Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Slovakia Rejects EFSF, Financial Markets Yawn / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Overnight the Slovak government voted against expanding the EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund). All Eurozone countries must ratify the changes before they can come to pass, so technically the vote failure could derail the bailout plans. In reality, there appears to have been some political horse play involved in this vote, with a second vote likely to pass as early as Thursday.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2011
$600 Trillion Derivatives Time Bomb That's Set to Explode / Stock-Markets / Derivatives
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Do you want to know the real reason banks aren't lending and the PIIGS have control of the barnyard in Europe?
It's because risk in the $600 trillion derivatives market isn't evening out. To the contrary, it's growing increasingly concentrated among a select few banks, especially here in the United States.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2011
What Next for the Stock Market and Gold? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
A lot of eyes were watching the Slovakian Parliament around the closing bell today as they voted on the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). The first vote failed to pass the pending legislation, but members of the opposition party have indicated that they will vote for the bill in a second scheduled vote.
The S&P 500 E-Mini futures contract has not sold off sharply on the news, but the trap door risk for equity traders is that the second vote comes up short and the legislation fails unexpectedly. The marketplace is expecting the second vote to pass without issue and if a different scenario plays out selling pressure could become extreme potentially. With earnings season now upon us, there is plenty of headline risk to go around and this Slovakian situation just adds more complexity to the news flow.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Stock Market Wait For A Pullback Before Making New Buys / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The S&P 500 is up 10% in 6 days!
Until we get some sort of pullback there is nothing to do on the longside, that is unless you like chasing buses at these levels. We don’t and we won’t. But if we get some sort of ABC pullback? A Pullback Off Highs (POH)?, then a launch? Sure then we can SELECTIVELY step up to the plate.
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Markets Slip Back After Monday Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Last night, US markets closed strongly with the S&P 500 up 3.41% and the Dow Jones up 2.97%. This morning the S&P 500 futures have slipped back, but not by much, down 0.10% this morning.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2011
SPXU Right But too Early / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Several weeks ago I called for a buy of SPXU. The Pro Shares Ultra Pro Short S&P 500 (SPXU) seeks a triple leverage or 300% return on the inverse performance of the S&P 500. Conversely, Pro Shares Ultra Pro S&P 500 (UPRO) is a triple leveraged fund that seeks a 300% return on the performance of the S&P for a single day. If you believe as I do that we are setting up for a leg down on the S&P then SPXU is the best way to profit from this trade.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Europe Pulls A Bernanke..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
If you can't beat them, join them, is what we've heard throughout the years. Europe is in a very dire situation with regards to defaults and their banks. Sarkozy from France and Merkel from Germany got together over the weekend and flooded the system with cash. Sound familiar? It should. It doesn't work, but it offers up hope for some reason. This hope got the futures moving higher overnight in Europe, and that happy feeling came into our neck of the woods. Up we went at the open and up we stayed all day. Nothing rousing after the open, but nice action as the major indexes all closed above the opening prints.
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Monday, October 10, 2011
No Damage (Yet) to Downtrends in Gold, Oil, Euro/USD / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Apart from Sunday's announcement from leaders Merkel and Sarkozy that both agree that European banks must be recapitalized (the details of which will have to wait until Nov 2), let's notice that today's almost euphoric reaction has propelled the Euro/USD as well as gold and silver only towards a test of their prior recovery highs.
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Monday, October 10, 2011
Can Stock Markets Find the Road Back to Positive Territory? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
As we began last quarter, we asked: “Is the market set to take off?” In a world full of uncertainty during the third quarter, global investors gave a definitive answer: No.
U.S. stock markets suffered through the worst quarter since 2008, with the S&P 500 Index dropping nearly 14 percent for the quarter; more than half of this drop occurred in September alone. Only 54 companies in the S&P 500 saw positive returns during the month, while more than 200 dropped at least 20 percent, TheStreet.com reports.
Monday, October 10, 2011
Gold, Silver And The US Dollar Analysis and Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Last week, we wrote that gold and gold stocks could be at – or very close to – a bottom. So far so good, as the miners rallied out of oversold conditions.
Gold found support at the 35 weeks Exponential Moving Average, and RSI held above 50. That’s a good sign so far:
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Monday, October 10, 2011
European bank pledge lifts markets in early trading / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
The weekend's pledge from Germany's Merkel and France's Sarkozy has been taken as a sign that the Eurozone finally has the will and the unity to get to tackle the crisis. There is increasing belief in the optimistic view that Greek default will be contained by full support of European banks. This comes as French and Belgian authorities guarantee 90bn euros of Dexia debt.
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Monday, October 10, 2011
Start Of A Secondary Reaction In A Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline (which appears to have already started) into 2014.
SPX: Intermediate trend - An intermediate uptrend has begun.
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Sunday, October 09, 2011
How Long Before The Eurozone Debt Crisis Catastrophic Avalanche Occurs? / Stock-Markets / Global Debt Crisis
1. Time left is limited now, as a number of well placed sources envisage weeks � not months � before the Eurozone crisis deteriorates into a catastrophic avalanche;
2. October 8th is the date the Greeks were expecting to receive 8bn Euros from the IMF-EU-ECB troika to enable payments of wages to public sector workers by mid-October and to maintain public services. This payment has been postponed as the conditions for the bailout and the total sum involved are being recalculated by the troika;
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Sunday, October 09, 2011
Stock and Commodity Markets Bullish Set-Up vs. Europe, Downtrend / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
For the past eight weeks, this market has been difficult for bulls and bears alike. I do not recall a more difficult two month stretch in terms of volatility and the magnitude of the ups and downs. Here are the peak-to-trough losses for a few ETFs since the spring 2011 highs:
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Sunday, October 09, 2011
Market Short Squeezes and Trading Ranges, Risk On? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Wow!, every time I see one of those short squeezes they still blow me away at the speed and aggression they show, it clearly shows how many are selling this market, as without doubt that was another aggressive short squeeze you saw this past week.
Last week I left you with this chart, and the FX markets were suggesting that we were on the verge of a reversal.
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Sunday, October 09, 2011
Stock Market Breaking Down The Bullish Argument / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Equity bulls have found solace in the abnormally high bearish sentiment readings. Seems everyone wants to be considered a contrarian. Rather than follow the herd these free thinkers venture out into the cold dark tundra alone and unafraid. They proclaim to the world "huge bearish sentiment to propel the stock market rally."
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Saturday, October 08, 2011
Stocks Bear Market Deja Vu? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Another wild week on Wall Street. For the past two weeks the market had made the high for the week on tuesday, and then sold off for the rest of the week. This week, however, the market made a new bear market low on tuesday, and then rallied for the rest of the week. Markets, worldwide, were generally higher with the DJ World index gaining 1.7%. In the US the SPX/DOW were +1.9%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.9%. Economic reports for the week continued their downward trend with negatives outpacing positives 6 to 4. On the positive side: ISM manufacturing, construction spending, auto sales and non-farm payrolls. On the negative side: factory orders, ISM services, consumer credit, the monetary base, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims rose. The ADP index and the unemployment rate both came in unchanged. Next week the FOMC minutes, the twin deficits. and Retail sales highlight the economic agenda.
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Saturday, October 08, 2011
Is the Stock Market About to Stage A Multi-Month Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The S&P 500 must have taken notice of the multitude of headlines coming at market participants and proceeded on a path of pure chaos. Since October 4th, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) managed to trade in a range that spanned from 1,074 to as high as 1,171 in 4 days. To put the past 4 days price action into perspective, the S&P 500 Index rallied 97 points or 9% in less than 96 hours.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 08, 2011
Too Many Uncertainties Remain In Place! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Consumers, businesses, and stock markets hate uncertainty, and they sure have been subjected to more of it than they can handle so far this year. As a result, consumer and business confidence is at very low readings, and stock markets around the world are in serious corrections, many down more than the 20% that marks their entry into bear markets.
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Saturday, October 08, 2011
Investor Gainful Navigation Aids / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
"Governments all over the world have created trillions of currency units since 2007 in the mistaken idea that it would create prosperity. The Americans, but also the Europeans, the Chinese and others, have papered things over for the short run mainly by inflating the stock markets, artificially depressing interest rates, and slowing the fall of the real estate market. All that extra currency has made people think they are richer than they are, and has encouraged extra consumption, which is a large part of the problem. Now they [central bankers] are out of bullets. We are coming out of the eye of the hurricane and it is going to be much more serious than it was in 2007, 2008, and 2009. That is because all those currency units they created are causing tremendous price rises on the retail level. It is going to be devastating for the average guy. A complete breakdown in confidence is happening right now in the US dollar. The Chinese, or at least their central bank, have more US dollars than anybody else, and they want to get rid of them. They are trying to offload those dollars, for instance in Africa, to get rid of them for real wealth. Nearly everybody in the world feels this way. The new deals that they cut, with the Iranians and the Argentines for instance, are almost like barter deals. Nobody wants to use the paper currency of an unreliable third party.
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