Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, July 21, 2008
Stock Market Dead Cat Bounce! Beware of Bear Market Trap / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Martin D. Weiss writes: Bernanke and Paulson's smoke, mirrors and hot air are temporarily buoying markets, luring gullible investors back into stocks! Meanwhile,
Merrill Lynch just disclosed it was creamed by $40 billion in investment write-downs in the second quarter — $69 billion so far this year.
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Monday, July 21, 2008
Stock Market and Crude Oil at Critical Trading Levels / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
Over the last couple of months we have been witnessing the outcome of constant aggressive monetary policy. The Fed has used all its weapons to try to keep the U.S economy out of recession, but at the same time they have spurred inflation. With a current fund rate of merely 2%, the Fed has found itself between a rock and a hard place, combating deteriorating economic growth accompanied by accelerating inflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Stocks Bear Market Decline Over? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): Is the decline over?
“So is the decline over? Anything is possible, but we still have not seen the kind of action that has ended almost every bear market of the last 75 years, according to the Lowry's studies. These previous declines have been characterized by a series of 90% down-days, with the last 90% down-day quickly followed by a 90% up-day.
“Since the May peak, we have seen only two 90% down days – June 6 and June 26. As I said, the ‘normal' situation at the final bottom of a true bear market is a 90% down-day quickly followed by a 90% up-day. So far, this has not occurred.
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Sunday, July 20, 2008
Fannie and Freddie Rescue Could Result in a Run on the US Dollar / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
“The end is neigh” was what many despondent investors were starting to believe as the past week kicked off with volatile trading amid concerns that US regional bank IndyMac's demise was a harbinger of many more bank failures.
Furthermore, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's plan to rescue the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), left investors unconvinced.
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Sunday, July 20, 2008
Global Financial Crisis Worst Since 1930's Depression / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
Q: Are we looking at a financial system "avalanche" rather than a technical bear market, in equities and bonds?
A: In no way can this be seen as a normal bear market. This is undoubtedly the worst financial crisis in the developed world since the 1930s. The only period remotely similar was the bear market of 1973-75, which was itself a part of the extended 1966-82 bear market in US shares. That bear market was driven in part by a 13 fold increase in oil prices from 1972 to 1980. This time we have had a 14 fold increase in oil prices from the $10 low of 1999. Last time we had massive inflation of 20 percent per annum. That has not yet arrived but may well be in the pipeline.
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Saturday, July 19, 2008
Stock Market Bounce Follow Through / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
I took the opportunity last week to offer a big picture review since it was clear we were at an important area in the major stock indices and, even though it avoided the specificity available to paying members, hopefully it kept readers from seeing a trap door early this week and shorting a bottom. This one is offerred as a follow-up on last week's call for a bottom in banks, a top in oil with a rally in stocks. And, of course, the question everyone wants answered now is whether there will be follow-through to this newfound upleg or did Friday's close end a bounce that will begin a march to new lows starting Monday.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 19, 2008
The Financial Dogs Bitching About SEC Short Selling Ruling / Stock-Markets / Government Intervention
Many banks are bitching about the new SEC rules on shorting. On the off chance you are new to the story, it's time for a full recap from the beginning.Complete Chronological Recap
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Saturday, July 19, 2008
Stocks New Bull Market Rally or Bear Market Trap? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Editor's Note: After stock prices surged strongly on Wednesday and Thursday, we decided to look to see if we could determine whether this was a bear-market trap, or the start of a new bull market rally. Our findings may surprise you.
"Put this bell on your pack.”
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Friday, July 18, 2008
Stocks Bounce as Fannie and Freddie Looking for Fresh Capital / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
July 18 ( Bloomberg ) -- Freddie Mac , the second-largest U.S. mortgage-finance provider, is close to removing an obstacle that limited its ability to sell common stock and to increase its holdings of mortgages and securities backed by home loans.
The company is likely to get clearance today to register with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, according to people with knowledge of the plans, who declined to be identified because the decision is confidential.
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Friday, July 18, 2008
Nasdaq holding up After Negative Reaction to Google Earnings / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
Under the circumstances, with negative reaction to GOOG and MSFT, the Q's (Nasdaq: QQQQ) are not acting all that poorly. In fact, the GOOG massacre last yesterday pressed prices right to the 50% support plateau of the most recent rally from 43.30 to 45.82, but has since recovered into the 45.00/10 area.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 18, 2008
Banking Stocks Rally is a Great Selling Opportunity! / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
Mike here with a quick update on the so-called "big rally" in bank stocks this week.
Yes, their shares have soared for the last two days.
And yes, Wall Street is cheering.
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Friday, July 18, 2008
Dow Jones Stocks Index Hits Price to Earnings Fair Value / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
In recent weeks a major secular milestone was achieved in the US stock markets. But because of all the distracting market turbulence, very few investors are even aware it happened. And truth be told, even if the markets weren't plunging I still suspect only the most diligent students of the markets would have any inkling.
The venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average, or Dow 30, finally returned to fair value as measured by its price-to-earnings ratio. This is major secular milestone because it marks the halfway point in the 17-year secular bear in which the Dow 30, and the broader US stock markets, have been mired since early 2000. Understanding the implications of this milestone is exceedingly important for all stock investors.
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Friday, July 18, 2008
Fannie and Freddie Bailout Trigger New Chapter in American History / Stock-Markets / Government Intervention
This week, with the nation's financial infrastructure crumbling before our very eyes, the nation's top two economic policy makers made their way to the Congress for an extraordinary episode of political theater. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the quasi-government entities that form the backbone of America's gargantuan mortgage market, appeared to be cracking. To the somewhat bewildered members of Congress, Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson offered radical remedies to save the lenders. Despite the fact that the proposed policies would thoroughly redefine America's supposedly capitalistic pedigree, the moves were presented as wholly inevitable, and in the end, benevolent and costless.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 18, 2008
Asian Stocks and Gold as Protection Against US Bond Market Collapse / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Larry Edelson writes: With all heck breaking loose in our economy — banks and mortgage companies failing, real estate prices still falling, GM, Ford, Chrysler and virtually the entire airline industry all but officially bankrupt — can you now see why I've been a staunch advocate of gold?
I'm sure you can, and if you've been following my recommendations, you should be very happy indeed.
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Thursday, July 17, 2008
Nationalization Fiasco Forced Upon US Economy, US Dollar and Gold / Stock-Markets / Government Intervention
A grotesque grandiose nationalization initiative is gradually being forced upon the US Economy, US financial system, US political system, and the hapless US citizenry. Its crucible for construction comes from the desperate situation unfolding for the banks, the mortgage holders, and homeowners. Rising costs, falling incomes, failing banks, declining home values, eroding mortgage bonds, interfered financial markets, corruption in Congress, endless war, destructive economic counsel, an unconstitutional US Dollar without gold backing, these factors all contribute toward a crisis without remedy.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Stock Market Monthly Analysis and a look at RIM / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The bear market in US stocks which was initially flagged by the Transport Index in July 07, and was confirmed by the Industrials in October 07, is gaining pace as can be clearly seen in the chart below: the industrial index has crashed through the red 200 day moving average (dma) line.
High oil prices, a crashing real estate market, growing banking troubles and falling consumer confidence all indicate that this bear still has more legs. As with all pullbacks, at some stage it is reasonable to expect an oversold bounce, but given the current market sentiment I would not participate in any long strategy until the earnings season is over. Thus I advise waiting until the forth week in July before considering investing on the bull side.
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Thursday, July 17, 2008
Fear on Wall Street– The Real Deal / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
You may recall our previous article in August 2007, “ Fear in the Streets – A Dress Rehearsal ”.
Well it looks like now the fat lady has not only warmed up but is singing and hitting that high C. This time the fear is real with IndyMac Bank in California disappearing, and Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae under a great deal of stress. Yes, more government bailouts which will cost billions and even more reason for a U.S. Dollar collapse. So, the credit and liquidity crisis continues, the economy slows, oil remains high and inflation is rising in the world setting the stage for much higher prices for gold and silver in the coming months and years.
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Thursday, July 17, 2008
Stock Market VIX Indicator Pointing to Final Capitulation Lows / Stock-Markets / Volatility
Staggered capitulation indications are now coming in from market indicators ...
Everyone is looking at the VIX (Volatility Index) and wondering where and when it will show the capitulation that the Pit Traders have been looking for.
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Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Understanding the Gravity of Current Stock Market Crisis Condition.. / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Many investors don't look at the long term picture of what is happening. I am talking about looking at
10 to 20 year periods of time. If you looked that far out on a number of key stocks and indexes, you would understand the gravity of the current condition we are in.
This morning, we will look at 6 long term charts that will give you a clearer picture of the incredible damage that has occurred to our financial structure and economy. As you will see in the last paragraphs, there is also an important message behind today's analysis.
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Wednesday, July 16, 2008
How to Profit From the Growing US Pension Fund Crisis / Stock-Markets / Pensions & Retirement
Martin Hutchinson writes: Welcome to the latest offshoot of the subprime-mortgage debacle: A burgeoning U.S. pension-fund crisis. Since the global financial crisis struck last fall, the largest 1,500 U.S. public companies have lost a combined $280 billion from their pension funds. Assuming the stock market doesn't move much from here, a typical U.S. company can expect its pension expense – a direct charge against profits – to increase between 20% and 30% in 2009.Read full article... Read full article...