Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, October 17, 2011
Is the Stock Market Being Manipulated By the Fed and its Banks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The U.S. economy has continued to falter since the housing bubble burst. Virtually every part of the economy has worsened, and continues to do so. This is also true on a global scale. Whether discussing unemployment, housing, inflation, GDP, retail sales, etc., the picture is clear, we are still in a depression. Even though the economic picture is bleak, the stock markets have continued to go up in value during this period. Why is this happening? After the market collapse of 2008 and 2009, where losses were generally around 55%, the markets have gone up substantially. During that same period were QE1 and QE2. This is no coincidence. Bernanke took full credit for the rise in the stock markets, and for good reason.
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Monday, October 17, 2011
Stocks Bear Market Rally or New Bull Advance? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Broader global markets have rallied substantially since the start of the new cycle. The NYSE Composite has advanced 14% from October 4th (Chart 1), the EURO 100 has climbed over 11% and many Asian indexes have jumped 12%-17%. But is this the start of a new bull market or just a rebound rally within a longer bear trend?
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Monday, October 17, 2011
Technical Analysis of Stocks, Currencies, Bonds and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
-- When I last discussed the VIX two weeks ago, I had mentioned that the VIX was getting quite a bit of attention in the popular media. I should have suspected that it was the "kiss of death" for the continuation of the rally at that time. Although the formation appeared to be ready for an upside breakout, it was due for a Master Cycle low, first. It now appears that the low may be in, or nearly so. The VIX cycle turn date occurred on Saturday, so I am allowing one more trading day for the turn to happen.
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Monday, October 17, 2011
Stock Market Ready for a Pause? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline (which appears to have already started) into 2014.
SPX: Intermediate trend - A very strong uptrend typical of bear market rallies has begun. However, the existing pattern suggests that a correction is due.
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Sunday, October 16, 2011
How Gold and Stocks are About to Repeat the 2010 Bottom / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
In May of 2010, immediately following the flash crash many investors started to become bearish (nervous) regarding their position in gold and equities. Once the general public became aware that the stock market could fall 10% in a matter of minutes, investors became very cautious. Suddenly protecting their capital and current positions was at the forefront of their investment process.
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Sunday, October 16, 2011
Stock Market S&P 500 Index Getting Close to a Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The past few months have been very difficult to navigate for retail investors and institutional money managers. The huge week to week price swings and increased volatility have made the current market conditions exceptionally difficult to maneuver. Day traders are about the only group of market participants that outperform during periods such as we have seen since the beginning of August.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Stock Market at The Point of No Return / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Impressive is a understated word, but I don't think many would have expected in just 9 days to see a rally of near 150 points in the SPX in such a short space of time.
The bears simply never stood a chance as the market took "risk on" to a new level. In arguably a move that will likely go down in history as one of the quickest 9 days rallies in history, I have not checked on the stats, but in recent times for a 9 day move, that's the quickest move I can recall.
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Sunday, October 16, 2011
Stocks Bear Market Primary B Wave Rally Continues / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Another impressive week for the bulls: SPX/DOW +5.45%. We have seen quite a few of these since the bear market began, mixed in with some just as impressive downweeks: w/e July 01st S/D +5.5%, w/e August 26th S/D +4.5%, w/e September 16th S/D +5.05%. Economic reports for the week were light but still trending lower. On the uptick: retail sales, business inventories and the M1- multiplier. On the downtick: the trade/budget deficits, consumer sentiment, the monetary base, the WLEI, and jobless claims rose. Remaining unchanged were import/export prices. That’s 3 up and 6 down if you’re counting. Equity markets worldwide had impressive gains, especially the NDX/NAZ in the US +7.65%. Asian markets gained 3.1%, European markets were +3.2%, the Commodity equity group rose 7.6%, and the DJ World index gained 5.4%. Next week’s economic reports will be highlighted by industrial production, the CPI/PPI, housing and the FED’s beige book.
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Friday, October 14, 2011
Silver’s Signals Lean Bearish For Stocks and Commodities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Before we review current bull/bear signals from silver, Bloomberg had an on the money comment relative to the efforts in Europe:
Read full article... Read full article...“Recapitalizing the banks is not the solution,” said Justin Bisseker, who helps manage 205 billion pounds as a European bank analyst in London for Schroders, Britain’s largest independent money manager. “Sovereign risk is the principal concern. Once investors’ confidence in sovereigns returns, then confidence in the banks will follow.&rM.
Friday, October 14, 2011
Investors Great Opportunities (from Great Mistakes) Season / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
“… I think this next phase of the crisis — a crisis that started with the credit crunch — has been exacerbated by governments and central banks creating even more debt in the global economy.
… The credit crunch was the result of too much leverage (debt) in the global economy. So the private sector starts to deleverage and instead of letting the market take its natural course, authorities add more debt to the global economy. Now the imbalances are worse than before the credit crunch.
I couldn’t make this stuff up if I tried.
Thus, I believe this story ends badly again; deleveraging globally is the only way to solve the problem if countries wish to see real growth ever again.
It won’t be pretty for most asset classes…”
“The Bank of England falls off the wagon. The pound could be sore in the morning!”
Jack Crooks, Money and Markets, 10/8/11
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Friday, October 14, 2011
A Rising Stock Market Won't Stop the "Economic Rot" Beneath / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Suppose you see a lovely house -- one with great curb appeal. It has new paint and manicured shrubbery out front.
But also suppose that you look more closely. You press your thumb on the window sill and the wood frame crumbles in. Come to find out, the wood is rotten in too many places to count. The deck joists and supports are fractured. Even the terrain underneath the deck looks unstable. And the closer you look the worse the problems are.
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Friday, October 14, 2011
A Hair Trigger Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By the first week of October, after having dropped more than 18 percent from its highs achieved in May 2011, U.S. stocks were desperate to latch on to any good news. In this context, the apparent agreement between the major European players to kick their debt can down the road was viewed as an "all clear" for shell shocked investors.
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Friday, October 14, 2011
Will US Shoppers Rescue Europe's Economy? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
This morning there is a muted reaction to the downgrade of Spanish debt by ratings agency S&P. It seems that the agency has done little more than confirm what markets have been saying for weeks. Today we have the start of the G20 meeting which runs into the weekend. The talks will be centred around Europe with terms of the rescue plan still being finalized amid news that France and Germany are disagreeing on Lisbon treaty reforms.Markets are in a holding pattern right now, but this could be broken by some strong data from the US today.
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Thursday, October 13, 2011
Stock Market SPY Lagging the Q's / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Let's notice the relative weakness of the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (SPY) in relation to the PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ), exhibited by the juxtapostions of their trading moving averages.
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Thursday, October 13, 2011
Big Banks Are About to Get Blasted by the Volcker Rule / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
David Zeiler writes: When the Volcker Rule regulations go into effect next year, its restrictions could slam the revenue of the fixed income trading operations of several major U.S. banks by as much as 25%.
The Volker Rule is one of the elements required by the Dodd-Frank financial oversight law, which was written to rein in the sort of excessive Wall Street risk-taking that led to the financial crisis of 2008.
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Thursday, October 13, 2011
Major Market Reversals Brewing for Gold, Silver and Stock Prices / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Over the past year we have been learning more about the financial situations across the pond in Europe. With international issues on the rise, investors are panicking trying to find a safest haven for their capital. This money has been bouncing from one investment to another trying to avoid the next major crash in stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities. It seems every 6 months there is a new headline news issue at hand forcing the smart money to withdraw from one investment class too another hoping to avoid the next meltdown.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Stock Market Rally Continues.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
There really wasn't much to focus on last night from overseas. The futures were up higher, however, and the move higher in Europe, France, etc. gave our markets a nice boost as the morning wore on, allowing for a decent gap up once trading began. The gains didn't explode higher as we were overbought, but the gains sure did hold decently throughout the day. More of the same these past days as sentiment has really kicked in the trade for the short-term, which is allowing for short-term oscillators to remain overbought, an unusual phenomenon when you're in a bear market. The trade has really gotten out of control on the bearishness. More on that later in this report.
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Thursday, October 13, 2011
Another Similar Stock Market 2008 Crash Chart Pattern / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
"He observed that human emotions collectively had major impacts on the movement of stock prices and markets in general, ultimately creating patterns that kept repeating." - From a book on Jesse Livermore's trading style
Without a doubt one common similarity between the current market and the fall of 2008 is heightened investor emotions. There are plenty of other similarities from bank nationalizations, a deteriorating global economy and government intervention.
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Thursday, October 13, 2011
Stock Market Broadening Formation Wave structure now agrees with the Cycle / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The market has morphed yet again, but the Broadening Formation is providing a structure within which we may interpret these moves.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2011
SP Dec Futures Intraday - Operation Twist Begins / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Although this could break out and keep going, I have held the thought that this is just a short squeeze within the context of a broad trading range from 1100 to 1220. It should be noted that the futures tend to be a little 'sloppy.' These moves up and down in a broad channel are what is known as a 'wash and rinse' or 'wax on, wax off.'
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