Time for a look at the Semiconductor HOLDRs ETF (AMEX: SMH), which looks to me like it is heading for an upside breakout that will be precipitated by strength in Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Applied Materials (Nasdaq: AMAT), Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI)...in the upcoming hours/days...

The SMH appears to have finished a near-term pullback off of last Friday's rally peak at 38.80, and should revisit the 38.80 area very soon, which if hurdled and sustained will be my first clue that the base-like pattern formed since late July is starting to exert increasing upward pressure against key resistance between 38.80 and 39.10. The overall pattern argues for an upside breakout above 39.10 on the way to 40.00-40.50 thereafter.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon, who use the service for guidance on both specific trades as well as general market direction

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