Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Saturday, March 22, 2014
Stock Market Record Intraday High Fades to a Loss / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short: The Nikkei was closed today for the Vernal Equinox, having posted a 0.72% loss for the week, but the Shanghai Composite soared 2.72%, erasing what would otherwise have been a fractional weekly loss. When the US markets opened, most European indexes had been trading higher and would close with modest gains, the EURO STOXX 50 up 0.25%.
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Saturday, March 22, 2014
S&P 500 New High....Then Bye Bye.....Froth Absolutely Annihilated.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
This was a day to remember for many. So many will never play the game again after today as those who lived by the sword clearly died by it today. There were losses that most won't be able to overcome from a mental perspective alone. The moves from the highs to the lows on many stocks are just beyond stunning. Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) and Priceline.com Incorporated (PCLN), just to name two out of more than one could count. The losses are not just from today, because these froth stocks have been in their own little bear market of late.
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Saturday, March 22, 2014
U.S. Stock Market Swimming Against an Ominous Global Tide / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
After an unusual blow-out 2013, the U.S. stock market has gone nowhere so far this year.
Down for January, back up for February, and sideways for March, the Dow is 1% below its record high reached at the end of the year, and thus down 1% for 2014 so far, while the S&P 500 is up just one percent.
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Friday, March 21, 2014
Stock Market Crash Fractal - Deja Vu 2000 All Over Again / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
The Crash Fractal is still alive and well in the Dow. Its peak was December 31.
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Friday, March 21, 2014
Potential Flash Crash - SPX Reveals its Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
To the left is a more complete explanation of what I had illustrated last night. That suggests Minor Wave 3 of Intermediate Wave (3) may be underway.
Granted, the Pre-market shows a possible probe above 1873.49, but I think the algos are keeping the market in line for the harvest of the index options at the open. The SPX may let go at the open for an approximate 63 point plunge. I am basing that projection on the wave relationship where Wave 3 of (1) is 2.625 times the size of Wave 1 of(1)…
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Thursday, March 20, 2014
Stock Market Broadening Wedge Trendline May Break Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
SPX has declined in the Pre-market to near 1856.00. That was expected as a high probability, since it had closed beneath mid-Cycle support/resistance at 1861.54. A break of the lower trendline of the Broadening Wedge at 1850.00 gives us the confirmed sell signal of that formation.
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Thursday, March 20, 2014
Stocks Extend Short-Term Consolidation Following FOMC Statement Release / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: neutral
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Thursday, March 20, 2014
Another Stock Market FOMC Mini-Drama / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short: Today’s market provided a familiar drama for FOMC Wednesdays. The S&P 500 traded in a narrow range from the opening bell to the 2 PM release of the latest FOMC statement. The index immediately dropped about ten points with the not-surprising statement of another $10B cut to the asset purchase program. But the more dramatic plunge came during Chair Yellen’s press conference, when she quantified the “considerable time” after the end of QE to the start of Fed Fund rate hikes as “around six months.” The index promptly fell to its -1.17% intraday low at 3:10 PM. Subsequent buying essentially halved the loss to 0.61% at the close.
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Thursday, March 20, 2014
Fed Says Goodbye To QE....If...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Data dependent. If the economy continues to recover, Ms. Yellen says that she'll continue the tapering until it's at zero. She said that likely in the fall the QE program will be over completely. No more liquidity. No more free lunch. October is the hoped for end to all that free cash. The market's reaction was a big yawn at a time when it had every right to crash lower based on daily and weekly MACD's. Why is it having trouble falling?
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Thursday, March 20, 2014
The Stock Market and Pessimistic Press Headlines / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Do you remember the following headline from the fall of 2011?
"In the Absence of a Credible Plan We Will Have A Global Financial Meltdown in Two or Three Weeks" [states] Dr. Robert Shapiro, Advisor to the IMF, Zero Hedge, October 6, 2011
How about these headlines, from June 2012?
[Spanish] Bankia Customers Pull Out Over 1 Billion Euros, Reuters, May 17 '12
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Wednesday, March 19, 2014
The Best Play for a Scary Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Michael A. Robinson writes: U.S. blue chips suffered their biggest drop in five weeks recently because the latest round of economic reports are fostering a lot of uncertainty about the prospects for continued global growth.
For most investors, it's been that kind of year.
But I continue to believe that the tech sector - especially here in the U.S. - still has a lot of fuel left in its tank.
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Wednesday, March 19, 2014
Another S&P 500 Gain Puts a Record Stock Market High in Easy Range / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short: Before the US markets opened, Japan’s Nikkei had snapped a wicked four-day selloff with a 0.94% advance, and the European indexes were in the green. The EURO STOXX 50 would later close with a 0.81% gain. The S&P 500 rallied during the opening hour and traded the rest of the day in a fairly narrow range to its 0.72% final tally. The index is now less than six points from its record high set seven sessions ago.
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Wednesday, March 19, 2014
Stock Market SPX Nearing a Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
SPX completed a 77.7% retracement of its initial decline in exactly 12.9 hours today. The A-B-C appears to be complete. Today’s experience is a “déjà vu all over again” of Putin’s first press conference. We know how that ended.
The Hi-Lo ended the day at 225, 20 points above its mid-Cycle resistance at 205.00. That lifts the sell signal with this indicator, but we expected that. Give it another day, since things can change that quickly.
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Tuesday, March 18, 2014
The DJIA Stock Market Index Is A Hoax / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index is the only stock market index that covers both the second and the third industrial revolution. Calculating share indexes such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and showing this index in a historical graph is a useful way to show which phase the industrial revolution is in. Changes in the DJIA shares basket, changes in the formula and stock splits during the take-off phase and acceleration phase of industrial revolutions are perfect transition-indicators. The similarities of these indicators during the last two revolutions are fascinating, but also a reason for concern. In fact the graph of the DJIA is a classic example of fictional truth, a hoax.
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Tuesday, March 18, 2014
Stock Market Fools Bears Again.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Just when everything was set up for a big fall lower after last week's action, the market fools them again with a big gap up today that held for the most part. I can't blame them for thinking the market would fall hard today, especially with all the turmoil going on the Ukraine. Personally, I thought the odds were against the market today. But that goes to show you that until you get the necessary technical breakdown below key support, you don't venture to the dark side too soon. It can cause unnecessary pain. We're not even close to that breakdown level, or the key 50-day exponential moving average on the S&P 500, currently at 1832. We got close after Friday's close, but the bears could not find the necessary follow through today with a big gap down, which would have put 1850 resistance in the rear view mirror.
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Tuesday, March 18, 2014
Investors Follow the Money to Asia's Tech Hub / Stock-Markets / Asian Economies
China's slower economic data points and a surplus in copper and iron ore drove many commodities lower this week, while gold rose. In the short term, until the copper and iron ore surplus is liquidated, or absorbed at a slower pace, the base metals market will likely be sloppy.
As the second-largest economy in the world and a huge driver of commodities demand, it's not surprising China provoked such a significant response from world markets. Interestingly, most of the media thought it was geopolitical fears from Ukraine that chopped up the market and lifted gold.
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Monday, March 17, 2014
SPX in a Position to Decline Further / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
SPX futures tumbled 10 points at the open on Sunday, but were rescued by the JPY carry. There seems to be some confusion on how the Pre-market reads this morning. It shows the SPX up 10 points, but that appears to be from the Sunday open. The actual value is only 1843.00…maybe on the assumption that no one would read the news over the weekend.
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Monday, March 17, 2014
Stock Market Uncertainty Following Recent Decline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: neutral
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, March 17, 2014
S&P500: Weekly Reversal Candle Is Pointing For A Deeper Retracement / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The markets were in risk-off mode during the Asian trading hours as respond to Crimea's votes results. If situation would get worse then be aware of even lower levels on S&P while Crude oil and Natural gas could find a support.
On the Weekly chart of the S&P500 we have seen a bearish close at the end of the last week that erased all of the gains from a week earlier. This can also be an important evidence for a bearish case in the following days.
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Saturday, March 15, 2014
Stock Market S&P Losing 1850.....Barely.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
All of the key indexes in the stock market are heading lower now. A bad week for sure, with the S&P 500 now joining the Dow in the red for the year by nearly half a percent. The Dow down nearly 4%. The Nasdaq is now barely green for the year. Lots of whipsaw thus far in 2014, but it appears the bears are now slowly but gradually taking hold of things. They are still mostly gutless, and are still missing the one necessary ingredient that would turn things clearly their way, and that's to establish a massive gap down that runs lower all day closing at or near the lows.
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