Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, August 24, 2007
Business Cycle Points to Stage 6 Stocks and Commodities Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Business Cycles
By: Damian_Campbell
The Normal Business Cycle
As refined by Martin Pring in his book The All-Season Investor , economic and stock
cycles can be broken down into stages. The complete normal business cycle usually
lasts approximately 42 - 54 months, but this typical length can be altered by monetary
policy. Business activity goes from the despair of the depths of recession to the
euphoria of the peaks of business expansion and back again.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Stock Market Gyrations and the “Yen Carry” Trade / Stock-Markets / Yen Carry Trade
By: Gary_Dorsch
For long-term buy and hold investors in the US stock market, who simply sit through wild market gyrations, it's good to know that you have “Plunge Protection Insurance.” The dynamic duo of US Treasury chief Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve chief Ben “B-52” Bernanke are working overtime these days, and using all the weapons in their arsenal to prevent a bear market from materializing, while Wall Street faces its worst financial crisis in many decades. “I asked Chairman Bernanke if he would use all the tools available to him and he said, Absolutely,” said US Senator Christopher Dodd on Aug 21st, after a meeting with Paulson and Bernanke, the top commanders of the “Plunge Protection Team” (PPT). “Historically the federal funds rate has tended to follow movements in the discount rate,” Dodd added, alluding to the PPT's most potent weapon.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Will Credit Crunch Crisis Calm Down Before The Real Stock Market Crash ? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Christopher_Laird
After basically being up on and off 24/7 for two weeks – I am amazed at the speed of the onset of the credit crisis. I also had a feeling last night, thinking about all this chaos, that it is rather bizarre. Weird and eerie is another view. There is no doubt that we have seen real fear like never since 1929 in credit markets. That almost spread to equities, with some scary drops – like 600 and 800 point down days in the Hang Seng and the Nikkei. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Pullback in the Nasdaq (Q's) / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Let's notice that after marginally breaking above key resistance at 47.80-48, the Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) pivoted to the downside this morning (prior to testing the 62% recovery level at 48.25/30), and since have declined to test the minor support line at 47.20 created during the past week's action. Judging from both the micro pattern carved-out off of the 48.04 high and the juxtaposition of the hourly RSI momentum gauge, the Q's likely will break 47.20 on the way to 47.00-46.80 in the upcoming hours, at which time we will have to re-evaluate the composite technical picture to determine if a minor pullback is complete, or if additional correction is necessary.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Investment Flash: Bull Market in Cash / Stock-Markets / US Bonds
By: Paul_Lamont
It looks as if the Summer of 1929 , has finally past. We are now experiencing " forced selling and unwinding of leverage on assets " that we stated would follow.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Dow Theory Stock Market Sell Signal - Into The Breach / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Captain_Hook
The stock market triggered a Dow Theory sell signal Friday, with both the Dow and Transports closing below June lows, and new lows for the move. Now we have confirmation from a very reliable indicator the stock market is in real trouble to go along with our own observations last week. In relation to this, speculators continued to take put / call ratios down on Thursday, which was part of the reason stocks fell Friday. Just how big a factor put / call ratios are right now is uncertain however, because premiums for puts close to the money doubled Friday, showing extreme pessimism readings not seen by this observer in quite some time. What's more, put positions that matter (on the S&P 500) still outnumber calls almost 2 to 1 (when the SPY and SPX series are added together), so in spite of a possible route in the first few days of this week, I am still hoping for a rally back above 1500 at some point believe it or not. But if put / call ratios keep falling like they have been, with the SPX series down to 1.76 as of last Thursday, I'm not likely to get my wish.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Fear in the Streets – A Dress Rehearsal / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Dudley_Baker
As we write this article it appears that fear is abating and that the financial markets are getting back to business as usual. Nevertheless, one major piece of bad news could send the markets tumbling once again. So, have we just witnessed the worst of the market decline s or was this just a dress rehearsal for a much more severe and perhaps catastrophic decline ahead ? None of us ha s a crystal ball going forward from here, but we as investors continue to seek opportunities always aware of the potential short term downside risk.
So, we ask the question; what have we learned from the action of the markets as the volatility occurred?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Can the Nasdaq (Q's) Penetrate Resistance? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
This morning's strength in the Q's (Nasdaq: QQQQ) propelled the price structure into a major resistance band between 47 and 47.90, as well as towards a confrontation with the July-August down trendline, now at 47.95, which I think will prove to be impenetrable in the absence either of a surprise cut in the Fed funds rate OR a pullback into the 46.50 area first. It is with that in mind that I hold a 50% short position in the Q's in our model portfolio against my other long positions as a "speculative" hedge (how's that for an oxymoronic phrase?) in the upcoming hours.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Financial Markets Discussion and Update of the HUI Gold Bugs Index / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: David_Petch
The sub prime debt market is huge and the pile or associated derivatives is larger (some 450 trillion), mostly in US Dollar. If cash injection is required to stabilize things, it is likely that the US Dollar(as per the charts) remains buoyant until mid to late 2009 before finally collapsing below 80 in one fowl swoop (pun intended, the USD is a dead duck, just a matter of time). The USD still is the reserve currency of the world and once the USD prints an equivalent amount of paper to reduce the global holdings of banks to 30-40% of the total paper, then it will be dumped.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Forget Peak Oil, Peak Net Worth is the Real Danger! / Stock-Markets / Deflation
By: Brady_Willett
Is the proverbial 'Peak' in Consumer Borrowing upon us?
With the 1990s stock market mania about to go bust, it was easy to conclude that the U.S. economy would see an entrenched recession. After all, the bubble was arguably larger than any before, and - thanks to easy investing via the internet and the proliferation of 401Ks, mutual funds, etc. - the fallout in stock prices was going to impact an unprecedented proportion of the population directly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Stock Market Warning - Time is Short - Credit Crunch Crisis Does Not Abate / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Christopher_Laird
I put out an alert to subscribers as to the following. Included are some additional comments.
After the Fed cut the discount rate Friday, and after the initial exuberance Friday and Monday in Asian and EU markets, the dust settles a bit. Then people look if they can see anything through the fog.
I am not surprised the US markets are flat, and certainly, this is not a confirmation of returning confidence, particularly after the Asian markets rallied 2 - 3% Monday (Sunday night here). They are rallying again Tuesday 2%. This is not convincing to me.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Semiconductor Chip Stocks Quiet, but Looking Higher / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The SMH (Semiconductor ETF) is acting a bit sluggish so far today, but, that not withstanding, the near-term pattern continues to point higher, and the price structure should accelerate once near-term resistance is hurdled between 37.15 and 37.25. My next optimal target is 38. Only a break of 36.80 will begin to compromise the timing of the expected upside breakout.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Fingers of Financial Markets Instability Continues - Part Two / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Ty_Andros
In This Issue – 3 Fingers
1. Water, Water Everywhere, But Not a Drop To Drink!
2. Keys to the House
3. Redemption Day
1. Water, Water Everywhere, But Not a Drop To Drink!
Do not think that because the credit markets are seizing up that there is no money in the financial system, there is. Bank and Corporate balance sheets are strong. Money market funds are in excess of 2.6 trillion dollars. There is plenty money looking for places to find short term yield, they just want to know they will “get it back”. The money can't move as the ability to trust the collateral of the counterparties is in question. The Federal Reserve began to blink Friday morning by lowering the discount rate 50 basis points from 6.25% to 5.75%. It was a clever move and shows that the Federal Reserve under Bernanke is a wily group that is going to fully try and tackle the problems inherent in the Greenspan put. It's going to be Good cop versus bad cop in the open market committee, as Bill Poole scares the devil out of us and the rest of them make sure the baby IS NOT thrown out with the bathwater.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Major Change for China's Individual Stock Market Investors / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: The not-so-invisible hand of government intervention has been very active lately. For example, the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank flooded the system with tens of billions of dollars, and announced a surprise, mid-meeting cut of its discount window rate by half a percentage point.
There is a lot of debate over whether those moves will solve the credit crunch and save the sagging stock and real estate markets. And the uncertainty is what's causing U.S. markets to go haywire. Yesterday was another day of wild swings, in both U.S. stocks and bonds.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Further Stock Market Weakness Expected - Leading Market Indicators: Part 1 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Donald_W_Dony
This report is the first of a two-part series reviewing several key leading indicators on the equity markets. With recent volatility due to the subprime mortgage exposure and drops of 10% or more to major indexes, the timing and direction of the markets is vital now for many investors.
The Dow Jones Utilities Average has a 40 year history of leading the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Utilities as a sector, are the most sensitive to interest rate movements and are normally the first group of stocks to reverse their trend ahead of the DJIA.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
US Financial Markets Rocked — What Is Really Happening / Stock-Markets / Money Supply
By: Gerard_Jackson
Last week I alerted readers to the possibility of a cut in the Fed funds rate. As sure as God made little apples, a cut is exactly what we got — except that it was the discount rate that was cut. For those of you who gave a sigh of relief at the Fed's “timely intervention”: take a deep breath because at some time in the future we will get a rerun of this financial fiasco and the Fed won't be able to stop it without igniting a severe inflation. Assuming for a moment that the Fed took this risk, the result in all likelihood would be a run on the dollar followed by an immediate increase in the funds rate on the heels of which would emerge an unavoidable recession.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Bullish on US Treasuries and Financial Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Purely from a technical pattern, the XLF Financial Select SPDR, a sector that everybody is watching, appears to have completed a pullback in the aftermath of last week's powerful advance from 31.50 to 36.50.
Today's low at 33.58, followed by the upside pivot and rally to 34.15/30 has the right look of the start of a near-term advance that should revisit 35.50 at a minimum and more than likely 36.50 in the upcoming hours.
Monday, August 20, 2007
Glossary of Credit Crunch Gloom / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Paul_Petillo
In the last several weeks, the questions about Wall Street and the stock markets have become much more declarative. No longer are they phrased as if those who ask want answers yet, when spoken, the statements often implore the listener to offer something, some comfort, sympathy, empathy, anything.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 20, 2007
NOLTE NOTES - Stock Market to Revisit Lows during September / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Good time to take a vacation and clear the mind and body of all things Wall Street. However, upon return the markets are acting as though the financial world is ending. While we have been concerned about the markets for much of this year (our beginning year prediction was for a flat return at best), the near seizing up of portions of the credit markets was alleviated by the Fed cutting the discount rate by a half of one percent on Friday before the market open. The Fed has been involved in providing liquidity to the markets over the past few weeks, however the cut was a more formal statement that they stand at the ready to provide the “grease” to keep the economic wheels moving.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 20, 2007
Nasdaq (Qs) Poised to Continue Larger Recovery Upleg / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Although the major equity market ETFs feel like they are moving around quite a bit, actually in relation to the intense volatility during the prior two weeks, this is a pretty calm day! The pattern the Q's (Nasdaq: QQQQ) have carved out since Friday's spike high at 46.99 appears to me to be taking the form of a coil (lower highs and higher lows). As long as 45.59 contains any forthcoming weakness, the integrity of the lower side of the coil will remain intact. Conversely, I think that today's high at 46.64 is a second data point near the top side of the coil.Read full article... Read full article...