Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, May 04, 2015
This Financial “Seismograph” Signals A Monetary Earthquake / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
Stock markets in the U.S. are trading approximately 2% from their all-time highs, the German DAX has slightly retraced from its all-time highs, the Nikkei index in Japan has almost surpassed its 2000 highs in recent days, the Shanghai stock index used to be a laggard but is making up at an incredible pace (currently trading at 7-year highs). Indeed, it feels like nothing can go wrong.
We are not yet in bubble territory, and the market is not setting up for an implosion as it did in December 1999 or July 2008. However, we are in the midst of a monetary bubble, driven by an explosion of the monetary base and an implosion of interest rates. Paper assets, as opposed to hard assets, have been pumped up by the liquidity that is being funneled into the economic system and the markets.
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Sunday, May 03, 2015
Stocks, Gold and Oil Markets Chopsville / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
SPX
Last week we were looking for new highs on the SPX, the prior declines have all been corrective move so as long as that continues I don't see much in the way of any evidence to support a bearish reversal. Don't get me wrong I am now looking for a reversal but the market appears to be clinging on for dear life as it chops higher. This back and forth choppy price action is more and more supporting the ending diagonal idea that we have been tracking since the start of the New Year. It would need a strong advance above 2070SPX to cast doubt on the idea.
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Sunday, May 03, 2015
Stock Market Big Sell-Off Looming! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Last time I wrote, I was expecting the stock market to fill the gap left on the SPX near 2081-82 by Friday last week. That was accomplished on Thursday when the SPX fell to 2077. What I saw on my indicators showed more a lack of buying than true selling and it also presented a looming Head and Shoulders Pattern Top. We went long on the dip and sold into strength on Friday. In fact, we started to short late in the day as the strength of the move was not enough to offset the damage done on the charts. We plan on completing our short selling Monday on the open.
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Saturday, May 02, 2015
Stock Market Correction Time? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Another month completed and the choppy activity continues. The market started the week at SPX 2118, gapped up on Monday and hit an all time high of 2126. Then it went into its recent choppy activity again until Thursday: 2095-2116-2097-2114-2091-2103-2079. Then gapped up hitting SPX 2108 on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.35%, the NDX/NAZ lost 1.50%, and the DJ World lost 0.90%. On the economic front reports came in just as mixed. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, personal spending, PCE prices, the Chicago PMI, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: consumer confidence, Q1 GDP, pending home sales, personal income, construction spending and the monetary base. Next week is highlighted by the monthly Payrolls report and ISM services.
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Saturday, May 02, 2015
New Month Begins With Spectacular Stock Market Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The stock market indices had a spectacular rally and closed at the highs for the day going away. They opened with big gaps up, went into consolidation during the morning session, came on again late morning, rallied strongly, pulled back in the last hour, only to come on again in the last 20-30 minutes, and close with a bang.
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Saturday, May 02, 2015
Stock Market Giving A Pass? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
There really is no other way to explain it. Earnings have been terrible this quarter. To go along with that theme almost all of the economic reports from retail sales to the ISM Manufacturing Report have been poor at best. So why isn't the market crashing out is the question many are asking. Before today we saw a recent sell off, which hit the Nasdaq to the tune of 199 points. That's good selling. 4%. Today we saw the market shoot back up off an oversold sixty-minute event from that selling. While some buying should have been expected based on oversold, the strong move higher caught many off guard.
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Friday, May 01, 2015
Stock Market 2015 Top May be in Cyclical Harmony with 1929 Peak / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Do you sometimes turn a question over and over in your mind…and suddenly the answer comes to you? That was my experience as I kept asking the question…”Why did the market top come on April 27?”
I had done shorter-term calculations and arrived at the 7.525 year (90.3 months + 7 days) calculation from the peak in 2007. By the way, the 2007 high was also 7.525 years from the March 23, 2000 market peak.
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Friday, May 01, 2015
Stock Market Kondratieff Waves and the Greater Depression 2013- 2020 update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
In February 2012 I wrote an essay on Kondratieff waves (K waves). At that time based on the teaching of Nikolai Kondratieff it appeared that the world economy was in the middle of a Kondratiev winter or “greater recession”. (See chart below).
The K wave is a 60 year cycle ( a year or so) with internal phases that are sometimes characterized as seasons: spring, summer, autumn and winter:
Friday, May 01, 2015
Stock Market Broadening Tops Hidden in Plain View / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Sometimes the traditional trendline analysis hides the unusual but valid crash formations. I must admit that I was slow in picking this up and only “saw” the formation after I had erased some of the other analysis.
What came out at me was the Megaphone formation that I had expected to be there at this juncture, but couldn’t see it. The Orthodox Broadening Top confirms the larger Broadening Wedge that has been there so long that you can easily miss it. In fact, I was beginning to wonder about its validity.
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Thursday, April 30, 2015
Why Stock Market Investors Are Ruining America / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015
Alexander Green writes: Economic inequality - the fact that a small percentage of Americans have so much more than the rest of us - has gotten a lot of press in recent months.
You are a big part of the problem.
I say that because this column is written by and for investors. Nothing exacerbates economic inequality like successful investing.
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Thursday, April 30, 2015
Stock Market Sell Signal is Getting Stronger / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
SPX bounced off the 50-day Moving Average early today. Overhead resistance is now at 2100.54. Once the retest fails, the 50-day is also likely to fail. This will confirm the sell signal in the SPX. The signal is an aggressive sell here and a confirmed sell beneath 2090.72.
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Thursday, April 30, 2015
Is the Fed about to Ignite the Stock Market Sell in May and Go Away Trade? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
First and foremost most fed meetings are positive for the stock market. The fed usually gives the market what it wants and the markets keep going up and away. The last fed meeting stocks rallied after the fed successfully jaw boned the dollar into submission. Since then stocks have rallied and are encountering major resistance at the top end of their trading ranges.
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Thursday, April 30, 2015
GDP...Germany... Corporate Earnings....Froth Again...And The Fed....... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
A busy day. Lots and lots of bad news hit the market since last night. There were some really poor earnings reports from the likes of Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN), Panera Bread Company (PNRA), Stratasys Ltd. (SSYS), Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD), Twitter, Inc. (TWTR), United States Steel Corp. (X) to name just a few. I mean some major league slaughters here. All saying business is bad and getting worse. Like I said, there were many, many more than just those. Enough bad reports from everywhere, it seemed, to kill the market.
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Wednesday, April 29, 2015
The European Stock Markets Trend Is Up. We're In. Are You? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Brian Hunt and Ben Morris write: If you're on the sidelines, don't wait any longer...
One of the strongest uptrends in the world is gaining ground... And it's making some investors lots of money. If you're following DailyWealth, you should be one of them.
We're talking about the uptrend in European stocks...
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Wednesday, April 29, 2015
What's going on with The Dow Jones Transportation Index? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The best way we can describe the Dow Jones Transportation Index is that it is in a short term up trend, but in the lower half of a six month trading range.
The Transportation Index has been in a trading range since the end of last October (see the boxed in area). The Index is not very strong at this time, so it is in a higher-risk condition.
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Wednesday, April 29, 2015
The Stock Market and FED Day: What Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Last time I wrote that I believed that the market would fall into my next cycle projection low due on the FOMC meeting announcement day, April 29. It came early today and forced us to cover our short positions and go long (this market will keep you on your toes for sure). More than half the battle trading the market is recognizing when you are wrong.
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Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Stocks, Bonds and Real Estate Financial Hurricanes Headed Our Way - No Where to Hide! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
There are three financial hurricanes hurtling towards our country and most people are oblivious to the coming catastrophe. The time to prepare is now, not when the hurricane warnings are issued.
Hussman makes his usual solid case that stocks and bonds are as overvalued as they have ever been in the history of investing. People are under the false impression that bonds are always a safe investment. The fact that you are already getting a negative real return on bonds doesn’t seem to compute with math challenged Americans. Over the next ten years you will absolutely lose money in bonds.
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Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Stock Market Delayed Decline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The recent forecast for a high on April 15 looked good as the Dow stalled out the next day and then dropped almost 280 points on April 17. But according to the forecast for the next low the “tax-day top” was supposed to precede a decline into late last week. Instead, the market has rallied from the low on April 17.
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Tuesday, April 28, 2015
China’s Whacky Stock Market: How Long Can They Keep This Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
On April 16, the Shanghai Composite stock index rose 4.4% and Hong Kong’s market went up 7.9%.The next day, China’s exports got reported down 15% year-over-year… while the stock index rose another 2.9%, crossing 4,300. The news hasn’t changed, but now it’s over 4,500!
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Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Stock Market Valuations - Maybe I am Crazy / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
Relative vs. Absolute Value
As I watch valuations on stocks soar higher and higher into the stratosphere, I keep asking "where is the value?"
The problem for most is confusing "relative" value vs. absolute value. Stocks may be "cheap vs. bonds" but what does that matter if bonds are ridiculously overpriced?
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