Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Stock Market December 2015: Into 2016 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Donald_W_Dony

Bull market tailwinds continue to push the S&P 500 forward in 2016. Positive markers include the rising U.S. dollar, the trend of the U.S. Yield Curve, the on-going decline in unemployment and the steady upward trend in the U.S. Consumer confidence.

Over the past 40 years, the U.S. dollar has had a close relationship with the S&P 500.

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Stock Market Santa Claus Rally or The Start of Something Bigger? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Clif_Droke

Stocks are trying to live up to the expectations for a year-end "Santa Claus" rally. Most of the market's improving internal condition is due to the latest strength in the energy sector, with the NYSE Oil Index (XOI) rallying some 6% from its recent lows.

Although recent trading volume has been far lighter than normal, the NYSE advance/decline ratio for Dec. 23 was an exceptional 13:1 in favor of upside volume. That completely reversed the 1:11 downside volume day on Dec. 11. It also was the first time since Oct. 5 that the up/down volume ratio has been so high in favor of advancing volume. While the Dec. 23 big volume ratio may have been a holiday-related aberration, if it's followed by a 9:1 up/down volume ratio in the next few days it will qualify as a major volume reversal signal which would mean at least a temporary reprieve from the selling pressure of the last few months.

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Year-end Effort at Stock Market Elevation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX Premarket is higher today and threatens to break through the 50-day Moving Average at 2065.13. This is all part of the effort to have SPX close in the black for 2015. It fits the profile of a Wave [e], since these waves tend to be rogues and often advance beyond the Triangle trendline. The Cycles Model calls for a reversal tomorrow or Thursday. We’ll see if the efforts to keep the markets elevated can last the rest of this week..

David Stockman comments, “The S&P 500 closed at 2052 on November 18,2014. That was 405 days ago, and despite the rips and dips in the interim the broad market average has gone nowhere.

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Stock Market Herd is Heading for the Cliff / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: James_Quinn

You would think investors (muppets) would be grateful for the extended topping process of the stock market, as it has given them the opportunity to exit before the inevitable crash. As CNBC and the rest of the mainstream media spin bullish stories to keep the few remaining mom and pop investors sedated and the millions of passive working Americans invested in their 401ks, the Wall Street rigging machine siphons off billions in ill-gotten gains, while absconding with fees for worthless advice.

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Stock Market Of Nothing....What Is It Waiting On?.... Sentiment Bullish... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

We've all seen markets that seem to go nowhere day after day. In fact, month after month, but this market is really tough on the nerves and one's emotions. We have spent a year at the flat line, but it's not just that it's flat, it's how it's going about its business. There are just no moves that sustain themselves. It would be fun if we could ramp up and ramp down, but we do neither for the most part. Some bigger moves for sure along the way, but in reality very few of them thus there's that word we all hate again, but there's no CONVICTION. Neither side is showing the ability to establish itself. No accumulation off bottoms. No distribution off tops. Nothing from nothing.

Monday, December 28, 2015

Chinese Markets Short Term Mess But Long Term Opportunity? / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: Sol_Palha

A bird doesn't sing because it has an answer, it sings because it has a song. Maya Angelou

In the short term, China is still a mess, and the reasons are all but obvious.  Greed and stupidity fuelled the bubble that popped back in June of this year.  Some estimates put the number of individuals opening new accounts without high school diplomas at over 60%. Secondly, a large portion of these investors were playing the markets with borrowed money, otherwise known as trading on margin. Making matters worse to circumvent the limits placed by regular margin trading, many turned to the shadowy banking sector, where one could borrow up to ten times the value of one’s stock holding. At the height of the mania over 500,000 new brokerage accounts were being opened per week, a clear sign that the masses were ecstatic and believed that the market could only trend higher. When you couple Greed with stupidity, the result is always unpleasant.

Monday, December 28, 2015

Stock Market Aggressive Sell Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX appears to be testing the trendline of its Orthodox Broadening Top formation and is expected to make a small bounce. At this moment, I would call the status of its current position as an aggressive sell signal, while a drop beneath the trendline at 2041.00 would turn it to a confirmed sell.

The famous stock trader, Jesse Livermore once said, “Money is made by sitting, not trading.” In this case, a short position carried since our first sell signal in early November still has value, while attempting to trade the Triangle would have led to a series of frustrations, if not losses.

Monday, December 28, 2015

SPX, TNX Both Threatening a Breakdown / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is down nearly 8 points as I write. It is possible that it has formed another Triangle formation, just as it did prior to the August panic. If so, we may see a break to the downside sometime this week. Most other analysts are focused on the idea that this is bullish. A break of the lower trendline will be proof that it isn’t.

Monday, December 28, 2015

Stock Market No Clear Short-Term Direction - Topping Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Monday, December 28, 2015

Crude Oil, SP500, Exxon Mobil - When Will They Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Chris_Vermeulen

A full blown bear market in energy resources and energy stocks has been underway since mid-2014. History shows that the price of crude oil typically bottoms before the broad stock market. And oil related stocks bottom at the same time or later than the broad market.

The monthly chart below shows how oil bottoms several months before the stock market does. This provides us with some insight on when we should start to expect a bear market to end in the US stock market.

Monday, December 28, 2015

Stocks Bear Market is On Hold For Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Still Bull Market?

SPX: Intermediate trend - The index may have made a secondary top at the 2104 level and started another decline of intermediate duration.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Stock Market, GDX Topping Again? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Since it is still the Holiday Season, I am making this article brief. The SPX is at the 16 TD top 3 TD as of Christmas Eve. There is an 8 TD top due Dec 30 2 TD's with the moon in Leo/Virgo on the 29th. On the 29th, Mercury squares Mars, and again this will happen on the 5th of January (these are negative). Last time we had a top like this (moon in Leo/Virgo) was Dec 1/2. Christmas Eve was the 4/8 TD low, so we may see a pop up on Monday. It looks similar to the late July top right now, so it could go into Dec 30 and as high as 2092/95. The Put/Call ratios are also very similar to that time frame.

Saturday, December 26, 2015

Deflation is Back… Will It Lead to Another Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Graham_Summers

Central Bankers are flummoxed.

Having cut interest rates over 600 times since 2009 (and printed over $15 trillion), they’ve yet to generate the expected economic growth.

Despite these failures, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan are currently engaging massive QE programs. The Fed is the only major Central Bank not rapidly expanding its balance sheet.

Saturday, December 26, 2015

Stocks Bull Market Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started the week at SPX 2006. On Monday the market gapped up at the open, traded back down to SPX 2006 then closed where it opened at 2021. Tuesday and Wednesday displayed gap up openings as well, as the market traded up to SPX 2065. Thursday’s half day trading was quiet, but the rally hit SPX 2067 before ending the week at 2061. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.65%, the NDX/NAZ gained 2.50%, and the DJ World index gained 2.30%. Economic reports for the week were positive. On the uptick: the FHFA, PCE, personal income/spending, consumer sentiment, plus weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: Q3 GDP, existing/new home sales, and Q4 GDPn. Next week is of course is the New Year, markets will be closed Friday, and reports will be highlighted by the Chicago PMI and Case-Shiller.

Thursday, December 24, 2015

Stocks in Interest Rate Hike Cycles / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

The stock-market outlook in 2016 is riddled with great uncertainty following the Fed ending its 7-year-old zero-interest-rate policy.  With the first rate-hike cycle in nearly a decade just getting underway, traders are anxiously wondering how it will impact the stock markets.  While raising rates out of ZIRP is radically unprecedented, stock-market reactions during past rate-hike cycles still offer some interesting insights.

The Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy decisions are no longer peripheral concerns for stock-market fortunes.  Thanks to the Fed’s extreme easing of recent years, its actions have usurped everything else to become the stock markets’ overwhelmingly dominant driver.  And unfortunately the wildly-outsized upside impact on stock prices by the uber-dovish Fed is highly likely to portend proportional downside.

Thursday, December 24, 2015

Stock Market End of Year Winning Trade Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Yesterday December 23rd we closed out a nice winning trade in XLE energy sector. If you have not yet closed the trade can should do so today and will locking an even larger gain of 4-5% return in only three days.

The stock market closes early today at 1 pm ET. Today volume will be light and its not worth sitting around watching or trying to trade in my opinion. The best trade for today is to spend quality time with your family and friends.

Thursday, December 24, 2015

S&P 500 Clears Huge Moving-Average Resistance... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

So what do we make of today's move above two critical, exponential moving averages on the S&P 500. Price talks. Emotion gets in the way. Play what you see. So today we see that the S&P 500 has made the move above those critical moving averages, but we saw this a week back and then the market collapsed right back down. A head fake. Is this head fake number two? Only time will tell. The oscillators are strong on this particular move, so other than short-term overbought, it should try to hang in there better this time. Should is the key word, if we can unwind overbought without too much price erosion that would be a good thing for the bulls to hang their collective bullishness on. How any stock or index pulls back from overbought can be just as if not more important in how it goes higher. If the oscillators pull back to the near neutral zone and price holds this gap up that would be bad news for the bears. You only know when it's occurring, but the move today does seem better than last week's attempt to clear those moving averages due to better looking oscillators.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Stock Market Risk On? Risk Off? Find Out Where Your Money Lies / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: EWI

A peek at the new free report from the editors of our Financial Forecast Service

It's almost Christmas, "the hap-happiest season of all." Yet, here's a sobering fact for U.S. investors: S&P 500 stocks are actually lower now than at the end of last year (chart: Google Finance):

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Stock Market SPX Being Repelled by Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX challenged its trio of resistances this afternoon. The Intermediate-term was the last to be challenged at 2064.18. The 50-day was at 2063.14 and the 200-day (not shown) is at 2061.50. A decline beneath that final level appears to have put SPX back on a sell signal.

SPX has now reached breakeven with the December 31. 2014 close at 2058.90. What comes next?

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Stock Market Breadth-less, Volume-less Rally May be Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket appears to be marginally higher than yesterday’s print high. Whether today’s opening and subsequent prices stay beneath yesterday’s high remain to be seen.