Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We believe the US stock market is nearing upper resistance.  We still believe the US stock market will eventually attempt to move about the psychological levels of 3000 for the S&P, 30,000 for the Dow and 340 SPY.  This move to new all-time highs will likely result in a ”scouting party” type of price pattern where price attempts to identify new resistance, slightly above the psychological levels, then reverses back below these levels to retest support.

Our continued belief that a large pennant/flag formation is unfolding has not changed. As technical analysts, we need to wait for the new price peak form before we can identify where the upper channel of the pennant/flag formation is trending. We would urge traders to be conscious that any outside move in the stock markets as a very limited upside potential from current levels. The SPY is trading at 293 and we believe upper resistance will be found slightly above 300. Thus, we really have about a $7 or $8 move to the upside from current levels – only about 3% to 4% more room to the upside.

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Small Cap Stocks May Lead A Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We believe a unique Pennant/Flag formation is setting up in the US stock markets. We believe the Small Cap sector may provide a better technical reference to the price breakout we are expecting in late August or early September than the mid or large-cap sectors.  The charts tell a very interesting story when comparing the different sectors to the SPY.

As most of you are well aware, the very deep selloff between October and December 2018 prompted a low price pivot point that most technical analysts are using as a reference to support. What we find interesting is that these Small Caps have really failed to mount any type of price recovery.  We believe this is because of the continued capital shift where foreign investors and institutional investors are piling into mid-cap and large-cap equities chasing dividends and safety.  The small-cap index chart may provide the best technical reference for the pennant formation and eventual breakout move.

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Stock Market Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Well, that’s that.

The markets surged on the Fed announcement of NO rate cuts because the market now believes the Fed is GUARANTEED to make a MASSIVE cut in July.

The S&P 500 (blue line in the chart below) hit our upside target for this rally, catching up the breadth (black line in the chart below). We might finish the week around here, but going forward anyone going long is effectively “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.”

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Is the Stock Market’s Volatility About to Spike? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

By some measures, the stock market’s volatility is starting to go up with the stock market itself. Does this mean that a short term spike in volatility (and short term decline in stocks) is impending? Today’s headlines:

1. VIX and stocks
2. Volatility of volatility
3. Small caps indecision
4. Fed day
5. Oil’s plunge last week
6. Gold miners are on fire

Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As our research team continues to pour over the charts and look for any signs of direction regarding tomorrow’s Fed news, we put together a couple the charts that may highlight some expectations and in at what the markets may do the rest of the week. 

The expectations that the US Federal Reserve may maintain rates at current levels or potentially drop rates by a quarter percent leaves an open interpretation as to how the global markets will digest this news. Obviously, leaving rates unchanged would be the most benign action the Fed could take. Often though, the markets interpret this as a sign of weakness. Whereas a quarter percent decrease in the US fed rates would suggest that the Fed is preparing for future economic weakness in the US and potential global economy, yet investors may consider this as a very bullish reaction to the Fed.

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market has been trading within a very small range since last week, and volume has been notably low. Today’s headlines:

1. Stock market’s small range
2. Stock market’s low volume
3. High stock:bond ratio
4. The S&P’s long term correlations
5. “A key manufacturing gauge just saw its biggest one month collapse in 18 years”
6. Banks underperforming

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The Technical Traders Ltd has identified a unique price to volatility relationship between the SP500 and VIX index.  The calculations required to compute the VIX index are composed of a number of factors. That final value of the VIX index is reported on an annualized basis. This means that VIX index as already internalized the past 12 months price volatility into the current VIX levels.

We believe this increased VIX volatility expectation could be muting future VIX spikes and trading systems focus on the VIX Index.  The fact that the VIX as likely to internalized that large October to December 2018 price rotation and will not move beyond this price range until well after April or May of 2020 creates a unique problem for VIX systems and analysts. In short, the VIX has normalized a 20% price volatility expectation, or more, and will not reduce this expectation until well after April or May of 2020.

Monday, June 17, 2019

S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks continued to fluctuate on Friday, as investors awaited this week’s Wednesday’s Fed Rate Decision release. The S&P 500 index reached the new local high on Tuesday and then it came back below the 2,900 mark. So was it a downward reversal or just correction before another leg up?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.1-0.5% on Friday, as they extended their short-term consolidation. The S&P 500 index gained more than 180 points from its previous week’s Monday’s local low recently. It is currently 2.3% below its May the 1st record high of 2,954.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.5% on Friday.

Monday, June 17, 2019

Stock Market Rally Faltering? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question.

Intermediate trend –  The intermediate-term correction continues  to unfold.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, June 17, 2019

Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

On this day, celebrating fathers and all they do for families and their children, we thought we would share some really interesting research regarding the next six months trading expectations in the NASDAQ and what it means for your trading account.  One element of our research involves data mining and searching for historical price correlation models.  These types of elements help us identify when the price is acting normally or abnormally.

We like to focus on the NQ (NASDAQ) because its tech-heavy and is where a lot of the Capital Shift (money from other countries is flowing into as a safe/best asset class at this time).

Below, We are going to Geek-Out a little and sharing raw data values from one of our data mining utilities highlighting each month’s historical activity in the NQ.

Monday, June 17, 2019

Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

Bears are saying “the S&P today looks just like 2007” while bulls are saying “the S&P today looks just like 2016”. In reality, the S&P today is most like 1967 (not quite what you would expect).

Various technical factors suggest that the medium term is bullish.

The short term is mixed, and such a politically-driven market environment certainly does not add to one’s confidence about making short term predictions. Focus on the data and facts. Don’t trade the news.

1. Fundamentals (long term): no significant U.S. macro deterioration, but the long term risk:reward doesn’t favor bulls.
2. Technicals (medium term): mostly bullish
3. Technicals (short term): mixed

Thursday, June 13, 2019

US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we’ve been warning over the past few weeks and months, the current price rotation in the US stock market is very much related to the strength of the US Dollar and the continued Capital Shift that is taking place as trade issues and currency valuations drive investors into the US equity and debt markets as protection against risk.  We talk about some of these new Super-Cycles starting and how we can take advantage of them in this new guide.

The US Dollar stalled today after a recent price decline from just above $98 to a current level near $96.60.  Over the past 15+ months, the US Dollar has risen from lows near $88 to highs near $98 – an 11.2% price rally.  Meanwhile, many other foreign currencies have collapsed over this same span of time.

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Technical Analysis Shows Aug/Sept Stock Market Top Pattern Should Form / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We have been pouring over the data and currently believe our earlier prediction of a July/August 2019 market top should be revised to an Aug/Sept 2019 expected market top pattern.  The following research posts we authored recently suggested a top may form in July/Aug 2019 and believe this critical top formation would form at new all-time highs.  We still believe this is possible regarding the price predictions, yet we believe the price top will now form near the end of August or early September after an extended Pennant/Flag formation is completed.

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

FTSE 100: A Top European Index / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market

By: Justin_Weinger

Get the lowdown on the FTSE 100 in this news article from Vestle. Find out why many people including traders and bankers follow its every move. 

European Indices: Read all about it

Every morning in London, it’s the same: amongst the throngs of suited men and women flooding out of the tube stations, you can’t help but notice a light pink bundle tucked under an arm or sticking out of a tote bag. Get a little closer and you’ll see the title, broadly displayed in a classic serif font: FINANCIAL TIMES. Or “FT” for short. This is where anyone and everyone who deals with money gets the inside scoop on market activity, investment performance, and how such things as geopolitical factors and monetary policy can affect them.

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Stock Market Storm Clouds on the Horizon / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger discusses macroeconomic factors and his trading decisions. I have had more than a few emails asking me what I think of the current set-up for stocks, bonds, currencies and gold since everything began to re-inflate a few days ago and without going off on a literary tangent, it is obvious that the banks are absolutely freaking out over the declining high-end real estate numbers coming in from not only the money centers but also the fringe regions. Mortgages, the bulk of the loan portfolios for the global banking industry, are only as sound as the collateral upon which they are hypothecated (secured) and if you go back to the sub-prime crisis of 2008, the big revenue drivers for the banks were the sheer volume of homes being financed. Like every masterfully run Ponzi, the Greater Fool Theory is allowed to sustain itself only as long as the banks and the regulators all agree that there are "no limits" and with that, "no rules."

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

What If Stocks Are Wrong About Interest Rate Cuts? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Stocks have now cleared the all-important level of 2,900 on the S&P 500. The index just peeked above critical resistance (top red line in the chart below).

Overbought and overextended, stocks are now due for a correction/ consolidation. It would be completely normal to see the S&P 500 fall to retest support at 2,850 here (blue line in the chart below).

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Trade Wars Propelling Stock Markets to New Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Submissions

The title may seem a contradictory in nature. Investors understand the current US administration better than many of the main stream media have been portraying. Trump administration will make sure markets will get well over 3000 points before he hits the campaign trail. A minor pull back in trade tensions is all that is needed.

Monday, June 10, 2019

How Can Stock Market Go Up When We’re Headed Towards a Recession? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The common assumption is that bonds are screaming RECESSION right now, while the stock market refuses to hear it. This isn’t entirely true. While the stock market’s long term risk:reward is certainly not bullish, the economic data suggests that a U.S. recession is not imminent.

Various technical factors also suggest that the medium term is still bullish.

And lastly, the biggest short term risk is still trade war news. If this week demonstrated anything, it is that you cannot trade by guessing the news. Focus on the data & facts.

Monday, June 10, 2019

US Stock Markets Rally Hard – Could Another Big Upside Leg Begin? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Closing out the first week in June 2019, the US stock market rallied hard from recent lows and prompted many traders/investors to rethink their future plans.  At the same time, Gold and Silver began a decent price rally of their own while Oil found support just above $50.  It certainly has been an interesting week for traders.  One that was full of incredible opportunity as many symbols rotated 6 to 12% or more over the past 10+ days.

The fact that Oil is finding support above $50 while Gold and Silver continue to rally suggests that fear may be entering the metals market while Oil may have found a temporary price bottom near $50 to $51.  Weakness in the US Dollar is also helping both Oil and Metals to push higher.  Our recent research suggests that the US Dollar will find support near $95 indicates the US Dollar may fall a bit further – pushing Oil and Metals a bit higher.

Monday, June 10, 2019

Stock Market Huge Cosmic Cluster Ahead: Buckle Up! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The cosmic cluster is June 10th-14/16-June 24th. June 10-18 sees a large drop to around 2668/70ish (especially after June 14). The 18th (Merc conj. Mars) is the midpoint of the next Bradley Jun 16-20 (last Bradley June 2-4). June 21 Neptune turns retrograde so we see a secondary low on the 20th right before OPEX (see Nov 23).  

The 19-20th sees a tag team cluster with Merc/Mars opposite Pluto: the first one Mars opp Pluto as an 'a' wave top on FED day and Mercury shores it up ('b') down on Thursday reversing into the Neptune retrograde Friday June OPEX, which could be up around 60 pts!!

June 23/24 (top on the 24th) revisits the problems we saw with Jupiter and Neptune (June 10/14-16) and down we go again especially after the G20 summit into July 1, a doozy of a drop as we hit a Jup/Sat secondary top that Saturday (works Friday) with a Sun sextile Uranus on Thursday (hopeful topping action before the summit?).