Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, March 29, 2015
Stock Market About Ready to Crash! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Last time, I talked about there being one more rally left and then the market would drop big. I see no change in that outlook (after looking over the Gann Cycles from last Monday, I have determined that the next top would be April 2). I also talked about the false breaks on the rising wedges of various indices.
In this article, we are going to go over some of those charts, including the daily MACD, Chaiken's Money Flow as well as silver. Yes, the reason I want to go over the weekly chart of silver, is to look at the some of the reasons why we are going to have huge swings of the markets over the next weeks, months and years. The problem is, we are dealing with deflation, but at the same time, countries are inflating their currencies like mad trying to head that threat off.
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Sunday, March 29, 2015
Investing From Complexity to Chaos, From a Trickle to a Flood / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015
Michael E. Lewitt writes: As a volatility trader, I loved seeing stocks drop 2% last week after having risen 3%. But as a credit trader and student of market behavior, I know all too well that this type of volatility is a forecast of stormy seas ahead.
Markets were disturbed last week by more evidence that the economy is weak, in spite of the fact that a steady stream of lousy economic news this year has done little to prevent stocks from reaching new highs. With first quarter GDP increasingly likely to come in at well below 1% – a number that certainly can't be blamed on the weather alone – investors are now starting to sweat.
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Saturday, March 28, 2015
Stock Market Inflection Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The market started the week at SPX 2108. After an opening rally on Monday, the market hit SPX 2115 before 10am. Then after the first half hour of trading the market was essentially down for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 2.25%, the NDX/NAZ lost 2.75%, and the DJ World index lost 1.8%. On the economic front reports came in nearly all to the upside, for the first time in weeks/months. On the uptick: existing/new home sales, the CPI, FHFA housing prices, consumer sentiment, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: durable goods orders. Q4 GDP came in unchanged at +2.2%, and registered 2.4% growth for 2014, compared to growth of 2.2% in 2013 and 2.3% in 2012. Next week’s busy economic calendar will be highlighted by Personal income/spending, the PCE and non-farm Payrolls.
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Saturday, March 28, 2015
Stock Market Investment Parachutes; Do You Have Yours? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
"After twenty minutes, a bell rings and a commander jumps to the end of the line of us and takes the yellow cord from the packs on our back and hooks it up to a cable running the length of the plane. He quickly checks our helmet and reserve chute, then moves on to the next one in line. A few more minutes later and the side rear doors of the plane open, kicking up dust and leaves that were tracked into the plane. The breeze cools us temporarily, but then another commander looks down the line and raises his arms for the first ten guys to stand up....
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Saturday, March 28, 2015
Stock Market Nothing From Nothing.... Headaches Still Out... Bears Still Not Getting It Done..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Logic. The one thing you should never apply to the stock market. Play what you see, as I always say, not what logic dictates. We can say logically that all the headaches we know exist from froth to negative divergences should be killing this market. P/E's alone enough to get the job done. That doesn't mean it's what we will actually see. Logic says one thing. Price is saying another for now. It's why I always say don't let emotion make you force trades that aren't there. It's so tempting to short this market with aggression. Part of me wants to do that but price action just isn't occurring in a way that says it's safe to do just that. I only play what the market tells me, but right now the market isn't telling me anything at all worthwhile.
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Saturday, March 28, 2015
Did the Stock Market Really Fail 3 Times? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Three times it tried ... Yes, the NYA Index tried to move and stay above its 11108.39 resistance, but it failed to do so three times.
For normal investors, this is high danger sign that suggests moving cautiously is prudent.
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Friday, March 27, 2015
Stocks Bear Market Conditions - Index Market Range Warning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Since the beginning of January 2014 stocks have shown signs of institutional selling. This can be seen in the small capitalization stocks index the Russell 2000. This group of stocks generally leads the S&P 500.
Most bull market tops in the S&P 500 shown below take 8-12 months to form before it starts to fall in value. So far the market has been under distribution selling meaning the large traders (institutions, hedge funds) is selling their positions to the average investor to be left holding the bag when things go south.
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Friday, March 27, 2015
Stock Market New Head & Shoulders Formation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Good Morning!
As I observed yesterday’s action, it appears that the right shoulder of a Head & Shoulders formation has been formed. The minimum Target is 1976.14, which triggers yet another Broadening Wedge, or at least a support level at 1990.00.
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Thursday, March 26, 2015
How Stock Investors Should Play the 2016 Presidential Race / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Matthew Carr writes: There’s still a lot of anxiety bubbling in the markets. We started this week with three down days. As I write this, on Wednesday afternoon, the Dow is down 182 points.
It seems like everyone wants to bail. But there is a trend underway investors shouldn’t ignore... one you don’t want to bet against.
This past weekend, Sen. Ted Cruz kicked off the 2016 campaign season by officially throwing his hat into the ring. Which means we can now look forward to enduring two years of divisive campaign trail rhetoric.
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Thursday, March 26, 2015
Stock Market Up 206% in Six Years... Time to Sell? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Dr. David Eifrig writes: Do yourself a favor and forget this next fact entirely...
The stock market has risen 206% over the past six years.
We recently hit the sixth anniversary of this stellar bull market. It was March 9, 2009 when the market bottomed after the financial crisis. If you had the guts to buy stocks at that time, you've done great.
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Thursday, March 26, 2015
Stock Market Downward Spiral of Dumbness / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The Comex is a bucket shop, but the question remains how much of a bucket shop have the major equity exchanges become in the hands of the High Frequency Teasers?
So far the decline may be a bit exhilarating for the largely clueless 'buy and hold' crowd, but as shown in the SP 500 cash chart below it has dropped to familiar territory around the 100 DMA.
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Thursday, March 26, 2015
Stocks Sold Off And Retraced Last Week's Advance, Will They Continue Down? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Thursday, March 26, 2015
Stock Market Large Gap Down, Despite the Algos' Push Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
At 5:00 am the SPX futures were down 19 points, but a push-back ensued to cut that decline nearly in half. The Premarket still shows the better part of that rout in stocks.
ZeroHedge reports, “In a somewhat surprising turn of events, this morning's futures reaction to last night's shocking start of a completely unexpected Yemen proxy war, which has seen an alliance of Gulf State launch an air, and soon land, war against Yemen's Houthi rebels, is what one would expect: down, and down big.”
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Thursday, March 26, 2015
Global Financial Markets Are More Distorted Than Ever Before / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
Felix Zulauf writes: Investors started off 2015 with a slow global economy, low oil prices, a strong Dollar, and a deflationary Europe with great uncertainties on the progress of the US economy and the recent launch of Europe's quantitative easing. The question is, what opportunities lie ahead? This article highlights the main topics covered in an interview between Mr. Frank Suess, CEO and Chairman of BFI Capital Group, with the globally renowned Swiss fund manager, Mr. Felix Zulauf. Mr. Zulauf currently heads Zulauf Asset Management, a Switzerland-based hedge fund and has forty years of experience with global financial markets and asset management. He has been a member of the Barron's Roundtable for over twenty years.
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Thursday, March 26, 2015
One More Stock Market Rally and Then a Huge Drop Expected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Last article, I wrote about an important top coming. On March 25, the US Market dropped about 1.4% to 2061. The E-Waves are saying we are not through yet to the upside. I talked about the Bradley Siderograph and Financial Astrology, and used some humor (but I was quite serious...joking on the square so to speak). I also promised to show you some volume figures (this time around it will be the On Balance Volume on the SPY)
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Wednesday, March 25, 2015
Danger Will Robinson - Stock Market Crash Warning / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
It’s funny how the truth sometimes leaks out from the government. I’m guessing that Mr. Ted Berg will not be working for the Office of Financial Research much longer. This new agency was created by the Dodd Frank Law and is supposed to protect consumers from the evil Wall Street banks. But we all know the evil Wall Street banks wrote the bill, have gutted the major provisions, have captured all the regulatory agencies, own the Federal Reserve, and control all the politicians in Washington D.C. So, when an honest government analyst writes an honest truthful report that unequivocally proves the stock market is grossly overvalued and headed for a crash, the Wall Street banking cabal will surely call the top government apparatchiks to voice their displeasure. Truth is treason in an empire of lies.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2015
Why CNBC Is Hazardous to Your Financial Health! / Stock-Markets / Mainstream Media
Michael E. Lewitt writes: If you want to lose all of your money, you could do worse than tune in to CNBC on a regular basis.
The network is a cheerleader for an overvalued stock market and the Federal Reserve policies that have pumped it up – and which are steering the economy straight into another recession.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2015
Stock Market Decline Gaining Momentum / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
It appears that my forecast of a drop to the 50-day was correct, but in a way that I had not imagined. All the red skid marks (excuse me, red candles) that you see may be a running correction where each successive zigzag had a lower top and a lower bottom. It is likely that the first hourly candle this morning was a sub-Micro Wave c of a sub-Minute Wave (ii). We may see a brief bounce at Short-term support at 2076.91, but the real target is the 50-day Moving Average at 2065.83, where a sub-Minute Wave (iii) may put in a low.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2015
Carefully Watch The Stock Market NYA Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
While the other indexes are typically showing levels above their resistance line, the NYA index is still below its resistance.
Is there a problem with that?
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Wednesday, March 25, 2015
SPX Futures Appear Weak. WTIC and Gold May Be at Max Retracement / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
Good Morning!
So far, SPX Premarket is going nowhere as of this report. This bolsters the argument that SPX must decline at least to its next level of support at 2085.18 before any retracement, since it completed an impulse from 2114.86 yesterday. It may go deeper, possibly to the 50-day Moving Average at 2065.36. It’s hard to label the squiggles in the Elliott Wave. One thought is that it may be doing a running correction with no visible retracement.
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