Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Stocks Bull Continues.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
We can try to pull this apart from many different angles, but the reality is the bull market continues, because we have Fed Bernanke, who will do whatever it takes to float the markets. With interest rates low, there's no other place to really put your dollars. Keep it simple. This doesn't mean that at any time we can't go into a prolonged period of going nowhere. The market is showing continued solid action on weakness, and will likely do this type of behavior for a long time to come. If we pulled back 5%, it would feel like death. But in truth, it would do little to the bull market technicals.
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Monday, March 26, 2012
Financial Markets Week Ahead Trading Video / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Here is my video analysis on what to expect this week in silver, gold, oil and the SP500.
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Monday, March 26, 2012
Stock Market Rally Another Pause or Something More? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate uptrend is still intact, but a short-term top is forming.
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Sunday, March 25, 2012
Was it really going to work, Operation Twist / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
The last two QE programs boosted stocks and bonds, the third QE program known as operation Twist (they buying of long dated bonds) is supposed to keep stocks high and long dated bond yields down. It seems the Fed Operation Twist may be running out of wind, the 10yr Treasury yield jumped up a 0.5% after higher inflation and better economic numbers in the last few weeks. Maybe it was a silly idea after all.
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Saturday, March 24, 2012
Stock Market Uptrend Likely to Resume Next Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
After five weeks of uninterupted gains in the SPX the market pulled back this week and ended with the SPX/DOW -0.85%. The NDX has risen for 12 consecutive weeks, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.50% this week. Foreign market fared much worse. Asian markets lost 1.0%, European market were 2.6% lower, and the DJ World index was down 1.1%. On the economic front positive reports edged out negatives 5 : 4. On the downtick: the NAHB housing index, housing starts, new home sales and the FHFA housing price index. On the uptick: building permits, existing homes sales, leading indicators, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims declined. While our leading indicators suggest housing has entered a new bull market, trailing indicators are still lagging.
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Saturday, March 24, 2012
The Fed, Gold, Stock Market and the Retail Investor Mindset / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
The recent rally has been breathtaking, however the majority of investors have missed out on a large portion of these gains as significant levels of cash have been either moved to bond funds or taken out of equity markets consistently during this rally. Let’s face it, financial markets around the world are not what they once were.
U.S. equity markets in particular are manipulated by high frequency trading which is wreaking havoc in the marketplace in terms of potential short term volatility expansions and “flash crashes” that can be isolated to one underlying stock.
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Saturday, March 24, 2012
Stock Market Investor Capital Safety: Is There Such a Thing as "TOO Safe" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
We all know that the stock market has been rising for 3 years. Many economic measures -- unemployment, consumer spending and confidence, etc. -- also show strong improvement. Yet is that a good reason to stay bullish on stocks?
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Saturday, March 24, 2012
Stock Market Seasonal Trend, Here We Go Again Already? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
What is it about the economic recovery so far that allows good news to last for only six months at a time before fears rise again and the economy needs another adrenaline fix from the Fed? The pattern has been clearly reflected in the stock market, which saw its historical pattern of making its gains in the winter months and suffering corrections in the summer months even more pronounced in 2010 and 2011.
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Friday, March 23, 2012
When Central Banks Fail / Stock-Markets / Central Banks
Thursday, March 22, 2012
When Will the Stock Market Freight Train Rally Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
When will this rally top, when will there be sign of distribution. The truth is the SP500 has been a freight training to higher highs. Yet with the Fed operation Twist soon to end in the coming months one must feel we are very close to a mighty peak of this rally.
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Thursday, March 22, 2012
Stock Market Consolidating... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
There's nothing wrong with the market consolidating. The consolidating would be even more beneficial if it did this for another month. However, it's unlikely that it will. As we've seen, this market has been tough to sell short-term. There are very "itchy" buyers, once the market does any type of small pullback. People want to get into the market that has been in before, and people want in the market that has missed it altogether. Some people just have a real inclination to be in the market as interest rates are simply too low for anyone to do anything else with their dollars. Why fight the tape is what they're thinking. While it seems unlikely from a fundamental point of view, the market understands something we don't for the time being. The energy of the stock market is a lot smarter than our collective intelligence. Let the market do the talking.
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Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Examining the Top S&P Components / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
I have embarked on a project to constantly view and analyze the major sectors of the S&P in an effort to get a grasp of where the potential weakness is showing up within the SPX itself.
I've looked at the major SPDR ETFs in 9 major sectors (leaving out telecom, which does not show me much), and examined the top 10 components of those ETFs.
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Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Full Steam Ahead for China Railroad Stocks / Stock-Markets / China Stocks
China's economic engines of growth have begun to accelerate again, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the chart below. After approvals for new railroad projects spiked to a five-year high in the third quarter of 2010, the number of new plans slowed, then completely halted throughout 2011, decreasing 89 percent by value, says J.P. Morgan.
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Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Dow Stock Index Forecast Rise to 260,000 by 2032 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Secular tops in US stocks were 2000, 1968 and 1937 – 3 solar cycles apart (roughly 33 years). Secular nominal bottoms in stocks were 2009 (expected), 1976, 1944 and 1913 – 3 solar cycles apart (roughly 33 years). Secular tops in commodities were 1980, 1948 and 1918 – 3 solar cycles apart (roughly 33 years). Secular bottoms in commodities were 2000, 1968, 1938 and 1906 – 3 solar cycles apart (roughly 33 years). All these tops and bottoms fell very close to solar peaks and minima.
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Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Dow Stock Market Index Ready to Form a Major Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Marc Horn writes: The DJIA by breaking last Summer’s highs, as most other indices, have confirmed that we are in wave 5.The current MAP wave count for the DJIA is H-2 of 4H5 of D3 of W5 of M-2.
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Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Stock Market Investors Waiting.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
It seems to me, based on the volume trends I'm seeing, that the majority of folks are waiting on a big pullback to occur first before getting back into the market. Or, they may be waiting to get into the market for the first time, because they've missed the entire rally off the lows. It's that waiting attitude, and low bull-bear spread, that gives me real hope that the market will hang in there a bit longer than most expect, or the pullback won't be nearly as hard, or severe, as the masses think. But they're still missing the rally as they will wait too long once the selling begins, thinking it will get worse.
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Monday, March 19, 2012
India Investing: How to Play the Pullback / Stock-Markets / India
India is a global business hub that consistently ranks as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. From its dense, over-crowded metropolitan centers to its dirt-road villages and sparsely populated outreaches, India is a hotbed of diversity, culture and innovation.
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Monday, March 19, 2012
Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and the Stock Market Fear Index Trend Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
This week may provide some trading opportunities for us if all goes well now that most traders are investors are all giddy about stocks again. Last week we saw money move out of bonds and into stocks and the bullishness vibe in the air reminds of many market peaks just before a 5%+ correction in stocks.
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Monday, March 19, 2012
Forex, Metals and Stock Market Outlook for the Week Ahead / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
The markets this week saw lots of movement with rallies in the dollar, equities went to new highs and metals drifted lower throughout last week. With all the optimism in the global economic outlook let’s have a look at what the charts are saying and what next week may hold concerning these markets.
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Monday, March 19, 2012
Stock Market New Price Target Almost Reached, Gold Continuing Correction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate uptrend is still intact, but a short-term top is forming.
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