Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

SPX Rally Nearing Completion. USB Maybe Finished / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

I have been reviewing the Cycle Model and have a few observations to pass on. There is little doubt why Ben Bernanke went to visit Abe and Kuroda last weekend. The June 27 Master Cycle low is the last of its kind until October 4, 2016. It appears that this is the last chance they have of igniting a rally in order to preserve the uptrend.

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Stock Market Rally May be Complete / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has now completed a 60-hour rally from the 1991.68 low after a 13-hour decline from the 2113.32 high. It appears to be complete.

Monday, July 11, 2016

SPX testing the Cycle Top Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The SPX Premarket is challenging the 2-hour Cycle Top at 2136.81 this morning. Indications are, we may see a probe higher at the open. Although it did not go above the 2134.72 high of May 20, 2015 on Friday, it may do so this morning.

Does that hurt the bearish case? Probably not. You will note that May 19 was exactly 8.6 years (3141.6 days) from the October 11, 2007 high. The time has arrived fro a change of trend. However, I believe that the central banks have been pushing against that change of trend. Thus we have the Orthodox Broadening Top. A move above the upper trendline, called a throw-over, does not invalidate the formation.

Monday, July 11, 2016

Stocks VIX & SP500 Comparison of 2008 Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Today I like to share my thoughts about the S&P 500 index, the volatility index, and what I believe will be the trigger/event which sends stock markets around the world to new multi-year lows.

While the charts shown here are very simple there is a lot of information behind the scenes that backup the analysis/predictions on the charts below.

Monday, July 11, 2016

Stock Market VIX Strategy, Maximum Profits $ / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Joseph_VanDerveer

Proshares UVXY 2x ETF
Everyone wants to find ways to maximize profits and minimize losses.  That's part of the game in trading the market.  I would consider this an extremely high risk/high reward trade. 

Monday, July 11, 2016

Stock Market Challenging the High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is near its all-time high

SPX Intermediate trend: The uptrend from 1810 is now challenging the 2135 high.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Sunday, July 10, 2016

Japanese Stock Market Nikkei and Yen Preparing to Reverse Trends / Stock-Markets / Japanese Stock Market

By: Tony_Caldaro

On Friday the Yen hit our long term target of par (100).

A declining C wave should begin shortly to resume its bear market.

Sunday, July 10, 2016

2007 All Over Again, Part 5: Banking Crisis Imminent / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2016

By: John_Rubino

Our good friend Michael Pollaro just sent a chart from the St. Louis Fed that shows the US drifting back into yet another banking crisis.

Sunday, July 10, 2016

Stock Market - INFLATION – DEFLATION / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Gary_Savage

I listened to the debate between Rick Ackerman and Mike Shedlock on the Kereport today and I wanted to comment on the inflation side. We have a perfect example of two analysts locked into the deflationary crash scenario by what happened in 2009. Both are deflationists and both have been wrong all year long, and basically wrong since the bottom in 2009.

I’ll say it again: In a purely fiat system there is no level of debt that can’t be inflated away. We proved that in the 70’s when we inflated away the Vietnam war debt.

Friday, July 08, 2016

Why Stock Market Investors Should Expect the Unexpected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: EWI

Read our forecast for a market rally in the wake of Brexit

[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]

Investors who jump on "sure things" in the stock market usually lick their wounds with regret.

The decision of British voters to leave the European Union appeared to represent low-hanging fruit to short sellers.

Friday, July 08, 2016

Is the Stock Market Rally Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It appears that SPX may be waiting for the Jobs Report tomorrow morning at 8:30 am to reveal its intent. This is my primary Wave structure for SPX. It follows an irregular Wave pattern that fits within the Orthodox Broadening Top. Although the Broadening Top allows for a probe to or beyond 2120.55, but does not require it. As it stands, Wave [v] of 5 is very nearly equal to Wave [i] of 5, satisfying a wave relationship and indicating a probable completion.

Friday, July 08, 2016

Stock Market Decent Comeback, Mixed, Consolidation Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices had a mixed session. The day started out with a pop to the upside, but they gave it back and then some, getting in the negative column by midday. They retested in the afternoon, making lower lows on the S&P 500, which was not confirmed by the Nasdaq 100. That resulted in a late rally back to finish mixed on the session.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 22.74 at 17,895.88, 70 points off the low. The S&P 500 was down 1.83 at 2097.90, 9 points off its low. The Nasdaq 100 was up 14.88 at 4459.58, 21 points off its low.

Friday, July 08, 2016

Why Stocks Bears Should be Scared / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Clif_Droke

The last year has been a scary time to be an investor. In 2015, the slowdown in China's economy caused undue apprehension to investors and contributed to a nausea-inducing rollercoaster ride which began last July and has continued until now.

By the end of 2015 low energy prices were taking a toll on the high yield debt market, which in turn catalyzed another stock market swoon. Although the decline wasn't severe, the January 2016 market panic ended with the biggest spike in bearish investor sentiment since the 2008 credit crash. This reflects the pronounced tendency among investors to panic at the slightest hint of danger, a spillover effect from the historic 2008 crisis.

Thursday, July 07, 2016

SPX Below 2100, but is it Enough? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX is beneath the 4.5 year trendline. The formation is irregular, so to be safe, we should use the lower trendline of the Broadening Diagonal as a trigger to go short. That appears to be at or just beneath 2090.00. There is always the possibility of using the trendline as a support to launch another algo orgy. Of course, the ultimate safety for the shorts appears to be beneath the 50-day Moving Average.

Thursday, July 07, 2016

Swing Trading the Nasdaq QQQ's / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Joseph_VanDerveer

My strategy is to time the market using the QQQ's which is an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq-100. Powershares QQQ's etf tracks the market-cap-weighted Nasdaq-100 index which is 100 of the largest non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite Index.

I would suggest inexperienced traders stick to using the 1 for 1 vehicle and not the leveraged etf's such as TQQQ's or SQQQ's. These leveraged etf's are meant for shorter time frame trades, not long term. They tend to lose value over time, they are not buy and hold strategy's.

Thursday, July 07, 2016

Forget Shorting the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Gary_Savage

The very beginning of a new intermediate cycle is the single most dangerous time to short stocks. The average gain is 6-8% in the first 12-18 days. Yet this is the time most retail traders want to sell short as they expect the market to turn back down immediately. When it fails to do so they end up losing money.

Thursday, July 07, 2016

4 Risk Indicators Show Extreme Readings and a Huge Divergence in the Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: InvestingHaven

2016 is certainly the year where markets are behaving in an extreme fashion. Most recently, we have witnessed a mini-flash crash post-Brexit with a sharp V-shaped recovery, just in one week.

Our risk indicators have arrived at extreme levels. We pick out 4 fundamental risk indicators from our methodology which we discuss in this article. Apart from extreme readings our risk indicators also show an important divergence. In other words, markets arrived at a critical juncture and are ready to accelerate in the same direction or reverse their course.

Thursday, July 07, 2016

Stock Market Unwinding... Rallying Back.... Waiting On The Right News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The market spent a day and a half trying to fall enough to unwind those overbought, sixty-minute index charts. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are very overbought with RSI's intraday hitting the low 80's. Finally, we saw some selling, which allowed all of those index short-term charts to unwind their RSI's back in to the mid 40's. That was enough to start the move back up, but not enough to get the market exploding. Unwinding was clearly necessary. It's also healthier if you don't stay too overbought for too long. Get things unwound, which will allow for a better floor from which to move higher. Also, if you don't get too overbought it helps prevent negative divergences down the road.

Thursday, July 07, 2016

Is Stock Market VIX Really OK? / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Marty_Chenard

Yesterday, the VIX closed at 15.58, so it looks like it is okay. But is it really?

The verdict is actually not in yet ... take a look at October, April and now. April was the lowest reading, with October and now not as low as it was in April. With that condition, there remains a possibility of an inverted Head & Shoulder pattern which would have upside implications for the VIX.

Thursday, July 07, 2016

SPX Finds Resistance at the Trendline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX appears to have been stopped by the 4.5-year trendline. This may be an ideal spot to add to short positions. The end of day activity may also be bearish, as institutions begin to sell in the final half hour.