Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, December 30, 2011
U.S. Markets and Election 2012, Pull Out The Big Guns! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
By: UnpuncturedCycle
You know it's only a question of time. Ron Paul is in the lead in Iowa and running a strong second in New Hampshire so the press is bringing out the big guns in an effort to knock him down. The top two articles on MSN.com are "Is Ron Paul A Homophobe?" and "Romney Surges in Iowa" with the latter implying that his move to overtake Paul is all but in the bag. I know a thing or two about the Midwest since I grew up in Illinois and I can tell you that the folks in Iowa won't lose a minute's sleep if Paul came out against homosexuals or not.¹ The problem is no one expected him to be "in the game" right now and folks on the Republican side of the isle are very nervous. That means things will get very dirty.
Friday, December 30, 2011
New 2012 Massive QE Investor Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
By: DeepCaster_LLC
“Even as the Dow struggles higher, the internals of the stock market grow weaker. It’s as if a mortally wounded soldier, a bayonet thrust into his stomach, rises to make a final dash towards the enemy. With his last breath he still presents the picture of a fierce fighting man.” Richard Russell, 12/28/11
Friday, December 30, 2011
When Ticks Outnumber Dogs, What to Expect for Investment Environment 2012 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
A new year is upon us. What should we expect from the investment environment in 2012. Over the past several years, the stock markets have been transformed from markets to casinos, from investing to gambling, and from skill to fortune. Central bank intervention and manipulation has morphed into domination and control. We have witnessed, and continue to witness, a profound change in the way our economies function. We must adapt or we shall perish. If there is one fundamental difference that distinguishes today from decades passed, it is this. Going forward, I believe the key theme will be that the ticks now outnumber the dogs. Let me explain.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Stock Market Looks Poised to Reverse Hard to Downside Within Days / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: David_Banister
The market has been in the process of a near 13 Fibonacci week corrective rally since the October 4th 2011 lows at 1074 on the SP 500. So far the highs reached on the initial rally of 218 points were in October at 1292. That has remained the high water mark as we have consolidated over the last many weeks. I expect the market to complete this counter-trend ABC bounce during the Dec 27th-29th window, followed by a good sized correction into Mid-January ahead of the earning season.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Stock Market Back on Crash Alert / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Yesterday the SPX decline to mid-cycle support/resistance at 1249.27. This morning it is taking a brief bounce to retest the 200 day moving average at 1258.87. As an alternate, it may challenge the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1259.02.
Additional support may lie at the 50 day moving average at 1235.61 or the intermediate-term trend support at 1230.87. However, other circumstances dictate that those supports may have little influence on the decline.
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Thursday, December 29, 2011
Stocks Are Topping, Gold Has Topped and Gold & Silver Are Moving Lower / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The last week of the year volume tends to be light due to the fact that big money traders are busy enjoying the holidays and waiting for their yearend bonuses.
I was not planning on doing much this week because of the low volume but after reviewing some charts and risk levels on my top 5 trading vehicles I could not help but share my findings with everyone last Friday.
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Thursday, December 29, 2011
Get Ready for Another Stock Market Plunge! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The VIX has staged a breakout of its smaller Ending Diagonal Formation, but is still underneath mid-cycle support/resistance at 26.94 and the upper trendline of its larger Declining Wedge formation. The VIX is posing a challenge to the equities markets again. My best interpretation of the cycles is that the VIX may be challenging the upper trendline of the Declining Wedge formation by the end of this week.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Stock Market Back To No Control........ / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Jack_Steiman
The market getting back up to the breakout area of 1267 on the S&P 500 looked so promising if you're a bull. We headed into the holiday weekend with breakouts that were the talk of the stock market world. The bulls were talking the talk as it seemed Europe was under control for the moment. The reports in the United States, currently, aren't at all bad. The reasons for a breakout seemed real. That is, until today when the bears, not so fast, stopped us cold when we tried to break things down. But now, we're stopping the bears as well. No one in control. Volume is light, thus, both sides need not apply too much pressure to hold the other side off from making the bigger move. Holiday time of year when volume is basically light.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Euro Holds Key For Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Chris_Ciovacco
The best way to monitor the sustainability of the current push higher in stocks (SPY) is to keep an eye on the euro and U.S. dollar. The correlation between stocks and the euro has been strong in recent months. In the current environment, when the euro strengthens, stocks tend to come along for the ride.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Stock Market Volatility Lurks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Fred_Sheehan
The European Union is putting its money where its mouth is. Never taking the slightest blame for euro woes, its New York employees are moving to new offices at 666 Third Avenue. The EU's United Nations delegation will "take about 45,000 square feet .... and pay about $60 a square foot annually for 15 years...." reported Bloomberg on December 23, 2011. Negotiations with its prospective new landlord, Tishman Speyer Properties L.P., are nearing completion. The real estate company should consider an anti-EU hedge at the moment the EU signs up.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Central Bankers vs. Natural Stock Market Cycles in 2012 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: David_Knox_Barker
Government fiscal policy and central bank monetary policy have the specific goal of stamping out the business cycle. Governments have been intervening in the economy and financial markets with fiscal policies for thousands of years. Central banking, at least its current form of the last one-hundred years or so, offers more sophisticated and less transparent methods of intervention including interest rates, quantitative easing (QE), reserve requirements, currency swap lines, bank loans, etc. Use of these tools has risen sharply in recent decades, but they have never really worked. It is time to realize that business cycles and their accompanying market cycles are natural forces that are here to stay.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
U.S. Treasury Bonds About To Plunge? Implications For Stocks and Gold Silver / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
By: Willem_Weytjens
Are Bonds about to plunge? And if so (or if not), what are the implications for stocks and precious metals?
Let’s have a look at TLT, which is the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund.
Back in 2008, at the climax of the financial crisis, TLT was very stretched above the 200MA, and the RSI was very oversold on a weekly basis.
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Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Krugman's Missed Call; Europe/China/Japan; Sideways Markets; Profit Margins; Microsoft / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
By: Vitaliy_Katsenelson
Paul Krugman wrote about China in his New York Times column last Monday. That’s a topic that you have researched closely. He said that "China’s story just sounds too much like the crack-ups we’ve already seen elsewhere," referring to the financial crisis in the US and the Japanese lost decade. Do you agree with his assessment?
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Stock Market Rally Time for a Pause / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The current action suggests that a wave "C" from 1075 is underway and, after a short consolidation, has resumed its uptrend.
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Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Stock Market Year End Notes, More Broadening Tops / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
While everyone is looking at the Dow in the SPX, virtually no one is paying attention to the NDX. The rally from August 9 to December 5 was very choppy and overlapping, with the best interpretation being a wave two. Since December 5 it has made an impulsive decline to 2950.71 and three wave correction. As of Friday it has stalled at mid-cycle resistance at 2287.57.
Monday, December 26, 2011
Stock Market Inflection Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Toby_Connor
After a rough beginning on monday US stocks surged tuesday, following the ECB’s successful LTRO results, then continued higher for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW were +3.65% and the NDX/NAZ were +2.25%. Asian markets gained 0.6%, European markets surged 3.5%, and the DJ World index rose 3.0%. Economic reports in the US were mixed, with positives outnumbering negatives 8:7. On the uptick: NAHB, housing starts, building permits, consumer sentiment, durable goods orders, new home sales, the monetary base, and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: existing home sales, Q3 GDP, leading indicators, FHFA, personal income, the M1-multiplier and the WLEI. Next week, a holiday shortened week, Case-Shiller and the Chicago PMI.
Saturday, December 24, 2011
Stock Market Holiday Short Squeeze and Crude Oil Trade Idea / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Typically, the week before Christmas, stocks and commodities drift higher due to the lack of participants. Light volume favours higher prices, which is why stocks want to rise going into the holiday season.
The big money players, like hedge fund managers, are finished for the year. They’re sitting on the sidelines enjoying the holiday season while waiting for their year-end bonus checks.
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Saturday, December 24, 2011
Stock Market Bulls Closing In.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Jack_Steiman
One week ago the market was closing in on breaking down below S&P 500 1225. It failed to hold the breakdown once it occurred as the bears just couldn't find any momentum once the level was taken out. A slow grind lower ensued, with the bulls, eventually, holding the line in the sand. Here we are with the bulls trying to press through massive resistance between 1260/1657. You need a gap up and out to confirm the move, so we'll be looking for that on Tuesday when we open for trading once again. The bears choked big time when they had their chance, especially since they actually broke through key support at 1225. Now, the bulls are on the precipice of breaking through their major headache resistance area. Let's see what they can, or can't, do with it.
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Saturday, December 24, 2011
Stock Markets in a Pre-Crash Pattern / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
-- The VIX appears to be nearing completion of a doubly indicated bullish Descending Wedge pattern on December 27. It will then have completed a Master Cycle low, beginning a new bullish cycle pattern for the VIX. The master cycle low appears to have been delayed, but I wish to assure you that the low will occur within turn window allowed for it. What follows may be a breakout above the wedge as early as the end of next week.
Saturday, December 24, 2011
Europe Bond Market To Remain Problematic For Stocks In 2012 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Chris_Ciovacco
Wall Street tends to segregate “bond-guys” from “stock guys”. The bond side of the market tends to be more conservative; they also perform more detailed research meaning they actually look at the numbers. The stock side of the market is based more on momentum, gut feel, and stories.