Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, September 27, 2010
The Global Economy and the 4-year Stock Market Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
One of the biggest fears underscoring the financial market since the 2008 credit crisis has been global economic growth. Investors have worried that a global economic slowdown would all but derail what little economic momentum the U.S. has experienced since the recovery started in March 2009. The latest 4-year cycle bottom is just days away, as we’ve discussed in previous reports. In previous decades the 4-year cycle was mainly a U.S. equity market cycle affecting only the U.S. But in today’s reticular global economy where all the major developed and emerging economies are becoming increasingly dependent on each other, the long-term yearly cycles are becoming more fully global phenomena.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 27, 2010
Stock Markets Tentatively Bullish on Economy, Mid-Terms, and Earnings / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Last week’s financial market action is trying to incorporate future outcomes related to the economy, mid-term elections, and earnings season, which kicks off with Alcoa on October 7th. Currently, a bullish bias exists relative to these outcomes, but there is little conviction behind the bullish bias.
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Monday, September 27, 2010
Stock Markets Supported by M&A News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
U.S. stocks rose strongly Friday, sending benchmark indexes to a fourth straight weekly gain, as signs of improving demand for capital goods and technology products tempered concern the economic rebound is slowing. Apple surged to a record as an analyst boosted sales estimates for the iPad tablet computer, while Google climbed to an almost five-month high and Nike surged to the highest price since its initial public offering in 1980 after earnings topped estimates on growing demand in North America and China.
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Monday, September 27, 2010
Brazil, Commodities Bull Market, Are You Missing The Boat? / Stock-Markets / Investing 2010
If you haven’t been investing in the gold market, like I’ve been telling you to do, then not only are you missing the boat …
… but the boat you are in, whatever it may be, is most likely sinking — weighed down by the effects of all the Fed’s money printing, which will continue as far as the eye can see.
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Monday, September 27, 2010
Will the Mid-Term U.S. Elections Drive the Stock Market Into High Gear? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Jon D. Markman writes: The past five days added more hues to the emerging snapshot of U.S. economic growth that is sluggish and top-heavy, but still rolling forward -- kind of like a tank that can't get out of first gear. New data shows that U.S. GDP is back to 70% of its pre-recession strength, but jobs have recovered only 9%. It's this disconnect between output and employment that has made the current "recovery" seem so anemic.
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Sunday, September 26, 2010
Stock Market Headed Lower, The Fed’s Admission Of Guilt / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Before I go off on one of my rants, I want to comment on something. On Friday the Brazilian petroleum company, Petrobras, completed the largest stock offering in history. It sold seventy-eight billion dollars worth of stock to unsuspecting suckers, widows and orphans! I know it’s just paper, but I truly think the world has gone mad. I know they’re supposed to have the largest oil reserves in the world, but the line between what’s “proven” reserves and what’s “probable” reserves often becomes blurred and that is especially true in Latin countries. Investors in Royal Dutch learned that lesson the hard way some years ago when it was learned that they only had a fraction of the proven reserves that had been previously claimed. The people buying Petrobras stock today will get a refresher course in what’s real and what isn’t. Now on to bigger and even more dangerous themes
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Sunday, September 26, 2010
SP500 Stock Market Internals, U.S. Dollar and Gold Pre-Week Analysis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
After a fierce equities rally on Friday, which I figured would happen, just not that strong; I have to wonder if there is some event or major decision in the works we don’t know about?
Friday’s rally could be something simpler like window dressing by the funds. This is when the funds buy up all the top performing stocks for month end reporting. They do this so that their investors think they are on the ball and know what they are doing. Window dressing will end Monday and from there we could see some profit taking (selling) start. But for all we know Obama could be extending the tax cuts for everyone or cutting payroll taxes etc…
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Sunday, September 26, 2010
SPX Cyclical Bull Looks Like Resuming its Uptrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Current Position of the Market
Very Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles are down and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until about 2014-2015.
SPX: Intermediate trend.The has closed outside of its downtrend line. The move signals a new intermediate uptrend, or the continuation of an intermediate sideways consolidation.
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Sunday, September 26, 2010
SPX Stocks Bull Market Projection / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
After observing this bull market unfold for 18 months it appears to be repeating recent pattern with a few variations. The pattern, as we have discussed before, is similar to the 2002-2007 bull market. That bull market took 60 months to unfold, this one is moving a lot faster. My best estimate, at this stage of the wave structure, is for a top around the previous SPX 1576 high by February 2012. This is how I came up with this projection.
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Saturday, September 25, 2010
What happens when stocks meet resistance? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
New orders for durable goods Decline. - New orders for manufactured durable goods in August decreased $2.5 billion or 1.3 percent to $191.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. Down three of the last four months, this decrease followed a 0.7 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.2 percent.
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Saturday, September 25, 2010
Stock Market Spectacular Close to the Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices ended the week in spectacular fashion, gapping up big at the opening and never looking back. The indices rallied sharply, reaching a peak around noon, and then backed off in early afternoon to test support. That was successful, and they bounced again, backed off one more time, and then came on into the close, closing at the session highs.
Net of the day, the Dow was up 197.84 at 10,860.26. The S&P 500 advanced 23.84 to 1148.67, just pennies off its high. The Nasdaq 100 closed right at its high, up 41.69 at 2023.84.
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Saturday, September 25, 2010
Stock Market Keeps Rolling Higher.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Taking folks by surprise for sure. Not many thought this was possible, but those oscillators did give hints to the possibilities. Now we see what happens when things align just right. Get those MACD's compressed down low in their cycle. Get stochastic's oversold and those RSI's down near 30. Add in some positive divergences, and best of all, get the bull-bear spread inverted, and you take the masses by surprise.
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Friday, September 24, 2010
The Next Great Bull Market Begins on This Date... / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: "We face another seven years or so of bad times," Robert Shiller said this week.
Through luck or skill, he's been pretty darn right about these things..
Friday, September 24, 2010
Stock Market - Danger Will Robinson! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Every time we hit a peak and pulled back for the most part you got some sort of retest of the highs.
One look at the charts below tell the story and we can sum it up in three words when we look at the 60 minute charts of the OTC Comp. Dow and S&P 500.
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Friday, September 24, 2010
Fed Free Money Friday / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
What a fun day for debate!
Former Fed Chair, Paul Volcker went way off-script in Chicago yesterday and "moved unsparingly from banks to regulators to business schools to the Fed to money-market funds during his luncheon speech. He praised the new financial overhaul law, but said the system remained at risk because it is subject to future “judgments” of individual regulators, who he said would be relentlessly lobbied by banks and politicians to soften the rules."
Friday, September 24, 2010
Robert Prechter Says Stock Market Could Crash to Dow 2000 - Video / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
In the video below, Robert Prechter talks to Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task and Henry Blodget about extreme readings in various indicators that confirm his stocks bear-market forecast.
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Friday, September 24, 2010
iShares Brazil ETF Let the Carnival Begin! / Stock-Markets / Brazil
Here is a market that we like a lot more than the US market. We really like the way its acting and it looks set to take out the highs that were seen in December of 2009. If that is the case, then we could see this market make all-time highs pretty quickly. You definitely want to have this one on your radar screen.
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Friday, September 24, 2010
A Failed Stock Market Rally... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
After a gap down open, the bulls decided to try to take the NASDAQ-100 to new highs but failed at the critical instant...
Recommendation: Sell shares of DIA to close the long position at the open.
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Friday, September 24, 2010
Stock Market Topsy-Turvy Session Ends Lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices had a topsy-turvy session, opening sharply lower, rallying immediately, and retesting the earlier week's highs on Nasdaq 100 over 2000 at the 2002.50 level. The S&P 500 at that point had rallied back up to 1137, but it was nearly 12 points below Tuesday's high, and the negative divergence caused the indices to back off and consolidate.
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Friday, September 24, 2010
Merger Frenzy and Food Riots Emerging Investment Themes / Stock-Markets / Investing 2010
Two investment themes have emerged over the last few months that are very positive for our portfolio. First, merger and acquisition activity has increased substantially. Secondly, the price of many agricultural commodities have increased and U.S. exports are booming – all very positive for the agricultural sector.
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