Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, March 07, 2010
Riding the Stocks Stealth Bull Market Without Falling Off / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Whilst the mainstream press and financial blogosphere obsesses over doom and gloom as a consequence of the sovereign debt default scenario, the stock market continues to show underlying strength with a strong late week rally that pushed the Dow to a close of 10,562, far above the preceding swing high of 10,438. Clearly where the stock market is concerned the sovereign debt crisis talk is just background noise that continues to keep the scared money away from investing, just as has been the case for the past 12 months where every correction breeds panic Sell commentary.
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Sunday, March 07, 2010
If You Can't Beat 'Em, Join 'Em, Right? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Well before we go and buy stocks BLINDLY based on emotions we need to take a look at the indexes first. Why? Because most stocks trade in tandem with the indexes and success in the market is all about knowing what's happening and likely to happen in the indexes and executing your plan based on that action.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 07, 2010
On the Brink of an Asset Explosion / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
I can virtually guarantee that what I’m about to suggest isn’t on anybody’s radar screen. But before I share my prediction, a little background analysis is in order.
There have been seven previous bull markets that were born in the depths of vicious bear markets similar to what we just went through. Each one of those bulls racked up impressive gains during the initial thrust out of the final low. Throwing out the `32 to `37 bull as an anomaly not likely to be repeated, the average gain for the first two legs of bulls with similar DNA as our own has been between 41% and 73%. After the second leg each one of these bulls underwent a mild corrective pullback of 8% to 14%.
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Sunday, March 07, 2010
The Stock Market Energizer Bunny Rally, Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
FDIC Friday is a quiet one.The FDIC Failed Bank List announced four new bank closures for the week. 26 banks havefailed in 2010. Are things picking up?
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Sunday, March 07, 2010
Stock Market Investor Sentiment, Don't Stray Too Far From The Data / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
I always have the option of how I present the data. I can be negative or positive in my outlook and tone. But one thing I rarely do is stray too far from the data. I am flexible, but I remain data centric in my approach, and this forms the basis for my trading decisions. In the current market environment we find the sentiment picture to be pretty much what it has been for the last 6 months: the "smart money" is bearish and the "dumb money" remains bullish. Under these conditions, I know that the ascent of prices is likely to slow as either range bound trading will develop or an intermediate term top is imminent.
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Saturday, March 06, 2010
Stock Market S&P 500 Trend, What a Pump! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
I have not been posting as frequently as last year. That’s partly because of time constraints. It also is because I have been trying to shift my own approach to longer moves. So, I try to lay out a plan for the week, and try to monitor the progress of the plan. If nothing’s going against the plan, there is no need change it. If adjustments are needed or something develops that may put the plan in jeopardy, then I revisit and would definitely post. Don’t get me wrong, I like to post everyday or even more frequently. But, sometimes, other pressing issues steal the time :-)
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Saturday, March 06, 2010
The Bio and Nano Tech Revolution to Rival Computer Revolution / Stock-Markets / Technology
The Mauldin Test
Who Stole My Nanotech?
Water, Water Everywhere, Nor Any Drop to Drink
The Promise of Biotech
DIY-Bio
Random Takeaways
We are in an era of accelerating change, moving toward a future that will be profoundly different from the past we grew up in. But what will the nature of that change be? What will the future look like? For the last 7 days I have been in an executive program designed by Singularity University (www.singularityu.org) to give some insight into that complex question. We looked at a number of technological fields, lectured by experts assembled to give us some idea as to where current research is and to where it is going. We visited some of the cutting-edge companies here in Silicon Valley.
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Saturday, March 06, 2010
Stock Market Resumes Upward Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Last week's action marks a pivotal point in the stock market cycle. Both improving fundamentals and technicals have shifted the risk/reward ratio towards the long side while IBD has officially called a resumption of an upward trend.
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Saturday, March 06, 2010
Stock Market Post Crash Peak Price Recovery Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Recovery time is a basic concept that we all understand in terms of being out of breath with a rapid pulse after a hard run (for the young), or a trip upstairs for some of us with a few more years of age. The greater the severity of the physical stress and the more prolonged the depletion of short-term reserves, the longer the required recovery time. The better condition we are going into hard work, the shorter our recovery time. Perhaps there a similar kinds of effects in the stock markets.
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Saturday, March 06, 2010
Stock Market Running Higher..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
What other expression fits this market but that. We gapped up this morning on a much better than expected employment report. Far less jobs lost than expected, even with the bad weather. This gave some decent futures a bigger bump up and off we ran. First we saw the bears fight some giving the indexes an early black candles but it didn't last long as the bulls took over. The Nasdaq out performed all day but the other major indexes did quite well on their own. When beta leads it's good news for the market and higher beta definitely led for this day. In fact, the Nasdaq made a new intraday high over the last high by a point, 2327 versus 2326.
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Saturday, March 06, 2010
Stock Market Strong Close to Great Week for Bulls / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices closed the week on a very strong note as opening gaps, and big ones, blew the indices right out of their 3-day consolidations. A strong follow up rally ensued as the indices spiked sharply higher in the morning. They then consolidated in stair-step fashion moving higher on the Nasdaq 100, though sideways on the S&P 500, but late in the session the SPX thrust and played catch-up, actually outdoing the NDX with highs near 1890 NDX and 1139 SPX. At that point they backed off in the last hour but came on again toward the close.
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Friday, March 05, 2010
Protecting Profits from The Apparent Economic Recovery / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
“Senators Outline Plan to Create New Consumer-Protection Unit Within The Fed.”
“Deal Near on Banking Rules”
Wall Street Journal, 3/2/10
Friday, March 05, 2010
Financial Markets Weathering U.S. Payrolls Report / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Markets have really struggled for direction overnight, perhaps not surprising with the US non-farm payrolls report looming large. US equities closed modestly in the black but the commodity complex was generally a touch weaker, credit spreads a touch wider and the Dollar stronger. Walt Disney climbed 2.9% after Bank of America recommended the shares, while Coca-Cola and Boeing rose at least 1% as UBS lifted its ratings on the stocks. Abercrombie & Fitch surged 15% to lead gains in retailers on higher than estimated monthly sales.
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Friday, March 05, 2010
Stock Market Danger and Safety Levels, Where Are We Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Danger/Safety Zones: Danger, risks, fear, safety, greed, confidence and bravery are perceived or emotional components that investors have to deal with.
It was with this in mind that we worked on a model that would show the market's danger and safety levels simultaneously on a graph.
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Friday, March 05, 2010
Financial Markets are Driven by Two Powerful Emotions, Greed and Fear / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
A Weighing Machine - “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine’ – Benjamin Graham
BIG PICTURE – The truth is that the financial markets are driven by two powerful emotions – greed and fear. Essentially, during periods when the market participants are feeling cheerful and optimistic, they end up paying exorbitant prices for mediocre businesses. On other occasions, when investors are feeling pessimistic about the near-term economic prospects, they price wonderful businesses at absurdly low valuations. This manic-depressive behaviour has been consistent since the beginning of time and is largely responsible for the wild short-term gyrations in the financial markets.
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Friday, March 05, 2010
Stock Market Poised for Jobs Report / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Poised for Jobs
The market is getting its hopes up...
Friday, March 05, 2010
Stock Market Some Bullish Indications / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The SPX (in red) is being outperformed by small caps, transports, retailers and technology off the February bottom. It is itself outperforming the Dow. This is a bullish, growth profile. Coupled with continued strength in the US Dollar this suggests significant outperformance of the US economy and US Dollar denominated assets. Further, this profile does not correlate with the prevailing worries over the quality of the economic recovery. Where sentiment and market performance are out of sync there may be opportunity present.
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Thursday, March 04, 2010
Stock Markets Testing the 78.6 Fibonacci Level / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
What’s Behind Doors 1, 2 and 3?
Here we are testing the 78.6 Fibonacci Level.
Thursday, March 04, 2010
Sultans Of Swap: Fearing the Gearing! / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2010
Ever imagine getting your tie caught in a mechanical set of gears (sorry ladies - but I will spare you). The results are nasty! Now you know what the Sultans of Swap in the $695 Trillion global OTC derivatives market feel like. Every day the slow moving gears of the world economies relentlessly grind, making it harder and harder for the Sultans to wiggle loose or breath.
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Thursday, March 04, 2010
Trends In Gold, 10 Year Treasury Yields, And Crude Oil / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the S&P500 and the indicator is shown in the lower panel. This week's value isn't reflected in the indicator until Friday's close, but if the markets closed right now the indicator would be at the extreme zone. If you had been so smart to only "buy" the S&P500 during those times when the indicator was extreme, then you would get those trades seen in figure 1. Winning trades are in green; the losing trades are noted by the red trend line.
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