Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, March 24, 2015
Stock Market Grinding At The Old Highs.....Nasdaq Nasty Daily Negative Divergence... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
As the S&P 500 grinds its way to the old highs we're now seeing a true negative divergence on the Nasdaq daily chart. It doesn't have to play out, but it's there and needs to be respected as yet another headache that's hanging over this market, along with froth and terrible looking monthly-index charts. The market seems to be adding up problems yet it still hasn't broken. The power of the fed ever present in the minds of the traders out there. They seem to worry about nothing, no matter how bad the problem may be. The S&P 500 and Dow have the potential to flash negative divergences if they get up to their old highs.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 23, 2015
Tech Startups and Nigerian Bonds - We’re All Hedge Funds Now / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
Watching formerly risk-averse investors adapt to a negative interest rate world is almost as much fun as watching Europe try to keep Greece and Germany in the same financial family. In each case, success depends on all the parties becoming something they really don’t want to be.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 23, 2015
Why You Must Beware of Quicksilver Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
Shah Gilani writes: “Quicksilver Markets” is the provocative title of an Office of Financial Research (OFR) report published March 17.
The report’s author, Ted Berg, in his conclusion warns that “Quicksilver markets can turn from tranquil to turbulent in short order.”
He believes the stock market could crash – again.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 23, 2015
Is Stock Market Minor Top Taking Hold? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market
Intermediate trend - Is the 7-yr cycle sketching an intermediate top?
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which ultimately indicate the course of longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 23, 2015
The Psychology Behind Your Stock Market Pessimism / Stock-Markets / Trader Psychology
Alexander Green writes: Over the course of the last few columns - and during my recent talks at the Investment U Conference - I’ve laid out my case for viewing the future of the economy and the stock market optimistically.
Yet Editorial Director Andrew Snyder polled our readership and found that only 38% of you agree with me.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 23, 2015
What Stock Market Bears Don’t Understand / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Alexander Green writes: At the Investment U Conference in St. Petersburg, Florida, last week, I argued that “The Great Enrichment” has created a Golden Age for investors.
To briefly summarize my case, economic freedom - as measured by the Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom - is increasing worldwide. Interest rates are at historic lows. Inflation is negligible. Job creation is the strongest in 20 years. The U.S. economy is improving. The annual budget deficit is coming down. Energy prices have more than halved in the last eight months. Technological innovation is accelerating. The dollar just hit a 12-year high against the euro and an eight-year high against the yen. U.S. household net worth is near an all-time high. So are corporate profits. And so are profit margins.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 23, 2015
Today is a Stock Market Cycle Turn Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Good Morning!
My earlier forecast of a low on the 13th and a high on the 23rd seems to be prescient. This has been a rather shallow decline and a very sharp rally, but the SPX has managed to become overbought again without breaking new highs. This leaves the vast majority of investors in a very casual mood about the dangers of a decline
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 23, 2015
Greece and EU Running Out of Time as Bank Runs Intensify / Stock-Markets / Eurozone Debt Crisis
- EU and Greece running out of time as talks end “in disarray” – again
- Greece warns Merkel of ‘impossible’ debt
- Concerns Greece out of money by end of April
- Friday’s “agreement” in Brussels falls apart hours later as protagonists fail to agree on specifics
- Greece now insolvent – will run out of liquidity by end of April
- Greek banks on verge of collapse as runs continue – €1.5 billion emptied out of banks last week alone
- ‘Grexit’ could propel gold to over $2,000/oz
- Cyprus style bail-ins look increasingly possible
Monday, March 23, 2015
Stock Market Slightly Negative Expectations Following Last Week's Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Sunday, March 22, 2015
Wall Street Doesn't Want You to Do This / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015
Chris Mayer writes: I write a lot about the virtues of buying stocks and sitting on them...
Take my "coffee can portfolio," for example. It's a simple, but successful strategy in which you find the best stocks you can and let them sit for 10 years. By committing to these safe and steady businesses, you incur almost no costs and you keep your worst instincts from hurting you.
But how about sitting still for 80 years?
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 22, 2015
Strategy to Profit Before the Markets Head South / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Michael E. Lewitt writes: For the last six months, I have been warning that economic growth is faltering. In November of last year, I predicted that the U.S. economy would experience a "growth scare" in 2015.
This week, we learned that the Atlanta Fed is tracking first quarter GDP growth at a mere 0.3% and that the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) has significantly downgraded its growth forecast.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 22, 2015
FED Guidance Like Flying in Bermuda Triangle / Stock-Markets / US Federal Reserve Bank
Last week, I thought from what I was reading on my volume indicators, (showing that money was leaving the S&P 500) that the market would fall on the FOMC news Wednesday. WRONG! Here I am flying in the Bermuda Triangle!
A few weeks ago, I related how last year was so difficult trading the market for me. The normal 10,20,30, 40 week cycle lows are not acting like they used to. I had surmised that the normal 20 week (100 trading day 15-16%) low would not be the dominant low, but that it would likely come in April instead. March 11 proved to be the 100 trading day low and we fell less than 4% top to bottom! But, because of volume indicators like OBV, Money Flow and Chaiken Money Flow that are showing net money outflows (I'll elaborate on these more next week), I thought this time might be different. WRONG!
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 22, 2015
Stocks Bull Market Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The market started the week at SPX 2053. On Monday the market gapped up and hit SPX 2083. Then after two gap down openings the market pulled back to SPX 2061 by Wednesday, before the FOMC statement. After a strong Wednesday afternoon rally, the market gapped down on Thursday, but rose into a Friday high of SPX 2114. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.40%, the NDX/NAZ gained 3.25%, and the DJ World index gained 3.25%. On the economic front reports continue to come in slightly negative. On the uptick: industrial production, building permits, leading indicators, the WLEI and the monetary base. On the downtick: the NY/Philly FED, capacity utilization, the NAHB, housing starts, current account deficit, and weekly jobless claims. Next week we get updates on Q4 GDP, the CPI and more Housing reports.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 21, 2015
Stock Market Keeps It Up...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Last week there was tremendous anticipation coming in to this week about what Fed Yellen would say regarding interest rates. Wednesday of this week couldn't come soon enough, so folks could finally, once and for all, fully understand the short-term, if not longer-term, intentions of the Ms. Yellen. What words would she remove? What words would she add, and so on? The market fell some ahead of the report on Wednesday, and it was not doing well on Wednesday, until two o'clock in the afternoon when she came out and told everyone exactly what I thought she'd say. That she's putting off raising interest rates short term. She said that too many of the economic reports coming in just weren't solid enough to allow for a rate hike cycle of any kind to begin, even if it was a super slow one.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 21, 2015
We're All Hedge Funds Now! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
As negative interest rates spread from Switzerland, Japan and Germany to the rest of the developed world, people with money to invest face some life-defining choices.
Retirees who need to generate 6% to avoid dipping into principal can't get there with bank CDs. Pension funds that have promised an 8% return in order to meet obligations to future retirees can't get anywhere near that with government bonds. Same thing for insurance companies and money market funds, whose business models require positive returns with low risk.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 20, 2015
Why Stock Market Seasonality May Be Critical in 2015 / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
With its FOMC statement, the Fed provided the market with what it wanted to hear.
They removed the ‘patience’ phrase as expected, but replaced it with a similar assurance that there is no set timetable for rate hikes, that it will continue to be in no hurry. “The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 20, 2015
Stock Market VIX Extends its Master Cycle Low / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
VIX made a new Master Cycle low today, rather late in the Cycle. I originally indicated it had bottomed in February. The EW pattern was correct, but at a lower degree. This is one of the pitfalls of Elliott Wave analysis in a correction and Waves B and E are especially roguish.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 20, 2015
The New Order Emerges / Stock-Markets / New World Order
China and Russia have taken the lead in establishing the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), seen as a rival organisation to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, which are dominated by the United States with Europe and Japan. These banks do business at the behest of the old Bretton Woods[1] order. The AIIB will dance to China and Russia's tune instead.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 19, 2015
The Double-Edged Sword of a Strong U.S. Dollar / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
Until the latest pullback on Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index had been on a rip-and-tear for most of this year. Earlier this week the dollar hit a new multi-year high as concerns over Europe and China have fueled foreign interest in U.S. assets. The greenback's relentless strength is also a cause for concern among investors who fear that a stronger dollar will erode corporate profits this year. Since much of the bull market of the last few years was based on the bull market in corporate profits, this point is being taken seriously by Wall Street pros. It's also worth examining in this our latest installment.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 19, 2015
The Paper Money Titanic Sinks At Dawn! / Stock-Markets / Fiat Currency
What Titanic? The RMS Titanic, or any of the following:
- A titanic quantity of derivatives – say 1,000 Trillion dollars. A derivative crash was at the center of the 2008 market meltdown. It could happen again since there is now more debt, leverage, and risk than in 2008.