Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

NASDAQ Stock Index Diverging From SP500

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Apr 17, 2015 - 10:42 AM GMT

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Stock-Markets

The NASDAQ is showing the same type bearish divergence from the S&P 500 last seen from Nov 28 to Dec 5, 2014. The Lindsay top has a variance of 222/225 trading days placing the last possible top for the S&P 500 on Monday, April 20, 2015. From Dec 5 to Dec 16, 2014, the S&P 500 fell about 5.46% top to bottom over 7 trading days. Following the same pattern places the next low on the FOMC meeting date of April 29, 2015, which also happens to be a Wall Cycle low of 11.25/33.75 trading days from the series starting on Mar 11, and following on Mar 26 and April 14.


What followed the December 16 low was a 7-8 trading day monster rally into Dec 26/29. I can't help but think that the FOMC is going to kick start the market once again out of its funk and create the same buying panic that we had then. This would place the S&P 500 at new all time highs by May 8/11, where the next Bradley turn is due (May 10). Following the same pattern, we see the next low on May 18 (another strong sell-off with a Wall Cycle low of 45 + 2). The pattern skipped along bouncing lows into what would be a final low of June 11 (mirroring the Feb 2 low), just 2 trading days off the expected Major Bradley turn of June 9.

There is a major Bradley turn due April 22, just 2 trading days off the expected top on April 20th. My Elliott/Gann work shows the market hyper-extended from the norm (but permissible) and over-ready for a decline of some magnitude (in this market a 5% drop is a big move!).

The charts below show the daily S&P 500 and the QQQ. I do expect we cover the gap (made by the rally early Wednesday) near SPX 2096 by early OPEX.

S&P500 Hourly Chart

QQQ Daily Chart

As you can see, the hourly chart of the SPX shows a bearish Rising Wedge Pattern. This is a rising wedge within a larger Rising Wedge. Both assume a waterfall decline coming. The QQQ shows divergence to the SPX, which is a case of inter-market bearish divergence. The market is laboring and may not get much over the 2013/15 area Monday. My volume indicators are showing net money outflows as we rally.

The sideways grind is just about over (IMHO) and the market should get back to some good predictable moves both up and down into at least the early summer. Based on the IMP (Irregular Megaphone Pattern) that I showed earlier this year, I would expect we see an important top in the next few months that leads to a more substantial decline to below 1700 on the S&P 500 sometime this fall. I for one am glad we're about ready to escape this crazy market we've been in for the past few weeks.

Brad Gudgeon

Editor of The BluStar Market Timer

www.blustarmarkettimer.info

The BluStar Market Timer was rated #1 in the world by Timer Trac in 2014, competing with over 1600 market timers. This occurred despite what the author considered a very difficult year for him. Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years. The website is www.blustarmarkettimer.info To view the details more clearly, you may visit our free chart look at www.blustarcharts.weebly.com Copyright 2015. All Rights Reserved

Copyright 2015, BluStar Market Timer.  All rights reserved.

Disclaimer:  The above information is not intended as investment advice.  Market timers can and do make mistakes.  The above analysis is believed to be reliable, but we cannot be responsible for losses should they occur as a result of using this information.  This article is intended for educational purposes only. Past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

Brad Gudgeon Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in