Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, September 10, 2018
Lehman and Normalcy Bias / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Andy_Sutton
It is now September. The time of year that the fright forecasters live for. Their dispatches grow more and more desperate. Tragedy lies just on the horizon. ‘Buy our products now’ they say or ‘reap the whirlwind’. We are now just a few days from the 10th anniversary of the Lehman Weekend Extravaganza which was the official start date of what stuffed shirts in media and politics call the ‘Great Recession’.
On the US side of the Atlantic, the goings on since have edged people into what is called normalcy bias. How can that be you might ask; the Dow has quadrupled since 3/6/2009. That’s an average annual return over double the market’s average annual return over the prior 100 years. The sad thing is there is not a single average investor we know of who has seen their paper stocks quadruple in the last ten years. Those types of gains are reserved for hedge funds, and JP Morgan’s trading desk, not the average person. The idea that the playing field is level is so ludicrous it is actually funny.
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Saturday, September 08, 2018
Stock Market Weak September Start Like 1987, 1991, and 2001? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Earlier this week I said that September would probably be weak. So far this weakness has played out, with the S&P falling every day this past week.
There are only 3 other historical cases in which the S&P started September by falling 4 days in a row.
- September 1987
- September 1991
- September 2001
Friday, September 07, 2018
The Stock Market is Experiencing “Sector Rotation”. Is this Bearish? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market has been experiencing sector rotation recently.
- Earlier this year: the NASDAQ outperformed the Dow
- Now: the Dow is outperforming the NASDAQ (Dow is catching up).
Conventional technical analysis would have you believe that this is a bearish sign for the stock market. Conventional technical analysis states that “the bull market is dead when the leaders become laggards and previous laggards become leaders”.
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Friday, September 07, 2018
The Most Important Chart To Explain Why Stock Market Bears Lose Money / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
I have spoken about this many times in the past, but the fact is that very few understand our financial markets. While no one is perfect when it comes to being able to identify turning points in the market, I think we all know that there has been a significant increase in that lack of perfection when it comes to the US stock market over the last three years.
You see, many focus on the wrong factors when making decisions about the stock market. While events such as Brexit, Frexit, Grexit, rise in interest rates, cessation of QE, terrorist attacks, Crimea, Trump, Syrian missile attack, North Korea, record hurricane damage in Houston, Florida, and Puerto Rico, quantitative tightening, trade wars, and many more have scared investors into believing the bull market will come to an end, none of these events have even put a dent in this bull market as it has rallied 50% during this period.
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Thursday, September 06, 2018
Mixed Stock Market, Topping Pattern or Just Pause Within a Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were mixed on Wednesday, as investors continued to take profits off the table following the recent rally. The broad stock market remains relatively close to its new record high. Is this a topping pattern or just pause before another leg up?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -1.2% and +0.1% on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following the recent record-breaking rally. The S&P 500 index has reached the record high of 2,916.50 last week. It currently trades below 2,900 mark. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 1.2% yesterday.
The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is at 2,875-2,885, marked by last week's Monday's daily gap up of 2,876.16-2,884.69 and yesterday's daily low of around 2,877. The support level is also at 2,860-2,865. On the other hand, the nearest important level of resistance is at 2,900. The next resistance level is at 2,910-2,915, marked by the mentioned last Wednesday's record high.
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Thursday, September 06, 2018
China Contagion Risk is Now Spreading, And US Stock Market is NOT Immune / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Graham_Summers
As we noted yesterday, the global financial system is beginning to experience its first taste of “contagion” risk in years.
US stocks remains clueless to this… but it’s doubtful that will continue
China (black line in chart below) has imploded and is in a full-blown bear market. The odds that the US stock market (blue line in charts below) can avoid what’s affecting China are low.
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Thursday, September 06, 2018
China Economy Sneezed… Will the World Catch Cold? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Graham_Summers
The markets are getting downright ugly. If things don’t turn up soon we could be at the point at which the Everything Bubble begins to burst.
While US stocks have performed relatively well recently, globally things are looking worse and worse.
Germany’s DAX never reclaimed its former high established back in January. Instead it’s been carving out a massive Head and Shoulders pattern. Germany is the fourth largest economy in the world and heavily reliant on exports for growth. This chart pattern doesn’t bode well for global trade or growth.
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Wednesday, September 05, 2018
S&P Made a New Stock Market High in August. Pullback in September? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500 made a monthly closing all-time high in August. This is uncommon, because the U.S. stock market is usually more volatile from May – September.
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Tuesday, September 04, 2018
Stock Market VIX & S&P: This Bearish Study isn’t as Bad as You Think / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
VIX and the S&P trend higher together during the final innings of a bull market.
Here’s VIX and the S&P 500 before the stock market’s top in 2007.
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Tuesday, September 04, 2018
We Have Had 9 Years To 'Prepare For The Stock Market Crash,' So Are We There Yet? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Avi_Gilburt
This past week, I read an article entitled “When Will S&P 500 Valuations Matter Again?,” written by Gary Gordon.
And, in his first bullet point, he said “truth be told, valuations have not mattered for the public markets for three-and-a-half years.” He then goes on to state that “on virtually any methodology one employs, the U.S. stock market is extremely overpriced.”
In coming to this conclusion, he has reviewed price-to-free-cash-flow, price-to-sales, market-cap-to-GDP, and other valuation matrices. Yet, as he noted in his bullet point, these valuations have not mattered for the three and half years where the market added 50% to its price. Yes, that is a 50% return which cannot be supported by traditional valuation methodologies.
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Tuesday, September 04, 2018
Financial Crisis 10 Years Later – No Lessons Learned / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: James_Quinn
“A variety of investors provided capital to financial companies, with which they made irresponsible loans and took excessive risks. These activities resulted in real losses, which have largely wiped out the shareholder equity of the companies. But behind that shareholder equity is bondholder money, and so much of it that neither depositors of the institution nor the public ever need to take a penny of losses. Citigroup, for example, has $2 trillion in assets, but also has $600 billion owed to its own bondholders. From an ethical perspective, the lenders who took the risk to finance the activities of these companies are the ones that should directly bear the cost of the losses.” – John Hussman – May 2009
This month marks the 10th anniversary of the Wall Street/Fed/Treasury created financial disaster of 2008/2009. What should have happened was an orderly liquidation of the criminal Wall Street banks who committed the greatest control fraud in world history and the disposition of their good assets to non-criminal banks who did not recklessly leverage their assets by 30 to 1, while fraudulently issuing worthless loans to deadbeats and criminals. But we know that did not happen.
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Monday, September 03, 2018
Dow Secondary Stock Market High Imminent / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Austin_Galt
Previous analysis updated – price as traded as outlined, rising to levels where a secondary is likely to form. However, there is a change to the longer term outlook in that I now favour a more substantial correction to take place before the overall bull market resumes.
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Monday, September 03, 2018
The S&P has become overbought for the first time in 7 months. What’s next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. stock market (S&P 500) has become overbought for the first time in a long time. It’s 14 daily RSI has reached 70 for the first time since late-January 2018 while it remains above its 200 daily moving average.
In other words, momentum has returned to the stock market.
When momentum returns to the stock market, its forward returns over the next year are very bullish. Don’t turn bearish just because the stock market is overbought.
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Sunday, September 02, 2018
Financial Markets Are Nearing the Line in the Sand / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Harry_Dent
Most of the classic technical indicators favor a continued rally in stocks into 2019.
And that’s still my preferred scenario for a final peak. One that happens in late 2019, coming off of this Trump rally that started in late 2016.
It could be near its peak growth rate after the 4.1% GDP report.
But it’s not likely to be sustainable for long given that we are running out of workers to rehire, and the real estate bubble seems to be finally be running out of steam due to such high prices making homes and rentals unaffordable.
Saturday, September 01, 2018
S&P Makes 4 Consecutive All-time Highs in August. Like 1987? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
New-all time highs in August for the U.S. stock market are rare because the stock market’s seasonality in August isn’t particularly bullish. But you know what’s even rarer? 4 consecutive all-time highs in August.
As of yesterday, the S&P made 4 consecutive all-time highs (CLOSE $) in August.
The last time this happened was in August 1987, just before the S&P made a “big correction”.
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Friday, August 31, 2018
Dow How Much Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: readtheticker
Lucifer was loved in heaven the day before he fell.
Reference: SP500 Cycle Review
The angels today are: Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), NetFlix (NFLX) and Google (GOOGL). These stocks are loved by the masses, so much so there is a sellers strike. There is no supply of stock float, as no one is selling hence prices rises month after month.
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Thursday, August 30, 2018
Stock Market Trend Forecast Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's now over 1 month since I published my stock market trend forecast for the whole of the remainder of 2018 on the 21st of July 2018 which was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Wednesday, August 29, 2018
Here Are Top Market Predictions from Camp Kotok / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: John_Mauldin
I’m back from Camp Kotok. As always, it was both rejuvenating and enlightening.This year, I quickly sensed a more upbeat mood. There were not that many that were wildly bullish, but most were positive or at least neutral. There weren’t nearly as many bears as I expected. “Cautious optimism” seemed to be the theme.
That led me to refine my own views with a wide variety of participants. Today, I’ll do the same for you.
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Wednesday, August 29, 2018
Elliott Wave Analysis of TWM (ProShares UltraShort Russell 2000) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: WavePatternTraders
The recent gyrations between Jun – Aug 2018 appear to count well enough as a running triangle. For those readers that have some knowledge of Elliott Wave, will note that a triangle is a very common pattern for a 4th wave of an impulse wave. I am counting the current decline from April 2018 as a 5th wave of a larger impulse wave that started from the 2016 highs (2016 lows on the Russell 2000).
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Tuesday, August 28, 2018
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's now over 1 month since I published my stock market trend forecast for the whole of the remainder of 2018 on the 21st of July 2018 which was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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