will the stock market start to correct in value and will it turn into a 50+% collapse?

Over the last 15 years investors has been through a lot in terms of market volatility. From the 2000 tech bubble bear market and the 2008 financial crisis bear market investors are far from having their investment psyche scars healing and is for good reason. Many sustained 50+% loss in their portfolio value more than once and are not willing to do it for a third time.

Thursday, April 02, 2015

Stock Market Short-Term Uncertainty As Investors Await Quarterly Earnings Releases / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Financial Market Extremes: Expect Consequences / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

WHAT EXTREMES?

The S&P 500 Index has tripled in 6 years, is overbought, and at an all-time high.  See graph showing 7 year cycle highs and overbought indicators.

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Stock Market Sell signals in Place / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX is now on a confirmed sell signal by the fact that it has crossed beneath its 50-day Moving Average, as anticipated.

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

VIX shorts scream bloody murder as stops are run, ETF markets halted / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

ZeroHedge reports that all S&P Sector ETs and VIX ETFs are halted.

One of the most crowded trades today are the VIX shorts. One way to buy VIX shares en masse is to run all the stops on the shorts, effectively making these shares available for sale. There is no control of the price at which these shares are sold when the algos are turned loose, causing massive losses among those shorts and an opportunity for some large player to load up (long) on these shares. This may not be allowed if the regulators are on the ball, as the transactions may be cancelled. But the regulators may have a hard time trying to figure out what to do, since the computer outage occurred on such a large range of ETFs.

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

SPX Losing Supports / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX appears to be challenging the hourly mid-Cycle support at 2077.73 in the Premarket this morning.

ZeroHedge writes, “Following yesterday's proof-positive that "everything is awesome," today (and overnight) we find, everything is not so awesome. Following the unleashing of The Warsh on CNBC, markets are starting to turmoil. Crude has erased all its late-day ramp and then some dropping back to a low $47 handle. German Bund yields just hit a new record low (2Y at -25.7bps!). US equity markets have erased all of yesterday's post-open gains, and US Treasury yields are dumping as the Euro surges...”

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Stock Markets Toddling Towards the Non-Farm Payrolls Boogie Woogie / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jesse

Another glorious day in the Pax Americana dominated by grift, spin, weak economic results, and 'technical trade.'

In case you were wondering who might benefit from higher short term interest rates, the first chart below is an interest rate sensitivity study from JP Morgan. It is not certainly a complete picture, but it is indicative of their positioning perhaps.

Monday, March 30, 2015

SPX Reaches 61.8% Retracement / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX reached a high of 2088.25, just 9 ticks beneath the 61.8% retracement level and 65 ticks from the point at which Wave v equals Wave I (2088.80). It appears to be about to cross beneath Intermediate-term support/resistance at 2085.85. The likelihood of the retracement being complete is very high. No buy signal was given, so the only thing I might add is to add to any short positions at this time. This retracement was stronger than expected, but considering the end of the quarter is almost here, it makes sense that this rally could be engineered for large investors to take profits at the expense of retail investors.

Monday, March 30, 2015

Do What the Stock Market Bears Do... Not What They Say / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Investment_U

Alexander Green writes: Here’s a thought experiment for you.

Imagine you’re a business owner who is attending an investment conference. A smart, articulate and extremely bearish stock market analyst takes the podium and warns of impending economic doom.

He marshals an impressive array of scary facts. He points to past predictions that have come to pass. And he claims the economy and stock market will soon collapse.

Monday, March 30, 2015

Stock Market Positive Expectations As Investors Bet On Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Monday, March 30, 2015

Stock Market Short-term Downtrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market

Intermediate trend -Is the 7-yr cycle sketching an intermediate top?

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which ultimately indicate the course of longer market trends.

Sunday, March 29, 2015

Stock Market About Ready to Crash! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Last time, I talked about there being one more rally left and then the market would drop big. I see no change in that outlook (after looking over the Gann Cycles from last Monday, I have determined that the next top would be April 2). I also talked about the false breaks on the rising wedges of various indices.

In this article, we are going to go over some of those charts, including the daily MACD, Chaiken's Money Flow as well as silver. Yes, the reason I want to go over the weekly chart of silver, is to look at the some of the reasons why we are going to have huge swings of the markets over the next weeks, months and years. The problem is, we are dealing with deflation, but at the same time, countries are inflating their currencies like mad trying to head that threat off.

Sunday, March 29, 2015

Investing From Complexity to Chaos, From a Trickle to a Flood / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015

By: Money_Morning

Michael E. Lewitt writes: As a volatility trader, I loved seeing stocks drop 2% last week after having risen 3%. But as a credit trader and student of market behavior, I know all too well that this type of volatility is a forecast of stormy seas ahead.

Markets were disturbed last week by more evidence that the economy is weak, in spite of the fact that a steady stream of lousy economic news this year has done little to prevent stocks from reaching new highs. With first quarter GDP increasingly likely to come in at well below 1% – a number that certainly can't be blamed on the weather alone – investors are now starting to sweat.

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Stock Market Inflection Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started the week at SPX 2108. After an opening rally on Monday, the market hit SPX 2115 before 10am. Then after the first half hour of trading the market was essentially down for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 2.25%, the NDX/NAZ lost 2.75%, and the DJ World index lost 1.8%. On the economic front reports came in nearly all to the upside, for the first time in weeks/months. On the uptick: existing/new home sales, the CPI, FHFA housing prices, consumer sentiment, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: durable goods orders. Q4 GDP came in unchanged at +2.2%, and registered 2.4% growth for 2014, compared to growth of 2.2% in 2013 and 2.3% in 2012. Next week’s busy economic calendar will be highlighted by Personal income/spending, the PCE and non-farm Payrolls.

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Stock Market Investment Parachutes; Do You Have Yours? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Doug_Wakefield

"After twenty minutes, a bell rings and a commander jumps to the end of the line of us and takes the yellow cord from the packs on our back and hooks it up to a cable running the length of the plane. He quickly checks our helmet and reserve chute, then moves on to the next one in line. A few more minutes later and the side rear doors of the plane open, kicking up dust and leaves that were tracked into the plane. The breeze cools us temporarily, but then another commander looks down the line and raises his arms for the first ten guys to stand up....

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Stock Market Nothing From Nothing.... Headaches Still Out... Bears Still Not Getting It Done..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

Logic. The one thing you should never apply to the stock market. Play what you see, as I always say, not what logic dictates. We can say logically that all the headaches we know exist from froth to negative divergences should be killing this market. P/E's alone enough to get the job done. That doesn't mean it's what we will actually see. Logic says one thing. Price is saying another for now. It's why I always say don't let emotion make you force trades that aren't there. It's so tempting to short this market with aggression. Part of me wants to do that but price action just isn't occurring in a way that says it's safe to do just that. I only play what the market tells me, but right now the market isn't telling me anything at all worthwhile.

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Did the Stock Market Really Fail 3 Times? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Marty_Chenard

Three times it tried ... Yes, the NYA Index tried to move and stay above its 11108.39 resistance, but it failed to do so three times.

For normal investors, this is high danger sign that suggests moving cautiously is prudent.

Friday, March 27, 2015

Stocks Bear Market Conditions - Index Market Range Warning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Since the beginning of January 2014 stocks have shown signs of institutional selling. This can be seen in the small capitalization stocks index the Russell 2000. This group of stocks generally leads the S&P 500.

Most bull market tops in the S&P 500 shown below take 8-12 months to form before it starts to fall in value. So far the market has been under distribution selling meaning the large traders (institutions, hedge funds) is selling their positions to the average investor to be left holding the bag when things go south.