Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Greenspans Unbelievable Response to Financial Market Turmoil Due to Formation of His Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Brian_Bloom
If you read the media article below (Greenspan interview) in context of an understanding that “energy drives the economy”, and in context of the rising trendline of the PMO oscillator on the 30 year Bond Yield monthly chart, you have to agree with Greenspan.
The third quote highlighted is almost unbelievable in its disingenuousness. The man is either unbelievably stupid or unbelievably dishonest or unbelievably obtuse. But the emphasis is on the word “unbelievable”. How else could these bubbles have formed, Mr Greenspan? Please explain.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Nasdaq Bullish Ahead of Fed Interest Rate Decision - Long the QQQQ's / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
So far the first hour of trading has expanded the "inside triangle" in the Q's (Nasdaq: QQQQ) towards a test of yesterday's high at 44.72, which so far has contained the early strength. In the aftermath of the minor rally from 44.00 to 44.61, micro support on any pullback now becomes 44.40, then 44.20/00, which must hold to avert a decline that expands the trading range to the downside (a nasty whipsaw that could in fact be in the cards ahead of, and possibly immediately after, the FOMC decision). For the time being, I will remain long, looking for additional strength that pops the Q's above 44.72 on the way to 45.00 before Fed time.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Asian Emerging Market Stocks Rocket on Strong Growth Outlook / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: What an amazing bounce!
You may think I'm talking about last Wednesday's big 298-point rally for the Dow Jones, but I'm not. I'm referring to a much bigger bounce that happened across the Pacific Ocean on the same day:
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
FSA - UK Regulator Warns of Breakdown of Business Models of Some Financial Institutions / Stock-Markets / Market Regulation
By: Submissions
The Financial Services Authority (FSA) today published its Financial Risk Outlook (FRO) warning firms and consumers of the risks inherent in a significantly less benign economic environment. Its central scenario identifies the following five priority risks:Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Rogue Trader Criminal Mastermind or Example of Incompetent Regulation and Risk Management / Stock-Markets / Market Regulation
By: Adrian_Ash
"We need to stay cool and send positive signals...I repeat: We shouldn't create alarm." Joaquin Almunia, European commissioner for monetary affairs, interviewed by Der Spiegel , Jan 27th
JEROME KERVIEL, fast-overtaking John Law as France's worst-ever financial mishap, claimed on his most recent resumé to enjoy judo and sailing, as well as running up $7.1 billion in losses for his employers in his spare time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
S&P Stock Market Index Heading Higher / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The vast majority of my technical work points still higher in the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) before the recovery upleg runs its initial course on the upside. At this juncture, my pattern work indicates that prices are carving out a high level, near-term bullish consolidation area that should resolve itself to the upside either into, or in reaction to, tomorrow's FOMC decision.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Stock Market Top Identified by Business Cycle - Rotate Sectors for Growth / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
By: Donald_W_Dony
The rhythmic rise and fall of equity sectors throughout the business cycle has told economist, analysts and investors for decades the positions of the economic and stock market cycles. Certain equity sectors typically advance at different phases of the cycles which provide important clues and can dramatically assist in portfolio performance. For example, financial's normally lead the stock market and are one of the first to decline before the market top and one of the first to advance in the late bear phase. The transportation sector is also one of the strongest performing groups in the early bull market but usually rolls over at the top signaling the end of the bull market is near. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 28, 2008
US Stock Market Not Pricing in Recession! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: John_Mauldin
What a difference a week makes! Recession talk is everywhere. This begs the question, are markets priced for such a possibility? We would suggest the answer is a resounding no. Valuation and cyclical risk are enormous. Yet, investors pile on the pressure by believing they can tell 'true' growth stocks from young pretenders. Simultaneously, investors seem to have transformed into speculators. This creates opportunities for those with the discipline to stick to their long-term process. Such investors are likely to find comfort in cash, if they are allowed. Failing that, large cap dividend paying stocks are probably the best place to hide. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 28, 2008
Stocks in a Bear Market! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: David_Shvartsman
Last week we talked about how the US stock market's recent bearish action had spread worldwide .Today we're going to take a look at where the US markets currently stand, and give you a quick overview of why we think US stocks have entered a bear market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 28, 2008
US Government Rescue Plan is Too Little Too Late as the Liquidity Bubbles Burst / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Money_and_Markets
For politicians, the government's $150 billion stimulus package is a no-brainer. But for investors, it's a bomb that could greatly intensify the flood of disasters now unfolding. In my open letter below, I explain why. And in the days ahead, we will give you step-by-step instructions for an ark of protection that would make Noah proud. — Martin Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 28, 2008
Fed Rate Cut Ignites a Short-lived Stock Market Relief Rally / Stock-Markets / US Interest Rates
By: Paul_J_Nolte
In this day and age of instant access/analysis and reactions, how can one person have such an effect upon the markets…and it is not the Fed Chief. Could it be that one trader, working for Societe General, create such a mess that the unwinding could push down all the markets around the world and force the Fed here to cut rates by 75 basis points (bp)? Given the relatively unchanged market from the prior week, maybe – however looking at the trading activity for the week, it is a difficult argument to make. As usual, the trading of the week, as well as the news answers fewer questions than it creates, but a few interesting nuggets may be gleaned from some of the very thin data.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 28, 2008
Questioning The Global Stock Market Growth Metric / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Captain_Hook
Previously, tactics employed yesterday by price managers to squeeze stocks higher worked well on a prolonged basis, but because bearish traders are not willing to fall for this anymore means rallies are fleeting. (More on this below.) And Da Boyz used up quite a few cards yesterday for a meager 10-point gain in the S&P 500 (SPX), with the most notables in addition to the Bernanke promise of lower rates (meaning it's now discounted in the market) being the rumor Bank Of America is buying Countrywide Financial (meaning this too is now discounted in the market), along with American Airlines raising the pot by opening merger talks. Of course, neither of these sound bites will do anything to help an increasingly stressed consumer, the larger credit crunch, nor increasing cases of insolvency in the end.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 28, 2008
Stock Market Rally Expected to Continue / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in process.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 28, 2008
Davos, Debt & Systemic Failure - When West Meets East / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
The preferred diet of most Davos attendees is a fusion inspired composition of individual, government, and corporate debt combined with a free-market frisee of lax regulatory oversight held together by a roux of central bank credit that dissolves instantly when paired with matching counter-party risk.
The January 2008 gathering in Davos , Switzerland at the World Economic Forum is similar to the 1957 meeting in Palermo , Sicily of American and Sicilian Cosa Nostra crime families who met to discuss mutual problems and opportunities. The notable difference being that those in the Cosa Nostra live outside the law; while those at the World Economic Forum in Davos make them.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Stock Market in the Early Stages of a Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: · In the past week new lows dried up on both the NYSE and OTC this implies downside risk will be limited for the next several weeks.
Short Term
Last Tuesday there were 1114 new lows on the NYSE and 877 on the NASDAQ, some of the highest numbers ever recorded. On Friday, a down day, there were 35 new lows on the NYSE and 68 on the NASDAQ. The extremely high numbers on Tuesday imply the bear market is not over while the rapid reduction of new lows implies downside risk will be limited for the next few weeks or months.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Stock Market Bounce - SELL The Rallies! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Money_and_Markets
While stock investors are celebrating late last weeks surprise rally in the Dow, most bond investors are bracing themselves for a new disaster of unquantifiable dimensions.
Ground zero of the new crisis: Precisely the companies that I said would be at ground zero — collapsing bond insurers like MBIA and Ambac, along with the hundreds of thousands of bonds they cover.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Plunge Protection Team Orchestrating a Stock Market Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Joseph_Russo
A Work in Progress
Well, it is blatantly obvious that the (PPT) plunge protection team, presidents working group – or whatever they call themselves - found it necessary to intervene in the free-market in attempt to orchestrate a bottom.
Where are these guys when markets are a boiling-pot of unsustainable parabolic animal spirit? We suspect during such episodes, they are patting themselves on the back for planting the seeds for such bullish orgies
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Stock Market Update: The French 'Rogue Trader' Connection / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
You may recall in November and December I mentioned patterns that called for a Santa Claus rally extending into the first several months of '08. Now that we know of the colossal fraud at France 's second largest bank, I believe we probably would have seen that rally unfold if not for the liquidation of the massive Societie Generale long positions. As you know, the selling climaxed in the huge holiday selloff early this week and fostered lingering insecurity even after the emergency rate cut until we finally learned Wednesday who killed our rally: the French did it!!Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Stock Market Crash - Robert Prechter on Bloomberg Youtube Video / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Everyone wants to know, "Is the worst over for stocks?" If you're familiar with Bob Prechter and his work, you won't be surprised that his short answer is "NO." But ... it's his long answer that is much more compelling, including insights into what you should be doing NOW to prepare for what's still to come.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Fed Duped by Rogue Trader and the Destruction of Bond Insurers / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: John_Mauldin
- What Does the Fed Really Know?
- Fed's Folly: Fooled by Flawed Futures?
- Brother, Can You Spare a Billion?
- $5 Billion a Quarter
- Planes, Trains, and Santa Barbara
- And Charlie Wilson's War
It had been my original intention to devote this week's letter to the view from Europe, as I have been here for the last week, but events have changed that goal. The Federal Reserve made a very rare inter-meeting rate cut of 75 basis points this week, after the worldwide markets were in turmoil. Many pundits suggest the Fed was responding to the worldwide collapse in stock prices. This week we examine that suggestion, and I will offer an alternative explanation. I am beginning this letter in a London subway train. Quickly, the consensus wherever I go seems to be that Europe and the United Kingdom are also headed into recession. There is a lot of interesting ground to cover, so let's get started.
Read full article... Read full article...