Category: Global Stock Markets
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Thursday, August 05, 2021
Dramatic Divergence between US and European Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
This chart shows a "dramatic divergence" between U.S. and European stocks
Cryptocurrencies and so-called meme stocks have certainly received a lot of attention from investors.
Another investment category that has been in favor recently is European equities. No, they may not be quite as "hot" as, say, bitcoin -- but they've been receiving more attention than usual.
Let's start with some recent headlines:
- U.S. investors are pouring money into European stock funds (Marketwatch, May 27)
- European Stocks Are Coming In From the Cold (Bloomberg, June 17)
- It's a Good Time to Invest in Europe (Kiplinger, June 24)
Saturday, December 29, 2018
World Stock Market Indices: When to Start Buying Stocks Again? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The World Indices have shown a sideways to lower year in 2018. The last Quarter alone World Indices lost their gains, for example, the SPX or the Dow Jones. Other World indices peaked earlier than others this year and some of them did not produce new highs again.
There is a lot of speculation going around the Market which results in many questions which need to be answered. We can hear a lot of experts calling different reasons and scenarios. It goes from a Political crisis to the Trade war with China, to the Feds raising interest rates and many more assumptions. However, the reality is that neither of the mentioned reasons can justify the latest moves in our opinion.
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Thursday, August 16, 2018
Trade War Affects on Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Since the start of the trade war, world markets have been holding their breaths with the hope that this 'spat' would be short-lived. The outlook now is that it will drag into early Q4.
It started with a sharp market run-up in January.
And by early February, the runaway stock market ran smack into spiking bond rates. Investors suddenly became worried about the economy, concerns that the huge tax cuts, could cause the economy to overheat and force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
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Friday, July 20, 2018
Custom Global Stock Market Indexes May Be Sounding Alarms / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Over the past 4+ months, we’ve been working away trying to keep our readers aware of the risks and concerns that were originating out of some foreign markets and how that might relate to the US markets. We remember a point in time back in June or July 2017 when we, suddenly, started receiving emails and calls from moderately large Indian, Indonesian and other foreign development companies asking to schedule time for an “introduction call”. It is not unusual for us to receive cold calls from development firms looking for new projects, but at one point we were getting 2 to 3 calls a week.
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Wednesday, June 20, 2018
Warning All Investors: Global Stock Market Are Shifting Away From US Price Correlation / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Well over a month ago we warned our followers of a “capital market shift” that was taking place in the global markets. Nearly 3 months before that time, we warned that China’s economy was about to enter a sustained economic downtrend cycle that could be dangerous to the global markets. Today, we offer further evidence that the global markets are, in fact, shifting away from a price correlation to the US stock market and this move could be a warning sign that emerging markets and global markets could lead the world into an extended stagflation cycle.
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Thursday, December 28, 2017
Euro Markets: ECB Stance Supports Stocks / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Global stock markets managed to garner most of the public attention in 2017, as a strong sequence of new record highs was posted in many of the most closely watched equities benchmarks. But the real question is whether or not we will see quarterly earnings performances through the next few quarters that actually support these rallies. At the macro level, we are still seeing several scenarios that support the bullish outlook in these areas. But if you are an investor that is focused on the Eurozone region, it will be critical to watch for new developments within the central bank.
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Friday, October 13, 2017
World Stock Market Indices Have Much More Upside / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The Hang Seng Stock Index is a free float, adjusted market capitalization, weighted stock Market Index in Hong Kong. The Index records and monitors daily changes of the largest companies of the Hong Kong Stock Market. It is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. These 50 constituent companies represent about 58% of the capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. At Elliottwave-Forecast, we have been tracking the Index sequences together with the FTSE 100 (The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index). FTSE 100 is the share Index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock exchange with higher market capitalisation.
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Wednesday, March 22, 2017
G20 Dilemma: Falling Trade, Soaring Stock Market, Looming Contraction / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
There is a deep chasm between America’s historical rebuff of G20 efforts, which seek to re-ignite trade, and markets, which remain at record heights. This rift is untenable.Historically, Baden-Baden’s spas are famous for their healing waters, which have healed ancient Romans’ arthritic aches, Prussian queens’ rheumatism and European aristocrats’ paralyses. Nevertheless, the G20 Summit is fresh evidence that even Baden-Baden cannot do miracles.
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Monday, October 03, 2016
Strongly Bullish US Equity Markets Will Drive Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Only one of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted a week-over-week advance, down from eight up the previous week. The S&P 500 was the sole winner with a fractional 0.17% gain. India's SENSEX was the biggest loser at -2.80%. The -1.15% average of the eight contrasts sharply with the 1.92% average for the previous week. The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. We've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.
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Monday, January 18, 2016
A Look at the Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Good Morning!
`SPX futures remained beneath its Head & Shoulders neckline overnight, despite ZeroHedge’s report of an equity futures rebound. Since that early report, SPX and Dow futures dumped. “Remember when oil was in the green (because Iran was "priced in") and stocks were in the green (because China was "fixed") this morning? Well, that's over. The dip-buying algo's reflex has run the stops, filled the gaps to unchanged and now stocks and crude are turning lower once again.
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Sunday, November 09, 2014
Major World Stock Market Indices Analysis: SPY, QQQ, DAX, FTSE, CAC, HSI / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
There can be one reason only for putting your money into the stock market and that is to earn a return on capital. Back in 2008-2009, many were faced with what would be their return OF capital once the market decline came to an end. Many never recovered their losses. For what lies ahead, from our perspective, a similar choice, but worse is in store for market participants. As context, it is worth remembering that no country can keep printing [actually now digitally creating] money-to-infinity, creating more debt than has ever existed, and with interest rates at near zero, without disastrous consequences. It defies common sense, and it defies prudent investing. Now there is a term we have not heard in quite some time. Our approach to markets is reading developing market activity in the form of price and volume without resorting to conventional technical analysis tools like moving averages, relative strength, MACD, Elliott Wave, whatever. The very best and most accurate source of information comes from the market itself, and it is available to everyone at the same time, as price and volume develop each minute, hour, day, week, month, etc, for whatever time frame one chooses.
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Thursday, July 03, 2014
Dow and FTSE100 Stock Market Updates / Commodities / Global Stock Markets
Let’s start with the Footsie daily chart.
Currently the Footsie is tracking out exactly as laid out in my previous report. That requires one more pop up into a top above the recent top of 6895 but should be held by the 1999 top of 6951. The recent drop had a couple of hits against the lower Bollinger Band and has now made its way back to the top band signifying the final move to high is now underway.
Sunday, September 22, 2013
World Stock Markets September Bounce Continues / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Courtesy of Doug Short. All seven of the eight indexes on my world watch list posted strong advances for the week. The exception was China’s Shanghai Composite, where the stock exchange was closed Thursday and Friday for Mid-Autumn Festival, and thus missed the “No-Fed-Taper Festival” celebrated by the other seven indexes.
Interestingly, the index most closely associated with Fed policy, the S&P 500, finished the week in sixth place with its 1.30% gain. Of the seven indexes open all week, only the UK’s FTSE fared worse with its fractional 0.19% advance. The big weekly winners were the three Asia-Pacific indexes (ex-Shanghai), with the 2.69% gain for India’s SENSEX besting Hong Kong’s Hang Seng by 0.13% and Japan’s Nikkei by 0.35%.
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Monday, September 02, 2013
A Generally Grim August For World Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Courtesy of Doug Short. The past week was a generally bad week for my eight focus indexes with China’s Shanghai and India’s SENSEX as the only ones posting gains. (See the four-week tables below for the complete weekly listings). The Shanghai was the top performer with its 1.99% advance. The SENSEX was a distant second with a 0.54% gain. The two eurozone indexes fared the worst, with France’s CAC 40 down 3.33% and Germany’s DAXK down 3.73%.
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Sunday, July 14, 2013
Stock Market Price Action vs Central Bank Speak Since Bernanke Taper Talk / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Benjamin Graham once said that markets are voting machines in the short-term and weighing machines in the long-term — sentiment vs fundamentals.
These days, the primary driver of sentiment tends to be central bank statements and actions — with mere statements having huge impact.
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Saturday, November 10, 2012
Stock Market Forecasts for Dow, Dax, FTSE, Kospi and ASX / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
After an election, we may expect one thing that there will not much window dressings but that is only an expectation, not guarantee. In this moment it will be hard job for US to balance between reduction in budgetary deficit and corresponding imminent recession which experts are talking about. Experts and media may talk about many things that is threatening global growth but I do feel that debt loads (especially for nations with big debt market) is one of the biggest matter that are hampering global growth, both directly and indirectly.
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Thursday, August 30, 2012
The Dogs of the Global Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The BRIC countries have long been touted by analysis and economists as the 'darlings' of the global economy. China, Brazil, Russia and India have had some of the highest GDP of any countries in the world over the past 5-10 years. These economies have all of the right fundamentals for a thriving equity markets. Yet these four countries have produced some of the worst indexes performances in the last two or three years.
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Sunday, June 17, 2012
Global Stock Markets Too Calm Before the Storm: Strength or Seduction / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Isn't it nice to have someone bigger than you to look out for your investments? You know, someone who no matter what happens in the world is always "buying the dip"; someone who is totally unphased by the events taking place in Europe, China, Japan, the US or any place on the globe. Certainly, this is a sign of great strength and faith in the Almighty Dow.
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Monday, May 21, 2012
Global Stock Markets Outlook Ahead / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
For the past week, stock markets around the globe can best be describe as ‘looks like 2008’ about to be replay. Most markets are loosing ground and in fact most recent lows are being tested or broken. In line with most of our analysis for the week ending 19th of May 2012, most markets are facing a freefall. Below is the Executive Summary for this week’s analysis of selected markets around the globe. This analysis is purely based on technical analysis and also partly with the use of spectral analysis.
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Monday, May 14, 2012
Global Stock Markets Turmoil on the Way? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Stock Markets around the world have been on a roller coaster ride for the past couple of weeks. Poor market sentiments does not augur well for the markets either. From the oil embargo in the Middle East to the debt crisis woes in Europe added more volatility to the already fragile markets.
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Sunday, May 13, 2012
Stock Market Forecast for Coming Week / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Probably this is the first time that world financial market is feeling the heat of Greek election. Election result in France was not problematic for market but post election situation in Greece is getting too much complicated. Investors were eagerly looking to get positive information from Greece but they were disappointed with the outcomes, in fact still there is no outcome. Market is calculating on different options, especially after remark from German finance minister.
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Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Europe Sinking...USA Holding... / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Over the weekend, we saw some terrible news come out of the Euro-zone with regards to manufacturing and economic growth. The news was particularly bad in that the numbers weren't supposed to be any good to begin with, so when the numbers came even worse than that, the whole Euro-zone took it on the chin with losses nearing three percent across the board. Some worse than others, of course, but the average was nearly three percent. Ugly as can be. With news that bad, and with the Euro-zone getting smoked, we were unable to avoid the carnage pre-market. Our futures looked pretty bad, but nowhere near as bad as the losses being seen across Europe.
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Sunday, October 30, 2011
Emerging Stock Markets Telegraphing Trouble in 2012 / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
During the last global long wave winter season that occurred in the 1930s and 1940s major economic changes took place that were similar to what the global economy is experiencing today. The big glaring difference at that time was that free market capitalism was losing vast swaths of global markets to communism, dictatorship and stifling socialism. During this long wave winter a new middle-class that numbers in the billions is coming on stream in emerging markets, greatly countering the long wave forces at work. Presently however, stock markets in emerging markets are signaling that investor expectations got ahead of the final long wave turn into a new long wave spring.
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Monday, October 10, 2011
Can Stock Markets Find the Road Back to Positive Territory? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
As we began last quarter, we asked: “Is the market set to take off?” In a world full of uncertainty during the third quarter, global investors gave a definitive answer: No.
U.S. stock markets suffered through the worst quarter since 2008, with the S&P 500 Index dropping nearly 14 percent for the quarter; more than half of this drop occurred in September alone. Only 54 companies in the S&P 500 saw positive returns during the month, while more than 200 dropped at least 20 percent, TheStreet.com reports.
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Global Stock Market Sell-Off Strategy: Blend Winners and Losers / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Carl Delfeld writes: No question, the global stock sell-off has been brutal, hitting high-quality growth markets and weak performers alike.
But while global emerging markets as a group, via the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (NYSE: EEM), are down about 12 percent so far in 2011, a few countries are bucking the downtrend and remain in positive territory.
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Friday, July 22, 2011
Why Foreign Markets Are Better Bets Than US! / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
It has been my expectation that slowing global economies, rising inflation, record government debt, austerity measures being undertaken globally, and the end of the Fed’s QE2 stimulus, would result in stock market corrections in this year’s summer season before the global bull market resumes in the fall. My downside target has been a decline of 17% or so for the Dow and S&P 500.
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Wednesday, July 20, 2011
U.S. and European Policymakers Help Improve Stock Market Leadership / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
News coming from the United States and Europe has once again changed the tone in a fast-pasted market. On our side of the pond, the Wall Street Journal reported:
Read full article... Read full article...President Barack Obama, in a last-ditch bid for a bipartisan “grand bargain” on the budget, threw his weight Tuesday behind a $3.7 trillion deficit-reduction plan unveiled by six Republican and Democratic senators.
Monday, July 18, 2011
Global Stock Markets Pointing Towards Nasty Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
When ignoring the day-to-day noise and focusing on the intermediate to longer term, all the pieces in the puzzle are lining up for another significant cyclical bear market. Yes, policy makers will do everything in their power to prevent it, just like they did in 2007 and 2008. Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, Fannie and Freddie Mac - there were government interventions and guarantees all along the way. All to no avail, although the United States apparatchiks and bankstaz did manage to waste a lot of other people's money. Now it is Europe's turn to bail out that which shouldn't be bailed out in order to save the elite from the losses incurred on their maniacal gambling. When you know you're going to be bailed out at the first sign of trouble, why not be as reckless as possible in the quest for ever increasing profits?
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Saturday, April 23, 2011
The Global Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Wild week for most equity markets worldwide. Entering monday’s US opening foreign markets were lower, and then made a bigger drop when S&P downgraded US debt to negative watch. No comment. The US market gapped down at the opening to new pullback lows. By 11:00, however, the selling was over and the market rallied into the end of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.3%, and the NDX/NAZ were +2.3%. Asian markets gained 0.6%, European markets added 0.7%, the Commodity equity group rose 0.8%, and the DJ World index rallied 1.7%. Bonds were +0.1%, Crude gained 2.1%, Gold made new all time highs +1.2%, and the USD lost 1.1%.
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Monday, March 28, 2011
Optimistic Investors and Eager Fund Managers Will Fuel Global Market Growth / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Jon D. Markman writes: Despite a significant amount of global turmoil, markets are surging ahead and giving interested investors nice returns.
Stocks motored briskly higher over the past week with a devil-may-care attitude, shrugging off renewed concerns about European debt, bad news on the nuclear emergency in Japan, intensified air-to-ground fighting in Libya, renewed unrest in Syria and several undesirable data points on the U.S. economic recovery.
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Thursday, February 03, 2011
Global Stock Markets Strong Supportive Tone Continues / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Global equity markets continue to carry a strong supportive tone into Q1. The percentage of rising stocks within the broad-based NYSE is holding above 80%, which represents an overly bullish reading.
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Monday, December 20, 2010
U.S. Stocks Retake Leadership Role as Emerging Markets Stumble / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Jon D. Markman writes: Stocks tiptoed through a typically introspective, no drama December week in the past five days, with the Dow Jones Industrials rising 0.7%, and the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 all rising about a third of a percent.
While an 0.3% gain doesn't sound like much for a week, it is actually a great result. If the market were up 0.3% every week for 52 weeks, it would be up 17% for the year without dividends, which is about double the long-term average. And just to round out that idea, if the market were up 17% every year for 10 years, it would end the decade up 380%. Small amounts add up due to the magic of compounding.
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Thursday, December 16, 2010
Debt Crisis Dangers Still Plagues Global Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
While the US markets continue to churn in place awaiting some leadership the global markets are struggling. The resolution (bailout) relative to Ireland’s sovereign debt in November sparked a rally off the lows. The result has been a move higher recapturing nearly two-thirds of the loses incurred. However, we are now testing the move and may retest the low again. Why the renewed struggle? Ireland voted to approve the bailout! If they had voted against the bailout they would have likely defaulted on their debt. What would the market reactions to that have been? But if they accept the bailout the global markets sell anyway? Sometimes logic doesn’t apply to what actions investors take.
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Saturday, December 11, 2010
Inflation Cures What It Doesn’t Kill / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The US and China seem to be at opposite polarity. The US rulers are trying to inflate the economy and thereby reflate the stock indices. China is trying to deflate the economy and thereby restrain their stock index. To Ben Bernanke’s credit, he has been specific about his desire to see inflation rise in the US. To his discredit, real inflation is already locked in with a rear naked choke hold that is turning the consumers face blue already.
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Monday, October 11, 2010
Global Stocks Set to Surge Higher / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Jon D. Markman writes: Indices across the world rose last week in what looks to be the beginning of a historic stock rally.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.6% last week, while the overseas developed-world large-caps - represented by the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US exchange-traded fund (NYSE: VEU) - rose 2.4%. Meanwhile, the iShares Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: EEM) rose 1.7%, the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI) rose 3%, the iShares MSCI Switzerland Index fund (NYSE: EWL) rose 3%, and the iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund (NYSE: EWA) rose 3.6%.
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Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Marc Faber Global Stock Markets Heading for an Imminent Strong Correction / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Marc Faber discusses the stock market and the economic outlook for 2010 and concerned about the U.S. Debt bubble.
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Saturday, October 10, 2009
Why Stock Market Has Been Going Up / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
We have gotten so many emails from visitors and members on this blog in response to our earlier article Market Crash Alert for Nifty - StocksBuddy.com Exclusive asking us as to what is the main reason though for this market rally. Most visitors stated that the fundamentals and valuations do not match up and the hope that folks and FII's are showing may not be really real. Some even stated that this is forming of another bubble while we are still winding up from the previous bubble.
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Thursday, September 17, 2009
The Asian-Pacific The European Stock Market Short Term Updates / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Greetings,
Elliott Wave International have just announced the beginning of their wildly popular FreeWeek event, where they throw open the doors to some of their most popular paid services to non-subscribers for one week only.
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Sunday, August 30, 2009
Stock Market Investors Still Climbing A Wall of Fear / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Many of the major world indices are highly correlated and move in tandem following a move in the same direction and forming a similar pattern in time, at least in 60-70% of the observations. There is quite some research done and available on the Internet on this stock market “synchronicity” phenomenon. In the current bullish counter trend since March 2009 many of the world indices are moving in tandem, nicely following a similar path and pattern in time. This stock market synchronicity phenomenon can be an aid in pinpointing the likely target in time or price for stock markets to change direction in the near future.
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Saturday, August 22, 2009
What the Autumn May Bring For the Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
History has a habit of repeating itself. Markets also, follow a similar pattern as history can show. As Summer draws to close, as we enter Autumn, I feel we are in for another action packed time, similar to the close of 2008. Optimism is in the air all around with a complete turnaround of sentiment. When the majority are optimistic, its best to go against the tide and September and October are historically torrid times for the markets.
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Friday, August 21, 2009
Stock Markets Bailout Bubble, What's On the Horizon? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
OVERVIEW - STOCK prices around the world recently hit their highest levels for this year, buoyed by a wave of optimism about prospects for a global economic recovery - only to fall back to a three-month low this week on fresh doubts about the sustainability of that recovery. So, is it 'for real' or is it destined to run out of steam? The Business Times empanelled a team of key experts to answer this critical question, and to tell us whether the world faces a threat of inflation, deflation or stagflation in the coming months. There were mixed views on the prospects for equity markets, but interestingly, everyone on the panel was bullish about gold.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 20, 2009
China Stock Market Panic, Investors Don't Ignore! / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Money Morning - With China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) now down about 20% from its Aug. 4 peak - a decline punctuated by a 4.3% drop yesterday (Wednesday) - the Red Dragon’s stock market is technically now in bear-market territory.
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Friday, July 24, 2009
Stock Market Experiences an Amazing Two Weeks! / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Just two weeks ago, global stock markets, including the U.S. market, had been down four weeks in a row, seemingly ending their big rally off their March lows.
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Sunday, June 28, 2009
Global Stock Market Performance and P/E Ratio Valuations / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Bespoke: Country P/E ratios “Yesterday we released a report taking a look at valuations, growth expectations, and stock market performance for more than 20 countries that have trackable ETFs. The report highlights which countries currently look the most and least attractive based on various characteristics. One simple data set highlighted was the current P/E ratios for these countries. Below is a chart showing these valuations.
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Sunday, June 21, 2009
G2: A Tale of Two Countries, U.S. and China Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The United States and China are referred to now as the G2; whose twists and turns dominate world economic dialogue, and perhaps outcomes. They are a study in contrasts economically, politically, demographically, socially, in terms of national balance sheet, GDP growth, government roles in business, and more. A side-by-side comparison of the charts for two proxy funds (SPY and FXI) is also a study in contrasts.
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Sunday, May 24, 2009
Stock Market Trend Confusion and U.S. Dollar Crackdown / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
John Hussman (Hussman Funds): Stock market advance - “leadership by losers”
“As of last week, the market climate for stocks remained characterized by mixed valuations - modestly overvalued on the basis of most fundamental measures except those that assume a sustained return to the record profit margins of 2007, and slightly undervalued if one assumes that a return to those profit margins is a given.
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Thursday, April 23, 2009
Think That Central Banks Move the Markets? Think Again / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The following is excerpted from Elliott Wave International’s Global Market Perspective. The full 120-page publication, which features forecasts for every major world market, is available free until April 30. Visit Elliott Wave International to download it FREE.
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Monday, April 20, 2009
Are global stock markets on the road to recovery? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Another week goes by, and world markets put more distance between current levels and the lows of March. The broad S&P 500 managed to register its sixth positive week on the trot, something that would have seemed impossible just a month ago. Leading the charge has been the resurgent financial sector with major US banks beating analysts’ estimates with their latest earnings announcements.
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Monday, April 13, 2009
A Good Holy Week for the Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Against all expectations, stock markets around the world managed to extend their winning streak and close up for the 5th week in a row. It was a choppy week until Friday when US markets pushed hard to close at their highs of the week.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 30, 2009
The Stock Market is trapped within the Yin and Yang phenomenon / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
After a volatile 5 days, world stock markets just managed to close last 5 days in the black. It was a week of two halves with the good work from the start of the week being undone in the second half as traders slipped into reverse gear on Thursday and Friday. At least markets managed to hold the gains from the previous week which in the context of the bear market is no mean feat.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Global Stock Markets Extend Gains on Money Printing / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Following Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's “money printing” announcement of last week, the action stayed on Capitol Hill with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner detailing his Public Private Investment Program (PPIP) as well the initial salvo on “new rules of the game” for the US's broken system of financial regulation.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 09, 2009
Will the Stock Markets Break the Four-week Losing Streak? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Last week, major stock markets marked their fourth losing week in a row. The Dow fell 6.2% on the week while the S&P 500 fell 7%. Both major indices have now fallen 24% in 2009 alone, with the S&P 500 hitting its lowest level since September 1996. Gold closed the week unchanged after a volatile week that saw it dip below $900 briefly. Oil managed to gain slightly, holding above the $45 marker.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 08, 2009
Global Stock Markets Favour Stimulus Over Bad Economic Data / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Global stock markets shrugged off dire news on the US employment front, arguing that the gloomy data would hasten US lawmakers' passage of a stimulus package. After falling for four straight weeks and recording the worst performance of the major US indices for January on record, Wall Street reversed course on the back of a stimulus-induced rally.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Stock Markets Hit by Barrage of Bleak Economic and Corporate Data / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Investor sentiment around the globe was negatively impacted during 2009's second full week of trading as a barrage of bleak economic and corporate news offered more confirmation of a deepening recession, bringing risk aversion to center stage.
The US dollar and government bonds (excluding emerging markets and countries on the periphery of the Eurozone) gained, but global equities and commodities were on the defensive as nervous investors tried to gauge the likely damage of the economic malaise.
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Sunday, January 11, 2009
Global Stock Markets Spluttered Due to Dreadful Economic Data / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Global stock markets reversed course during the last three days of the first full trading week of 2009 as investors were confronted with dreadful economic data, escalating layoffs and a bleak earnings outlook. As investor sentiment soured, the MSCI World Index and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined by 2.5% and 1.7% respectively during “turnaround week”.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 05, 2009
Stock Markets Get Stimulated, Again / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Santa may have skipped Wall Street this year but (Saint) Obama's stimulus package, which seems to be growing like Topsy, has brought some New Year's cheer. It now seems certain that the new deal will include tax breaks / cuts of up to $310bn (out of a total package of $775-850bn).Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 05, 2009
Stock Markets Suffer Their Worst Run for Generations / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The final week of 2008 passed with many markets recording their worst annual performance for generations. Equities finished above their lows, but still finished down by at least 30%. The S&P 500 closed 2008 down 38%, while the Nikkei closed down over 40%. The ‘lost decade’ rolls on ever more for the Japanese stock market.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 04, 2009
Stock Market Investors Buying Beaten Down Stocks / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Changing the digits on the calendar from '08 to '09 may not have transformed the dire outlook for the global economy, but during the holiday-shortened New Year week investors appeared adamant to put the rout of 2008 behind them.
Although mercifully the door has been closed on 2008, let's recap some of the unprecedented movements experienced in financial markets during the year.
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Friday, January 02, 2009
2008 a Humiliating Year for Global Investors, Grim Outlook for 2009 / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Good-bye 2008: Wish We Never Knew Ya! - Much like an embarrassing family member or friend, or humiliating past pictures taken of you in a ridiculous outfit or pose, we'd all like to pretend that 2008 never happened and it was just a figment of our imagination.
Personally, we've had friends lose their jobs, watch their business nosedive, pull their hair at sharply reduced retirement incomes and/or be abandoned by their wives. And everyone's investment portfolio got blasted to one degree or another.
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Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Stock Market Internals Point to Continuing Base Building into 2009 / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
As investors ring out the old year, trading volume should remain light until battle-weary traders return from the holidays next week. Not much weight should therefore be placed on market movements during this “thin” period, and the S&P 500 Index will probably not deviate a great deal from its three-week trading range.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Stock Market Anticipating Recovery During 2009 / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Recession: A reason to Rejoice ? What would normally be a time of happiness and cheer this holiday season has become instead an occasion of gloom and foreboding for many. At every turn we hear dire predictions of pending calamities to befall the economy in 2009. Prophecies of another Great Crash like the one of 1929 are repeated with such frequency that they are now believed by one and all.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Stock Markets Santa Rally Fails to Materialise / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Stocks obviously don't know it's Christmas time. They finished with their fifth straight day's loss as the Dow shed 1.2% in extremely skinny volume. The banks & GM led the way down again.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Stock Markets Still Waiting for Santa Claus Rally / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The markets started out with a nice push higher early on, as futures were higher before the opening. They stair-stepped up in a small 5-wave advance and reached 1205 on the Nasdaq 100 and 880 on the S&P 500, but weren't able to do much more after the first hour. They then rolled over hard in the morning, bounced around during mid-day, couldn’t mount an advance, and then rolled over and made session lows with about an hour to go. Over the last hour they did come back a bit, but not enough to save the day.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Bullish Global Stock Markets Climb a Wall of Worry / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Despite a litany of bleak economic and corporate news confronting investors during the past week, global stock markets digested the bearish fodder with a sense of aplomb. The MSCI World Index and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 4.4% and 10.9% respectively on the week, with other reflation trades such as gold (+9.1%) and oil (+20.4%) also putting in a strong performance.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Return of the Boring “Normal” Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
After a year plus when we have become comfortable with wild intra swings, it seemed odd to have a day when nothing happened twice . Equities, lead by energy and commodity stocks, finished modestly higher in thin end of year trading.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Plunging Domestic and Global Funds Money Flows / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Mutual fund money flows, which are a good indicator of overall retail investor market views, have been strongly negative in recent months. Global and international equity funds have experienced greater negative money flows than domestic US mutual funds this year. Until the 2008 market drops, US equity funds received lower money inflows than global and international funds.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Stock Markets Finding More Promising Signs of a Turnaround / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
As the final month of 2008 begins, let's look back at November -- a month that featured a number of promising signs that a market recovery could be drawing nearer.
U.S. markets— According to probability models from Thomas Weisel, the S&P 500 has been a “Buy” since November 21, the day that index closed at 800. They say a verification could come in early December, when monthly liquidity figures come out—if there is extreme positive liquidity to accompany the technical “Buy” signal, history shows that on average there's a six-month price rally of 18.5 percent.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Is the tide turning for the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
I posed the following question a few days ago: “ Does the stock market rally have legs? ” We have now had four days in a row of a higher market, something we have not seen since June this year. This is also the S&P 500 Index's biggest four-day surge (+18.0%) since 1933.
A sharply weaker opening yesterday as a result of a barrage of gloomy economic reports was followed by a reversal on the news of former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker's appointment to a new White House Economic Recovery Advisory Board tasked to revive growth in the US. Involving the 81-year Volcker in this way is a smart move by President-elect Obama.
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Monday, November 17, 2008
Critical Week for Global Stock Markets and Economic Recovery / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
We have pointed out several times that we think the recovery from the current recession will be U-shaped, with several tests of the low before a likely bottom is reached and a sustainable rally can begin.
According to recent research from JP Morgan, the next week or so could be an important period of time for the stock market.
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Monday, November 17, 2008
Financial Markets Drama Continues as Eurozone Falls into Recession / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
World stock markets took another tumble last week with the major US indices penetrating the October lows intraday. The FTSE finished the week down around 4%, but it was UK plc that took a battering. The Pound fell to record lows against the European single currency, even breaking through the synthetic Euro/ Deutsche Mark lows from 1996.The week's action was all the more damning considering the Eurozone's admission that it too is in a recession. The Euro managed to end the slightly down against the dollar, but the pound plunged through the 1.5000 level for the first time since 2002. However there is still some way to go before the low of 1.3685 from 2001 is breached.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Volatile Stock Markets Heading for Possible Mid 2009 Rebound / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: In the 20 years I've been creating stock-market forecasts, I've never seen such a contradictory set of forces at work in the markets all at one time. I could just as easily make the case that we're finally nearing a bottom, as I could that we're in for protracted downturn punctuated by sharp, quick drops.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Global Stock Market Rampant Buy Signals / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): First deflation – then inflation“Deflation/Inflation. First deflation – then inflation. I don't have to convince you that we're now dealing with world deflation. Copper is down 35% this year, cotton down 32%, oil down 26%, platinum down 43%, orange juice down 44%, wheat down 35%, gasoline is now around $3 a gallon, stocks have collapsed, autos are cheaper, home prices have plummeted, suburbs are hanging out ‘for sale' signs. No price is firm – you can make an offer for anything, and you're likely to get it at your bid price.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Global Stock Markets Get Halloween Relief / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
I will be covering a global stock market performance round-up after the month end, but thought it would make for interesting reading to briefly review the action of the past three days.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 13, 2008
Financial Markets Crash Greatest Opportunity in History! / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
- Monetary Tsunami Unfolding
- The Devil's Spawn
- Marxism Descending on America
- Bonds, er Bombs Away
- Stock Market Cycles by Peter Eliades and Garret Jones
Things are unfolding in rapid-fire manner and it's hard to address all the issues you must keep in mind. But the one you must keep front and center is that this is the GREATEST opportunity in history for those that keep their wits about them, and an opportunity of historic proportions is on the table. In the early 1930's Joe Kennedy turned his personal net worth from $4 million to over $100,000,000 in a matter of a few short years. YOU can do this yourself if you are NIMBLE, PREPARED and DO NOT succumb to FEAR (false evidence appearing real). You cannot be a deer in the headlights and become roadkill, as most investors are about to do. The mainstream and financial media are attempting to lead you to your demise.
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Sunday, October 12, 2008
Jim Cramer Time to Get Out of Stock Market a Buy Signal? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Casey's Charts: Market mayhem has the Fed off balance“The Fed has resorted to new extremes in this financial crisis by selling off and lending its good assets, US Treasuries, in exchange for toxic waste. The result: the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has been completely restructured – including innovative off-balance-sheet hocus-pocus – and looks like it's headed for exhaustion.
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Friday, October 10, 2008
Stock Market Crash 2008 Performance Round-up / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
I normally publish a performance review of global stock markets at the end of each month, but the meltdown around the world of the past few days necessitated an update.
“If a man does not know what port he is steering for, no wind is favorable to him,” said philosopher Seneca in 4 BC 65 AD. Why am I constantly reminded of this quote when looking at some of the rather haphazard actions taken by governments to alleviate the financial turmoil?
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Friday, September 19, 2008
Conditions Ripe For Huge Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
"The great secret of success in life is for a man to be ready when his opportunity comes." Benjamin Disraeli
In a difficult time for investors, it is refreshing to report a ray of hope in the charts below. In addition to the positive technical developments, two fundamental developments may help the market find an intermediate bottom:
Thursday, September 18, 2008
China, Russia Governments Intervene to Halt Stock Market Panic / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
On the heels of Central Banks announcing Global Coordinated Liquidity Measures , China and Russia have both announced plans to intervene directly in the equity markets.Let's take a look at both countries starting with Russia Pledges $20 Billion for Stocks, Cuts Oil Tax .
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 15, 2008
Stock Markets Fizzle Out After Freddie and Fannie Bailout Rally / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
A week that showed so much promise ended up being a huge let down. A lot of ink was spent on the take over of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae by the US government, and it allowed equity markets around the world to open the first trading day up 3%. This sadly didn't last, as traders realized quickly that this take over was akin to putting a band-aid over a third degree burn; it was not a long term solutionRead full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 08, 2008
Stock Market Over Valued, Over Bought ETF's and Emerging Market Bargains / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Bill King (The King Report): Albert Edwards – economic and equity market meltdown imminent“Last week saw the publication of Q2 US whole economy profits data. They were shockingly bad. Core measures of profitability are in free-fall and have now reached a tipping point, where corporate activity could easily implode. We have also reached the point where companies give up ‘manipulating' their profits higher and admit they are actually in free-fall. A combination of economic and reported profits slumping will catalyse the next equity downleg.”
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Saturday, September 06, 2008
Global Stock Markets, Commodities, and the Economic Downturn / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Back in 2006 and 2007 everywhere we turned we heard about China and their enormous consumption of commodities and why the Chinese were largely responsible for fueling the commodity boom. During this same time, we were seeing one of the longest extensions of the 4-year cycle in US stock market history. Then, between July and October of 2007 we began to see a Dow theory non-confirmation occur. By November this non-confirmation had evolved into a full blown orthodox Dow theory bearish trend change.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Global Stock Markets Decimated: China Retraces 75% of Gains of Last 3 years / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
“All the things they said would happen to you
Don't you know they're all coming true
Goin' nowhere fast
“Nothing's strange as when it seems
You're living out all your worst possible dreams
Goin' nowhere fast”
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Global Stock Market Risks Increase / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Earlier this month, the Russian stock exchange index plummeted with the news that Putin has elected an ex-KGB officer with no prior mining experience as CEO for the Russian nickel mining giant Norilsk (it has since continued to slide). Such events explain the recent weaknesses among Russian stocks and ADRs trading on the NYSE. Coincidentally, it occurs while the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae debacle is still fresh on investors' minds.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 02, 2008
Stock Market Battles Between Technical's and Fundamentals / News_Letter / Global Stock Markets
Stocks bounced from extreme oversold levels just over a week ago, the imminent low was called for the Dow index on the 14th July, which laid a rough road map for a volatile stocks rally into September 2008. However technical's are at the mercy of two key fundamentals and those are corporate earnings and the deepening credit crisis.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 28, 2008
Stock Market Battles Between Technical's and Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Stocks bounced from extreme oversold levels just over a week ago, the imminent low was called for the Dow index on the 14th July, which laid a rough road map for a stocks rally into September 2008. However technical's are at the mercy of two key fundamentals and those are corporate earnings and the deepening credit crisis.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Stock Markets Endure Another Volatile Week / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Markets endured another volatile week, with US markets had a better time of it than their European counterparts. There were some clear psychological levels in play last week, as markets fell to fresh multi year lows, before recovering in the second half of the week. The Dow hit 11,000 for the first time since July 2006, and the S&P 500 hit 1,200 for the first time since October 2005. The CAC came close to hitting 4,000 for the first time since May 2005, the Dax hit 6000 for the first time since October 2006, and the FTSE reached its lowest point for over three years.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 21, 2008
Global Stock Markets Dancing to the Same Bearish Tune / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Factoring in last week's stock market rebound, I have put together a table of global stock markets' performances over various measurement periods and in both local currency and US dollar terms. The numbers speak for themselves and can best be summarized in a single sentence: Despite the variation in the economic impact of the credit crunch, stock markets have by and large been dancing to the same tune.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Stocks Bear Market Decline Over? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): Is the decline over?
“So is the decline over? Anything is possible, but we still have not seen the kind of action that has ended almost every bear market of the last 75 years, according to the Lowry's studies. These previous declines have been characterized by a series of 90% down-days, with the last 90% down-day quickly followed by a 90% up-day.
“Since the May peak, we have seen only two 90% down days – June 6 and June 26. As I said, the ‘normal' situation at the final bottom of a true bear market is a 90% down-day quickly followed by a 90% up-day. So far, this has not occurred.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Understanding the Gravity of Current Stock Market Crisis Condition.. / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Many investors don't look at the long term picture of what is happening. I am talking about looking at
10 to 20 year periods of time. If you looked that far out on a number of key stocks and indexes, you would understand the gravity of the current condition we are in.
This morning, we will look at 6 long term charts that will give you a clearer picture of the incredible damage that has occurred to our financial structure and economy. As you will see in the last paragraphs, there is also an important message behind today's analysis.
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Friday, July 11, 2008
All Broad Equity Indices Are Down / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
There is plenty of bad business news out there, including with icons such as GE, AIG, banks of all sorts, municipal bond insurance companies and more.
Consumers are squeezed by energy, food prices, falling home prices and limitations on credit — and municipalities aren't apparently limiting their budget growth (and taxes) in line with their tax payers growth in income.
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Thursday, July 03, 2008
Global Stock Markets Technicals Dangerous / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
White knuckles and shaky knees abound as the bear's growl grows louder.
While on the road in Switzerland (where even the gnomes are gloomy), I have put together a table of global stock markets' performance – over various measurement periods and in both local currency and US dollar terms. The numbers speak for themselves and can best be summarized in a single sentence: “Nowhere to hide.” The Wall Street “leash effect” remained paramount, and decoupling nothing more than a theoretical myth.
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Friday, June 27, 2008
Global Stock Markets Plunge on Soaring Crude Oil Price / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Eyes wide open - How could Wall Street brokers tell their clients that auction-rate securities were “…very safe and liquid as possible,” Yet underwriters from the same company telling issuers that demand was softening and demanded higher interest rates. At least 24 proposed class-action lawsuits have been filed against brokerages since March, and a nine-state task force is examining how the firms marketed the securities. Those burned in the meltdown see it as a case of Wall Street hiding known risks from investors, much like the dot-com scandal over former Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Henry Blodget , who once advised buying a stock while privately calling it ``junk.''Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 23, 2008
Global Stock Markets Portfolio Weighting Allocation / Portfolio / Global Stock Markets
When you establish the equities allocation within your portfolio, your macro-level decision may begin with an allocation between US stocks, non-US developed market stocks, and emerging market stocks (and a for some investors, frontier market stocks).
Canada:
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Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Global Stock Markets Low Expected Towards End of June / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
On April 29, I wrote a research report called "Loaming low in June for equity markets. It is time for increased caution". This article was about the expected major market trough that develops approximately every five to six months. Now that June has arrived, what has happened to the markets? After a weak rise in the first half of May, global stock markets began selling off sharply in the second half of the month. With downward pressure continuing into early June, world financial markets have dropped approximately 7% since mid-May. And with the technical low anticipated by late June, lower numbers can be expected over the next two weeks.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
How to Protect Your Portfolio from the US Fed Rear View Mirror Actions / Portfolio / Global Stock Markets
There's one thing you can almost always count on with the government: Coming late to the party.
The release of the U.S. Federal Reserve's minutes from the April 29 and 30 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) included several “pronouncements,” none of which you're hearing from the mainstream press and all of which we here at Money Morning told you were coming months ago.
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Monday, June 02, 2008
What is the Hemline Theory telling us about stock markets? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Just for a bit of fun …
The length of women's skirts tells you the way the market is going to go, according to the so-called “hemline theory”.
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Sunday, May 11, 2008
Stocks- Sell in May and Go Away? / News_Letter / Global Stock Markets
Dear Subscriber,
This weeks newsletter looks at the stock markets trend during the summer months and especially in light of the "Sell in May and Go Away" adage. Meaning to sell stocks during May with a view to buying them back again some time during September.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 05, 2008
Credit Crisis Worst is Over- We'll Believe It When We See It! / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
"Sell in May" says the old stock market adage, but the bulls were in no mood for old wives' tales last week. Markets were in rally mode after the better than expected US jobs report, and news of more liquidity injections from the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve did what most traders were expecting them to do in cutting rates another quarter percent down to 2%.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 03, 2008
Stocks- Sell in May and Go Away? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
This weeks newsletter looks at the stock markets trend during the summer months and especially in light of the "Sell in May and Go Away" adage. Meaning to sell stocks during May with a view to buying them back again some time during September.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Stock Markets Headed Lower into June-Sell in May and Go Away / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The old stock trader's saying of “sell in May and walk away” appears to be unfolding right on schedule this year. And with the expected major low coming in June, for the next 2 months, investors may wish to sit on the sidelines to watch the show and keep their investing on hold. If the last three major lows (March 2007, August 2007 and January 2008) were any example, the trough in June could be quite interesting. No one can say that this market is boring.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Global Investing Roundups- China Buys 1% of Oil Giant BP / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Wholesale Prices Soar; U.S. Bancorp Sees Earnings Slide; Johnson & Johnson Enjoys 40% Jump in Profit; China Buys 1% of BP for $1.7 Billion; Brazil's Retail Sales Hit Four-Year Record; Crocs Stock Drops; Intel Profit Down; Big Loss for WaMuRead full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Gold Correction Continues Lower on Break Below $900 / Commodities / Global Stock Markets
Gold is down in Asian and early trading in London this morning. Gold was down $14.40 to $916.20 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday while silver was down 62 cents to $17.16 per ounce. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $897.00, £453.90 and €572.32 (from $937.25, £472.17 €592.82 yesterday).Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 28, 2008
Global Stock Markets Index Movements Since Highs / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
I posted a scorecard for a number of global stock markets a week ago, showing the index movements since each of the respective market's highs. This short post provides an update, but this time also showing returns in US dollar and euro rather than only in local currency terms.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Global Stock Markets P/E Ratio and Prospective Growth Analysis for 2008 / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The sharp drops in global stock markets has led to a fall in the current price earnings ratio's, however this fall needs to be tempered against lower GDP and earnings growth forecasts as the sharp US economic slowdown will impact most economies to varying degrees, shaving between 1.5% to 3% off the growth rates of many emerging markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Global Stock Market Forecasts and Outlook for 2008 / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Given current uncertainty and volatility, it is more difficult than usual to project an outlook for the global stock markets 12 months forward, therefore to be able to generate an outlook there is first a need to arrive at key assumptions that will impact on stock prices going forward before I turn my attention to the technical picture contained within the stock charts.
Key Assumptions
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Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Stock Market Technical Breakdowns May Call For More Investor Hedging / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
“I think the necessity of being ready increases.” Abraham Lincoln - Based on recent technical breakdowns in many risk-based investments (see Graph 1), the probability of investors incurring additional losses over an extended period of time has increased. Both the technical and fundamental outlook now favors bearish outcomes over bullish outcomes. In addition to the cash we have raised in recent months, it is now prudent to prepare for the possibility of adding additional hedging vehicles to our portfolios. While favorable outcomes are still possible, they are no longer probable. As illustrated in Graph 2, a continued slow migration away from risk and toward more bearish hedging vehicles may be warranted if conditions continue to deteriorate.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Banking Index and Shanghai Stock Market Index at Critical Levels / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
We have previously pointed out that the financial and banking sectors are very important relative to the S&P 500 for a very good reason ... and the reason is that financial's make up 20% of all the S&P 500 stocks.
So, the first chart we will look at today is the Banking Index. The Index has been in a bear market since February of 2007 when it dropped from its peak. Like all down trends, the index has continued to make Lower/Highs and Lower/Lows.
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Monday, January 28, 2008
Questioning The Global Stock Market Growth Metric / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Previously, tactics employed yesterday by price managers to squeeze stocks higher worked well on a prolonged basis, but because bearish traders are not willing to fall for this anymore means rallies are fleeting. (More on this below.) And Da Boyz used up quite a few cards yesterday for a meager 10-point gain in the S&P 500 (SPX), with the most notables in addition to the Bernanke promise of lower rates (meaning it's now discounted in the market) being the rumor Bank Of America is buying Countrywide Financial (meaning this too is now discounted in the market), along with American Airlines raising the pot by opening merger talks. Of course, neither of these sound bites will do anything to help an increasingly stressed consumer, the larger credit crunch, nor increasing cases of insolvency in the end.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Bullish for Stock Markets When Economy Hits Bottom / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Sixteen years ago, I was fortunate to work on what I still consider to be one of the best guides to understanding the stock market for US investors: “Market Timing for the Nineties” by Stephen Leeb.At first glance, this book is dated automatically by its title. Its basic premise, however, applies to any decade. In fact, it's more relevant than ever here in 2008, where recession worries have taken over the market mood.
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Wednesday, January 16, 2008
How Do You Spell Stock Market Correction? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
During every correction, I encourage investors to avoid the destructive inertia that results from trying to determine: "How low can we go?" and/or "How long will this last?" Investors who add to their portfolios during downturns invariably experience higher values during the next advance. Yes, Virginia, just as certainly as there is a Santa Claus, there is another market advance in our future. And despite a still much too high DJIA, we are in the seventh month of a correction. (The eighth month if you own income securities.)Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Important Stock Market Investment Drivers for 2008: A Tale of Two Halves / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The beginning of a new year is a good time to make a new assessment of the important investment drivers and themes for the year. If you want to beat the market it is important to understand what is driving the markets and where are the best sectors to find good opportunities. By identifying these factors you will have a solid framework to assess the impact market movements and news events on your investment strategy. This is the first of a five part series on the outlook for the 2008 markets. The first part will discuss the key drivers ending with a mention of what sectors will benefit and those that will be hurt.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Stock and Investment Markets Outlook for 2008 / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Gazing into the crystal ball for investing in 2008 - Cash may be king for the moment but financial experts favour a plunge back into equity markets later in the year
A 'YEAR of fear' for portfolio investors - or a time of great opportunity? This is the question The Business Times put to a panel of financial experts as 2007 draws to a close. Their answers contained some surprises. Cash may be king for the moment, in the immediate aftermath of the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, and the worst is yet to come in equity markets.
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Tuesday, December 11, 2007
The Final Interest Rate Cut of 2007 / Interest-Rates / Global Stock Markets
Housing news and interest rate decisions dominated headlines and market sentiment yet again last week. Its easy to forget that there were times when this wasn't the case.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 29, 2007
US Economy in Serious Trouble Whilst Asia Booms - What it Means For Your Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The U.S. is not only sneezing, it's struggling to breathe with a bad lung infection. Failing real estate and mortgage markets might just cause the worst recession this country has ever seen.
Meanwhile, to the south in Latin America and to the east in Asia, the world is witnessing huge economic revolutions and spectacular growth.
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Thursday, November 22, 2007
Stock Market Seasonality – Historical Data, Trends & Market Timing / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
We are entering what has historically been the best season to be invested in the stock market. According to Ned Davis Research if an individual invested $1,000 in the S&P 500 index from November 1 st to April 30 th every year from 1950 to 2006 – the ‘winter season' – and held cash in their account for the remainder of each year the account would be worth an astonishing $38,700 before tax considerations.
If, over the same 56 year period, an investor had invested the $1,000 in the S&P 500 index from May 1 st to October 31 st – the ‘summer season' – and held cash in their account for the remainder of each year the account would be worth $916. During that 56 year period an investor in the stock market using this seasonality strategy would have lost money.
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Sunday, November 18, 2007
Global Disparities Put Crack Up Inflationary Boom At Risk / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The oil market is out of control according to OPEC, where to go along with crude prices rapidly approaching $100 , China is having to raise fuel prices because of shortages. So, what's really happening here outside of what we will dub ‘pathetic' news coverage? As observed earlier in the week , with the Fed rapidly creating monetary aggregates to bailout it's floundering economy, US trading partners are having to compensate by upping their own currency debasement rates, as was openly admitted by Hong Kong authorities just yesterday , which is fuelling global hyperinflationary conditions. And again, to paraphrase OPEC in terms of what we can expect for oil prices, ‘it's out of control'. Or, in other words ‘the sky is the limit', where irreparable damage is currently being done to long-term global growth prospects due to disparities between Western economies and emerging markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Peak Oil $100 to Deflate Global Stock Markets Speculative Bubble / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
For the vast majority of Americans who usually don't follow trends in the crude oil futures market, the Global “Oil Shock” only caught their attention after gasoline prices suddenly jumped 15% at the pump this month. Last week, West Texas Sweet crude oil surged to an all-time high of $98.62 /barrel, and greased the skids under the Dow Jones Industrials for a 4% plunge to the 13,000 level, zapping the value of investors' 401k accounts.Guy Caruso, the head of the US Energy Information Administration, told reporters on Nov 12th, that the average price US consumers pay for gasoline should rise by another 20-cents a gallon over the next two to three weeks, at the pump. “We haven't seen the full pass-through of high oil prices yet,” he warned.
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Tuesday, November 13, 2007
US Stock Markets Skating on Thin Ice! Four Steps to Protect your Portfolio / Portfolio / Global Stock Markets
I'm starting to see a lot of "thin ice" signs here in my home state of Montana. That's because the temperature is dropping, but it's not yet cold enough for thick ice to form on our bodies of water.
I'm seeing a lot of warning signs popping up in the financial markets, too. Oil is flirting with $100 a barrel. The credit crunch is deepening. Corporate earnings are disappointing. The U.S. dollar is making new all-time lows.
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Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Stock Market Mania and the Trade of a Life Time / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Susan C. Walker of Elliott Wave International writes: When you're caught in the middle of a bad storm, you don't really care whether it's a tropical depression or a full-strength hurricane. You just know you're hanging on for dear life. The same idea applies to financial markets. When a market is trending up strongly, it's hard to tell whether it's just a bull market or a more dangerous financial mania.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 12, 2007
Stock Market ABC Correction Completing - Bull Market End of Year Rally to Begin This Week ? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The S&P Closed on Friday at 1453, hitting more or less the target for the ABC correction low which coincided with the bull markets major support trend line, which now technically implies that that should be it for this sell off and for the bull market to re-exert itself.
How can I be bullish in the face of all the bearish news ?
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Sunday, November 04, 2007
Major Stock Market Uptrends to Resume - China Shanghai Index Primed For a Crash / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
My last analysis of the US Stock market of 7th October 2007 suggested a corrective downtrend of the uptrend from the August lows was about to begin and to last to around the 22nd of October, which was to be followed by a resumption of the uptrend towards new highs this year. However last weeks price action has changed the price pattern to imply a possible ABC correction into a lower low during November, which this analysis now evaluates the probability of.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
20th Anniversary of 87 Stock Market Crash - Are we revisiting the past? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Last week the 20 year anniversary of the 1987 crash passed with a significantly negative close for all major stock markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 22, 2007
Global Stock Markets Heading Sharply Lower - Fingers of Instability - Part 10 / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
In This Issue – 2 Fingers of Instability
- Implosions Lower and Explosions Higher!
- Deadbeats
Introduction
We began the latest series of “Fingers of Instability” in August as the fingerprints of what's unfolding became apparent. At that time we started to detail the fingerprints of the unfolding debacle known as “over the counter” derivatives known as CDO's, CMO's, MBS's, (Collateralized debt and mortgage obligations converted into securities) and all sorts of alphabet soup investments which are opaque, complex, and illiquid.
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Asian Stock Markets Expected to Trend Lower Into November / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
I am taking a break from the regular look at the US and UK Stock Markets by evaluating the immediate term outlook for the major asian markets. All of the asian markets have rebounded from the August lows, some more strongly than others. The anticipated October seasonal weakness across the global stock markets continues. The seasonal weakness looks set to impact the asian markets into early November with clear signs of sell signals on many markets. Fridays plunge on Wall Street is also expected to nudge those waiting for a sell trigger into the red zone on Monday.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Stock Markets Give Ground to the Bears / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Last week the bulls finally gave some ground to the bears with the US markets hitting reverse gear on Thursday after making new record highs on the day. There was no obvious reason for the reversal other than the general feeling that things were getting a little ˜frothy'.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 12, 2007
Buy Stocks on Weakness / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The bull continues to charge ahead. I still expect some kind of correction at some point this month because it would be uncharacteristic for the markets to continue going up with no interruptions.
The main risk remains the shaky situation in the credit world. Consequently, the slowdown of the US economy could turn into a recession that would be very bad for the global economy. At this time, the probability for a recession by the end of the year or the first quarter of 2008 is around 50 percent.
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Monday, October 08, 2007
Global Economy Surging; U.S. Still Sagging Due to Continuing Housing Bust and Dollar Crash / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Elisabeth and I just got back from a quick trip to Japan. Our main reason for going was to visit Anthony, who got his B.A. in Japanese language a few years ago and has been working in Tokyo since May.
But I also wanted to do a quick reality check on everything we've been telling you regarding the Japanese yen.
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Sunday, October 07, 2007
Stocks Bull Market - Bad News is Good News as Markets Continue to Price in Interest Rate Cuts / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Since the Fed interest rate cut in September, the stock markets across much of the world took the cue to let rip with strong bullish rallies. The trigger for the rally is a switch in market perceptions from interest rate rises to interest rate cuts. The market is therefore pricing in more interest rate cuts AND lower inflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Stocks Bull Market With a Recession? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
In this issue:
Inflation is Not a Problem - Until It Is
The House of Pain
A Bull Market and a Recession?
The Return of Muddle Through
King Dollar and the Guillotine, Part Two
Birthdays and the Ground Rush Effect
The dollar reaches new lows. The housing market shows no sign of a bottom. Oil almost touches $84 before backing off. Interest rates go up after the Fed cuts. So naturally the stock market keeps climbing. But then, consumer spending came in strong, employment looks like it may be ok, inflation (at least by one measure) came in below 2%. This week we look at the question of whether you could have a continued bull market and a recession. (Maybe.) We look at the bigger picture for the dollar and interest rates and examine the ugly data from the housing sector. Inflation or deflation?
Saturday, September 01, 2007
Global Financial Markets Analysis - Technically Precious with Merv / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
It's been a quiet week in the precious metals. The action has been basically lateral with some upward bias. Friday was good but probably with little volume. So, this week I thought I'd go into something different and just take a quick review of the some markets around the globe.
GOLD
Let's just take a quick look at gold and get it out of the way.
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Wednesday, August 29, 2007
More Stock Market Downside Pressure Coming - Leading Market Indicators: Part 2 / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Last week, I reviewed three leading indicators of the S&P 500 and found only the Broker/Dealer sector was slowing turning positive. The other two leading indicators were both still declining. This week, three more key indicators will be examined for evidence of possible renewed strength and reversals.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 21, 2007
More Stock Markets Selling Pressure Ahead Next Week / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
With just an hour remaining in the session on Friday, I told subscribers to our Web site I was doubtful about the correction having ended, as I noticed the following:
Financial powerhouse Goldman Sachs (GS) remained down about 2.5% for the session, and more importantly, below its 200 DMA (208.31)...
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
Equity Markets Ignore Rising Oil Prices / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Oil has been making an impressive move this past month. As seen through the chart of its ETF the U.S. Oil Trust (USO), oil is pushing against very important intermediate-term resistance plateaus. This starts at 53.50 in the USO and extends up to 55.20. If hurdled, it will unleash a $4 to $7 optimal advance and possibly a $10 upmove to complete the powerful 10-month base pattern.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Stock and Bond Bull Markets - The Beginning of the End? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The bull market appears to have peaked and a major correction in global bonds and equities is looking more likely, say panelistsPARTICIPANTS
Moderator: Anthony Rowley, Tokyo correspondent for the Business Times
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Monday, June 25, 2007
Nolte Notes - Stock Markets Bumping Along / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
In keeping with the recent activity of the markets, the major averages took it on the chin this week, for reasons that remain somewhat of a mystery. Oil prices rose back toward the $70/bbl mark, however the pump prices have continued to decline every so slightly. Bond prices moderated from their rapid decline of the past few weeks. The economic reports continue to show an economy that is “bumping along” without the major potholes that many feared. However the rumblings over a housing market still not in recovery mode and the liquidation of Bear Stearns hedge fund (funded by a bunch of sub-prime loans) was enough to make the markets jittery and push them lower for the week.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 22, 2007
Interest Rates Move Stocks / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Investors seeking to beat the market should be aware of the trends in interest rates. In the last couple of weeks we have seen longer term interest rates with the 10 year U.S. Treasury Note breaking through the 5% level. In response to the most recent rise in interest rates, stock price volatility increased causing investors to become more cautious about the stocks in their portfolios. The question is does this increase in interest rates signal a decline in the stock markets and in the price of stocks? Before answering that question, consider some background on interest rates. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 22, 2007
US Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Bubble Rolling Over! Foreign Financials Flying! / Housing-Market / Global Stock Markets
Mike Larson writes : Just a couple weeks ago, I told you that the bond market had suffered a critical break. Now, we're seeing Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) roll over, too.
The benchmark exchange-traded fund for this sector, the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund (IYR) , just broke through critical technical support. In other words, investors are voting with their feet and saying the bubble in commercial real estate is finito.
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Thursday, June 07, 2007
Significant GLOBAL Stock Market Action Signals Explosive Bull Markets Ahead! / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
For greater insight into our publication, have a look at the Overview of Tedbits . It helps current and potential subscribers understand our mission in serving you. It also gives a broad description of what's unfolding globally and what you can expect from Tedbits as a regular reader.
In This Issue
CRACK UP BOOM series intro
Significant "GLOBAL" stock market action signals explosive bull markets ahead!
This week we are beginning a "new series" of commentaries and mental exercises centered on the concepts of a "Crack-up Boom" by Ludvig Von Mises. As you all know who read me regularly, I will be using history as a yardstick to the future. There are fascinating thoughts which explain many of the things we see unfolding in many, many markets (art, stocks, real estate, etc) worldwide.
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Tuesday, June 05, 2007
Asian Stock Markets Hot or Frenzy? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The data from the companies which analyze where investors are putting their money tells us there is a lot of money flowing into international funds and especially Asia. This week's Outside the Box we look at a short but thoughtful piece by my good friend and partner Jon Sundt of Altegris Investments. Jon is personally bullish on Asia, but he offers us a graph and some thoughts of which you should be aware before you start putting money into the high flying Asian funds.I will add a few comments at the end, but let's jump right into Jon's piece.
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Monday, May 28, 2007
CHINA CRASH - Domino Effect on Stock Markets, and Collateral Effect on Resource Stocks... / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
One of the great fears plaguing resource stock investors is what will happen if the broad market suddenly goes into the tank. This fear is quite justified as resource stocks, in particular gold and silver stocks, have generally performed poorly in comparison with the general stock market over the past year, and every time the broad market shows signs of weakness, they have dropped sharply, a good example being last Thursday.
In this article we are going to take a look at the great Chinese equity bubble, and how the bursting of this bubble will probably affect US stock markets and thus resource stocks.
Friday, May 25, 2007
Is Global Stock Market Exuberance Rational / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
As stocks markets around the world rise to record highs, even former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan could not refrain from raising concerns about surging Chinese stocks. Lest we forget, Greenspan is on record for declaring the impossibility of spotting a bubble before it bursts. But in the few times that he has violated his own credo, his vision has proven invariably faulty.
Not only did he warn of irrational exuberance in the U.S. just before a five-fold increase in the NASDAQ, but he became one of the markets biggest boosters once the market peaked. Based on his track record, I interpret his statements as a screaming buy signal for Chinese stocks.
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Monday, May 21, 2007
The NEXT foreign stock market to blast off ... / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Martin Weiss writes: My global team and I aren't in a race to pick the world's leading stock market.
But right now, the star performer happens to be my personal favorite: Brazil. (And soon, the spotlight could shift to another market I'll tell you about in just a moment.)
Back in January, I told you Brazil was primed to be another "China-like miracle ." I explained why Brazil is one of the greatest beneficiaries of the China boom .
And I told you how Brazil's ethanol explosion would help propel the country even further.
Plus, two weeks ago, I gave you a heads up that Brazil would soon be upgraded by a major U.S. rating agency.
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Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Nolte Notes - Another Stock Market Correction? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The equity market has, over the decades, been called many things – among them manic-depressive. If you're unsure of a good working definition, just check out the activity at the end of the week. On Thursday the trade deficit and retail sales figures were released that indicated we imported much more than exported, which will cause a severe revision lower to our economic growth estimates in the first quarter.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 13, 2007
Stock Market Demand Power and Supply Pressure Buy and Sell Entry and Exit Signals - Australia / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
We've been measuring and reporting Demand Power and Supply Pressure for the Australia SPASX200 index for the past year. This week we present them graphically, but highlight for the first time the SPASX200 Demand Power/Supply Pressure buy and sell, entry and exit signal system , shown on the chart below. Aside from the astonishing correlation, the most exciting aspect about this system is the guidance it provides on exiting an established position.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 11, 2007
Some of My Favorite ETFs at New Record Highs / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Dan Ascani here with a special guest article on ETFs.
I'm the ETF portfolio manager at Weiss Capital Management, an SEC Registered Investment Adviser, and a separate affiliate of Weiss Research.
And I just came out of Weiss Capital Management's Investment Committee meeting, where we discussed the portfolio strategies for our individually managed accounts. So the timing is right to give you a quick run-down of what we see ahead for global markets.
Here are our views:
First, this stock-market rally has been impressive.
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Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Worldwide Stock Market Crash - Time to Get Liquid? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The story today is a world financial bubble. Aside from a possible attack on Iran – The story right now is a world financial bubble. This article will discuss it in very broad terms. The thesis is that maybe you should right now be thinking about getting liquid – gradually. I consider our time right now, May 07, to be a time just like before the world stock crash of ‘29.
Imagine what people would have thought, if, after the stock market crashed in successive waves over a period of a year into 1930 – what they would have though it they could have gotten out of those markets in say, Feb 29…..and not ridden stocks down 50% .. and later 90%, in the several years following the '29 crash.
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Tuesday, May 08, 2007
Global Mergers and Acquisitions : Fill in the blanks / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
"...The previous top of 1999-2000 feels more like false memory syndrome than a warning from history..."
GOT TIME for a quick round of Blankety Blank , the classic British gameshow from the '80s?
If you were lucky enough to miss it, just think of America 's Match Game – only with the value of prizes capped by government diktat. (Yes, really...) Then simply write down the word that best completes these well-worn phrases below.
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Friday, May 04, 2007
Looking Abroad for Investment Bargins / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
It's a six-year bear market and counting for the US dollar versus the world's other major currencies. And with the exception of some select sectors such as utilities and real estate investment trusts, US stocks have lagged most of the world's equity markets as well. That's despite a big recovery by the S&P 500 blue chip index in the past couple of years.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 01, 2007
Stock Market Crashes Lead to Serious Recessions / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
I normally don't read many other gold authors, tending to do my own research and publish my newsletter. There are one or two guys I respect who I do read to double check myself – to make sure that I'm not going off on a tangent. This is one reason I have been often quite different from the gold mainstream in my views. I don't get overly caught up in the commodity hype – something that I am going to address later in this piece.
I want to present a picture that has formed in my mind about the probability of a stock driven crash into a severe world economic recession. This scenario seems to be totally out of mind of many gold writers.
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Thursday, April 26, 2007
Stock Markets Leading Indicators : Part1 / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
After over four years of near uninterrupted advancing, the stock markets have now pushed through into all-time highs. The question for most investors is centred on the probability of the continuation of this current trend. Recent fundamental data points to the risk of a cooling economy in the second half of 2007 accompanied with lower interest rates.
Concern for the U.S. housing market and its potential impact also looms over the gradually expanding North American economies. Yet in spite of these challenges, equity markets trade higher month after month. This report is the first in a two part series reviewing the key leading indicators of the stock markets and their implications.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2007
The Corrective Rally is over as the Stock Markets tumble on more Subprime bad news / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
More subprime bad news hit the Dow as it closed down 242 points at 12,075, dragging the FTSE lower to 6161, which had earlier in the day rallied strongly to 6276. The sell off had started in Asia with many indices down between .5% and 1%.
The continuing, and one could say expected bad news from the US Housing market was from the US Mortgage Bankers' Association survey which showed that 0.54% of all loans began the foreclosure process in Q4 of 2006, the highest in the organisation's 37 year history of recording such statistics. This news again raised the strong possibility of the US going into recession later this year.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2007
In depth Market Wrap - US Economy, Stocks, Bonds and Currencies - China Crisis / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The Economy - The Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product last quarter rose at a 2.2% annual rate. New home sales plunged, while orders for durable goods slid the most since October.
Personal Income was up 1.0%, while personal spending was up 0.5%. If the figures are correct, such is a good thing, as less was consumed then produced and earned, which allows for savings.
The ISM Manufacturing index was up 3 points to 52.3. Prices paid were up 6 points to 59. Production and new orders both increased by almost 5 points.
Confidence among U.S. consumers fell last month from a two-year high as fuel prices ate into personal income, and employment weakened.
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Thursday, January 25, 2007
Global stock markets and gold going crazy / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Next month I plan on heading to Asia for meetings and some rest & relaxation. So this week I started preparing for my trip. And I checked to see how Vietnam, one of the last countries I visited in Asia, is doing. I practically fell off my chair! When I last talked about Vietnam in Money & Markets , I called it “the next miracle economy.” I said the economy and political system were opening up ... that the country's GDP was roaring ahead at 8% a year ... that 83 million citizens wanted new lifestyles ... and that China's growth was helping Vietnam move into the 21st century.
I also pointed out that Vietnam has rich natural resources, including 600 million barrels of proven oil reserves, 6.8 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves, and 20 billion tons of coal.
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