Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, December 22, 2024
Stock Market Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
We are now into the time frame for a santa rally that runs from Monday into early January, 2024 has been another great year for AI tech stocks whilst most focus on the indices nothing burgers be it the S&P or Nasdaq (which I don't pay any attention to).
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Sunday, December 22, 2024
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Why Do We Rely On News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
Well, that was quite the eventful week. We had a Fed announcement, and all the market geniuses were quick to attribute the cause of the 3% decline to the Fed announcement. However, this is nothing more than a foolish and very superficial perspective, which evidences their lack of true understanding of how our markets work.
As I have said often, while news can act as a catalyst for a market move, the substance of the news is really irrelevant in determining the direction of the move. In fact, we have seen many moves through market history which have not even been supported by the news. In fact, in1988 there was a study conducted by Cutler, Poterba, and Summers entitled “What Moves Stock Prices,” which supports my perspective.
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Friday, December 20, 2024
THEY DON'T RING THE BELL AT THE CRPTO MARKET TOP! / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Latest Market Brief 20th Dec 2024
Crypto's are dumping, Bitcoin $94k, Solana $180, Doge $0.28, AVAX $34, COIN $260 can be very enticing to buy the dip for the next FOMO rally but I have always considered crypto's to be fairy dust, easy come easy go, so this is a warning that the TOP for crypto's could be in, so as I've been saying in the comments I would be very wary of buying the dip as the plan since the Trump pump began has been to disinvest from crypto's. Those who have followed should by now should have banked profits, I mean my exit strategy in recent articles could not have made things any clearer of what I am doing.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Stock Market Expected Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So far we are not getting the dip in the S&P, to the contrary as mentioned earlier the S&P traded to a new all time high which lowers the probability for an October dip getting down to anywhere the target of 5200, instead the S&P correcting down to 5500 looks doable from where we currently stand. Note the operative word "correction". Octobers tend to be one of the most volatile months of the year as does August and we saw what happened during August. a huge spike down that reversed to see the month close up, none of which will be visible in the monthly seasonal data. So whilst it might not seem like it right now with the S&P trading at 5740 as I write, October volatility is likely to see the S&P trade down by about 5% targeting a spike to below 5500 during the next few weeks which given the timing of will likely result in a DOWN OCTOBER, following which we will be set for that rip the face off the bears rally to well over 6000 during January 2025 as per trend forecast.
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Monday, December 16, 2024
Tesla $460, Bitcoin $107k, S&P 6080 - The Pump Continues! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Latest Market Brief 16th Dec 2024
Tesla $460 - I sold a big chunk today now down to 11% invested, 2.7% of portfolio, Fomo mania in msm and twit land, I"ll probably have sold 80% by 500! I remember when I bought huge at $166 those who followed were soon crying because it continued to fall to a low of $139, that's the thing, one does not want to try and buy THE low because you won't! At THE low you'll think THE low is much lower. Now folk wish they could turn back time and buy at $166 just as I said they will wish they could in the not too distant future. How to time travel will be a topic in my next article ��
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Stock Market Risk to the Upside! S&P 7000 Forecast 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just so that we are all reading from the same page - A Correction is a Correction is a Correction, 5500 vs 5750 is not even 5%! Primary focus is to remain exposed to the AI mega-trend stocks and seek opps to accumulate as they come along, look at what happened to Chinese AI tech stocks!
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Stock Market 2025 Mid Decade Year / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Statistically 2025 is expected to be the stronger of 2022,2023 and 2024, which again is supportive of the thesis that 2025 will see a gain of between 20% and 30% and probably nearer to 30%, i.e. a rip the face of the bears rally where those sat on the sidelines throw caution to the wind and FOMO in propelling the S&P well beyond 7000 towards 8000
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock market performance based on whether the President is Democrat or Republican.
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A strong September during a strong year that has only seen 1 down month (April), so what does this rare pattern suggest could come next?
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Friday, December 13, 2024
What Does a Strong Sept Mean for the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
September is seasonally the weakest month of the year, and has been so for 3 years in a row until September 2024 resulting in the unexpected up closing month, though there are too factors that should be obvious -
1. Three years down in a row increases the probability for an UP September, a little more attention to detail should have flagged this as being probable.
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Is Trump the Most Pro-Stock Market President Ever? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
According to CNBC on November 11, "Trump Is the Most Pro-Stock Market President in History." "The stock market could enjoy a bigger boost from President-elect Donald Trump than any previous administration," says the author of Stocks for the Long Run.
This belief is producing some spectacular risk-on biases. Here's a November 22 headline from Bloomberg that highlights investors' willingness to embrace his supposed influence on the futures markets: "Trump Set to Supercharge Options Boom by Retail Investors."
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Interest Rates, Unemployment and the SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Donald_W_Dony
December's Federal Reserve meeting next week suggests a 25bps rate reduction. Traders are consolidating bets on a 90% chance of a cut by year-end. Still, there are concerns that price expansion will be sticky to lower. Core inflation remains unchanged at 3.30%. In addition, upside tariff threats and tax cuts magnified inflation risks. Both policies result in expansionary pressures.
The bond market and the US dollar illustrate the balancing act of persistent inflationary pressure and keeping interest rates low to support the economy (Chart 1).
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Sunday, December 08, 2024
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
S&P is up 27.5% YTD! This after a 24% gain for 2023, this is NOT NORMAL, we are in early stage FOMO MANIA! Further evidence for which one only need look at crypto's as BTC up 130% YTD broke above $100k trading to $104k before the exchanges FLASH CRASHED leveraged longs out of their positions and now trading back over $100k.
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Monday, December 02, 2024
Stock & Crypto Markets Going into December 2024 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my most recent market brief -
Stock & Crypto's Market Brief 1st Dec 2024 - (6pm UK Time)
Folk keep messaging me that Bitcoins down, Solana's down, Doge is down and if they are now a good buy, I reply "dude you're a year late to the party!"
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Friday, November 29, 2024
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So far the election year seasonal trend has had 4 misses out of 9 months, so on it's own as is the case with most individual pieces of analysis has been a coin flip as to whether any particular month will follow the seasonal pattern or not.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2024
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Folk keep messaging me that Bitcoins down, Solana's down, Doge is down and if they are now a good buy, I reply "dude you're a year late to the party!"
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Thursday, November 21, 2024
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Donald Trump election win sends bitcoin, crypto and stock markets into a euphoric high on prospects for the forthcoming money printing binge. We may all be getting high on the pump right now but you all know it's not going to end well for most, those who FOMO into the highs, no matter how much we try game this, it's going to be a tough balancing act between how much we manage to take off the casino tables before the music stops and the SHTF!
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Thursday, November 21, 2024
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
As the market has now struck the upper end of my long-term target set many years ago, it seems many have embraced this bull market, to the extent that they see no reason for it to end. However, that is usually the time one has to pay attention for the potential for it to come an end.
The last 25 years have only reinforced the common perspective that the market “always comes back.” Whether we are speaking about the manner in which investors have been trained in a Pavlovian fashion to believe in the omnipotent power of the Fed or whether we are speaking about the manner in which the market has always come back stronger after each larger drop seen over the last 25 years, there is one thing that has become a certainty in the market: Buy and hold is the ONLY way to go.
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Thursday, November 21, 2024
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: EWI
"It's going to make 2008 look like child's play," says ElliottWave Trader's Avi Gilburt when discussing the precarious balance sheets of U.S. banks with Elliott Wave International's Robert Prechter.
In the just-released webinar "A Fireside Market Chat with Robert Prechter & Avi Gilburt," Gilburt shares the story of his year-and-a-half study of U.S. banks and said what he discovered "is going to shock people." You can learn the disturbing details of his findings by accessing the webinar for free.
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Monday, November 18, 2024
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
President Donald Trump Win Pumps the markets, Bitcoin, Crypto's and stocks higher, most missed the Trump win due to MSM propaganda and echo chambers, of course after the fact it was obvious to everyone that Trump would win, yeah sure it was, the trick is to say and act on it BEFORE the event not a week AFTER it happens! One can't place bets on Trump to win AFTER it's happened!
Donald Pump winning has been my consistent view ALL YEAR, where I iterated why Kamala Harris taking over from lost all of his marbles Biden was not going to make any difference to the outcome in fact regardless of the polls that consistently gave Harris a lead the exact opposite would be true, the election result was not even going to be close, a landslide win for Trump was incoming that would pump the markets, send crypto assets and stocks including Tesla to the moon so that is where the big bets should be.
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