Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
The Coming Collapse of International Credit Ratings Agencies - Moody's, Standard & Poor, and Fitch / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Alex_Wallenwein
So you thought the Ambac/MBIA bond insurers crisis was bad? You ain't seen nothin' yet
The problem, the challenge, the scandal, is not that the bond insurers are about to be downgraded. The real scandal lies in the fact that they haven't been downgraded a long time ago - and much deeper than from "AAA" to "AA". In fact, what needs to be downgraded are the major international credit ratings agencies, Moody's, Standard & Poor, and Fitch.
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Wednesday, February 06, 2008
The Help Wanted Index vs. the US Recession Question ... / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
For years, I have followed the government's Help Wanted Ad numbers. The Help Wanted Ads are a precursor as to what will be happening on Employment in the future. As such, it is an important indicator to watch relative to recession questions.
I created this chart on Saturday that shows the Help Wanted data going back to 2005. What is noteworthy, is that for the past 2 years, the December and January Help Wanted numbers have all shown a drop over the October/November numbers. The big event has been February, where the Help Wanted ads zoom up higher than the preceding 2 or 3 months.
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Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Sector Rotation for Recession - Lessons from the Business Cycle / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
By: Donald_W_Dony
In their never ending pursuit to uncover the next undervalued company, portfolio managers and investors often forget how equities, as a whole, fit into the stock market and business cycles. Though it is important to focus on the individual issues, it is never wise to forget about the surrounding environment and its positive or negative influences.
The basic pattern of the business or economic cycle has four steps. These steps, though never exactly unfold the same during each cycle, the basic structure remains firm and should be remembered.
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Tuesday, February 05, 2008
America and the Myth of Free Markets / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Who's Been Goosing Goldilocks ?- The power of myth is extraordinary. Correctly applied, the ignorant will believe themselves enlightened and slaves will believe themselves free.
When credit markets began to unravel in the summer of 2007, central bankers and economists were surprised. In retrospect, they should not have been. Warnings of a speculative bubble were issued as soon as cheap credit began distorting housing prices in 2003. Denial, however, always trumps reason in the presence of profits—or ulterior motive in the case of Greenspan.
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Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Investors Gripped by Fear of Potential Financial Markets Meltdown / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Dr_William_R_Swagell
Scared? You Should Be.
I wonder if any member of the Federal Reserve almost choked on his barbecued brisket when world financial markets threatened to go into meltdown while Wall Street was closed over the Martin Luther King Holiday.
On “ Black Tuesday ” January 22nd, 2008 world markets crashed...Australia down 7%, Japan down 5.7%, Shanghai down 7.2%, Jakarta down 7.7%, Hang Seng down 8.7%, FTSE down 5.5%, Paris and Frankfurt down 7%. These drops were on top of earlier falls since January 1st which had Germany down 19%, London down 13%, Hong Kong down 13%, Japan down 16% and saw Emerging Markets also hit by double-digit losses. The Australian market was down a bruising 24% from its high last November.
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Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Dow Short ETF (DXD) Suggests Stock Market Strength / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
As many of you know, I examine the technical work of the inverted ultrashort equity ETFs to see if they provide clues about the direction of the major equity averages... Let's take a look at the pattern and technical underpinnings that have developed in the UltraShort Dow Diamond ETF (AMEX: DXD). Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Stock Market Awaiting Economic Signals and Follow-Through / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Taking a cue from my old DJ days, this past week could be summed in a couple of tracks from some scratchy wax – Give The People What They Want and More, More, More. The Fed has cut rates by 125 basis points with the most recent 50bp cut in less than 10 days – and once done, the markets were wondering if there would be another 50bp cut before their next meeting at the end of March. It took the Fed a full month in Jan 2001 to cut rates by 150bp – in the midst of the beginning phase of a recession.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 04, 2008
Stock and Financial Markets Major Dangers! Massive Opportunities! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
When the number registrants for our recent online conference eclipsed the 25,000 mark, I was naturally surprised. It was the most widely attended event of its kind in history.
But I am not surprised to see that many of the changes we talked about are unfolding so quickly — new highs in gold, the worst job losses in four years, the biggest consumer retrenchment since 9/11, and the most rapid collapse of bond ratings of all time.
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Sunday, February 03, 2008
Stock Markets Cleanse House of Speculative Positions / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Joseph_Russo
Free-Market Dynamics vs. Statist Intervention In this particular round (likely the start of the 15 th ), one may assume that at present, the round is even on points. Free Market Dynamics have scored in breaching some minor structural under-pinning's of the artificially-engineered perennial Bull - and the Statists have scored in response - thus far placing a perceived “floor” against the free markets natural propensity to adequately cleanse abuse and excess.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 03, 2008
Looking Past the Current Stock Market Crisis for Strong Financial's / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
By: Roger_Conrad
The news keeps getting more disturbing for America's financial system. Just minutes after the US Federal Reserve slashed rates by half a point this week, the market turned its focus to an announcement by Fitch that it was slashing ratings of major bond insurance group Financial Guaranty Insurance Company (FGIC), triggering fears that it had others in its sights as well. That was compounded by the horrific fourth quarter earnings turned in by rival insurer MBIA, which was forced to defend itself against rumors that it could be headed toward insolvency.
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Saturday, February 02, 2008
Manipulation of US Employment Statistics - Revision Higher Next Month? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Minimizing the (un)employment report - The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its January Employment Situation Report. According to the BLS, the employment situation was “essentially unchanged.” Buried in the report was the offhand mention that we had “a small January movement in nonfarm payroll employment (-17,000).” Small movement? The expectations were for a 70,000 increase!
Omitted from the report was the CES Birth/Death Model , which normally puts a positive spin on the employment report. Not this time! According to this model, all sectors of the economy suffered losses, with the grand total 378,000 jobs lost in January. Maybe this is a statistical fluke, but you can imagine some bureaucrat storming into the statisticians' offices and saying, “Fix it!” There will be revisions in next month's report.
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Saturday, February 02, 2008
Stock Market Tug o' War Between Bulls and Bears / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
If the palpable struggle between the bulls and bears was not obvious this week, from early on Monday, through the Fed announcement, and right up to Friday's close … I'm not sure you're paying attention. But even if you could feel the tension, there's nothing like a few charts to really spell out the situation.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 02, 2008
Short-term Upside in S&P 500 & Nasdaq Stock Market Indices / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
This week we're looking at some short-term patterns for trading this volatile market, starting with the hourly chart on the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (SPY), as of just before Friday's close.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 02, 2008
The Stock Market - FTSE Bull or Bear? / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Fat_Prophets
So far, 2008 has been an extraordinary year for investors. Sharp falls in December and January, which culminated in last Tuesday morning's panic selling, saw the FTSE100 down more than 20 percent from October highs. This supposed magic 20 percent figure sparked widespread talk of an 'official bear market'. But for the remainder of the week, the market rallied, thus pulling us out of bear market territory. Does this mean we're back in a bull market?
"On the one hand we have a contracting global credit bubble and on the other we have the US authorities manning the liquidity pumps to stimulate a flagging economy. "
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Friday, February 01, 2008
US Banking System Teetering on the Brink of Collapse / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Mike_Whitney
Somebody goofed. When Fed chairman Ben Bernanke cut interest rates to 3% yesterday, the price of a new mortgage went up. How does that help the flagging housing industry?
About an hour after Bernanke made the announcement that the Fed Funds rate would be cut by 50 basis points the yield on the 30-year Treasury nudged up a tenth of a percent to 4.42%. The same thing happened to the 10 year Treasury which surged from a low of 3.28% to 3.73% in less than a week. That means that mortgages which are priced off long-term government bonds---will be going up, too.
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Friday, February 01, 2008
Stock Market Investment Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime! / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: No, I'm not talking about U.S. stocks! Despite yesterday's half point rate cut from the Fed, my stance on the U.S. economy and stock market has not changed. And I hope you've listened to my suggestion to shed most of your U.S. stocks, with the exception of select gold miners and natural resource plays.
But what about China? China's stock market has fallen as much as 32% since its recent peak, begging the questions ...
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Thursday, January 31, 2008
Banking Index and Shanghai Stock Market Index at Critical Levels / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
We have previously pointed out that the financial and banking sectors are very important relative to the
S&P 500 for a very good reason ... and the reason is that financial's make up 20% of all the S&P 500 stocks.
So, the first chart we will look at today is the Banking Index. The Index has been in a bear market since February of 2007 when it dropped from its peak. Like all down trends, the index has continued to make Lower/Highs and Lower/Lows.
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Thursday, January 31, 2008
PANDEMONIUM! - US Financial Markets in Uproar After Fed Loses All Traction / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Alex_Wallenwein
From Merriam Webster's Online Dictionary: Pandemonium. noun; Etymology: New Latin, from Greek pan- + daimo-n evil spirit — more at demon . Date: 1667. 1: the capital of Hell in Milton's "Paradise Lost." 2: the infernal regions: hell . 3: not capitalized : a wild uproar : tumult .
On Wednesday January 30, 2008, the last stops to a total collapse of the US financial structure were pulled out. The elevator cable is now cut, with the elevator carriage at the 45th floor of a 50-floor skyscraper. If you believe you can "jump" to avoid getting crushed when the carriage hits the concrete floor below - good luck!
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Thursday, January 31, 2008
US Interest Rate Cut Bombs! Fed Trapped Between Rock and a Hard Place! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Bernanke's half-point rate cut this afternoon initially gave the stock market a quick shot in the arm.
But then the Dow turned right around, gave back every penny of its gains, and ended the day DOWN 37 points!
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Thursday, January 31, 2008
US Fed 0.50% Rate Cut Fails to Boost a Fragile Stock Market / Stock-Markets / US Interest Rates
By: Donald_W_Dony
The aggressive 50bps Fed rate cut and the finishing negative numbers points to the deep fragility of the stock market. As the rate now sits at 3%, this leaves very little room for the Fed to cut any further. This is particularly concerning as the new bear market has potentially 18-30 months of additional downward pressure on the stock market and the economy.Read full article... Read full article...