Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, November 29, 2018
The Fed Will Probably Stop Hiking Rates in 2019. What’s Next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Well that was quick. Less than 2 months ago Fed chairman Powell said that interest rates were “far below neutral” (implying that rates needed to be hiked much more). After the stock market has fallen 10%, Powell now thinks that “interest rates are close to being neutral” (implying that fewer rate hikes are needed).
The stock market rallied on this news.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
Stock Market Santa Rally Still a GO to Dow 27,000? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Virtually immediately after I posted last weeks Dow trend forecast updatethat we were a GO for the Santa rally, the Dow decided to take a tumble by falling to a low for the week of 24,285 a sizeable 1100 point drop since my last update. So is the the Santa rally still a go or has fundamental damage been done for the prospects for a Santa rally?
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Watch This Picture As Asset Prices Fall / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: F_F_Wiley
“It is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics.” —Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements
In May, we queued up the b-side of a record describing America’s balance sheet—we looked at the mix of lenders instead of the usual “a-side” analysis of the borrowers.
We showed that the balance sheet includes four types of lenders—banks, the Fed, foreigners and prior domestic saving—as in the updated chart below. And the “prior domestic saving” category, since you asked, is mostly households, pension funds and insurance companies investing in bonds and bond funds.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Four Reasons Why a US China Trade Deal Isn’t Coming This Weekend… / Stock-Markets / Protectionism
By: Graham_Summers
Stock markets are rallying today on the belief that somehow the US and China will sign a trade deal at the upcoming G-20 meeting.
Investors are buying this narrative despite the facts that…
1) The Trump administration has already admitted that a deal is highly UN-likely.
2) The Trump administration has also admitted that the next round of tariffs (25%) will hit in January (meaning no deal by then).
3) The US and China have yet to reach ANY kind of remote agreement on anything. Indeed, they don’t even appear to be openly negotiating at the moment.
4) Large-scale trade deals that resolve decades-old structural issues between the two largest economies in the world do NOT get resolved by a 1-on-1 face to face meeting that lasts a few hours.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Are We Approaching A "Once-In-A-Century" Type Stock Market Event? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
As many of you know, I will often read articles written by others -- along with the comments -- to gauge the overall sentiment of the market from an anecdotal perspective. During one of my recent perusals of articles, I noticed a quote of the following statement by Sir John Templeton:
"For 100 years optimists have carried the day in U.S. stocks. Even in the dark 70's, many professional money managers, and many individual investors too, made money in stocks, especially those of smaller companies.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
When Will the Stocks Bull Market End? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As we approach the final month of this year, it’s worth reflecting on our thoughts and actions over the past year. Reflection is how you become a better investor and trader.
I posted the following chart in December 2017. Interesting how this year’s max drawdown is pretty much inline with the average drawdown of -12%
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Tuesday, November 27, 2018
The Yield Curve Will Invert Soon. What’s Next for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
December is almost here, and some traders are looking forward to the Santa Claus Rally. We demonstrated that seasonality is not consistent. Hence, seasonality factors are of secondary importance.
Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.
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Monday, November 26, 2018
Stock Market Sentiment Improves - Upward Reversal or Just Another Bounce? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks slightly extended their downtrend on Friday despite a long-holiday-weekend shortened trading session. The S&P 500 index traded closer to its late October low. Will it reverse upwards off the support level?
The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.5-0.7% on Friday, as investors' sentiment remained bearish following the recent declines. The S&P 500 index fell slightly below its Tuesday's local low. It got closer to the late October low of 2,603.54. The index is currently trading 10.6% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.5% on Friday.
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Monday, November 26, 2018
Trading Charts and Setups: Chances of a FED Interest Rate Hike Falling / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: FXCOT
As equity markets make a topping formation and US 10 year yield retest 3% level, the chances of a FED hike in 2019 is declining. Govt pressure will build up on Powell into 2019 and we believe this will damage FED ability to freely raise rates even if they wish to. We highlight a few key charts and setups to watch out for as you start a new trading week.
2018 has been a difficult years for every single asset class. The mutual fund industry is bleeding and hedge fund managers are struggling to stay afloat. Traditional investment models do not work any more. This is a year in which both bonds and stocks fell together. Traditional models work on shifting money from one asset class to another. However this year, all classes bled. This year, set apart the genius managers from the ordinary. Fxcot trading system which is primarily a EURUSD, USDJPY trading system has made over 90% this year which is truly incredible given the performance of hedge funds.
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Monday, November 26, 2018
These 'Facts' About The Stock Market Will Continue To Get You Whipsawed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
I have been getting such a chuckle from the market of late.
As the market made its way down to our 2600 target region towards the end of October, more and more market participants and analysts became more and more bearish. In fact, the bearishness was palpable as we approached 2600SPX.
However, our analysis suggested that the market should bottom in the 2600SPX region, and begin a corrective rally, which then topped at 2815SPX.
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Monday, November 26, 2018
What Is the Stock Market Trying to Tell Us? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, co-founders of Seabridge Gold, explore what’s next for the stock market and how that will affect gold.
First and foremost, valuations are too high. Third-quarter results have been disappointing. Investors are realizing that sales and earnings cannot grow fast enough to keep the market at record valuations.
Second, the stock market is telling us that its advance has been too narrow. . .too dependent upon a handful of stocks driven higher by the herding effect of passive ETF and index investing where the winners win more because they are winners, boosted by their celebrity status than fundamentals. These market leaders have now been rounded up and summarily shot.
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Monday, November 26, 2018
Stock Market Approach Neckline / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
VIX advanced during the short holiday week, making a new high and higher low, closing above its weekly Cycle Top at 20.63. Note the Head & Shoulders formation which may give it more impetus in the next week. VIX is also positioned for a triply-indicated surge of strength through mid-December.
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Monday, November 26, 2018
Stock Market Short-term Panic! Santa Rally Still a GO to Dow 27,000? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Virtually immediately after I posted last weeks Dow trend forecast update that we were a GO for the Santa rally, the Dow decided to take a tumble by falling to a low for the week of 24,285 a sizeable 1100 point drop since my last update. So is the the Santa rally still a go or has fundamental damage been done for the prospects for a Santa rally?
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Monday, November 26, 2018
Most Stock Market’s Around the World are Falling. What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. stock market has made a 61.8% bounce and now retested its lows, which is the standard pattern for these fast 10%+ corrections. “Drop, pop, and slop”
Now that the stock market has almost retested its exact October 2018 lows, what’s next?
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Sunday, November 25, 2018
Stock Market New Low in Store? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – bearish correction which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Friday, November 23, 2018
U.S. Stock Market’s Volume is Low Around Thanksgiving / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Happy Thanksgiving! It’s important to remember that this week’s volume is very light, so don’t read too much into price action. The price can be easily pushed around by a few big players.
Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.
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Friday, November 23, 2018
XLY – Don’t Count the American Consumer Out Yet / Stock-Markets / Retail Sector
By: ElliottWaveForecast
The U.S. Consumer Measured Via the XLY
“The U.S. economy is the global economic driver. And within the U.S. economy, the U.S. consumer is the global driver.” James P. Gorman
We’re Entering In Negative Territory for 2018
The stock market (measured via the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average) has officially erased all of its 2018 gains. I can see from the headlines like the one pictured below from The Drudge Report that there’s certainly starting to be a bit of panic in the air.
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Thursday, November 22, 2018
China Stock Market Preparing New Elliott Wave Bullish Cycle / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: ElliottWaveForecast
The trade war between USA & China had led to a global fear around the stock market and causing a mid-term “bear market” in China which lost 30% since the start of 2018. The latest plan is that the two leaders US President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping would meet for dinner on December 1 immediately after the G20 meeting in the Argentine capital Buenos Aires.
Trump says US is ‘doing extremely well’ with China but deal not done yet. Therefore the next meeting could be critical for this ongoing war trade talk and its result will have important effect around the market.
At ElliottWave Forecast, we believe the market is ruled by technical aspect and the news is an after-fact event to drive the market into the pre-determined direction. Therefore, understanding the Nature of the Market is key for traders to stay in the right side and follow a clear path which have nothing to do with Fundamentals or events.
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Thursday, November 22, 2018
Roaring Stock Market Rally Coming! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: FXCOT
Stocks have been under selling pressure for the lst 8 weeks and yet the indices continue to be above the key support levels. By most measures the U.S. economy is in excellent health. Yet stocks are sinking, yields on corporate bonds are rising and commodity prices are tumbling—all typical precursors of a slowdown or recession. There are a few reasons which we can immediately forsee. First, while the U.S. is cruising a wave of fiscal stimulus, growth in the rest of the world is slowing. That’s creating problems for companies that do export business. Second, FED is set on a rigid path of raising rates, tightening conditions and reducing balance sheet.
Given the simulataneous actions of ECB and BoJ, we believe has fared way beyond what could have been a much sharper decline. However we are just about 15% from the highs seen this year.
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Thursday, November 22, 2018
When Stock Market Computer Herds Hit Exits / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Doug_Wakefield
"In a 2010 study of the 2010 Flash Crash, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission found that high frequency traders substantially increased volatility during the event and accelerated the crash...The Australian Securities and Investments Commission, the stock regulator in Australia, found in a 2012 study that during volatile markets high frequency traders reduce their liquidity supply and increase their liquidity demands....The Bank of Int'l Settlements looked at foreign exchange markets and concluded in a 2011 study that high frequency traders exacerbate volatility in stressed markets... The UK Gov't Office for Science published a large 2012 study of capital markets around the world and concluded that HFT/AT may cause instabilities in financial markets in specific circumstances.... High Frequency Trading: A Bibliography of Evidence -Based Research, March 2015