Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, January 01, 2013
Stock Market Bulls Back in Town? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Firstly I want to wish readers and members a happy New Year for 2013 and look forward to making more successful trades with members, even more than we did in 2012 as I think 2013 is going to start out with a bang, and if my long term ideas plan out the way they have so far, then we are going to be seeing some very large swings in both directions. What you saw this past week or so is nothing, I suspect we will be seeing moves like we saw in 2007-2008.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 01, 2013
Stocks Secular Bear Market, Slower Economic Growth Game Changer / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
We are 13 years into a secular bear market in the United States. The Nasdaq is still down 40% from its high, and the Dow and S&P 500 are essentially flat. European and Japanese equities have generally fared worse.
The average secular bear market in the US has been about 11 years, with the shortest to date being four years and the longest 20. Are we at the beginning of a new bull market or another seven years of famine? What sorts of returns should we expect over the coming years from US equities?
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Tuesday, January 01, 2013
Stock Market Hopeful of Fiscal Cliff Agreement..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
The stock market has been hoping for an agreement between both sides for quite some time. It began to look quite dismal for the prospects of getting something done. Neither side really seemed interested in doing what was right for the public but isn't that always the case. They probably still don't truly care, but there is an image and reputations at stake here, so it appears a program of some real substance will get done, one that actually includes both sides giving in some. Seems almost impossible to believe, but there is real hope that things will get done and done in a way where the public actually thinks it's not half bad. Never say there aren't any miracles. You are possibly witnessing one at this moment in time. If we get exactly what we need we should see higher prices in the stock market overall. Not straight up. Lots of head fakes up and down but overall higher. Let's see what we get over the next 24 hours and how the market responds to it.
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Tuesday, January 01, 2013
Happy End to the 2012 Stock Market Roller Coaster Ride / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Courtesy of Doug Short writes: Despite the lack of a vote on the Fiscal Cliff issues, the constant stream of breaking news, comments from congressional sources and assorted tweets kept the markets in an upward trend on this last day of 2012. The S&P 500 closed the day with a gain of 1.69% to finish the year up 13.41%, the best performance in three years.
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Monday, December 31, 2012
Your Four Best Financial Resolutions for 2013 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
Alexander Green writes: This is the time of year for making New Year’s resolutions. And I have four that are guaranteed to make your portfolio bigger, fatter and wider a year from now.
So listen up:
* Save more. All investment begins with saving. And unlike the performance of the stock market, saving is something that’s under your control. It will also have a significant impact in the long-term value of your portfolio. For example, let’s say you’ve accumulated a portfolio worth $100,000. If it compounds at no more than the long-term return of the S&P 500 – 11% a year – it will be worth $1,358,000 in 25 years.
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Monday, December 31, 2012
Stock Market Fiscal Cliff Meltdown Countdown / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
I'm not worried, are you?
Congress sure doesn't seem worried as they aren't even coming back to work until 11 am this morning with only 13 hours left until 2012 ends and all those horrible, nasty things kick in. Of course, those horrible, nasty things, in summary, amount to paying more taxes and spending less money – isn't that what we need to do if we are ever going to get serious about paying down our debts?
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Monday, December 31, 2012
Alasdair Macleod's Financial Markets Outlook for 2013 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
I have not faced the prospect of a new year with so much trepidation as when I contemplate what is in store for 2013. Systemic risks abound, which of themselves are not the main story, only milestones on the road to final currency destruction, unless governments somehow regain their senses.
To help understand the perils of 2013 I shall give them their background context first before listing them individually. No such list can be exhaustive or temporally sequenced, but all on it have the same root: the long-term accumulation of a burden of unsupportable debt.
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Monday, December 31, 2012
Themes for 2013 - Fiscal Cliff Follies, Gold Momentum, Economic Muddling Through / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
With the hoax of the Mayan ‘End of the World’ fantasy and the week of extreme materialistic consumerism behind us, we can now return our focus to the events of the day and what might come to pass as we enter 2013. Certainly, there are several issues at the forefront right now, but many of the biggest issues are being buried. As we transition from 2012 to 2013, let’s take a look at what are likely to be the main themes of 2013.
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Sunday, December 30, 2012
Stocks Bear Market Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The US market opened lower to start the week, continued lower for much of the holiday shortened week, and ended giving back all of last week’s gains. For the week the SPX/DOW -1.9%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.1%. Asian markets gained 1.8%, European markets lost 0.7%, and the DJ World index lost 0.7%. On the economic front positive reports continued to outnumber negative reports: 7 to 2. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, new/pending home sales, new home prices, the Chicago PMI, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: consumer confidence, and the monetary base. Next week the monthly Payrolls report, ISM and Auto sales. Best your week!
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Saturday, December 29, 2012
Market Asset Class Correlations Imply Swift Selling in Coming Days / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
For the week ending December 28, 2012, the SPX was down 1.9%, the Russell small caps were down 1.7% and the COMP was down 1.8%.
The model triggered short all indices in mid October. The move had not fully exhausted itself when a countertrend rally began the week of Thanksgiving. But the move was being profiled as countertrend based on the stress profile and therefore not the start of a new uptrend. That was confirmed this week when support levels failed to hold. And based on Friday's close a renewed short signal was issued for the Dow, SPX and COMP.
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Saturday, December 29, 2012
Stock Market Nervous...Everyone Is.... Falling Off the Fiscal Cliff? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
How can you blame people for feeling anxious about falling off the fiscal cliff? There are so many bad things that come from such an event should it play out. Taxes will rise. Corporate America will stop even the thought of hiring. Jobs will be lost. People will feel insecure, even if they still have a job. Spending by the public will decrease, probably quite dramatically. The economy would be dealing with an instant and devastating shock to the system. Recession would be upon us immediately. It goes on and on.
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Saturday, December 29, 2012
2012 - Year Of Living Dangerously In Review / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
On January 8 of this year I posted my annual prediction article for this year - 2012 – The Year of Living Dangerously. Now it's time to assess my complete and utter cluelessness when it comes to predicting things within a given time frame. Despite the fact that myself and everyone else acting like they know what lays ahead are proven wrong time and time again, we continue to make predictions about the future. It makes us feel like we have some control, when we don't. The world is too complex, too big, too corrupt, too lost in theories and delusions, and too dependent upon too many leaders with too few brains to be able to predict what will happen next. This is the time of year when all the "experts" will be making their 2013 predictions. I haven't seen too many of these experts going back and honestly assessing their 2012 predictions, which didn't happen.
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Friday, December 28, 2012
It’s Only a Fiscal Slope Not a Cliff! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
Why are Congress and the White House not panicked about the looming fiscal ‘cliff’? Why has the Dow pulled back only 2% rather than plunging 2,000 points as time to forge an agreement by year-end has foolishly dwindled down to just a couple of days, and odds of it happening have become remote?
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Friday, December 28, 2012
Rising Euro, Falling Dollar, Market Correlations Turned / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
This week has brought in some calm after recent declines in the precious metals sector. Everybody seems to be waiting for some more decisive moves (both in the markets and on the part of the government, as the “fiscal cliff” issue has not been resolved yet), but these are not very likely before the beginning of the New Year.
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Friday, December 28, 2012
Fiscal Cliffs Precede Fiscal Valleys / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
It is not the fall that kills us. It is the collision with the ground. It is not the ‘fiscal cliff’ that we should fear. It is the fiscal valley that lies beyond the fiscal cliff that will kill us. Can a fall from the cliff be prevented?
The answer is ‘no’. The ‘fiscal cliff’ is Fed Chairman Bernanke’s metaphor for the expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts. Congress must act to again extend the lower tax rates as they did previously or taxes rise starting in January of 2013. The fiscal cliff is therefore a tax increase on the American public. Get ready. The ground is approaching quickly.
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Friday, December 28, 2012
Stock Market SPX Support Cluster is Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
SPX broke through its cluster of supports this morning, testing Hourly Cycle Bottom at 1400.21. Having completed yet another impulse, it is now retracing back to the 50-day moving average at 1413.17. This level will be attacked, since the loss of the 50-day support is a major breakdown. Once that support is lost for a second time today, selling should resume shortly with a minimum decline to 1344.00. The next model support is the next round number in SPX…1300.00.
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Thursday, December 27, 2012
Last Ditch Fiscal Cliff Efforts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
This is much more exciting than Christmas. So exciting that President Obama and Congress have cut short their winter vacations to give us hope – right before they snatch it away again. Will it be a bad plan or no plan? I can hardly wait to find out…
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Thursday, December 27, 2012
Stock Market Cliff Limbo and Holiday Spending Confusion / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Courtesy of Doug Short writes: Christmas 2012 is now a memory and presumably congress and the president will be knuckling down to deal with the Cliff deadline, although the winter-weather flight cancellations may slow the process. Meanwhile, the market is biding its time. The S&P 500 opened fractionally higher and hit its intraday high, up 0.19%, in the first fifteen minutes of trading. The index then rolled over to its intraday low, off 0.72%, around 11:30 AM. The index then struggled its the low but buckled in the last hour of trading to a closing loss of 0.48%, the third consecutive finish in the red.
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Thursday, December 27, 2012
Stock Market Rally Fading....Nasdaq Leading Lower... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Nothing good to say if you're a bull. The fact that the fiscal cliff is hanging perilously over the markets head is pushing the bulls away from getting too involved. Who can really blame them? The market has nothing good fundamentally behind it, so the path of least resistance is lower, unless we get a resolution and fast. The market and many stocks within it are getting close to big breakdowns. Apple Inc. (AAPL) cannot bid and is trying to start a breakdown below 505. It's having lower and lower closes, and this is not good. No bid whatsoever. AAPL and its brothers must start behaving better to lead the Nasdaq higher. Stocks, such as Priceline.com Incorporated (PCLN), Google Inc. (GOOG), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), and Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG). There's no way to know just how bad things will get, but the overall action is negative, and will worsen ahead of the 31st, if the market feels nothing is going to get resolved.
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Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Stock Market All the "greater fools" are in. No one left to Buy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Last Thursday’s mini-flashcrash in the overnight market was a wake-up call for the longs. The reason is that it took the sale of only 700,000 ES contracts to force a “limit down” in the futures. Of course, there was quite a scurry to get the ES back above support before the open. Nevertheless, the selling in the first hour of the 21st brought the trading volume above any full day’s volume in the past year.
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