Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, April 08, 2015

Will Quantitative Easing Demolish Stock Market Indicators? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Harry_Dent

In late 2008, we knew we had a problem.

For years we had used the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) for predicting recessions before they occurred. This leading indicator had a much better track record than the more traditional ones.

But after QE started in November of that year, this indicator started to falter. The institute had predicted a recession in early 2011, but as QE dragged on, it just didn’t happen.

Wednesday, April 08, 2015

Stock Market Indices Give Back Early Gains to Close Negative / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market had a very strong start to the day, and a 3-wave move up that took the indices from 4350 Nasdaq 100 to nearly 4380 and the S&P 500 from 2081 to 2090. They pulled back midday to consolidate, but at the end of the day, without breaking out the formidable declining topsline, it became quite difficult to get through. They rolled over hard in the last hour, taking the Nasdaq from 4372 to 4344, and the S&P 500 from 2088 to 2076. They closed negative, giving back the entire gains of the day. The formidable overhead resistance at the 4380-84 zone Nasdaq 100 and near the 2090 area on the S&P 500 become too much for the stocks to overcome.

Wednesday, April 08, 2015

High Probability of a Strong Move Down in SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX finally fell off Intermediate-term support at 2085.70. It appears that it may close above the next support at 2080.73. However, whether it does or not, there is a very good probability of a strong move off that support and possibly through the 50-day Moving Average at 2073.77. This is an excellent place to be short, despite the lack of confirmation by VIX and the Hi-Lo. If this is the beginning of Wave [iii] of 3 this is the best positioning you may have.

Tuesday, April 07, 2015

What an Interest Rate Hike Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Investment_U

Matthew Carr writes: It’s inevitable. The Fed will raise rates at some point... probably within the next year.

At the moment, the money appears to be on a September/October move, instead of June (which many previously predicted). But the Fed’s June meeting is still 2 1/2 months away, and anything can happen.

Tuesday, April 07, 2015

The Stock Market Seventh Year’s / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Ed_Carlson

Stock Traders' Almanac reports that there have been six previous presidents that served a seventh year in office and that the average return for the Dow in those years averaged 13.00% with 1939 as the only year that ended in the red. A seventh year, of course, is also a pre-election year which is expected to be very bullish.

But markets don't stop just because the calendar year comes to an end. The Wilson peak in November 1919 started a decline which didn't end until Aug 1921 and produced a massive loss of 47%.

Tuesday, April 07, 2015

Stock Market Great Start to the Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices started the day out with a plunge to the downside on heavy negative futures, but they immediately reversed, taking the Nasdaq 100 from 4284 to 4361, a very strong 77-point rally,. They consolidated in the afternoon, and then rolled over into the close to take back a chunk of the gains. The S&P 500 jumped from a low of 2020 to 2087, 31 points, and backed off to 2080.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 117.61 at 17,880.85, reaching as high as 17.941.79. The S&P 500 was up 13.66 at 2080.62. The Nasdaq 100 was up 34.97 at 4350.98.

Tuesday, April 07, 2015

Bad Friday Report...Good Monday Results After Stock Market Scare Lower... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

The market was closed Friday, but most traders were paying close attention to the all-important Jobs Report. A very anticipated number, since it would show whether the economy was truly recovering or whether it's still going nowhere. The weather excuses going have gone away. The number was nothing short of terrible. Less than half the job creation than was expected. The futures went in to free fall. Bad news being treated as bad news. The Dow futures were down over 200 points, while the S&P 500 was down over 20 points. Nothing good for the bulls, and this was only Friday. What would happen on Monday? Down 300? Down more than that?

Tuesday, April 07, 2015

Formidable Array of Bearish Stock Market Chart Patterns / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has been challenging Intermediate-term resistance at 2085.96 this afternoon, but it appears that the high of 2086.99 made at 1:30 may have been it. Sunday was a strong double pivot day, but it took until early afternoon today to put it in. SPX has crisscrossed the 50-day Moving Average 8 times since early March. In the process, it has left a formidable array of bearish chart patterns. There are 13 market days until the expected low in this Cycle.

Monday, April 06, 2015

More Stock Market Scary Numbers / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: John_Rubino

The list of things hitting cyclical peaks gets longer every day. Besides the nominal amounts (debt, derivatives, money supply) that are now at all-time highs, some “as a share of GDP” indicators are starting to say similar, very scary things:

Corporate profits
In a world of competition for scarce resources, corporations face some natural limits on how much they can earn. For one thing, if business is too profitable it attracts a deluge of new entrants who drive down margins — and make stupid investments that screw things up for everyone — thus causing a broad-based recession that craters corporate profits.

Monday, April 06, 2015

Financial Repression, Central Banks, Credit Expansion, and the Importance of Being Impatient / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: John_Mauldin

We live in a time of unprecedented financial repression. As I have continued writing about this, I have become increasingly angry about the fact that central banks almost everywhere have decided to address the economic woes of the world by driving down the returns on the savings of those who can least afford it – retirees and pensioners.

This week’s Outside the Box, from my good friend Chris Whalen of Kroll Bond Rating Agency, goes farther and outlines how a low-interest-rate and massive QE environment is also destructive of other parts of the economy. Counterintuitively, the policies pursued by central banks are actually driving the deflationary environment rather than fighting it.

Monday, April 06, 2015

Today's Stock Market Rally Only Makes Things Worse / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The Primary Dealers are using this morning’s action as another selling opportunity. A lot of retail traders had layered in buy orders all the way down to 2050.00 which may have been filled on Friday. This is a ready market for the institutional players to sell into. That means once the 50-day

ZeroHedge reports, “We can't make this up. Following Friday's dismal payrolls, today's Fed Labor Market Conditions Index (the aggregate index of all Yellen's indicators) collapsed to its lowest in almost 3 years. That was just the news that stocks needed to complete the biggest opening rally of the year so far...

Monday, April 06, 2015

SPX Challenging Head & Shoulders Necklline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

Friday morning’s jobs report hit the SPX futures hard, down 20 points from Thursday’s close, challenging the Head & Shoulders neckline. As of this report, SPX Premarket is down 13.50 – 14.00 points with a ramp going into the open.

Monday, April 06, 2015

Is an Important Stock Market Top in Place? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market

Intermediate trend - Is the 7-yr cycle sketching an important top?

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which ultimately indicate the course of longer market trends.

Monday, April 06, 2015

One of the Longest Cyclical Bull Market In US Stocks May be Coming to an End / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jas_Jain

Some think that we are in a secular bull market that began in March 2009. I disagree because that would mean that the secular bear market only lasted for 9 years, Mar-00-Mar'09, when 17 years is more typical. Also, as of now the inflation adjusted S&P 500 has not made a new high reached in March 2000 (it is close, though). Warren Buffet seems to have been aware of this 17-year secular bull & bear cycles when he commented in 1999 that the next 17 years for the US stock market would not be the same as the last 17 years. Here is how I date the last two secular bull and bear markets in the current longwave cycle that began in the middle of 1949, including the probable outcome of the current secular bear market:

Sunday, April 05, 2015

Danger: Resist the Temptation to Chase Stock Prices / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Money_Morning

Michael E. Lewitt writes: The week running up to Easter ended with a punk jobs report that punctuated a first quarter filled with a stream of consistently bad economic data.

March nonfarm payrolls grew by only 126,000, far below consensus estimates of 225,000. Worse, 69,000 jobs were subtracted from January's and February's tallies. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.5% only because the job participation rate jumped back up to its lowest level since 1978.

Saturday, April 04, 2015

Looking at Trends in Non Farm Payrolls…Trade Smart, Trade Small / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Dan_Norcini

I forgot exactly where and when I read it, but I recall seeing that one of the things that the Fed looks at when considering the employment situation, is a rolling 12 month average of the number of jobs created or lost. This gives them more of a smoothed indicator and tends to filter out the effects from what can often be notoriously volatile month to month readings. We traders tend to do this oftentimes with our various technical indicators in an attempt to filter out “noise”.

Saturday, April 04, 2015

Stock Market Friday Payroll Surprise / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market opened the week at SPX 2061 after last week’s sharp decline from near record levels. After a rally to SPX 2089 on Monday the market nearly retested last week’s low at 2046, then bounced to end the holiday shortened week at 2067. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.3%, the NDX/NAZ lost 0.25%, and the DJ World gained 0.7%. On the economic front, reports continue to come in generally positive. On the uptick: personal income/spending, the PCE, pending homes sales, Case-Shiller, the Chicago PMI, Consumer confidence, factory orders, the MMIS, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit both improved. On the downtick: the ADP index, ISM manufacturing, construction spending, the monetary base, and monthly payrolls (which were reported Friday at +126k v 295k, the lowest monthly gain since December 2013, and a big disappointment). Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, ISM services, and Export/Import prices.

Saturday, April 04, 2015

US Stock Market on Shaky Ground! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Last article, I wrote that volume studies showed recent net outflows even as the market moved up during the recent OPEX /FOMC rally. I talked about the Rising Wedge, which when broken would cause a big drop. Well, we have some cracks showing up on the daily MACD indicator that is implying some tough days ahead for the US stock market.

Friday, April 03, 2015

Dow Theory Divergence Indicates Increased Stock Market Risk / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Christopher_Quigley

If ever you wanted an example of Dow Theory “Divergence” the Dow indices comparison chart below provides it.

Quick observation clearly shows that the Dow Transport Index (White Line) is collapsing while the Dow Industrials (Green Line) is holding its own. Divergence is an indication of increased market risk and means that the future trend is in doubt and “in play”.

Friday, April 03, 2015

How I Disproved Efficient Market Theory by Being a DJ / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: John_Mauldin

Yes, DJing is a hobby of mine. I’ve been doing it for about seven years, picking it up late in life. Call it midlife crisis number one.

I have had a pretty fun DJ career, all things considered. I’ve played in a couple of really famous clubs, and I’ve done all kinds of private parties—parties where people have gone nuts. I post my mixes online for people to enjoy. I’ve spent way more money than I’ve earned (especially on music—I pay for all my tracks). But it’s been worth it.