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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 10, 2021

Stock Market Dichotomy / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX should now have reached its next intermediate top.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Sunday, August 08, 2021

Are Stock Markets Ready For An August Surprise? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

One thing that seems to be certain in the markets right now is the past hyper-bullish trending which appears to have weakened since early 2021. As a result, the longer-term Custom Indexes we use to help gauge and understand market trends are showing a very clear weakening of trends.

In this article, we are going to review three of our custom index charts on a weekly chart basis, the Custom US Stock Market Index, the Smart Cash Global Market Index, and the Custom Volatility Index.  Each of these charts highlights something unique related to current market trends.

Use this information to read between the line and to help establish your own expectations for the markets going forward.  We’ll provide our conclusion near the end of this research article.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, August 05, 2021

We Will See SPX 4600 In 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

As we came into 2021, I outlined to those willing to listen that I expected at least a 20% continuation rally in the SPX, and I would prefer for us to strike at least the 4600SPX region this year. And, at the time, the SPX was in the 3750SPX region.

Thus far, the market has provided us with an 18% rally in 2021, and I still expect us to rally to 4600SPX this year. The question that we are answering over the coming weeks is simply a matter of the path to 4600SPX.

Now, as usual, I take the time to read other articles on Seeking Alpha to glean some of the thinking within the market. And, amongst the articles calling the market a “bubble” or “wrong,” as well as several others attempting to call the top yet again, there are a few issues I would like to address.

First, I have been reading many analysts viewing this rally as the Covid “recovery” rally. And, it really makes me scratch my head.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, August 05, 2021

Revisiting The Excess Phase Stock Market Peak Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The setup of the Excess Phase peak pattern consists of an exuberant rally to a peak (Phase #1), followed by a moderate price correction that sets up into a sideways flagging pattern (Phase #2).  If the INDU and TRAN continue to move in a sideways flagging formation after recently moving moderately lower, we may start to see a new Excess Phase Peak setup in these two major indexes. This could be a warning of a much bigger breakdown in trends in the near future.

Please take a minute to review our earlier research posts related to the Excess Phase Peak setup (below) and how it related to the current market trend:

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, August 05, 2021

Dramatic Divergence between US and European Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets

By: EWI

This chart shows a "dramatic divergence" between U.S. and European stocks

Cryptocurrencies and so-called meme stocks have certainly received a lot of attention from investors.

Another investment category that has been in favor recently is European equities. No, they may not be quite as "hot" as, say, bitcoin -- but they've been receiving more attention than usual.

Let's start with some recent headlines:

  • U.S. investors are pouring money into European stock funds (Marketwatch, May 27)
  • European Stocks Are Coming In From the Cold (Bloomberg, June 17)
  • It's a Good Time to Invest in Europe (Kiplinger, June 24)
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, August 02, 2021

Stock Market Intermediate Top Reached / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX has now reached its next intermediate top.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Friday, July 30, 2021

The Inadvertent Debt/Inflation Trap – Is It Time for the Stock Market To Face The Music? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

What happens to a global economy after 10+ years of global central bank efforts to support a recovery attempt after a massive credit/debt collapse originates from a prior credit/debt housing bubble?  What happens to global economies when they become addicted to easy money policies and central bank activities that support greater and greater risk-taking? What is the end result of these actions after more than 10+ years of excess and central bank support for the markets?

Let’s play this out a bit to think about how the current market environment may be similar to what happened in the mid/late 1990s and see if we can come to any real conclusions. Remember, we are using our research and technical analysis skills to play a “what if” scenario in this research article.  Our current trading systems have not warned us of any major Bearish price trends of price collapses that may take place. Our systems are still trading the US markets based on current market trends.  This research is completely speculative in the sense that we are trying to identify “what if” scenarios based on events in the recent past.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 30, 2021

Fed Stocks Nothingburger, Dollar Lower, Focus on GDP, PCE / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Submissions

It was a rather pedestrian FOMC Statement day on Wednesday. There is GDP data incoming, and the widely Fed-followed Core PCE Price Index data comes out on Friday. What can we take away from the FOMC Statement and press conference?

Rates unchanged. No rush to raise interest rates. Inflation should persist.

No surprises here.

However, there was some notable price action in the US Dollar Index during Wednesday’s session. The US Dollar Index initially rose on the FOMC statement at 2:00 PM. During the press conference, the USD fell as Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that inflation should persist for several months. It is noteworthy price action and can be a forward-looking indicator for the direction of other asset prices.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 29, 2021

Reverse REPO Market Brewing Financial Crisis Black Swan Danger / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Financial Crisis 2.0 - You Don't Know How Big of a Bubble Your in until AFTER it BURSTS

A handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 29, 2021

Next Time You See "4 Times as Many Stock Market Bulls as There Are Bears," Remember This / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI


See how stock investors' "historic optimism" served as a warning

After a 12-year uptrend, just when caution might be in order, investor psychology has remained highly and stubbornly optimistic.

As the July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides Elliott wave analysis of major U.S. financial markets, said:

Large traders are more exuberant than ever. On June 11, large trader buy-to-open call purchases jumped to 45%, a new record.

A highly bullish outlook was also expressed in this July 10 Marketwatch headline:

The bull market in stocks may last up to five years -- here are six reasons why

Notice that the headline's suggestion is that the bull market has just started.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 29, 2021

Showdown: Paper vs. Physical Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: MoneyMetals

The first half of 2021 did not play out as hoped by precious metals investors. Despite the effort to “squeeze” the bullion banks, silver has yet to push through the $30 barrier, and gold remains below the high put in nearly a year ago.

The effort has been valiant. Demand for physical bullion is unprecedented.

However, the paper markets, where price discovery is purportedly done, remain untethered to physical supply and demand.

It will take more than physical demand to break the back of the banking regime which dominates the paper markets.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, July 28, 2021

Fed: Murderer of Markets and the Middle Class / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Michael_Pento

The Fed’s manipulation of the money supply and its cost has served to obliterate the function of asset price discovery, just as it has also caused the middle and lower classes to reduce their standard of living. Since a greater percentage of their falling real incomes goes to the purchase of food and energy--the things most effected by money printing--the wealth gap, which the fed avows to care about, has become greatly exacerbated.

After foolishly and desperately pursuing inflation many years, the dog finally caught the truck. But predictably, the freedom killers at the FOMC are coming to realize inflation is easily tractable on both ends of the spectrum. Its asinine 2% inflation goal was meant to be a ceiling when first proposed; but was underachieved for many years. However, that level has now been transcended by leaps and bounds. The evil inflation genie was released out of the bottle and putting it back in will entail destroying the stock market and economy as a direct consequence. In other words, it took trillions upon trillions of helicopter dollars to get inflation and asset prices where they are today. And unless the Treasury and Fed assent to doing that same thing on a more consistent basis, asset prices and the economy should succumb to a deflationary meltdown next year. A Pyrrhic victory over inflation is the best we can hope for.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, July 28, 2021

I Guess The Stock Market Does Not Fear Covid - So Should You? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

Looking back to the early part of the week, we all saw something that should not shock anyone who is actually thinking in an intellectually honest manner about the market.

You see, the market saw a nice drop on Monday. And, the news media was at the forefront "explaining" how the market fears regarding the Delta variant of Covid is what caused the decline, and would likely take it much lower. It made me wonder if they polled all the market participants to come up with that reason for the decline, or if they simply made it up as they go?

Well, I think it is quite clear that they simply made it up as they go, which is what they always do. And, investors were quite eager to foolishly adopt their reasoning as usual. Did you?

At some point, investors have to begin thinking for themselves and ignore what they are fed about the market (pun intended). Most of the reasons we believe the markets move are based upon pure fallacy. Those that propagate those fallacies are never burdened by the actual facts. Rather, whatever the news of the day seems to fit the narrative of the market direction is utilized as a reason for a market move, even if it is wholly untrue.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 27, 2021

SPX Going for the Major Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX May wat to push all the way to the top projection before making an important correction.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 25, 2021

Global Stock Market Investing: Here's the Message of Consumer "Overconfidence" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

Bear markets tend to follow this particular sentiment

In many global regions, economies are flourishing.

For example, here are two headlines about the U.S.:

What America's Startup Boom Could Mean For The Economy (npr.com, June 29)
Inflation Rose in June as Economic Recovery Continues (WSJ, July 13)

The goings-on in the United Kingdom provide another example. Employers in the UK are hiring people at the highest rate in more than six years. Plus, business and consumer spending are climbing swiftly -- at the fastest clip in a quarter of a century.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Saturday, July 24, 2021

Stock Market Stalling Signs? Taking a Look Under the Hood of US Equities / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Submissions

Equities traded quietly higher in Thursday's NY session. Simultaneously, bonds were bid rather firmly, sending interest rates even lower. What is going on beneath the surface?

Greetings. I hope this article finds you and yours well. Today, we are taking a look at some additional market indicators and internals to get an unbiased perspective on things.

First, I want to preface things by mentioning that I am not suggesting that I am fully bearish on the S&P 500 or stocks right now. However, I am taking more of a cautious stance at the moment.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Saturday, July 24, 2021

How does CFD trading work / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Submissions

...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, July 21, 2021

Emotional Stock Traders React To Recent Market Rotation – Are You Ready For What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Most traders don’t really have a solid strategy in place to protect assets and assist them in knowing when to pull risk capital away from market trends.  If you are trading on MEME stock content, variable technical strategies or flying by the seat of your pants when making trading decisions, you are probably very concerned and emotional about the recent downside price rotation in the major markets right now.

What is happening is that the markets are attempting to potentially start a reversion event – a price rotation.  This rotation in price may turn into a bigger price correction or downtrend at some point in the near future. But right now, we are only seeing moderate price rotation in the US and global markets.  Should you be concerned about this spike in volatility and the timing of this correction? This a good and valid question. Let my team and I try to help you regarding what may happen in the near future.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, July 21, 2021

Post-Covid Stimulus Payouts & The US Fed Push Global Investors Deeper Into US Value Bubble / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In this second part of our research into how capital is being deployed across the globe and why traders/investors continue to pour capital into the US equities markets, we’ll explore how the US major indexes have reacted to the continued investments by the US and foreign investors compared to foreign market trends.

Using methods like this to determine where capital is being allocated and why traders/investors decide to move capital into and out of various global indexes, suggests one of the most important aspects of swing trading is to stay keenly aware of how capital is moving and deploying across the globe.

In October of 2019, we attempted to highlight how capital is shifting and how trends are setting up in currencies, global major indexes, and other global sectors.

October 17, 2019: CURRENCIES SHOW A SHIFT TO SAFETY AND MATURITY – WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 20, 2021

FREE PASS to Analysis and Trend forecasts of 50+ Global Markets by Elliott Wave International / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: EWI

Hi,

2021 is hallway over. In Q3 and Q4, what in the world should you be watching?

That's not an easy question to answer. There is a lot to look at. In just the past 2-3 months:

  • Bitcoin got cut in half
  • Crude oil rallied from $62 to $76 - that's 20%
  • Gold dropped ~8%, then rebounded
  • USD had its sharpest rally in over a year
  • Nikkei 225 dropped 1700 points and then rallied 1200
  • Nasdaq rose1600 points - over 12%

Markets are MOVING -- and surely, you're wondering what Elliott waves show for Q3/Q4.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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