Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Awaiting Signal for the Resumption of the Bearish Primary Stock Market Trend / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
By: Tim_Wood
Since the rally out of the January lows began, I have heard it said on numerous occasions that the strength of the Transports somehow has bullish undertones and implies that the decline is over. The overall spirit of the comments I have been hearing has to do with the fact that the Transports have recovered more than the Industrials. I have also heard that some are saying we now have a Dow theory non-confirmation in place. None of these comments or interpretations are correct in regard to traditional Dow theory. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 23, 2008
G7 Economies Turn Into Wealth Sucking Black Holes- Opportunities in Emerging Countries / Stock-Markets / Stagflation
By: Ty_Andros
Volatility continues to expand at a blistering pace, wonderful isn't it? Volatility is opportunity for the prepared investor . This week's missive will be a little shorter than most as I have had a very bad flu. A number of markets are tipping their hands signaling another round of re-pricing in many markets, further signaling abundant opportunities DEAD ahead. We will cover a few here today. Next week we will address why commodities are not in a bubble in a definitive way - don't miss it ! Global Decoupling is still proceeding; it is just navigating a rough patch. You can see its outline clearly. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 22, 2008
Credit Crunches Typically Have Proven to be Investment Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Steve_Selengut
Many investors are beginning to think that income investing is every bit as risky as equity investing, but nothing has really changed in the relationship between these two basic building blocks of corporate finance. What has changed in recent years is the nature of the derivative products created by the wizards of Wall Street to deliver both forms of securities to investors. The most popular form of equity delivery today is the three-levels-of-speculation Index Fund. New ETFs are birthed every day and, in total, have become as common as common stocks. Have you noticed that regulators always strive to prevent financial disasters from happening... again? Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 22, 2008
Credit Default Swaps, the Next Financial Armageddon? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Everyone knows that homeowners insurance is designed to insure against fires and floods but few are familiar with credit default swaps, arcane financial instruments invented by Wall Street about ten years ago. Credit default swaps (CDS) were designed as “insurance” to reimburse banks and bondholders when companies failed to pay their debts. Credit default swaps have become so popular among banks that the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which regulates banks, reports that they are the fastest growing derivatives product in the market, growing 19% from the second quarter to the third quarter last year to $14 trillion in value. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 21, 2008
The US Fed IS Responsible for the Credit Crunch! / Stock-Markets / Central Banks
By: Mike_Whitney
It's Time to Dump the Federal Reserve - The credit storm which began in July when two Bear Stearns hedge funds were forced to liquidate, has continued to intensify and roil the markets. Last week the noose tightened around auction-rate securities,a little-known part of the market that requires short-term funding to set rates for long-term municipal bonds. The $330 billion ARS market has dried up overnight pushing up rates as high as 20% on some bonds---a new benchmark for short term debt. Auction-rate securities are now headed for extinction just like the other previously-vital parts of the structured finance paradigm. The $2 trillion market for collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), the multi-trillion dollar mortgage-backed securities market (MBSs) and the $1.3 asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) market have all shut down draining a small ocean of capital from the financial system and pushing many of the banks and hedge funds closer to default. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 21, 2008
New Recovery Upleg for S&P Stock Market Index? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Although th e-Mini S&P 500 (e-SPH) has given up its early gains, my sense is that the upmove from yesterday's low to this morning's high is the first upmove in a new recovery upleg that is destined to hurdle key "triple top" resistance at 1369.25-1371.50, and which should trigger upside acceleration towards a retest of the Feb high at 1400.00. From an intraday perspective, let's keep an eye on 1351/00, which represents the 50% pullback support area of the rally from yesterday's low to today's high, and which should contain forthcoming weakness if my bullish near-term count is to remain viable.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Interest Rate Cut Cycles Correlate with Negative Stock Market Returns / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Michael_Pento
Don't Bet the Farm on Rate Cuts! - The black hole consisting of record consumer debt ($2.52 trillion), falling asset prices, elevated inflation and weakening job and income growth is pulling us inexorably towards recession. As a result, the cacophony for yet more rate cuts has now become deafening. These rate cuts are anticipated to cure all of our ills, from the credit crisis to the Ebola virus. But will the lower interest rates really solve the banking crisis and turn the equity markets around in short order? I thought it would be informative to look at the last two interest rate cycles and compare them to the performance of the equity market. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Narodny Rock Bank and the G7's Men of Action / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Individually or together...erm...in pretty difficult and uncertain times...erm..."
IN TIMES OF CRISIS , it's always good to know there are bright, committed people working non-stop to sort things out. Or so everyone seems to believe.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Financial Stocks Make Tradeable Low / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Judging by the improving technical condition of some of the members of the Financial Select Sector SPDR (AMEX: XLF), such as Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), AIG, GS, and MS, perhaps this morning's low at 26.20 will suffice as the third such low of a near-term triple bottom completion of the pullback off of the Feb 1 high at 30.00? If that proves to be accurate, then confirmation that a significant corrective low has been established will come only upon a hurdle of the key Feb down trendline resistance now at 27.00. Until then, I only have indications that a tradable low is in place.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Another Roller Coaster Week for the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Congress was busy last week – and fortunately not in our back pockets. Between the baseball steroid issues and interviewing/questioning both the Federal Reserve chairman and Treasury Secretary, you'd think they were really looking out for the country's best interest. Congress is in an uproar over whether Roger Clemens (or his wife) did or did not take steroids and who is lying or just mis-remembering. The collective brainpower that was brought to bear on this important national issue was something to behold. From there they interviewed the Fed Chair and Treasury Secretary – and evidently they believe the economy is a bit worse than originally thought, but by yearend should be back on track.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Stock Market Bears on the Defensive / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
I am not sure what to make of the whipsaw action in the ProShares UltraShort Inverted SPY ETF (AMEX: SDS) since Friday morning's surge that tested the Jan-Feb resistance line at 64.20. However, technically, that test failed! Now we find the price structure probing the vicinity of its opposite number: its Jan-Feb support line, now at 60.60, which must contain any forthcoming weakness to avert a potential downside acceleration (that represents a powerful advance in the major equity market ETFs). If the bears were in the drivers seat last Friday morning, they now find themselves on the defensive.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Stock Market Imminent Panic / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Captain_Hook
Finding Religion Is Not Necessarily An Uplifting ExperienceUninformed odds players are calling a bottom on the stock market citing extreme technical and sentiment related readings. It's too bad they are not history students as well, but that was the boring and unnecessary elective in school most declined to take seriously. These dip buyers are about to learn a very expensive lesson in my opinion, as in terms of market internals and sentiment, we are currently poised for a crash of potentially monumental proportions. Finding religion will have a new meaning for these guys afterwards as their futures become more uncertain, and their appreciation for gold should be raised a notch or two as well as a panic attack shakes some trees. This is when we expect the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) take out closing basis triple top resistance at 31 on its way to 45, and perhaps beyond.
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Monday, February 18, 2008
Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson - What They Needed to Say / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Andy_Sutton
This week, we saw in mild fashion what can happen when at least one part of society begins to have doubts about another's ability to do its job. We saw Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson on Capitol Hill this week offering testimony to Congress about the various messes we are involved in as a nation, including, but not limited to: the credit mess, the housing mess, the economic situation, the stimulus package and the list goes on. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 18, 2008
US Credit Markets Are Collapsing! - Last Chance to Defend Your Portfolio! / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: The U.S. credit markets, the giant growth engine that powers the American economy, are collapsing ... with few credit sectors spared from damage, few investors escaping losses, and little hope of federal action that's quick or strong enough to make a major difference.
Here's what's happening ...
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Monday, February 18, 2008
Stock Market Bulls on the Defensive and Gasping for Air / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Joseph_Russo
BULLS FUMBLE - First-Down - BEARS - The near 20% decline from peak to trough in the October 2007 - January 2008 period, marked a potentially devastating turnover for Bulls. After throwing a near interception back in August, Bulls held steady, recovered, then fumbled critically at the October ‘07 highs.
Bears handily took possession thereafter, and have scored an undeniable first-down with the lows hit in January. Despite the aid of statist intervention along with surety of more where that came from, the Bullish contingent finds itself in the very rare and awkward position of playing defense.
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Monday, February 18, 2008
Key to Interpreting the Stock Market - Technical Or Fundamental Analysis? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Clif_Droke
One of the best practitioners of technical analysis of the last 30-40 years, and one of my personal favorites, was Ralph Bloch. Bloch was for many years the chief market technician with Raymond James and was renown for his down-to-earth manner and “say it like it is” approach to the stock market.
Bloch was known for using only the most basic of all analytical tools when it came to T.A. and he relied mainly on the charts and the tape for his trading decisions. When it came to his technical approach to the market, he once described himself as “a ham-and-egger…I'm a Technical Analysis 101 guy all the way.”
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Sunday, February 17, 2008
Stock Market Update: Blemishes on the Bears' Elliott Wave Count / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Dominick
Another week is now history and the bear case is looking worse for it. Not that the market can't go down from here, but if it does, it won't be the impulsive 3 rd wave for which so many have been waiting and waiting and waiting.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Stock Market Scenarios for the Week Ahead / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Here is a look at the two scenarios for the SPY -- the S&P 500 ETF. My
preferred count calls for a climb towards 140 prior to the completion of the
countertrend rally phase off of the January 22 low (126.00). However,
weakness that breaks and sustains below 131.70 will be problematic and
likely will trigger a plunge to new lows.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Stock Markets to Retest January Lows in Coming Months / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The bottom indicators are suggesting there is little risk in the market.
Short Term - After a bottom has been made downside volume (DV) dries up pretty quickly. That has not happened yet, but it is encouraging to see DV falling off faster in the small cap indices than the large cap indices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Stock Market Crash Danger as Imminent Downgrades of Credit Insurers Threatens US Economy / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
Credit Insurers Must Keep AAA Rating or Else -This week, on Thursday, February 14th , Bernanke spoke, markets fell. Confidence in the Fed Chairman wanes. From a fundamental perspective, until something is done to bail out the credit insurers, so they maintain their AAA rating from Moodys and S&P, market rallies will be corrective. This is an economic nuclear bomb at 32,000 feet. This is about bank solvency, bank risk-based capital, the bank credit function, not about the insurers themselves. Should a downgrade come to the insurers, billions of municipal bonds will effectively become illiquid, joining the trillion of CDOs (mostly subprime loan securities) that have already become illiquid. Without a bailout here, we are headed for a depression. Period.Read full article... Read full article...
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