Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, February 15, 2009
Financial Markets React to Bank Bailout Blackhole / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
“Words from the Wise” this week comes to you from my abode in a visibly depressed Europe, from where I am compiling this report as welcome relief from gloomy conversations with taxi drivers and cheerless meals in deserted eateries.
Events during the past few days were dominated by the announcement of US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's financial stability plan and a deal reached by Congress on the economic stimulus bill. However, the much-anticipated bailout bang soon whimpered as investors were disappointed about the lack of “beef”. Meanwhile, markets were also mired in uncertainty on the back of fresh evidence of headwinds facing the global economy - notably in major economies such as the UK, continental Europe and Japan.
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Sunday, February 15, 2009
Stock Markets Heading for Successful Retest of November Lows / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The good news is: Everything is in place for a successful retest of the November lows.
Short Term I found no indicators that made a compelling case for a short term movement in either direction.
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Sunday, February 15, 2009
Stock Market Continues To Heal / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Following the market is starting to become a tedious chore. The back and forth action occurring in the stock market may be fertile grounds for the day trader, but not for the position trader. Long or short, trying to trade in this type of environment is tough. Of course, the million dollar question is “when will it be safe to leave the sidelines and enter the market?” No one can answer that. At this time the only real option is to continue to follow the news and observe the market.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Financial Markets Analysis: Stocks Bear Market and Government Intervention / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The weeks stock market trend was in one word WEAK, the preceding weeks strong close FAILED to have any follow through, the stock market FAILED to break above 8,400 let alone make it to resistance at 8,600, stocks turned lower to target the lower end of the trading range of between 8,400 and 7,800, including a BEARISH break below support, which triggered the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) into action to support the stock market and bring the selling to a halt, for the time being at least.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Is the Stock Market Risk Increasing or Decreasing? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The Relative Strength Indicator with a setting of 30 days is one of the most important technical tools to use. Its daily reading level and its trend tell's investors how much risk there is, AND if the risk is decreasing or increasing.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 14, 2009
New Major Upleg for UltraShort Dow / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Regardless of whatever carrot stick the Administration or Congress dangles in front of the equity market, my work continue to warn me that since the January 6 low at 49.60 in the ProShares UltraShort Dow 30 (NYSE: DXD), the price structure has entered into a major new upleg.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Stock Market at the Edge of a Precipice.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Dow and across the board for that matter. The market should have followed through to the upside on Friday, but could never get going and ended up closing basically near the lows. Exactly the opposite of what I thought would take place. My thinking couldn't have been more wrong. When you get a 1 point Doji on an 8000 index such as the Dow off a downtrend of 600 points, you should get a reversal the next day 99% of the time. Friday was the 1%. Only in this bear market, I guess. Another reason why you can't get aggressive.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Stock Market Back-and-Fill Session Has Disappointing Close / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The stock market indices ended the week on a down note, but they certainly had some volatility. Initially, the markets sold off from the opening on Friday, held support, and then bounced to new rally highs, reaching 1250 NDX and 840 SPX. But that was right at important secondary resistance. They failed to get through, and then had an orderly 5-wave decline that lasted until mid-day. Just before lunch hour the indices reached support and bounced sharply to retest the highs but fell short, pulled back again late afternoon, bounced in the last hour but again couldn't get through and in the last 5 minutes sold off quite sharply, with the NDX dropping 8 points and the S&P 500 more than 6 points.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 13, 2009
Financial Markets React Badly to Obama Economic Stimulus Plan / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
“Stimulus Bill” up for a final vote today... After a 24-hour delay caused by late, lingering controversy, Democratic congressional leaders say President Barack Obama's economic stimulus bill -- a massive, $790 billion package of tax cuts and federal spending -- is on track for a Friday vote in the House.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 13, 2009
Investment Performance Expectations: Fine Tuning Working Capital Model / Stock-Markets / Learning to Invest
Contrary to popular belief and Wall Street propaganda, investing is not a competitive event. Rather, it is a uniquely personal, goal-directed activity that individuals must organize and control for themselves. Too few appreciate that it is a long-term enterprise and only a handful, at best, have discovered that DJIA and S & P 500 numbers are only useful at their extremes.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 13, 2009
Consumer Credit Collapse: What's Really on the Cards / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009
Inquiring minds are taking second look at the consumer credit numbers reported last week. Please consider Consumer credit falls more than expected in December . Consumer borrowing fell for a third straight month in December, the longest stretch in 17 years, as households cut spending amid a steep recession and rising job layoffs.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 13, 2009
Stock Markets Stage Late Comeback on Mortgage Bailout Plan / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
JFK once inspired a generation of young Americans with the immortal line “think not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country”. How ironic, in the era of bailout nation, does that sound now! And with an hour to go to the New York close last night it was more of what your country may do for you that helped the market claw back heavy early losses.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Stock Market Volatile Session Ends Higher on Mortgage Subsidy News / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The markets had quite a volatile session with four major substantial intraday swings that created a day of volatility for sure. Net on the day the indices closed slightly higher for the most part, except for the Dow, which was down a tad. The day started out with a big gap down. They tested the lows and actually took them out on the S&P 500 and slightly so on the Nasdaq 100, but rallied back off of 1205 NDX and 812 SPX and staged a strong 5-wave rally that lasted into late morning. The NDX moved from 1205 to 1240, and the SPX trailed, only moving from about the 812 area to 827.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 12, 2009
U.S. Stock Markets Give Major Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Two things happened today that bear thinking about:
1. The US Stock market gave a sell signal which, in my view, was not a run-of-the-mill signal. There are too many people who are “hoping” for a bounce from these levels to give me the comfort that it will bounce.
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Thursday, February 12, 2009
Stock Market Equilibertarianism / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The “Let's get Mikey” Market - There used to be a television commercial for Life brand cereal that we enjoyed immensely. It's worth a brief discussion.
The ad featured a trio of brothers sitting around the breakfast table, trying to determine who was going to try a new cereal. Neither of the older brothers had the nerve to give it a go (“I ain't gonna try it; you try it.”). But the youngest, Mikey, could always be convinced. “He'll eat anything!”
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Thursday, February 12, 2009
Nasdaq Q's Bear Market Countertrend Rally Ending? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The pattern developing in the PowerShares QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQQ) since the 11/21 low at 25.05 is a mess, which in and of itself indicates to me that it represents a countertrend rally within an as of yet incomplete larger downmove that should revisit and test the November low in the upcoming days/weeks. If such a scenario proves correct, then the 2/10 recovery high at 31.69 ended the entire countertrend recovery, and the subsequent decline into today's low at 29.64 represents the initial decline of a new downleg.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Historic Oversold Conditions in Almost All Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
Larry Edelson writes: 2009 is already shaping up to be yet another year when almost all analysts and investors get the markets dead wrong. Again.
But you don't have to be a part of it. You can be on the right side of the markets.
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Thursday, February 12, 2009
Stock Market Reversion to the Mean and the Risk of Ruin / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The Silver Bullet Band - Groping in the dark for the golden gun with silver bullets, should they get their hands on it- the Fed, Treasury, and the political bodies at large, may soon discover they have been on their knee's pleading to engage in a willfully ignorant round of Russian roulette with a fully loaded revolver.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Bearish Stock Market Base Building / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Investing in the financial markets requires the assessment of probabilities for both positive and negative outcomes. You should approach the market with neither a bullish nor a bearish bias. The S&P 500 has been holding up relatively well since the November 20, 2008 low. A sideways pattern in the markets is often referred to as a base. Wall Street, as a whole, is predisposed to view the markets with a significant bullish bias. Consequently, the S&P 500's recent basing pattern has been met with almost a universally positive reaction.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Stock Market Treads Water Ahead of Congressional Fiscal Stimulus Vote / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
US stocks rebounded from their lows to record modest gains after news on ‘fiscal stimulus'. In short the US House and Senate versions of fiscal stimulus plans have been reconciled into a single $789bn stimulus plan – one third tax cuts, two-thirds spending . We are led to expect votes today in the House and this evening for the Senate. However given the price performance of government bonds this morning (they are bid to boots), I'd say the risk aversion trade is back with a bang and this spells trouble for equities. Much more on that below.Read full article... Read full article...