Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
The US Fed IS Responsible for the Credit Crunch! / Stock-Markets / Central Banks
By: Mike_Whitney
It's Time to Dump the Federal Reserve - The credit storm which began in July when two Bear Stearns hedge funds were forced to liquidate, has continued to intensify and roil the markets. Last week the noose tightened around auction-rate securities,a little-known part of the market that requires short-term funding to set rates for long-term municipal bonds. The $330 billion ARS market has dried up overnight pushing up rates as high as 20% on some bonds---a new benchmark for short term debt. Auction-rate securities are now headed for extinction just like the other previously-vital parts of the structured finance paradigm. The $2 trillion market for collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), the multi-trillion dollar mortgage-backed securities market (MBSs) and the $1.3 asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) market have all shut down draining a small ocean of capital from the financial system and pushing many of the banks and hedge funds closer to default. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 21, 2008
New Recovery Upleg for S&P Stock Market Index? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Although th e-Mini S&P 500 (e-SPH) has given up its early gains, my sense is that the upmove from yesterday's low to this morning's high is the first upmove in a new recovery upleg that is destined to hurdle key "triple top" resistance at 1369.25-1371.50, and which should trigger upside acceleration towards a retest of the Feb high at 1400.00. From an intraday perspective, let's keep an eye on 1351/00, which represents the 50% pullback support area of the rally from yesterday's low to today's high, and which should contain forthcoming weakness if my bullish near-term count is to remain viable.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Interest Rate Cut Cycles Correlate with Negative Stock Market Returns / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Michael_Pento
Don't Bet the Farm on Rate Cuts! - The black hole consisting of record consumer debt ($2.52 trillion), falling asset prices, elevated inflation and weakening job and income growth is pulling us inexorably towards recession. As a result, the cacophony for yet more rate cuts has now become deafening. These rate cuts are anticipated to cure all of our ills, from the credit crisis to the Ebola virus. But will the lower interest rates really solve the banking crisis and turn the equity markets around in short order? I thought it would be informative to look at the last two interest rate cycles and compare them to the performance of the equity market. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Narodny Rock Bank and the G7's Men of Action / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Individually or together...erm...in pretty difficult and uncertain times...erm..."
IN TIMES OF CRISIS , it's always good to know there are bright, committed people working non-stop to sort things out. Or so everyone seems to believe.
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Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Financial Stocks Make Tradeable Low / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Judging by the improving technical condition of some of the members of the Financial Select Sector SPDR (AMEX: XLF), such as Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), AIG, GS, and MS, perhaps this morning's low at 26.20 will suffice as the third such low of a near-term triple bottom completion of the pullback off of the Feb 1 high at 30.00? If that proves to be accurate, then confirmation that a significant corrective low has been established will come only upon a hurdle of the key Feb down trendline resistance now at 27.00. Until then, I only have indications that a tradable low is in place.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Another Roller Coaster Week for the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Congress was busy last week – and fortunately not in our back pockets. Between the baseball steroid issues and interviewing/questioning both the Federal Reserve chairman and Treasury Secretary, you'd think they were really looking out for the country's best interest. Congress is in an uproar over whether Roger Clemens (or his wife) did or did not take steroids and who is lying or just mis-remembering. The collective brainpower that was brought to bear on this important national issue was something to behold. From there they interviewed the Fed Chair and Treasury Secretary – and evidently they believe the economy is a bit worse than originally thought, but by yearend should be back on track.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Stock Market Bears on the Defensive / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
I am not sure what to make of the whipsaw action in the ProShares UltraShort Inverted SPY ETF (AMEX: SDS) since Friday morning's surge that tested the Jan-Feb resistance line at 64.20. However, technically, that test failed! Now we find the price structure probing the vicinity of its opposite number: its Jan-Feb support line, now at 60.60, which must contain any forthcoming weakness to avert a potential downside acceleration (that represents a powerful advance in the major equity market ETFs). If the bears were in the drivers seat last Friday morning, they now find themselves on the defensive.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Stock Market Imminent Panic / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Captain_Hook
Finding Religion Is Not Necessarily An Uplifting ExperienceUninformed odds players are calling a bottom on the stock market citing extreme technical and sentiment related readings. It's too bad they are not history students as well, but that was the boring and unnecessary elective in school most declined to take seriously. These dip buyers are about to learn a very expensive lesson in my opinion, as in terms of market internals and sentiment, we are currently poised for a crash of potentially monumental proportions. Finding religion will have a new meaning for these guys afterwards as their futures become more uncertain, and their appreciation for gold should be raised a notch or two as well as a panic attack shakes some trees. This is when we expect the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) take out closing basis triple top resistance at 31 on its way to 45, and perhaps beyond.
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Monday, February 18, 2008
Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson - What They Needed to Say / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Andy_Sutton
This week, we saw in mild fashion what can happen when at least one part of society begins to have doubts about another's ability to do its job. We saw Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson on Capitol Hill this week offering testimony to Congress about the various messes we are involved in as a nation, including, but not limited to: the credit mess, the housing mess, the economic situation, the stimulus package and the list goes on. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 18, 2008
US Credit Markets Are Collapsing! - Last Chance to Defend Your Portfolio! / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: The U.S. credit markets, the giant growth engine that powers the American economy, are collapsing ... with few credit sectors spared from damage, few investors escaping losses, and little hope of federal action that's quick or strong enough to make a major difference.
Here's what's happening ...
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Monday, February 18, 2008
Stock Market Bulls on the Defensive and Gasping for Air / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Joseph_Russo
BULLS FUMBLE - First-Down - BEARS - The near 20% decline from peak to trough in the October 2007 - January 2008 period, marked a potentially devastating turnover for Bulls. After throwing a near interception back in August, Bulls held steady, recovered, then fumbled critically at the October ‘07 highs.
Bears handily took possession thereafter, and have scored an undeniable first-down with the lows hit in January. Despite the aid of statist intervention along with surety of more where that came from, the Bullish contingent finds itself in the very rare and awkward position of playing defense.
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Monday, February 18, 2008
Key to Interpreting the Stock Market - Technical Or Fundamental Analysis? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Clif_Droke
One of the best practitioners of technical analysis of the last 30-40 years, and one of my personal favorites, was Ralph Bloch. Bloch was for many years the chief market technician with Raymond James and was renown for his down-to-earth manner and “say it like it is” approach to the stock market.
Bloch was known for using only the most basic of all analytical tools when it came to T.A. and he relied mainly on the charts and the tape for his trading decisions. When it came to his technical approach to the market, he once described himself as “a ham-and-egger…I'm a Technical Analysis 101 guy all the way.”
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Sunday, February 17, 2008
Stock Market Update: Blemishes on the Bears' Elliott Wave Count / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Dominick
Another week is now history and the bear case is looking worse for it. Not that the market can't go down from here, but if it does, it won't be the impulsive 3 rd wave for which so many have been waiting and waiting and waiting.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Stock Market Scenarios for the Week Ahead / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Here is a look at the two scenarios for the SPY -- the S&P 500 ETF. My
preferred count calls for a climb towards 140 prior to the completion of the
countertrend rally phase off of the January 22 low (126.00). However,
weakness that breaks and sustains below 131.70 will be problematic and
likely will trigger a plunge to new lows.
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Sunday, February 17, 2008
Stock Markets to Retest January Lows in Coming Months / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The bottom indicators are suggesting there is little risk in the market.
Short Term - After a bottom has been made downside volume (DV) dries up pretty quickly. That has not happened yet, but it is encouraging to see DV falling off faster in the small cap indices than the large cap indices.
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Sunday, February 17, 2008
Stock Market Crash Danger as Imminent Downgrades of Credit Insurers Threatens US Economy / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
Credit Insurers Must Keep AAA Rating or Else -This week, on Thursday, February 14th , Bernanke spoke, markets fell. Confidence in the Fed Chairman wanes. From a fundamental perspective, until something is done to bail out the credit insurers, so they maintain their AAA rating from Moodys and S&P, market rallies will be corrective. This is an economic nuclear bomb at 32,000 feet. This is about bank solvency, bank risk-based capital, the bank credit function, not about the insurers themselves. Should a downgrade come to the insurers, billions of municipal bonds will effectively become illiquid, joining the trillion of CDOs (mostly subprime loan securities) that have already become illiquid. Without a bailout here, we are headed for a depression. Period.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Primary Stocks Bear Market Crunch Time! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Brian_Bloom
The monthly chart below (courtesy bigcharts.com ) is showing that the Nasdaq needs to bounce up from here to avoid breaking down. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Warren Buffet to the Rescue, Credit Crisis Creates Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
- Warren Buffet to the Rescue?
- How to Earn 20% in Tax-Free Income
- What Would Warren Do?
- A Crisis Creates an Opportunity
- It's All About Valuations
- There Are Times to Be Grateful
It was only a few years ago that I use to sit down at this computer on Friday and wonder what I would write about. In today's environment, there is enough to write three e-letters and still leave interesting copy on the editing floor. Today we look at the rather disturbing developments in the municipal bond market, Warren Buffett's offer to "rescue" the tax-exempt insurers, and ponder what the resolution will be. We also look at corporate earnings, and note how they have been downgraded significantly over the last year. There is (or will be) a connection between stock market prices, valuation, the current credit crisis, and the economy. There is a lot of ground to cover.
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Saturday, February 16, 2008
US Treasuries Auction Failure Suggests Stocks Dead Cat Bounce is Over / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Some wealthy investors got a jolt this week as Goldman Sachs informed them that they would be unable to withdraw their money from an investment considered “safe as cash.” These investments are so-called “ auction rate securities ,” credit instruments now caught in the latest liquidity squeeze. Banks and brokerage houses have sold these instruments to investors, claiming them to be safe. The fact is, they are long-term securities on which the banks hold weekly or monthly auctions to set prices and interest rates. This week's auction was a failure of major proportions.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Fiat Currency Credit Creation to Prevent Banking System Failure / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Ty_Andros
Bombfire of the Vanities! - As the Wolf wave of income growth spreads throughout the G7 (see 2008 outlook in the archives at www.TraderView.com ), the last several years of financial alchemy lights fires to bond markets, banks and financial institutions worldwide. The complete and absolute mispricing of risk since Alan Greenscam, er Greenspan, became Federal Reserve chairman in 1987 is now causing the great inflationary crisis predicted by Ludvig von Mises. The days of New York as financial capital to the world are coming to an end! They can never regain the confidence of their customers! The epicenter of this unfolding crisis is Wall Street, but the bomb blasts are occurring throughout the G7 and the world. You can expect the G7 central banks to act in a predictable manner. THEY WILL PRINT THE MONEY! Read full article... Read full article...