Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Saturday, November 26, 2011
European Banking Exposure to Bankrupt PIIGS Will Weigh on Financial Markets 2012 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
We took a list of the largest European banks by assets and compared their market cap, common equity, and total exposure to PIIGS debt (thank you for the bank statistics, EBA!). Then we calculated exposure to PIIGS debt (sovereign and private) as a percentage of the banks’ common equity.
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Saturday, November 26, 2011
Japan Stock Market Meltdown, Screaming From the Rooftops / Stock-Markets / Japanese Stock Market
I promise that for now, this is the last time I will comment on the Japanese stock market. I only feel the need to scream from the rooftops on this one because I am not seeing anyone else commenting on it, and I believe it is HUGELY important. The third (?) largest economy in the world is demonstrating conditions ripe for a stock market meltdown.
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Saturday, November 26, 2011
Something Investors Can Be Thankful For! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Headlines have been full of gloom and doom for some time; high unemployment, the housing industry in a depression, record government debt, governments dysfunctional, and on and on.Fear-mongers and ‘big picture’ theorists are having a field day with it all.
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Saturday, November 26, 2011
How Far Will the Stocks Bear Market Fall During the 2012? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The stock market's 17-month drop into March 2009 erased all the gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since the late 1990s. That's a full decade's worth of gains.
And the two-week drop that ended August 9 basically wiped out all the gains from 2010 - 2011.
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Friday, November 25, 2011
The Secular Stocks Bear Market and Gold's A-Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
I have decided to post the weekend premium report to the blog this week. In this report I'm going to take a look at what has transpired and what is likely to come, as the third leg down in the secular bear market begins to intensify.
Back in April of this year I warned investors to get out of stocks in their 401(k) accounts. At the time the dollar was moving into the timing band for a major three year cycle low. It has always been my expectation that the rally out of that major bottom would correspond with the stock market moving down into the third bear market leg of the secular trend that has been in place since 2000. As we now know the dollar did bottom in May of this year and that did correspond with the top of the cyclical bull market that began in March of 2009. It has also been my expectation that the next four year cycle low would occur in the fall of 2012, and that 2012 would be one of the worst economic years in human history.
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Friday, November 25, 2011
Europe's Red Tape Blues / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Plus ça Change.....
Another month, another Euro area country in the hot seat... Italy already had issues thanks to the buffoonery of its former Prime Minister and it’s now the target of bond vigilantes. No real surprises and no mystery about the steps the euro area countries have to take. What steps get taken and how forcefully is the issue as it has been for months. It’s still all politics.
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Friday, November 25, 2011
Stocks Bear Market Seasonals / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The general stock markets’ day-to-day price action utterly dominates individual stock sectors, including commodities stocks. So anything traders can do to better understand the forces driving the stock markets as a whole leads to better stock entries and exits universally. With this truth in mind, many speculators and investors wonder whether commodities-like seasonality also exists in the general stock markets.
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Friday, November 25, 2011
Stock, Gold, and Bond Markets Holiday Observations / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
The whole family is gathered here, and I haven’t heard so much laughter in a long time. We are also celebrating the arrival of a new granddaughter. I hope you all have much to be thankful for, too.
The VIX appears ready to break out of its diamond formation. This will likely be manifest by a strong surge above its October 3 high. The diamond formation is a classic reversal formation usually accompanied by strong volume once the breakout occurs.
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Friday, November 25, 2011
Stock Market End of Year Trading Strategies, Tax Loss Selling, Santa Claus Rally and January Effect / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Larry D. Spears writes: Before yesterday's Thanksgiving leftovers even got cold many U.S. consumers ventured out to catch the best Black Friday deals, already worried about how much this holiday shopping season will cost them.
But instead of fretting over how much you'll spend this year, now's the time to focus on how much more you can earn.
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Friday, November 25, 2011
Stock Market Breaks Support, Heading Lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
When I last sent out an article for public consumption we were talking about Greece and the potential for a wide spread problem in Europe. The G-20 was about to meet and there was wild anticipation that a EU “solution” to the sovereign debt crisis was finally at hand. By now we know that Europe has yet to do anything to alleviate the situation. In the US we learned two days ago that the “Super Committee” was a super bust. They weren’t able to agree on anything so a series of automatic cuts, to be implemented two years down the road, totaling US $1 trillion will take place. That’s a far cry from the US $3.7 trillion that they were aiming for and is typical of the political leadership on both sides of the pond.
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Thursday, November 24, 2011
Stock Market Thanksgiving Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
SHORT TERM: markets try to rebound from oversold levels, DOW (YM) -19
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and closed -0.20%. US index futures were higher, then lower overnight: SPX (ES) -0.75 and NDX (NQ) -3.75. The US market is closed for the holiday and will reopen tomorrow. Bonds lost 15 ticks, Crude gained 70 cents, Gold slipped $1.00, and the USD was lower.
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Thursday, November 24, 2011
Stock and Financial Markets Thanksgiving Thoughts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
What an ugly finish November is having!
We’ve been trying to get bullish with little success and, if we are not reversing tomorrow, I will be regretting the wasted time poking at bullish plays when we could have been going "wheeeee" on the slide.
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Thursday, November 24, 2011
Gold, U.S. Dollar, U.S. Treasuries, & China: Contrarian Investor Opportunities? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
“What I am about to say is true. But under this system we are not allowed to speak the truth… Lies are required to maintain political harmony… the Chinese regime is in a serious economic crisis – on the brink of bankruptcy… every province in China is Greece.” (emphasis added)
Larry Lang, Professor of Finance, Chinese University of Hong Kong
Widely Held Opinion about Emerging Markets has it that Asia in general, and China (with its 1.3 billion people) in particular, will be The Great Growth Engine, which prospers while the over-indebted U.S. and Eurozone languish in the Slough of Despond.
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Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Near-Term Low Approaching for S&P Stocks Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The next optimal target zone for the current downleg in the e-mini S&P 500 is 1155/50. This represents the 50% retracement support plateau of the entire up-leg from the Oct 4 low at 1068 to the Oct 27 high at 1289.25.
Right now, we are getting anecdotal evidence only that the internal power of the decline is dissipating somewhat, which is an initial warning signal that a meaningful near-term low is approaching.
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Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Stocks Bear Market Focus Point: The Nasdaq 100 Leaders’ Indices - Weighted Interpretations / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Below is just one example of what very basic careful comparative analysis, completely devoid of elaborate indicators and envelopes can tell you. The two charts below are just simple daily charts of the Nasdaq 100 Index. The $NDXE is equal weighted and the $NDX is a modified capitalization-weighted index. What is unique about the Nasdaq 100 Index is that as well as being a leaders’ index of 100 of the largest companies listed on US exchanges, they are also the only US composite indices that contain no finance stocks at all. None.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
We are at a Critical Juncture for Stocks and Bonds / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
"Can I be honest with you?"
I hate it when people ask me that. As if I’m going to respond, “No, lie to me.”
But the truth is, it’s usually a preface that suggests we’re not going to want to hear what we’re about to be told.
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Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Stock Market Making Lower Lows / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
There are a few global stock market indices that have broken below the recent early October fall lows. This is not a good sign. The most important of these is Japan, which I wrote about a few days ago. Here is a 6 month daily candlestick chart of the $NIKK Japanese stock market index thru today's close:
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Wednesday, November 23, 2011
How to Trade Using Stock Market Sentiment and the Holiday Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The months of November and December are the second strongest back to back months for the financial markets. Many traders and investors use this time of the year to reap big gains as they close the year out. The fact that most traders and investors are sitting in cash and underweight stocks in their portfolio’s leaves me to believe a Santa Clause rally is just around the corner. Reason being is everyone has cash on hand to buy stocks because they are selling their positions in this pullback we are in right now. I know traders well enough, they will buy back into the market trying to catch the holiday rally in the coming weeks.
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Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Stock Market Set to Start the Strongest Part of the Current Decline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
-- The VIX came to rest today at the bottom trendline of the diamond formation, above intermediate-term trend support at 31.63. It remains on a buy signal and may be poised for a breakout above the top of the diamond formation. This is a bullish reversal formation that has the potential 13% failure rate and an average target of approximately 50.00 in the VIX.
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Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Robert Prechter on the importance of Keeping Your Money Safe in a Stocks Bear Market Environment / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
In an interview with the Mind of Money, Robert Prechter stresses the importance of keeping your money safe in this bear market environment. According to the Elliott wave model, we have entered a critical phase in the market. This 3-minute video clip will help you to prepare for what's ahead.
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