A Secular look at USD and USB
Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015 Apr 16, 2015 - 02:21 PM GMTA look at the monthly chart of USD reveals the backdrop for my analysis and conclusions.
First, the rally may be seen as a Cycle degree Wave II.
Second, the 50% Fibonacci retracement value of Cycle Wave I happens to be 100.87. Note how close the high came to this.
Third, in a Triangle retracement, Wave [C] is often equal to the longest leg of the Triangle, in this case Intermediate Wave (A), which is exactly 21 points. Add that product to the lowest point of Wave (E) at 78.93 and the result is a target of 99.93. This is a spin-off of the function that [Wave (C) often seeks the same measure as Wave (A)].
Friends, the only conclusion that I can reach is that the USD is about to begin Cycle Wave III, which may very soon become unmistakably evident. Remember the Dollar longs are one of the most crowded trades, possibly with leverage (Yen Carry). Those longs may be forced to unwind all the way down to the Wave [B] low at 78.93.
It appears that on April 1, USB may have ended its long secular uptrend exactly 33.54 years from its start on or near October 1, 1981. This is .86 years short of an exact 34.4 year duration which is expected on or near February 24, 2016. That date may be a Wave II high after USB breaks its long-term trendline, currently near 133.00.
SPX Premarket appears to have broken the Orthodox broadening Top trendline, near 2103.00 this morning, giving it a potential gap down at the open.
Initial Jobless Claims jumped by 12,000 this week as prior claims are revised upward.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs posted a profit at a 5-year high this quarter.
Regards,
Tony
Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web
We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.
If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .
Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com
As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals
Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only. There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.
Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive |
© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.