Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, June 19, 2011
U.S. Seeks to Curtail OTC Highly Leveraged Trading in Paper Commodities and Currencies / Stock-Markets / Market Regulation
As part of the reform of derivatives, Dodd-Frank is seeking to prohibit Over the Counter (meaning non-exchange) trading of commodities at leverage of greater than 10:1.
The off exchange traders, particularly those trading in currencies, had expanded their markets into various commodities, offering non-product backed paper trading at very high rates of leverage.
Sunday, June 19, 2011
Stock Market Dow Theory Update / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
According to Dow theory, once the primary trend is established, that trend must be considered intact until it is "authoritatively" reversed, which requires a joint move by the Industrials and the Transports back above/below their previous secondary high/low points. On March 9, 2009 the bear market phase I low was made. From that low point, the rally separating phase I from phase II began and on July 23, 2009 the bullish primary trend, in accordance to classical Dow theory and in association with the rally separating phase I from phase II, was confirmed. But, based on the longer-term work, this is expected to change and when it does, provided that the normal bull and bear market relationships still mean anything, the phase II decline will begin.
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Sunday, June 19, 2011
European Stock Market Long-term Analysis / Stock-Markets / European Stock Markets
I originally wanted to wait till we had a potential low in place, but I feel that this is important enough to now put down in writing so readers may have some ideas going forward.
I want to stress I am not a big fan of these large macro wave counts, at WPT we specialize on shorter term time frames from days to weeks, using wave counts of many year magnitude is in the authors opion not really that beneficial, as being wrong for 2-3 years is not really going to help your account balance.
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Sunday, June 19, 2011
Stock and Commodity Market Opportunities Galore / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Last week I left readers with this chart, and whilst we have witnessed some choppy price action, we still have yet to confirm a potential low in place, although over the past 2 weeks, we did see 2 attempts for a low to be in place, and we were looking at buying the pullback, there is no need to catch a falling knife or chainsaw, we waited for the market to show us some evidence 1st and confirm a potential low and look to buy a pullback, as its low risk, but on both occasions it slipped through our key support areas, so we once again flipped and got short. We don't have any issues with flipping our bias if price action suggests it.
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Saturday, June 18, 2011
Stock Market Has Possibly Bottomed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
A volatile week in the US which ended about where it started: SPX/DOW +0.2%. On the economic front positive reports edged out negative ones 9:8. On the positive side: the PPI/CPI remained positive, along with business inventories and industrial production. Improving were housing starts, building permits, weekly jobless claims, leading indicators and the monetary base. On the negative side: capacity utilization, the NAHB housing index, consumer sentiment and the WLEI all turned lower.
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Saturday, June 18, 2011
Still Just A Stock Market Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The best thing to do is not be emotional. To write this update from a perspective that has no interference from what seems to be a bear market in the making. It may not be a bear at all, but let's explore what's going on here and what seems to be trying to set up. Let's start with facts. Simple facts. We are seeing unemployment increase. We are seeing unemployment claims rise. We are seeing wages fall because no one has power as a worker to demand more. Employers can fire anyone and find someone in the snap of a finger to replace that worker who wants more. Employees are working out of fear, and thus, accepting whatever comes, even if it means taking on more work for less wages. Just the reality of the world these days. Again, simple truths about what's taking place.
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Saturday, June 18, 2011
Stock Market Investors Suffering From the Chihuahua Syndrome / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
You may not have heard of this particular syndrome before but it comes from my pet Chihuahua dog, Chico. Whenever he gets scared during a thunderstorm, he slinks off to sit under my bed. I suppose the mattresses and bed covering overhead comfort him. He is actually a pretty good forecaster of nasty weather because he will anticipate the arrival of a storm by his habitual exhibition. When the first clap of thunder rattles the air, Chico can be found under the bed and shaking like a leaf.
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Saturday, June 18, 2011
Why It’s Too Soon To Buy the Stock Market Dip! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
After six straight down weeks the S&P 500 is down only 6% from its April peak.
That’s not near enough to factor all the negatives into stock prices. Those negatives include the rapidly slowing U.S. economy, sharply rising global inflation, plunging global markets as central banks raise interest rates to ward off inflation, the cuts in government spending yet to hit the U.S. economy as Washington and individual states tackle their record budget deficits, and the end of the Fed’s QE2 stimulus program.
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Stock Market Black Swan Event 40% Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Yesterday on CNBC, Mark Spitznagel, chief investment officer for fund manager Universa Investments L.P., made a scary prediction. He warned that the S&P 500 could lose 40% of its value in the next couple of years.
He went on to point out several facts and figures that led to this prediction. He specifically said, "there is a 20% chance of a well-over 40% correction in the S&P 500 within the next few years."
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Saturday, June 18, 2011
Investor Profit and Protection, Major Market Moves During QE3 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
“In perhaps the best evidence of silver manipulation to date, the CFTC’s Bank Participation Report for June shows that from May 4th to June 7th, the silver short position held by 4 large US banks increased from 20,613 to 22,628 short contracts. This means that the 4 largest US banks increased their short silver position from 103,065,000 ounces when silver was trading near $50 in early May, to 113,140,000 on June 7th. Basically, The Morgue and HSBS ADDED 10 MILLION OUNCES OF SILVER TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS WHILE SILVER DECLINED 36% IN PRICE! Lets look at this another way. COMEX silver inventories are down 28.7 million ounces. This means that in 1 months time, The Morgue and HSBS have added NEW short positions equal to 1/3 of the remaining physical silver supply on the COMEX. This means that these 4 US banks are currently short roughly 4x the amount of silver remaining on the COMEX.
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Friday, June 17, 2011
Trading Stock Market Fear VXO / Stock-Markets / Volatility
The stock markets’ sharp June selloff is waking traders from their complacent slumber. The risk of a significant selloff, long ignored, has surged back to the forefront of market psychology. These pullbacks and corrections are healthy and necessary within ongoing bull markets, but they don’t end until fear grows great enough to rebalance sentiment. And today, stock fear is still too low for a bottoming.
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Friday, June 17, 2011
U.S. Dollar’s Close Friday Important for Stocks and Commodities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Investors are faced with numerous concerns, including:
- Weakening economic data: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index fell to minus 7.7, the lowest since July 2009, from 3.9 the prior month.
- U.S. debt ceiling: On Tuesday Ben Bernanke said, “Failing to raise the debt ceiling in a timely way would be self-defeating if the objective is to chart a course toward a better fiscal situation for our nation.”
- Greece won’t go away: It is obvious, based on the market’s recent reaction, the problems in Greece are serious and they have not been addressed.
- QE2 ending: The Fed’s second quantitative easing program (QE2) is set to formally end this month. As we discussed in this audio interview on Seeking Alpha, the Fed does not yet have the necessary political cover to begin talking about QE3.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Give Economic Catastrophes a Chance to Wipe Out Bad Investments / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
More Disasters, Please!
Whoa. Tuesday’s gains had disappeared before traders’ coffee had gone cold, yesterday morning. The Dow ended the day down 173 points…signaling what looks like a 7th straight week of losses. Stay tuned.
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Friday, June 17, 2011
Stocks are Weak, Especially the EuroStoxx50 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The rally in equity markets globally looks at risk now as traders start to re-assess the health of the global economy. And no matter where one looks, all the major economies are experiencing their own unique and sometimes shared difficulties.
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Friday, June 17, 2011
Stock Market Sentiment Surveys Or Margin Debt Who Is Smarter? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The one and only data point that has given the bears pause is the extremely bearish sentiment readings. As an example the AAII survey recorded its highest bullish view on December 21, 2010 at 63.3% bullish to 16.4% bearish whereas on June 15, 2011 those readings were 29.0% bullish to 42.8% bearish.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Oil Slick and Euro Debt Catastrophe / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Good golly what a mess!
I hate to say I told you so but... Oh wait, no, I'm actually loving this... I TOLD YOU SO! Look at July 2008 and look at June 2011. Now, look at July 2008 and look at June 2011. Now, look at where oil USUALLY trades. Is it over $100 or under $80? You don't want to go back further because then the case could be made for under $60.
Thursday, June 16, 2011
European Debt Contagion Impact on Domestic Banks and Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The price action in U.S. financial markets on Wednesday was the culmination of fear and disease. Fear was represented by a breakout in the Volatility Index (VIX) and the disease was related to the sovereign debt crisis unfolding in the Eurozone. The violent reaction by the Greek citizenry to proposed austerity measures paired with grumblings coming from multiple Eurozone nations ignited fear among traders and investors alike.
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Thursday, June 16, 2011
Stock Market Bear is Back and This Time it will be Much Worse / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Don't let the perma bulls fool you, this is not a normal correction, and it has nothing to do with Greece or Spain. This is the beginnings of the next leg down in the secular bear market and the start of the next economic recession/depression. And this time it's going to be much much worse than it was in `08.
For months now I've been warning investors to get out of the general stock market. I was confident that once the dollar put in its three year cycle low the next deflationary period would begin and stocks would enter the third leg down in the secular bear market.
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Thursday, June 16, 2011
Gold, Commodities, Stocks and Dollar, What's Coming Next! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Every act you have ever performed since the day you were born was performed because you wanted something. ~ Andrew Carnegie
The media is asking a series of ignorant and self-serving questions that will only confuse the investor and I would like to shed some light on this. Yesterday the stock market rallied and the press immediately anointed the event as the precise moment when things started to get better. They're of course wrong.
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Thursday, June 16, 2011
Stock Market Close To Breaking Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Yesterday was promising for the bulls. We had a gap up near key support. Always good to see a gap up when you're so close to breaking down below key support. The gap up ran quite a ways higher before pulling back so late in the day. Overall, a good day for the bulls. Gave them some real hope that maybe things wouldn't get so bad. That maybe losing the 200-day exponential moving average wasn't a guarantee after all.