Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, March 23, 2021

Stock Market Pause in an Uptrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX may have completed a phase of its intermediate uptrend and is consolidating.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Monday, March 22, 2021

Stock Market After The FOMC – What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

I have received numerous emails and questions regarding the market’s set up and what to expect after the Triple-Witching event (FOMC, Futures/Options expiration) last week.  It appears many traders/investors are seeking some clarity related to price trends and the potential opportunities that are setting up in the US markets right now.  In this research article, my research team and I provide some greater detail related to what we believe is likely to happen over the next 5 to 8+ weeks.

Our recent Gann/Fibonacci research article drew quite a bit of attention from readers.  Their biggest concern was that we were suggesting a major peak in the markets could setup in early April 2021.  We want to be clear about this longer term market setup to make sure our readers and followers fully understand the implications of this technical pattern. 

A peak/top could start to setup anytime after April 1, 2021, based on the Gann/Fibonacci research we’ve completed.  But, that peak/top setup could also happen anytime between April 2021 and August 2021 (or slightly later).  Timing this pattern is not something we can accomplish very easily as the range of dates where this Gann/Fibonacci inflection level exists consists of about 5+ months.  The one key factor we continued to stress in that article was to “watch for a technical breakdown in price above the $379 to $380 price level on the SPY”.  Many readers may be able to comprehend what we are trying to say by this statement, but we’ll try to help clarify it by showing what it would look like on a price chart.

Friday, March 19, 2021

Are We Days Away From Potential Gann/Fibonacci Stock Market Price Peak? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We have received many emails from members and readers asking us to follow-up on our December 30, 2020, Gann/Fibonacci research article entitled “Price Amplitude Arcs/Gann Suggest A Major Peak in Early April 2021 – Part II“.  In that article, my research team suggested a major price peak may set up in early April 2021.  Now we are only a few weeks away from the start of April and we believe the US major indexes have already started to make their move related to the Gann/Fibonacci peak prediction.  Let’s review our original research and then take a look at what is happening on the charts right now.

Before we get started, please know that this article talks about the long-term trend and pattern forming. This topping setup may drag out until later this year, possibly August and beyond. As always, we do not trade or invest based on predictions. We simply follow the price. Until the market price confirms a new downtrend, we will remain long stocks.

Thursday, March 18, 2021

Dow Stock Market Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

FED Balance Sheet

Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices. So you really think US inflation is just 1%? it's more like 6%! Anyway the money printing binge now totals $7.4 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020.

Thursday, March 18, 2021

Stock Bulls Run – Will Gold Ones Too? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Resting on Friday, surging on Monday. Feeble downswing attempt defeated right after the open, and then just bullish price action. Retail data today, and another FOMC meeting tomorrow – I view the former as not too likely to spoil today‘s market action. About the latter, remembering the latest reactions to Powell pronouncements, I look for the markets to be affected to a much greater degree.

Don‘t look for material surprises, or be spooked by bets on the Fed tightening through dot plot adjustment or other forward guidance tools.I expect no change from what I wrote yesterday:

(…) Who could be surprised, given the modern monetary theory ruling the economic landscape? The Fed amply accomodative, one $1.9T stimulus bill just in, and a $2T infrastructure one in the making. That‘s after the prior Trump stimulus, and who would have forgotten how it all started in April 2020? The old congressional saying „a billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you‘re talking real money“, needs updating.

Thursday, March 18, 2021

Are The US Stock Markets Sending A Warning Sign? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

After an incredible rally phase that initiated just one day before the US elections in November 2020, we’ve seen certain sectors rally extensively.  Are the markets starting to warn us that this rally phase may be stalling?  We noticed very early that some of the strongest sectors appear to be moderately weaker on the first day of trading this week.  Is it because of Triple-Witching this week (Friday, March 19, 2021)?  Or is it because the Treasury Yields continue to move slowly higher?  What’s really happening right now and should traders/investors be cautious?

The following XLF Weekly chart shows how the Financial sector rallied above the upper YELLOW price channel, which was set from the 2018 and pre COVID-19 2020 highs.  Early 2021 was very good for the financial sector overall, we saw a 40%+ rally in this over just 6 months on expectations that the US economy would transition into a growth phase as the new COVID vaccines are introduced. 

Thursday, March 18, 2021

Stock Market March Rally Was Good - April Will Be Even Better / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

Oftentimes, I will peruse the articles being published on Seeking Alpha to gain a perspective as to whether others “in the know” are bearish or bullish, and why. But, the “why” aspect is the most entertaining to me.

When I decide to click on an article discussing the market, I find that the article most often explains what the market has done either yesterday or the week before. Then it goes into a discussion of the reasons the market did what it did. In other words, most articles are primarily concerned with trying to explain the past action of the market. But, here is the kicker. They then attempt to extrapolate the reasons of the past into the action of the future. This is where most fail.

First, one is only assuming they have an understanding as to why a market dropped or rallied in the past week. Simply because there is an event or news item that occurred during that week, they superficially assume that it caused the market move we experienced.

What is truly absurd is when the exact opposite event or news item is reported, and the market continues in the same path as before, they then have the gall to explain to us that this exact opposite event or new item caused the market to continue to rally.

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

Dow Stock Seasonal and Presidential Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, then higher into late April the correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that tends to resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears crow their loudest about the market having topped.

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

Is Stock Market Uptrend Already Resuming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end..

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX may have completed a phase of its intermediate uptrend and is consolidating

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Monday, March 15, 2021

Resting Stock Bulls and Gold Question Mark / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Stock bulls went right for all time highs yesterday, clearing the 3,900 threshold in this correction – one that is in its very late innings indeed. But the preceding upswing has been sharp, and not all the internals support such a swift recovery, which is why I am still looking for consolidation to strike at any moment.

We might be actually experiencing such a daily one right now, as today‘s premarket session has sent S&P 500 futures a few dozen points down. The big picture is though one of of the stock market getting used to rising rates, which are rising in reflection of the economic growth. But what about the snapback short-term rally in long-term Treasuries?

It‘s not materializing as the instrument went down again yesterday – unconvincingly bobbing above recent lows. The defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities, reversed yesterday (at a time when technology rose), sending a warning that we‘re about to see higher rates again. Probably not happening as fast as through Feb, but still. Let‘s bring up my recent perspective on high rates, what they are exactly:

(…)  the „high rates“ we‘re experiencing currently, do not compare to the early 1980s, which underscores the fragility of the current monetary order. The Fed knows that, and it has been evident in the long preparatory period and baby steps in the prior rate raising and balance sheet shrinking cycle.

The market will see through this, and the central bank would be forced to move to bring long-term rates down through yield curve control or a twist program, which would break the dollar, drive emerging markets, and not exactly control inflation – real rates would drop like a stone in such a scenario, turning around gold profoundly.

But the market knows the Fed isn‘t getting ready to really do anything more than it does right now. Gold rebounded on Tuesday, and the rally took it above $1,730 but the daily reversal is concerning. As I wrote yesterday in the title, the gold bulls can‘t rest – but they are resting, and prices are back at the lower end of the $1,720 volume profile.

Sunday, March 14, 2021

Stocks Bulls Can Take a Rest – But Gold Ones Can‘t / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

The daily banging on the 3,900 threshold shows in yesterday‘s upper knot, and this milestone has very good chances of being conquered today. More important than the exact timing though, are the internals marking the setup – we‘ve indeed progressed very far into this correction. While not historically among the longest ones, it‘s still getting long in the tooth – just as I was writing throughout the week.

And it is getting stale, even if I look at the star non-cofirnation, the high yield corporate bonds. Relatively modest daily upswing, outshined by investment grade corporate bonds. Yes, the credit markets are calming down, and the tiny daily long-term Treasuries upswing doesn‘t reflect that fully just yet. Besides giving breathing room to defensives such as utilities and consumer staples, it‘s also very conducive to the precious metals sector.

Sunday, March 14, 2021

What Stock Market Lessons Can We Learn From Yoda - The Jedi Master? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

Over the last 9 years since we opened Elliottwavetrader, I have had the privilege of training thousands of investors, traders and money managers regarding how to appropriately view the stock market from an honest and objective standpoint. And, during that time, I have just about seen it all when it comes to the wide array of perspectives with which people approach the market.

So, in this article, I am going to tap into some of the brilliance presented in the teachings of the Jedi Master - Yoda, and will apply it to my experience in training thousands of investors, traders and money managers. I will also be bolstering these lessons with what our members have actually said about these truths regarding the market.

YODA: “Ready are you? What know you of ready? For eight hundred years have I trained Jedi. My own counsel will I keep on who is to be trained. A Jedi must have the deepest commitment, the most serious mind.”

Saturday, March 13, 2021

Dow Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My commonsense interpretation of EWT continues to resolve in accurate outcomes as the chart of my last analysis implied to expect a strong 5 wave impulse advance into 2021 that has come to pass.

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Dow Stock Market Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Dow has broken out to new all time highs above 29,600 which successfully held as support during the January correction.

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Stock Market Pullback that’s largely driven by Tech and Growth Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Troy_Bombardia

Last week saw a wide divergence in the stock market. Sectors that exploded higher after March 2020 (e.g. tech, IPOs, growth stocks) saw sharp drawdowns while sectors that lagged significantly (e.g. energy & finance) are catching up. In this Market Report I will highlight a few indicators that matter right now. But more importantly, I’ll discuss how we’re investing & trading in this environment because at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is how you’re positioned. Everything else is just noise.

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Yet Another Bubble And Stock Market Crash Article / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

If I see another article calling this market a bubble, or that the crash is coming, or claiming that “the party is over,” I am seriously going to scream. But, I guess we should thank all these article writers as they are adding bricks to the wall of worry that we will climb in 2021.

I mean, have you ever seen a crash when everyone, and their mother, grandmother, uncle, aunt, and aunt’s cat knew it was coming? In fact, I got calls from many of my relatives asking me whether they should get out of the market since all they are hearing is that we are going to get a repeat of the March 2020 crash.

As an individual investor, you are undoubtedly bombarded by information throughout the internet. While some of it is bullish and most are normally bearish (as bearishness seems to sell better), it is quite a challenge to be able to distinguish the wheat from the chaff. Unfortunately, the great majority of the information resides within the chaff, and often causes investors to focus upon their fear more so than profitable information.

Tuesday, March 09, 2021

This Isn’t Your Father’s Overvalued Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: John_Mauldin

Many analysts contend that current stock valuations resemble the dot-com era. You can see it visually at CurrentMarketValuation.com. Some highlights…

The classic “Buffett Indicator” certainly seems to be in nosebleed territory. Notice that the valuations in 1966, the beginning of a long-term bear market, were also high.

Tuesday, March 09, 2021

Stock Market Great ADP Figures But Things Can Still Turn Nasty / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Submissions

Powell gave a wait-and-see answer to my yesterday‘s rhetorical question about the bears just starting out, indeed. The S&P 500 plunged, breaking far outside the Bollinger Bands confines, illustrating the extraordinary nature of the move. Rebound would be perfectly natural here (and we‘re getting one as we speak) – but will it be more than a dead cat bounce?

Stocks partially recovered from last Friday‘s intraday plunge, and good news about the stimulus clearing House followed after the market close – stock bulls took the opportunity, and Monday‘s session gave signs that the worst is over. Tuesday‘s move partially negated that, but even after Wednesday, the short-term case was undecided (even as tech kept acting relatively weak).

Yesterday‘s session though gives the short-term advantage to the bears, and that‘s because of the weak  performance I see in other stock market indices and bonds. The Russell 2000 got under pressure, negating what by yesterday still looked like a shallow correction there. So did the emerging markets and their bonds. More downside can materialize either suddenly or slowly over the coming say 1-2 weeks. It depends on the tech and its heavyweight names, where these find support.

Tuesday, March 09, 2021

U.S. Stocks: Here's a Big Sign That "Sentiment Cannot Get Much More Extreme" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

The stock exposure of the most bearish active investment managers is revealing

Relatively few investors want to bet against the stock market rally.

As a Feb. 18 financial article says (CNBC):

Short interest in the market has fallen to near-record lows.

Indeed, bullish sentiment is so extreme that even the most bearish among a group of professionals are behaving bullishly.

Monday, March 08, 2021

The AI Stocks Megatrend Big Picture / Stock-Markets / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock markets are soaring on the back of vaccines that herald the end game to the Covid nightmare. However the vaccines, covid-19 are all mere blips in the long-term trend trajectory that is being driven by AI and it's full spectrum application. For instance these are the key areas that I identified to focus upon over 5 years ago, though the number is always increasing as AI encroaches into every aspect of our lives which is why my focus primarily on core AI stocks rather than applications of AI.