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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Forecasts & Technical Analysis

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Monday, October 07, 2013

Forecast Psychology, Us Treasury Bond Bubble, Extreme Gold Price Rise / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The analytic discussion and defense of viewpoints concerning the grandest asset bubble in history is covered, as well as exposure of corrupted markets. In addition, take the opportunity to discuss intriguing human psychology regarding forecasts. It might be enlightening to many folks. It might be entertaining to some. It is not complimentary of the human species actually. One is reminded of Cassandra in Greek Mythology. The USTreasury Bond market has been a frequent topic of analysis. This perspective is on the bubble dynamics mixed with forecast psychology. The recent essay featuring the Flash Trading and other USTreasury Bond factors deserves further discussion, since so important. To be sure, High Frequency Trading, also known as Flash Trading, is not skin in the game, and not typical capital at risk. It is a blatant price control practice that produces false levitation in asset prices and distorted volume reported. A good deal more light on the phony USTreasury Bond market is shed, which is not well understood for its status as being the greatest asset bubble in human history, not just modern history. It exceeds the housing & mortgage bubble that formed a decade ago, if not from volume, then from scope, since it is laced throughout the entire global banking system.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 03, 2013

Forecast Psychology & Rebuttal to Gary North / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Jim_Willie_CB

A rebuttal is warranted. The entire analytic discussion, defense of viewpoints, exposure of corrupted markets, and intriguing human psychology regarding forecasts is covered. It might be enlightening to many folks. It might be entertaining to some. It might be tawdry to a few. Gary North sounds more like a mainstream financial apologist than a sound money advocate. His days at the Lew Rockwell Institute are over. He seems a confused man with a limited comprehension of either the financial system or market developments, who has offered a shallow dispute of the Jackass recent perspective on the USTreasury Bond market. Given his extremely unimpressive analytic ability and dim vision, with a certain blindness extended from a certain perceptual inversion, he will be referred to henceforth as Mr South. Nothing personal, just hard to respect incredibly shallow attacks with no solicitation, surely without recognition of my past correct forecast trail. South is surely a good man, just not a good analyst. His recent essay featuring the Flash Trading and other USTreasury Bond factors was an unsolicited disgraceful assault with hardly a single point of valid substance. It was an extremely unimpressive display.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Personality and Persistent Incorrect Conclusions / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Submissions

Mark Blair writes:

‘ . . . we are all too often swayed by emotion rather than reason, and for the most part by emotion of which we ourselves are only imperfectly aware.’ Charles Rycroft, Anxiety and Neurosis

             It is noteworthy that so many analysts correctly comprehend the ‘quality’ of the present socio-economic model – that its spectacular failure is baked in the cake – but (repeatedly) misapprehend the ‘quantity,’ that is, when the failure will occur. We are discouraged from recognising this particular elephant in the room (and some others); but now – almost a half a decade into the GFC – it really is time to broach the subject.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

U.S. Stock and Financial Market Forecasts, Charts, Videos, and Analysis / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDear investor,

When it comes to market forecasts, conventional analysts look at all the wrong indicators: the Federal Reserve, the latest economic data, the political campaign, or the trending financial scandal of the week.

At Elliott Wave International, we don't. Readers often ask us, "Why?"

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Economics

Monday, June 27, 2011

Can the Fed and Economists Forecast the Future? / Economics / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBusiness Talk Radio host Gabriel Wisdom recently spoke with Pete Kendall, Co-Editor of EWI's Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Their discussion included a crucial but rarely asked question about economists and the Federal Reserve. Here's the relevant excerpt: 

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InvestorEducation

Thursday, January 21, 2010

How Predictable Are Black Swans? The Black Swan Hunters / InvestorEducation / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Eduardo_Moreno

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe invest using the scientific method and tools such as convergent evolution and comparative economic history in order to try to predict black swans. Here is our story:

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 07, 2009

Stock Market , Gold, Commodities and Economic Forecasts for 2010 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Martin_D_Weiss

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Weiss: Two recent mega-events — the Wall Street collapse in 2008 and the Washington response in 2009 … the debt implosion and then the money printing explosion — are mind-boggling in their dimensions.

Neither you nor I can know with certainty what the future will bring. But at this particular juncture, we don’t have to poke around in hidden crevices of the economy. Nor must we stretch our imagination to conjure this or that scenario. To get a pretty good idea of what’s likely to happen next year, all we have to do is follow the path of natural consequences from these two mega-events. And that’s what we’re going to do right here and now.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 06, 2009

Free Access to Robert Prechter's Current Elliot Wave Theorist and Financial Forecast Reports / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: EWI

It has been an exciting week in the markets. And FreeWeek attendees have been enjoying the ride.

FreeWeek Update: Elliott Wave International's publications have alerted subscribers -- and FreeWeek attendees -- that volume and breadth readings have been contracting throughout the multi-month rally, which signals a critical juncture ahead.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 08, 2009

Probable Price Ranges for SPY, FXI, UUP and TLT / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Richard_Shaw

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is no way to realistically make a precise price prediction for a particular date for a traded security.  It is possible, however, to observe the recent historical volatility (standard deviation) of a security to make realistic estimates of the probable range within which the security price may close through a future date.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Stock Market Forecast S&P500 1400 by End 2010, and 400 by 2014 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Lorimer_Wilson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMerrill Lynch Asia (Bank of America) strategists Sadiq Currimbhoy, Arik Reiss, and Jacky Tang suggest that the S&P 500 could soar another 40% by December 2010 before it collapses completely based on a unique comparison with the Nikkei 225. (Before you reject this possibility out of hand please read the entire article.)

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InvestorEducation

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Why Are We Such Suckers For Prediction? / InvestorEducation / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Charles_Maley

I keep CNBC on all day while I work. Perhaps I think I will miss something, or maybe it’s the background noise that’s appealing. In any event, what I always find amazing is the parade of experts making one prediction after another. I think I would fall out of my chair if I heard one of them say “Well, to tell you the truth Mark, I have no idea”.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, August 13, 2009

The Case for Market Timing / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Stathis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTo those of you who say it's impossible to time or forecast the market; to those of you who keep wasting your time reading and watching the clowns positioned as so-called "experts" by the media; I ask you where have their forecasts been?  

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Stock-Markets

Friday, August 07, 2009

Stock Market Bear Bashing, The Teddy Bears' Picnic: All Eyes On The Broken Clock! / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFive months later and the S&P went up from 666 to pierce 1,000 and hardly a day passes without another theory for why it will dive catastrophically to 450.

Perhaps one day the watchers of that particular clock will be rewarded, but although they are adamant about the existence of the "end of the world" like Jehovah Witnesses they cleverly don't give any clues about when?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Sunday, August 02, 2009

Stock Market Long Wave Theory 92% Right (On S&P 500); Buffett & Roubini 75% Wrong / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Andrew_Butter

January 2009 I thought I’d see if "market-long-wave" theory (which I previously only used for real estate), works for the US stock market.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Stocks, Gold, Silver and Crude Oil Inter Market Analysis & Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter a 10 week rally traders and investors are starting to think twice about dumping money into stocks. Since March, we have seen the equities market rally 30% and now everyone is starting to think prices are a little top heavy.

So what do we do now if the market is possibly forming an intermediate (6-10 week) correction?

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Commodities

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Stocks, Gold and Silver ETF Trading Outlook & Forecasts / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe broad market has been moving higher with great force the past 2 months. I have been expecting a top for the past 2-3 weeks. It looks like the market is starting to come in (sell off).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, April 20, 2009

Forecasts and Analysis for ALL Major Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor the first time ever, EWI is giving away one month of its most popular global analysis publication, a 120-page "little black book" of investment insights called Global Market Perspective, which includes EWI's three regional publications:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Friday, March 06, 2009

How To Tell a Good Forecast from a Bad One / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHere's a forecast for you. Clear and direct. As quoted by a Reuters reporter in his January 15, 2009, article, entitled, "Global Lending Thaw May Yet Return to Deep Freeze."

"'This is a temporary respite and when it's over, the stock market will make new lows...,' says Robert Prechter, chief executive officer at research company Elliott Wave International in Gainesville, Georgia." [Reuters, 1/15/09]

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Offbeat Economic and Financial Predictions for 2009 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Oxbury_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn this week's article, I wanted to follow up my article from last week – Predictions for 2009 - and this time offer some offbeat predictions for 2009. First, however, I wanted to make a few observations about making prognostications. Many times prognosticators look to the past for patterns which will repeat themselves in the future.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 07, 2008

Market Forecasts- US Dollar, Euro, Yen, Gold, Commodities / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Christopher_Laird

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSo much is happening with the USD and the critical US credit markets, as well as with gold and commodities. Now that the USD broke below the key 73 level on the USDX (US dollar index basket of currencies, heavily Euro weighted) many key issues come to the fore for gold and commodities.

Euro, commodities
First, the EU is still rather firm on interest rates, but they have a lot of pressure as the Euro breaks over 1.50. The ECB and EU have previously made comments that they could intervene in currency markets if the Euro breaks above 1.50 . Any indication that can happen will cause a significant USD turnaround. That would then apply to gold and oil as well, as these have risen so much recently and are due for profit taking (or that pressure is there). So, the Euro situation needs to be closely tracked, as any significant change in policy can cause oil, gold, and commodity profit taking.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Forecasts for 2008 - Stock and Financial Markets, Commodities, Housing and US Elections / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Tim_Iacono

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYesterday's review of predictions for 2007 wasn't nearly as good as the year before, but then the bar was set rather high back in 2006 . As it was, the results were again mostly A's with a few lower grades in areas where predictions probably shouldn't have been made anyway.

Of course, when three of the ten predictions are oil, gold, and the dollar, guesses of up, up, and down really are slam-dunks.

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Commodities

Monday, March 05, 2007

Gold Forecast - The Commercials Got it right! Gold to be weak for some weeks / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

On 21st February an article was posted titled COMMERCIALS ON THE ROPES. This article was based on the erroneous presumption that "this time round it will be different" - that the COT pattern would be broken by a surge in physical demand.

Well, as subsequent events have proved, this time round it wasn't different, it was the same as it has always been. The Commercial shorts rose to a very high level and gold's advance was killed and it went into sharp reverse. This was a serious error of judgment that will not be repeated.

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Commodities

Sunday, March 04, 2007

Gold and Silver Analysis - One Step Forward, Two Steps Back / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

It's true that the buying power of gold and silver could increase considerably during a period of acute economic calamity. But, as economists and other analysts have been quick to note over the past few days, the current data simply do not decisively forecast a recession in the U.S. , let alone a catastrophe of apocalyptic proportions. Yes, mortgage defaults are still a legitimate concern, but the numbers simply don't show any significant spillover from the housing or credit bubbles, at least not yet.

The most recent manufacturing data actually indicates a modest recovery in that sector. Even weak capital expenditure in the durable goods data, the seeming straw that broke the camel's back, is a shot across the bow, but hardly a sign of the end times.

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Commodities

Sunday, March 04, 2007

Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 4th March 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Merv_Burak

WOW! but no time to panic -- yet. Not good short term but still okay for the other time periods. Let's get on with the analysis.

GOLD LONG - TERM

Getting right to it, the long term P&F chart has reversed direction but not trend . What this means is that on the chart we are now heading downwards with the O s but have not issued a reversal of basic trend yet. On the long term chart we are still some distance to any kind of trend reversal signal so hang on to your hats, we may be in for more volatility ahead. At the present time the action would have to go as low as $555 before issuing a new bear signal. With some up and down volatility, enough to reverse the direction of the chart again, that could be increased to the $600 level but let's see what transpires. For now, the long term, per the P&F , is still intact.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 04, 2007

How do you Spell TOP in the Dow Jones and other Stock Market Indices / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Boris_Chikvashvili

How do you Spell Stock Market TOP ?

Look at the projection on the chart below - The Red curve SOLD QQQQ 44.73 2c From the Top.

The Original projection was posted 3 days before the top !

"Sentiment is Super Bullish, Bearish transportation not confirming, buying pressure is rising, stocks not responding. Dow has either topped Wednessday or may have 1% more left".

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Commodities

Sunday, March 04, 2007

GOLD Elliott Wave Analysis - Is Gold Really Safe? We Think Not / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Francois_Soto

Gold Truly Didn't Shine this Week
After trying to test without any success the $700 psychological level, the gold commodity plunged by more than $50 to nearly $640 this Friday from its short term top of $690. In the potential bear market that may occur in equities, are gold and gold stocks really safe investments in a mid term perspective? This is the question we will try to answer in this analysis using mainly the Elliott Wave Theory.

The Gold Commodity
The first question before starting the analysis is: When did the bull market in the gold commodity really begin? By looking at gold commodity in $USD, it's not that easy to answer this question because there are two possible periods: either mid 1999 or early 2001.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 03, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 3rd March 2007 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is: Last Tuesday NASDAQ volume of declining issues (OTC DV) was 24 times the volume of advancing issues (OTC AV). In the past ratios of that magnitude usually occurred near short term lows.

Short Term

Last Tuesday's 24 to 1 ratio of OTC AV / OTC DV ranks 8th highest since 1978, the first year for which I have NASDAQ volume data.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 02, 2007

Stock Market Falls - What to do now ? / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Hans_Wagner

On Tuesday February 27, 2006, the market once again told everyone that it is in charge with a 3.3% drop in the DJIA. When the market makes a move like it did, the first thing to do is step back and assess your situation. History shows us that significant drops in the market are not the start of a new bear market. There are exceptions; however, we are looking at the probabilities. As a result I do not believe this is a bear market. At least not yet. Days like today are often followed by further declines. Most times falls like this, present buying opportunities over the next few days, sometimes up to weeks.

This fall was caused by several factors including:

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Housing-Market

Thursday, March 01, 2007

US Housing Market - Homeownership Rate and Sub-Prime Mortgages - A Positive Correlation? / Housing-Market / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Chart 1 shows that the national homeownership rate (the percentage of occupied housing units that are owner occupied housing units) started rising sharply around 1995, hitting a record high in 2004. Why this sudden rise in homeownership?

Chart 1

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Major Top in Gold this Year ? - Elliott 5th Wave Peak ? / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Roland_Watson

Gold and silver were caught in the downdraft of selling on the stock exchanges today but having surged from last October's lows, a respite was always looming as the price increased.

However, the subject of this article is not the short-term movement of gold but where the next major sell point will be. There are various commentaries suggesting that gold will move fairly easily into quadruple digits with some breath to spare. I agree with these analysts that gold will move into four figures and then some. The only argument is when?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

The Ugly Reality of the US Stockmarket - How it suckers retail Investors / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

It doesn't take a great treatise or any "rocket science" to expose the ugly and sordid reality of the true condition of the broad US stockmarket - all it takes is a few charts and a modest helping of common sense.

The reason why the Dow Jones Industrials Average features so prominently in the mainstream financial press is that it is the principal tool used by wholesale vendors of stock to sucker the ordinary retail investor into buying at market tops. The recent past provides a perfect example.

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Currencies

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Free Access to EWI's Currencies Specialty Service - Forex Forecasts worth $99 / Currencies / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Sarah_Jones

We have great news from our network associate, Elliottwave.com. We have arranged FREE ACCESS to Elliottwave.com's Premium intraday and end-of-day Forex Forecast subscription service worth $99, for one full week for all of our site visitors!

Beginning March 1 at noon EST and ending March 8 at noon EST, anyone gets complete access to EWI's Currencies Specialty Service - Forex Forecasts at no cost! Your access includes:

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Currencies

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

US Dollar Index Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast / Currencies / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: David_Petch

Today's report is about analysis of the US Dollar Index. Fibonacci time extensions of two different waves are shown midway on the chart and Fib price retracements of the most recent decline from November till December shown on the right hand side. The 61.8% retracement level was strong resistance, which sent the index down to test the 38.2% retracement level. The lower 55 MA Bollinger band is rising, with the upper 55 MA BB declining.

This suggests we can expect to see the USD chopping sideways for 5-10 days before a sharp decline occurs. There is a Fib cluster around March 20 th , suggestive that a bottom in the USD looms around this date. Short-term stochastics have the %K beneath the %D, with another 3-4 weeks at a minimum before a bottom is in place.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Stock Markets follow China Lower - What to expect next as China's crash continues in Asia / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The FTSE 100 Index & Major European indices are expected to open sharply lower following on from sharp drops on Tuesday, which saw China's Shanghai index fall by 9% to 2771. The Dow Jones down by more than 3% to 12217, the largest drop since Sept 11th 2001.

All of the major markets broke key technical levels, signaling that the current bear run is likely to continue for some time. At the time of writing, asian stock markets continue to plunge lower on Wednesday morning, with many markets such as Australia and Japan falling further by nearly 4% at mid session.

What to Expect Next ?

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Global Mania is Deflating as China Crashes / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Paul_Lamont

According to a study by Knox and Inkster, a pair of Canadian psychologists, people are much more confident of their horses' chances of winning just after placing a bet, than they are immediately before they lay down the bet. As Robert Cialdini explains, “Of course, nothing about the horses' chances actually shifts; it's the same horse, on the same track, in the same field, but in the mind of the betters, its prospects improve significantly once that ticket is purchased. Once a stand has been taken, the need for consistency pressured these people to bring what they felt and believed in line with what they had already done.”

Markets are cyclical. Unfortunately, investors that stay fully invested, diversified, and ‘consistent' until the end of this bear market will lose most of their funds. In our last article , we concluded that a greater than 50% correction in the Chinese indexes over the next 2-3 years was highly probable. On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged 8.8%, the most in 10 years. The downside percentage decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be similar and will be detailed further in our next article.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Weekly Market Wrap - Commodities, Gold, Silver & Stock Markets 27th Feb / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

This week's market wrap will be shorter then usual, as we are on vacation. Next week the full market wrap will return.

The following will focus mainly on the precious metal's markets, which made nine-month highs this past week.

The first chart below is the daily chart of gold. The chart is self-explanatory.

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Commodities

Monday, February 26, 2007

Silver Forecast - Targeting Break of Key Resistance at $15.20 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

Although silver did not stage such an obviously important breakout as gold last week, it did nevertheless rise in tandem, and succeeded in breaking out above important resistance at its early December highs, putting it in position for "The Big One", which will be the breakout above last year's highs at about $15.20, which is an objective that silver, with its propensity for big moves could easily achieve in a single day from the current position.

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Commodities

Monday, February 26, 2007

Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 26th Feb 2007 - Technically P / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Merv_Burak

Tuesday was a bummer. Was someone playing around with the bullion? Wednesday was back on track and everything looks great.

GOLD - LONG TERM
Well, we now have a stronger confirmation on the long term P&F chart that the bull is on once more. The original upside break at $660 still had some resistance from earlier action but that was breached by the move to $690 this past week. Yes, there still is that previous high set last May but that is expected to be breached in not to distant future. When we draw our 45 degree up or down trend lines we can often draw a parallel resistance or support line.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 26, 2007

S&P Index Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis & Forecast / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

Last week I stated: We now have the potential of either seeing a final diagonal that the forum has been alerted to for months now, or an acceleration that will have most traders on the wrong side and flat broke within days. I haven't changed a thing about my view, but I'm not going to force a position if the market's out to get me. As members already know, I'm prepared to trade both ends of the trend.

Many weeks ago I had an upside target of 1472, and since last Monday's post, the target has been adjusted to 1462/1470. At this point that level is very doable, but much higher than that won't be a good thing for short traders.

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Commodities

Monday, February 26, 2007

Gold Bullish Breakout Confirmed / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

Gold has gone and done it - after first breaking out upside from its 3-arc Fan Correction in January, a major positive technical development celebrated in the article Gold powering up for major uptrend - SECTORWIDE BUY ALERT , last week it smashed through the ceiling of resistance at and towards $680, with subsequent solid action confirming that this was a genuine breakout.

In the Gold Market update of 23rd January it was stated "The situation is now very finely balanced with an army of traders either sat on the fence, or, depending on which way it breaks, on the wrong side of the trade. When it does break out - and it is beginning to look like it will be to the upside, there will be a stampede and an upside breakout from here could thus easily involve a $20 - $30 up day for gold." As you all know, that is exactly what we saw last week.

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Commodities

Monday, February 26, 2007

A Perfect Storm in Metals - Gold and Silver Breakouts / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

After long fall and winter seasons of expecting only gradual upward trends in the metals, with suspicion of large, fast moves, the bias of this update shifted two weeks ago as we described all the bullish fundamentals aligning in favor of the metals complex. We warned traders that a breakout had not yet occurred and that, while there was enough demand to prevent an all-out selloff, buyers should look for favorable entry points (we even took the opportunity to do a little shameless self promotion and mention our proprietary trend charts).

Specifically, we said:

"Even with bullish seasonality, money supply inflation, higher demand and geopolitical instability all creating a floor beneath gold and silver, it's still going to take a decisive catalyst to send these metals rocketing back to last May's highs and beyond."

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 24th Feb 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is: All of the major averages hit all time or multiyear highs last week.

Short Term
The picture is mixed. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell for 3 consecutive days after hitting a multiyear high last Tuesday.

The chart below covers the last 6 months showing the SPX in red and an indicator that shows the percentage of the last 3 trading days that were up in black. In the past 6 months the SPX has not fallen for more than 3 consecutive days. Except for the occurrence at the end of last year, each time there have been 3 consecutive down days it marked a short term low.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Warning China's Stock Market will Crash this year / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Marty_Chenard

Let me say this very simply ...

China's Stock Market will Crash sometime this year .

After listening to CNBC applaud the historic rise in the Shanghai index, I was elated to see the responsible reporting that the Los Angeles Times did on the subject. Staff writer Don Lee wrote the article in with the help of Cao Jun in the Shanghai Bureau. My congrats to them for writing a timely and informative piece that the rest of the media is avoiding.

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Commodities

Friday, February 23, 2007

Gold through the roof! Here's what's next for Gold Oil and the Stock Market / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Money_and_Markets

Larry here, with an urgent update on key markets, starting with gold.

The yellow metal went through the roof yesterday ... chalking up a stunning $23 gain on the day, blasting through its July peak ... and launching a price explosion that could easily send it to new, all-time highs very quickly.

Ditto for oil, which surged $1.22, and is now poised for a major new bull market.

Gold through the roof! Here's what's next for Gold Oil and the Stock Market

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 23, 2007

Gold Stocks Versus Crude Oil Stocks Forecast / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

The AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) closed 0.50% higher on Thursday, Feb. 22, to finish the day at 356.34 while the XAU was 0.16% higher at 146.05. The spot gold index closed at $379 while spot silver closed Thursday at $14.22.

In my Feb. 5 commentary on the natural resource stocks I wrote, "Although some of the XAU's price oscillators are slowly inching into positive territory and are no longer 'oversold,' the primary consideration right now isn't overbought versus oversold. It's the strongly rising internal momentum from a 90-day rate of change standpoint.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 22, 2007

Silver Investment Strategy - Knowing when to Sell / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Roland_Watson

As we anticipate the next and final leg of phase I of the precious metals bull market, investors need to be ready with their exit strategies if they wish to unload all or part of their assets in a profitable manner.

Not all holders of gold and silver will be of this mind, each has their own reason for holding or not holding any part of their investment. Either way, you need to be sure what you are going to do as silver begins to move in leaps and bounds towards the next major price peak.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Gold Surges to $680 as Commercials on the Ropes Cover Short Positions / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

Some people thought I was mad posting a GOLD and SILVER BREAKOUT ALERT on www.clivemaund.com on the 19th, what with the Commercials being so heavily short gold, and with yesterday's action I began to wonder myself, which is why it didn't get posted on public websites on the 20th as originally planned. The reason for posting that breakout alert was that a rare technical setup exists that actually makes the Commercials' huge short position wildly bullish.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Stock Market Bubbles Brewing in Shanghai, Tokyo, and London / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Gary_Dorsch

“There is a bubble growing. Investors should be concerned about the risks,” said Cheng Siwei, vice-chairman of China’s National People’s Congress in a January 31st interview with the Financial Times. “But in a bull market, people will invest relatively irrationally. Every investor thinks they can win. But many will end up losing. But that is their risk and their choice,” Cheng warned.

In what might develop into the third biggest stock market bubble in history, ranked alongside Japan’s Nikkei-225 of 1986-89, and the Nasdaq’s 1999-2000 bull run, the Shanghai Composite “A” share Index, restricted mainly to Chinese nationals, has posted a 140% gain over the past 12-months, after soaring 46% in the fourth-quarter of 2006 alone. And without deliberate market intervention, the A-share market could inflate into a Nasdaq-like bubble.

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InvestorEducation

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Trading - Timing The Entry into a Market Position / InvestorEducation / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Hans_Wagner

Timing the Entry sets the parameters to buy the potential high profit stocks that have been identified. The objective is to identify the rules that will be used to enter a buy (or short), the exit target and the trailing stop. Technical analysis provides the best way to effectively plan the trade. Many people believe that being able to properly read and interpret a chart leads to profitable trades. Unfortunately, this is not true. Reading a chart to identify the existing patters, trends and interpreting the indicators only provides the framework for executing a trade. The secret is to identify the characteristics on the chart that when realized will yield an optimal trade opportunity. You are preparing to commitment your hard earned money, so you want to be as sure as possible that the trade criteria is the best it can be.

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Commodities

Monday, February 19, 2007

Coffee Futures Bull Market Opportunity Brewing / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst other commodity markets have recently raced a head, Coffee has been marking time. What we now need to know is whether the time is now near for Coffee to to shift gears and start its own bull run to much higher prices. Most recent price action has taken coffee down from 130 to 113 (March 07), with the immediate trend still down, giving us the opportunity to enter at the earliest price trigger coming off of a low.

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Commodities

Monday, February 19, 2007

Gold Analysis : The Best Risk/Reward Trade Available / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

“The expectation therefore is that the action of a single day will not to buck the larger trend, which is for yields to continue their move lower.”

For the last two weeks, this update has been alerting readers to the fact the U.S. economy needs lower interest rates, in the form of bond yields, and household liquidity, in the form of a higher stock market. The effects of these moves would be to encourage buyers' working off the housing supply glut and to save the mortgage lending industry from collapse. It must be simply a coincidence that the pace of both these trends, lower yields and higher stocks, accelerated last Wednesday on Chairman Bernanke's testimony.

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Commodities

Sunday, February 18, 2007

Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 18th Feb 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Merv_Burak

Butting heads with that $675 resistance level gold just couldn't get enough steam to get anywhere this past week. Maybe this coming week – or maybe not.

GOLD : LONG TERM On the long term P&F chart we are now at that $675 resistance level previously mentioned. Depending upon which long term chart one uses ($10 or $15 units) will depend upon what level would be considered the break-out. Since I have switched over to the $15 unit charts some time back, due to the high price level of the activity, that break-out would be on a move to the $690 level. As mentioned last week we do have a bullish upside break by gold's lower resistance break so one would be a cautious long term bull based upon that but still waiting for the next confirmation break.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 17, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 17th Feb 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is: Several of the major averages including the Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA), S&P mid cap (MID) and Russell 2000 (R2K) closed at their all time highs on Friday. New highs across the capitalization spectrum suggest there is more to come.

Short Term
Two weeks ago the MID finished a run of 10 consecutive up days. Then it fell for 2 days and resumed its upward run for another 4 consecutive days ending Friday.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Gold is looking overbought in the short-term and could correct lower to $630 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

We have seen the breakout predicted in the last Gold Market update, although so far subsequent gains have been modest as gold continues to be restrained by the strong resistance level shown on the 1-year chart in the $655 - $680 zone. Although we have seen limited gains so far following this breakout, it was nevertheless an important technical development that is viewed as marking the start of a major uptrend which is still in its infancy.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Silver showing signs of weakness as failing to breakout higher / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

Silver is believed to be slowly limbering up to take out the resistance at and towards last year's highs, an event that can be expected to lead to a major advance. However, shorter-term the picture is not so bright.

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Currencies

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Dollar Requires Valentines Lift from Bernanke - Currencies Analysis / Currencies / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Ashraf_Laidi

The dollar selloff of the past 2 days is reaching key support levels, which would only stabilize from an upbeat testimony by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

We expect Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to offer a vital dose of support for the dollar as his message should not only reiterate the upbeat tone of the last FOMC statement, but also reflect the particularly hawkish remarks from Fed officials last Friday.

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Commodities

Monday, February 12, 2007

Crude Oil - Will it go down to $40 or up to $100 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Hans_Wagner

If you knew the answer to this one, you could make a lot of money and beat the market . So let's take a look at the issues and see what can be determined. First, demand is going to increase over time as an energy-hungry developing world needs more and more energy. Take a look at this chart from the Bank Credit Analyst showing the percentage of global oil consumption that comes from China and India. It is going from the lower left to the upper right, and only slowed during the slowdown in global growth around 2001.

Global Oil consumption, china and india

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 11, 2007

Stock & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - 11th February 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

Going into the week, members had the benefit of the 1458 target on the S&P futures that I mentioned in the Forum and reiterated several times at the start of the week. As you might recall, the February 4th update stated:

“I think this is the time the market makes or breaks. I do think the market has a great chance of turning before the target of SPX 1472 I have. As it was difficult to share the opinion of a huge rally in the summer, its hard here to express a bit of danger as the markets advance each and every day. I see next week as a slight advance on Monday and then possible a boring consolidation before another advance that marks a turn. Do we have confirmation that this week was it. No way, but I do have enough evidence that if things remain as they are, we will rollover soon. That said, you can make the case that if all is peaceful next week, we could doll up a few markets and give them their finishing touches.”

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Commodities

Sunday, February 11, 2007

Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 11th Feb 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Merv_Burak

Do you believe the world wide attention the death of Anna Nicole has been receiving? No wonder gold was moving higher and higher almost every day this week.

GOLD : LONG TERM
The long term prognosis is looking better and better every day, except for momentum. It is still under performing the price move but IS moving higher. While the price is just about ready to breach its $677.50 resistance from the June/July rally high, momentum is still some distance below its high level. Volume, however, is ready to move into new all time highs although the daily action still leaves a lot to be desired. The price continues above its moving average line and although the line is only slightly in the positive direction it is turning more so.

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Commodities

Saturday, February 10, 2007

Gold Breakout and HUI Index Set to Advance to between 700 - 900 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

The title of this article was designed to get you to click on it and open it, and now that you're here, you should stick around because you are probably going to find this interesting.

In this game the most important things to observe are often the simplest - many people get lost in a quicksand of detail so that they can't see the woods for the trees, and thus end up losing sight of the big picture. So today we are going to keep it simple and to the point, which is easy because the market itself is giving us some very clear indications.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 10, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 10th Feb 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is: Same as last week, most of the major indices hit new multiyear or all time highs.

Short Term
Last week I discussed the implications of the Russell 2000 (R2K) moving up for 6 consecutive days. On Thursday last week the S&P mid cap index (MID) completed a run of 10 consecutive up days, an occurrence seen only twice in the past 15 years

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InvestorEducation

Thursday, February 08, 2007

New Technical Indicator that Times Bull Market Peaks in Gold and Silver / InvestorEducation / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Roland_Watson

There is one question above all others that is on the minds of gold and silver investors. It can be expressed in two ways.

The first is "At what price will the gold and silver bull market end?"

The second is similar "At what date will the gold and silver bull market end?"

The chief end of both questions is the same, getting out with maximum profits for the holder of gold and silver be it in bullion, ETF or mining stock form.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Gold Price Manipulation - Does it Matter ? / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

There has been more talk in recent weeks on the subject of gold price manipulation. The purpose of this article is not to attempt to go into the details of whether or not there is manipulation, or how much there is, or who is doing it or why, because all of this is has been raked over by other writers in considerable detail. The purpose of this article is to examine what difference it makes to us as investors and traders, and how best to live with it.

The first point to make clear is that to whatever degree there is gold price manipulation/suppression, there is nothing much the ordinary investor can do about it - you are going to have to live with it, like taxation - so there's no point in losing any sleep over it.

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Currencies

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Rising Crude Oil and G7: Yen Strength or US Dollar Weakness ? / Currencies / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Ashraf_Laidi

The dollar's technical outlook has taken a turn to the worse on a combination of aggressive pre-G7 currency talk favoring yen stability and an 18% increase in oil prices over the past 3 weeks.

Oil Rebound as Fast as Past Decline
An 18% rise over a 3-week period is as significant as a 20% decrease over a 4-week period (oil's decline from mid December to mid January), but oil's rebound has not yet made it to the front pages as it is "only" at 4 week highs, which is not as "spectacular" as 18-month lows - seen in mid January. But the magnitude of the current rebound is comparable to the prior declines. The significance of the recent oil increase is such that US consumers may start to struggle in spending their way to an economic soft landing and keeping intact the Goldilocks scenario (neither too hot nor too cold). A prolonged slowdown in US housing would raise risks of a double whammy for the US economy, especially at a time, when US manufacturing deepens in a recession.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Market Wrap - Summary All Markets / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

Interest rates are still key, as they affect the bond market, the mortgage market, and the housing market; which in turn affects many peripheral markets such as lumber, copper, furniture, and appliances to name but a few.

Interest rates had been on the rise but began to drop back this week. That is good news for all those that own mortgages - although we did see that mortgages still went up, not down. Hopefully the lesser rates will filter down to the mortgage markets - if the bankers want to play nice, which is a very cold altar to place one's faith in.

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Companies

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Market Wrap - Gold & Silver Stocks / Companies / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

The HUI Index lost 0.21 cents for the week, closing out at $332.32. During the week it had been as high as $343.56 and as low as $324.38. Another false break out occurred as will be shown on the chart below.

The same caveats apply here as they did to gold. Working off overhead supply takes time. A last correction/consolidation may take place before the new bull market phase begins in earnest. The above $324.38 is our first line of support.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Market Wrap - Commodities, Gold and Silver / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

For the week, the CRB index gained 1.8% - still down just under 2% for the year. However, pay heed to the second chart below that paints a whole different picture regarding commodities.

Wheat prices fell 0.5%, the fifth decline in six weeks. However, do not be mislead, as the price of wheat was up 48% last year, reaching a 10 year high of $5.57 in October. We view this as just the beginning of a long term trend.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Market Wrap - Oil & Energy / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

Crude Oil rose to $59 a barrel based on increased demand due to cold weather finally settling in across most of the nation. In many areas the temperature was colder than normal.

Prior to this snap of cold weather, the winter season has been one of the mildest on record. OPEC also plans on cutting production, which coupled with increased demand results in higher prices.

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Currencies

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Market Wrap - US Dollar / Currencies / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

The US Dollar was up versus the Euro and Yen last week, supposedly based on the speculation that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates anytime soon, choosing instead to keep them steady and unchanged. The US Dollar index was down 0.4% for the week, closing out at 84.95. The British pound gained versus the dollar based on speculation that the Bank of England will raise interest rates to slow the economy down, which is expanding at a faster pace then the BOE feels safe with regarding inflationary pressures.

The Yen Carry Trade is alive and well, at least for the moment. The market is short yen meaning it is betting it will fall. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported that net shorts rose to a record 173,005 from the prior record of 164,860 the week before.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Market Wrap - US Bond Market & Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

Two year Treasury yields lost 5 bps to close at 4.93%. Both the five and ten year Treasury yields fell 5 bps to 4.82%. Long-bond yields were also down 5 bps to 4.92%. The spread between the two year and the ten year closed the week inverted 11 basis points.

The Fed still has its coveted inverted yield curve - where short term rates are higher then long term rates. All inverted yield curves of the past have always been followed by a recession in the economy. Caveat Emptor.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Market Wrap - US Economy and Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

The Labor Department reported an increase of 111,000 additional workers to the employment numbers. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%. Factory orders and consumer confidence increased. Initially the dollar was sold and interest rates rose. After second thoughts, investors bought the dollar and interest rates fell.

The Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment rose to 96.9 in January, from 91.7 in December. The Commerce Department reported that factory orders increased 2.4% in December, twice the 1.2% gain in November. The Labor Department reported that worker's average hourly earnings rose 3 cents, or 0.2%, after increasing 0.4% the previous month.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 05, 2007

UK Interest Rates could Rise in February / Interest-Rates / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Word is out on the street that another interest rate hike could occur in a matter of days, barely weeks after the last rate rise.The source of recent speculation is a result of research by BDO Stoy Hayword which suggests the increase in inflation pressures may force the Bank of England to raise interest rates later this week.

The Market Oracle has been forecasting a target for UK interest rates of 5.75% by Late 2007 for sometime (UK Interest Rates could rise to 5.75% in 2007 7th Nov 06), with our forecast for early 2007 of between 5.25% to 5.5% (Interest rate trend uptrend accelerates 11th August 06) virtually spot on. However a rate rise to 5.50% in February would imply the possibility of our target of 5.75% could now be exceeded.

So what is the real chance for another interest rate rise in February ?

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Commodities

Monday, February 05, 2007

Gold and Silver Forecast to Break Higher / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

Regular readers know last week's update was about the forces moving the precious metals markets and what we could expect to see based on how those forces were likely to interact. We particularly discussed the correlation between stocks and gold, that the stronger economy had been producing a perception of greater demand with more acute inflation expectations, both of which were bullish for the metals. We'd noted previously that this relationship could also be seen with bond yields, which also tend to move upward as stocks and metals appreciate in value. This first chart shows all three asset classes since January 3rd.

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Commodities

Monday, February 05, 2007

Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - Possibility of Breakout Failure / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Merv_Burak

GOLDIt was looking good there for a while but then along came Friday. Why always Friday? Maybe it just seems like sharp moves occur on Friday's. Maybe speculators do not wish to hold contracts over the week-end.


LONG TERM Well, the first thing is the long term P&F chart (see chart in last week's commentary). Thursday's action broke that initial resistance at $645 with a move to $660 to provide a bullish signal. The swift reversal on Friday, however, puts that break-out in doubt. As mentioned last week I think it's best to wait for a move to $690 which would break through the next serious barrier. That would then set up a stronger move that would take us through to new bull market highs and then through the 1980 rally high of $748. After that, the 1980 all time high of $894. But let's take it one step at a time.


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Commodities

Sunday, February 04, 2007

Stocks & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - 4th Feb 07 - Mission Accomplished / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

It wasn't easy to present yet another update last week that anticipated additional highs in the face of an outside down week, which has a great track record of being correct. The January 28 th update stated:

“Could the reversal looking pattern only be part of a larger correction that's stalling for time? When I look over many of my charts, the answer that pops out is yes. So, even though I can label a top is in, I won't do it yet for several reasons. The sentiment on that drop wasn't what I wanted to see and, believe it or not, I have two very valid setups for additional highs. Another huge leg up isn't in the cards, but I'm not about to be short prematurely into the squeeze of all squeezes and get taken out of the position minutes before it turns.”

Once again, the market had most traders convinced last week the top was in only to leave them on the sidelines or, worse, short. It's amazing the market simply won't pull back and continues to grind upward leaving no one a chance to get in cheap.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 04, 2007

Dow Transports Confirms the Stocks Bull Market - Dow Theory works ! / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

The first week of February was a memorable one for the stock market in many ways. From seeing the President make a rare appearance on the exchange floor of the NYSE, to the all-time high in the Dow Industrial index, to the breakouts in the small cap and mid cap sectors. But most memorable from a technical standpoint was the new all-time high in the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA). That will be the focus of this commentary.

Every one of the eight major sectors that are part of the Group Movement Index (GMI) closed higher for the week ending Feb. 2, putting the GMI reading at a new high for the year as well as a 52-week high. The GMI is what is used to measure the strength or weakness behind the broad market, and it's arguably the simplest definition of whether stocks are in a bull market or a bear market.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 03, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 3rd Feb 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is:
Last week most of the major indices hit new multiyear or all time highs.

Short Term
In April 2004 the Russell 2000 (R2K) topped after moving upward for 8 consecutive days. After that high it fell 14.7% to its August 13 low. That is the only example I would find where the index made a significant top concluding with 6 or more consecutive up days. On average the R2K moves upward for 6 or more consecutive days about twice a year and those moves are usually in the midst of a larger upward move.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 01, 2007

Elliott Wave Analysis of the 1929 Crash Compared with where China is Today / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Paul_Lamont

When assets are priced with record levels of optimism, reality will disappoint. As Dr. Marc Faber said recently "the art dealers are bullish on art, the commodity traders bullish on commodities, the real estate guys bullish on real estate, the stock traders bullish on stocks, everybody has something to buy." Therefore the wise contrarian strategy is interest-bearing cash. Over the next few years, most assets will fall in value as risk returns to the market and leverage is unwound. In the future, credit will be extended with greater caution.

"A bank is a place where they lend you an umbrella in fair weather and ask for it back when it begins to rain." - Robert Frost

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Market Analysis - Stocks, Bonds & Commodities / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

Economy
The Commerce Department reported sales of new homes were up 4.8% to an annual pace of 1.12 million units. New orders for durable goods gained 3.1%. Durable goods for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft, was up 2.4%. Spending on equipment and software increased at an annual rate of 7.7% in the third quarter, after a 1.4% decrease in the prior quarter. Orders for commercial aircraft increased 27% after rising 3.8% in November. Orders excluding military equipment rose 3.9% last month.

The economy expanded at a 2% annual pace in the third quarter, the slowest rate so far reported. Motor vehicle and parts bookings jumped 6.8% in December - not an insignificant amount. Orders for machinery rose 5%, largely attributed to an increased demand for communications equipment. Existing Homes sales for 2006 were down 8.4% from 2005 levels of 6.648 million. And while 2006 was the weakest year of sales since 2003's 6.175 million, keep in mind that existing home sales averaged 3.99 million units annually during the nineties.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - Caution ! / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Merv_Burak

Only two up days with three down days but still ending on the plus side. Gold is up against a strong resistance barrier. Will it break through? Ah! The mysteries of life.

GOLD - LONG TERM

GOLD - LONG TERM P&F Chart

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

ELLIOTT WAVE Analysis of Gold and HUI - Triangle Pattern / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dan_Stinson

Gold is in a triangle pattern and it currently appears to have started wave e down. We should see minor downside for the wave e count, before a reversal and subsequent breakout to the upside. The downside could complete as 3 waves or as 5 waves with further sideways action in wave e towards the apex of the triangle. A break below the lower trendline and the wave c low in the triangle would be short term bearish indicating further downside before a substantial move higher. A break above the wave b high before a pullback could indicate 2 possible scenarios.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 28, 2007

Stocks & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - 28th Jan 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

What a week! I'm going to do less writing than usual and focus more on technical analysis, which is, after all, how we trade. But, looking back over the last update, it's impressive that the market managed to make it all happen so quickly. The Jan 21st update said:

Friday's advance on the S&P will probably have early next week taking off to new highs, where we have the potential of creating a reversal pattern. Otherwise, the S&P's are looking to buy time into either the end of the month, or possibly around February 8. If so, we might trade sideways to down until we approach those dates. I'd rather have a pop to short as I patiently watch to see if my NYSE target mentioned months ago reaches perfection.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 28, 2007

Gold Market sectorwide Buy Alert / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

Gold is looking technically stronger than it has done for the past 16 months. It would have escaped the notice of many that it broke out last week from a little-known technical pattern known as 3-arc Fan Correction. This pattern was not detected earlier because it is rather rare, and instead attempts were made to define the action in gold since last May as some kind of triangle, which could, of course, be bearish. However, a 3-arc Fan was clearly identified in the Streettracks chart last week on www.clivemaund.com, prompting a re-examination of the gold chart, whereupon it became evident that a similar pattern exists in gold. This is very important, because it largely sweeps away lingering doubts about where gold is headed. This is because these patterns are very bullish, and seldom break down.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 27, 2007

Precious Metals Stocks update Gold, Silver : Follow the Money / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

As we mentioned last week, there are numerous factors weighing on the spot price of precious metals and this fact can make it challenging from week to week to say exactly which forces will predominate and determine the next direction the market will take. The forces include sentiment, interest rates, speculative demand, but, of course, the bottom line is money. If you can follow the money, understanding where it's moving and why, then you'll know what's driving the metals markets. The operative words over the last two weeks have been:

"In the short term, if next week's data continue to nourish the sentiment that the economy has rounded the bottom, a veritable soft landing, then metals have a realistic shot at overtaking resistance. The hotter the economy appears to become, the more willingness investors should have to get back into mining stocks and the greater the inflation concerns will become."

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 27, 2007

A look at the short-term inflationary trends in Gold and Oil stocks / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

In the commentary of early January, I made a case for the oil and gas stocks finding support above their 200-day moving averages and making a technical rally based on a number of momentum signals, particularly in the Amex Natural Gas Index (XNG). That forecast has since materialized and we have the beginnings of a rally in the natural resources sector. The question now becomes one of how much more upside potential remains for the leading natural resource stocks; that question we'll take up in this commentary.

Donald Rowe of the Wall Street Digest points out, “ Historically, numerous corporations try to raise prices during the month of January in order to improve margins. Consequently, prices tend to rise-- even spike up--in January. However, many of these January price increases are rolled back in February or March when they meet resistance from customers or when market share declines. Consequently, inflation is always a problem every January.”

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 27, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report 27th Jan 2007 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is:
Since 1887 (120 years) the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been up 70% of the time in the coming week (the last 3 trading days of January and the first 2 days of February) during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle (next week).

Short Term
Most of the short term indicators are at or near neutral and showing a very modest positive bias. I cannot draw conclusions from them.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Gold Market Update - Upside breakout likely - Options straddle opportunity / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

Subtle but important changes in recent days have substantially increased the chances of upside breakouts by gold and silver. The situation is now very finely balanced with an army of traders either sat on the fence, or, depending on which way it breaks, on the wrong side of the trade. When it does break out - and it is beginning to look like it will be to the upside, there will be a stampede and an upside breakout from here could thus easily involve a $20 - $30 up day for gold.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 21, 2007

Gold Bull Market set to resume / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Gold has been in a corrective pattern since the May 2006 peak, attempting to build a base in anticipation of the resumption of the bull market. Now finally, Gold appears ready to resume the up trend with clear technical indicators signaling a breakout is imminent.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 21, 2007

Stock & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave update - Play It Again, Sam ! / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

The Jan 14th update stated:

So, what's next? NOW we are finally getting to where I can become comfortable looking for the market to complete my count. I may have started to sound like a broken record, saying, “I still didn't see confirmation of a top and that I needed another new high”. But it's the market's that's been playing this same old sideways tune.

Sentiment indicators have tried to provide sell signals intraday but we haven't closed into those levels. Indicators are diverged, but this recent rally has kept them from triggering sell signals. With that said, the good news is that if I do get the signals any time soon, I can finally be comfortable labeling a chart complete, knowing it's correct.

Well, nothing has changed. I still don't have a sell signal and I don't gauge sentiment at the end of an options expiry week. We opened the week on the S&P trying to poke our heads to higher levels only to find sellers out playing whack-a-mole. We tried on Tuesday, and then again on Wednesday only to selloff into Thursday. Basically, the market's still playing the same sideways tune.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 20, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 20th Jan 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is: Since 1953 the S&P 500 (SPX) has been down only once during the week following the 3rd Friday in January during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle (next week).

Short Term
The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in magenta and an indicator showing momentum of NASDAQ downside volume in green. The indicator is plotted on an inverted Y axis decreasing downside volume moves the indicator upward. During the rally that began last summer prices have moved upward most quickly when the indicator was also moving upward.

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Commodities

Friday, January 19, 2007

Commodity Markets Strategic Review - Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Copper / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

As an investor, what matters to you more than anything, what is of paramount importance, is determining whether what you have invested in, or are thinking of investing in, is going to go up, down or sideways. If you are long you want the market to go up, if you are short you want it to go down, and if you have written both Call and Put options, you want it to move sideways. All consideration of fundamentals is subordinate to this Prime Objective.

Gold, Silver and Precious Metals stocks have been trading sideways for about 9 months now, following their strong advance to the April - May peak of last year, with many smaller stocks having slithered down a "slope of hope" to plumb low levels in the recent past. Understandably, many investors in the sector are growing increasingly fed up and frustrated with this situation, especially as every time the sector looks set to break higher it has suffered a smackdown. The purpose of this essay is to assess the current situation and to discuss effective tactics for dealing with it.

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Commodities

Friday, January 19, 2007

Silver rally expected to peak in the near term for a possible shorting opportunity / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

This Silver Market update will be truncated relative to the Gold Market update, as many of the arguments set out in that update apply equally well to silver. Silver suffered a similar New Year smack down to gold, broke down from a similar intermediate Head-and-Shoulders top area, and broke back above the "neckline" of the pattern on Friday, which is as a result also close to aborting.

The strength of the move on Friday indicates that we should see follow through next week, but that the advance will stall out either at the resistance in the $13.25 area, or possibly at the resistance zone in the $13.75 - $15.20 area. At this point, depending on conditions prevailing at the time, we will consider shorting it with a fairly close overhead stop.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Gold Rally could run out of steam in the near term / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

We have seen the severe smackdown anticipated in the last Gold Market update, although it did first manage to trip our overhead stops by a whisker before plummeting. This resulted in a breakdown from the intermediate Head-and-Shoulders top area shown on the 6-month chart. On Friday, however, it surged back above the "neckline' of this pattern, which is close to aborting. Although Friday's rally was certainly impressive, we are definitely not out of the woods yet, as will be readily apparent when we look at the 6-year gold chart.

The strength of the move on Friday implies that we will see follow through over the next week or so, with a few down days thrown in. However the advance is likely to be capped once it reaches the $645 - $655 area, where there is substantial resistance - if it succeeds in getting that far. We will then need to review it in the light of what is going on in the T-bill and T-bond market and the dollar, with a view to possibly shorting it again.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Stock Market and Gold Wrap Up for 2006 and prospects for 2007 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Aden_Forecast

Most of the markets moved higher in 2006, driven by lots of liquidity. Stocks, commodities, precious metals and currencies... they all rose. Let's now see how they ended the year...

LARGE CAPS: THE BEST SECTOR
As the year drew to a close, the Dow Industrials hit new record highs and the S&P500 ended up gaining 11.78% in 2006. The Dow Transportations rose 8.59% while the Utilities gained 10.44%. The least impressive index was Nasdaq, which was up 7.65%, but the big stock winner was the Dow Industrials. It rose an impressive 14.90%.

Some of the foreign emerging markets did much better than the U.S. and other major international stock markets. Among the best were Mexico, Hong Kong and Singapore, which gained on average 34.5%.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 18, 2007

HUI Gold bugs Index and Crude Oil Analysis - Extreme Fear / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

Stockmarket trading has certain similarities with driving a car. As a commuter you may have driven the same route a thousand times to get to work, but every day is a new day and you always have to be ready for the unexpected, such as a child running out in front of you or someone suddenly cutting you up in heavy traffic.

We have traded these markets on www.clivemaund.com successfully over the past several weeks, avoiding heavy losses and making money in Put options in stocks such as Newmont Mining, and, just a few days back, or even a day or two ago, it looked like the drop would continue. But, like the first breath of wind before a storm, evidence has begun to appear that a possibly dramatic reversal to the upside may be close at hand.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Silver Elliott Wave analysis & forecast / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Robert_Watson

The silver market continues to move in a state of flux as the metal struggles to free itself from its current period of price correction. However, one must not take this to be a sign of overall weakness in the silver bull market but rather a normal adjustment to the recent $15 highs that caused silver to race too far ahead of its normative indicators. In terms of Elliott Wave analysis, the most probable picture to me is laid out below.
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Currencies

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Currency Forecasts - Effects of Supplying Oil and Military Troops / Currencies / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Ashraf_Laidi

The 17% decline in oil prices so far this year has recalibrated the FX equation in so far as bolstering expectations of a US consumer-led stability to act as a stabilizer to housing's downside risks. This has considerably diminished chances of a March Fed cut and manifested itself across European and Asian currencies. The role of oil's rebound has been such that it took center stage in FX markets, shadowing a string of positive economic data from the Eurozone and the UK. Aside from freeing US consumers' wallets, falling oil prices have reduced the Sep-Nov trade deficit by over 17%, which is likely to contribute as much as 0.7% to Q4 GDP.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 13, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 13th Jan 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is:
• Many of the major indices closed at or near multiyear or all time highs on Friday.

Short Term
Several of the major indices including the NASDAQ composite (OTC), S&P Mid cap, Russell 2000 (R2K) and Wilshire 5000 were up every day last week. This is a sign of strength that does not occur very often, but, it is also an overbought indication.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 06, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 6th Jan 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is:
• There have been very few new lows on either the NYSE or NASDAQ.

Short Term
Changing volume patterns offer a short term view of what is happening in the market. Unfortunately, volume indicators are easily skewed by seasonal factors.

The chart below covers the last 100 trading days showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in magenta and momentum of NASDAQ downside volume (OTC DV) in green. OTC DV is plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing downside volume moves the indicator upward (up is good).

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Commodities

Thursday, January 04, 2007

Crude Oil tumbles through support levels, is the bull market over ? / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Crude oil plunges through key support levels built during the recent consolidation area of 56 to 63.

Crude Oil had been in an up trend since start of 2002, which had taken the price from just over $15 to just shy of $80 going into July 2006. Now following a failed attempt to resume the up trend, crude is threatening to end the bull market by yesterdays price action in the face of a much milder than expected US winter.

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Currencies

Thursday, January 04, 2007

British Pound (GBP) Dollar currency forecast and trade point 4-Jan-07 / Currencies / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The British Pound (GBP) rallied strongly into early December to just below 1.99, and within touching distance of £/$2.00. The sideways trend which had the appearance of being corrective in the run up to another assault higher, which started as we came into the New Year. That assault failed at 1.9750, and changes the picture as the Pound drifts down to its current level of 1.9511
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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 31, 2006

US Interest Rates & Bond Market forecast for 2007 / Interest-Rates / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US Bond market had a volatile year, as the market wrestled with a resurgence in inflation during the first half of the year, and then rallied in the 2nd half on a weakening economy and speculations that US interest rates had or were near their peak.

The Fundamental Economic Picture - The US economy ends 2006, with slowing economic growth, a weak housing market, rising inflation and a declining dollar. The economic picture this paints both call for higher and lower interest rates. Where we need to look at for further clues is to the Fed. What would the Fed do ?, More importantly what has the Fed done in the past. The answer to this is clear - Cut interest rates and print money to ignite economic growth. Thus, even with rising inflation, and a falling dollar, the Federal reserve is likely to focus more on attempting to boost a slowing economy by cutting US interest rates as the danger is clear that another leg lower in the US real estate market on the back of record amounts of mortgage debt could tip the US into recession during 2007. That's the fundamental picture.

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Housing-Market

Sunday, December 31, 2006

UK Housing market forecast for 2007 / Housing-Market / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Early in 2006 we reiterated the overbought state of the UK housing market and how it was ripe for a decline. But the decline failed to materialise, as an early slowdown failed to go negative, with the market starting to trend higher again later in the year. Despite two rate rises, the housing growth has accelerated going into the end of 2006 to an annualised rate of over 8%.

UK Housing market forecast for 2007

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 30, 2006

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 30th Dec 06 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Russell 2000 (R2K) closed at all time highs last week.

Short Term
It is difficult to make a short term technical assessment of the market at this time of the year because seasonal factors dominate.

Intermediate term
New lows begin to increase as the market approaches a significant top.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, December 29, 2006

FTSE 100 Index stock market forecast for 2007 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The FTSE ended 2006 at 6220.80, up about 11% for the year and up 90% from the 2003 low.

A recap of the FTSE trend during 2006 before the forecast for 2007 - The FTSE started 2006 at 5,618, after having already built on 2 good years so expectations were starting to slacken with many commentators suggesting that the FTSE could decline during 2006. Our forecast at the start of the year was for the FTSE 100 index to rise to 6000 by the end of 2006, so a 3% deviation from the actual year end close.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 28, 2006

Gold Forecast - Four ways to profit as gold is set to shine in 2007 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Money_and_Markets

It's been a wild year in the markets, and if recent events are any barometer, 2007 is going to be even crazier. Right off the bat, let me reaffirm my most important point: Gold is going to be the asset to own in 2007. The yellow metal posted an impressive return in 2006 — almost 22% for spot gold through yesterday. But I consider that move to be just the prelude to much higher levels. Indeed, gold's action so far is just an indicator of things to come ... rising inflation ... a falling dollar ... and insurmountable debts in Washington.

More on that in a moment. First, let me take you back in time ...

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Emerging Markets outlook for 2007 - India, China, Russia, Eastern Europe and Brazil / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Emerging markets have by and large boomed during 2007. With indices such as India's Sensex up more than 50% on the year, though the year ends on a cautionary note ,given the recent actions by Thailand's regime that sent their stock market reeling. So even though the long-term fundamentals are still strong for India, China, Russia, Brazil etc, the first half of 2007 could become a corrective period for the emerging markets, as they end the year on high valuations and growth expectations. Many investors have only recently started to enter these markets, and they may be disappointed by performances during the first half of 2007. The key here is to invest for the long-term growth so well beyond 2007.

Emerging Markets forecast for 2007 - India, China, Russia, Eastern Europe and Brazil

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Dow Jones Stock Market forecast for 2007 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dow Jones forecast for 2007 - If you have followed my last article on the Dow Jones (17th December 06), you will be aware that I am expecting a sharp drop in the stock markets starting January 2007. As the year draws to an end, I am able to further clarify the scenario that the Dow Jones is expected to play out during 2007.

The rally to new highs in the Dow jones and new five year highs in other indices has not been followed by confirmation in the Dow Transports, whilst the rallies have also been accompanied by record low VIX readings, suggesting investor complacency.

Now in the run upto the new year, the media seems to be filling up with stories of how well the stock markets are expected to perform during 2007. Supporting evidence such as soft landing of the US economy, and that 2007 is expected to be the strongest in the presidential cycle. Unfortunately as my article of 22nd October pointed out, the Dow Jones has decided to make ADJUSTMENTS to the presidential cycle, which has significantly negated its overall effect in terms of trend. We basically have enjoyed much of the expected PLUS that's expected during 2007 already in the latter part of 2006 !, So this implies a much weaker 2007.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

UK Interest Rate forecast for 2007 - Bank of England to do battle with inflation / Interest-Rates / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK Interest rates end 2006 at 5%, up 0.5% on the years low of 4.5%, as the bank of England strives to bring inflation back under control. Though the bank increasingly seems to be fighting a losing battle against a soaring money supply of over 14% ! stoking the fires of inflation as the RPI hits 3.7% and the CPI 2.7% the highest levels since 1993 !

With the economy near full employment, the inflation figures are set to wage costs soaring feeding into a wage price spiral. which is expected to feed through into even higher inflation during 2007. The middle class already are experiencing inflation closer to 6% than the 2.7% that the CPI represents.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 23, 2006

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 100 (OEX) closed at all time highs last Tuesday.

Short Term
During an up market the major indices seldom move downward for more than 3 consecutive days.

The chart below shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and an indicator showing the percentage of the last 3 trading days that have been up. The indicator reaches the top of the screen when there have been 3 consecutive up days and it reaches the bottom of the screen when their have been 3 consecutive down days. The chart covers the past 6 months and has vertical dashed lines drawn on the 1st trading day of each month. The SPX was down the last 3 trading days of last week. The last time that happened was in early November which, like last week, was also a seasonally strong period.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 18, 2006

Last Warning! Three-Pronged Collapse ... Stocks, Bonds and Real Estate / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Money_and_Markets

Today I want to give you one final warning on the crisis I see coming. I've told you some of this before, but I feel it's so important that it needs to be repeated one last time. Gold's rally back over $600, and recently to more than $640 an ounce, is telling us — in no uncertain terms — that a financial crisis of major proportions is about to strike.

The dollar is telling us the same thing — that the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. Government is plunging ... that all is not well. Just look at how the dollar has been falling against many of the world's currencies ...

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 16, 2006

The VIX forecasts a sharp drop in Share prices in January 2007 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Firstly What is the VIX ? This is an index of implied volatility of the Chicago Board Options on the S&P 500 stock index, The exchange calculates the implied volatility of eight at-the-money or near-the-money strikes (both puts and calls) with a weighted average time to maturity of 30 days. Basically the VIX is a measure of fear in the market. It rises when investors are fearful, as more options are bought, and falls when investors feel less fearful, so buy less options to manage their stock market risk.
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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 16, 2006

Weekly Stock Market Technical Report / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at another all time high last week while the Wilshire 5000 and S&P 500 (SPX) hit a multi year highs.

Short Term
Momentum of downside volume is an indicator that works pretty well from time to time. The chart below is an update from last week covering the past 6 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in magenta and momentum of NASDAQ downside volume in green. Dashed vertical grey lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month. The indicator has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so increasing downside volume pushes the indicator downward (up is good).

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Commodities

Friday, December 15, 2006

Six critical market forecasts for 2007 ! / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Money_and_Markets

With the new year just about two weeks away, I think now is a good time to take stock of where we've been, where we are, and where the markets are going next year. Despite recent gyrations, especially in natural resources prices, the positions in my Real Wealth Report continue to pay off handsomely overall. And the best news is that I expect greater gains next year! Reason: All my models point to 2007 as the point in time when all the powerful forces I've been telling you about converge into some major explosions! So, without further ado, here are my six forecasts for next year ...
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Commodities

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Crude Oil dips as it attempts to make a base above $56 before rallying / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Crude oil prices fell as mild weather countered OPEC's announcement that it will cut production. Crude Oil continues to build a base between 58 and 62, above the support zone of $56, in prelude to an uptrend after the sell off into October that took crude oil to technically very over sold state.

Crude Oil dips as it attempts to make a base above $56 before rallying

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, November 11, 2006

FTSE100 and Dow Jones show signs of having Peaked following US Elections / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US Mid-term election has come gone, with the stock markets having on cue rallied into the election, now post election the stock markets are starting to waver and could be heading for significant sell off during the traditionally strongest period for stock market gains. Many novices and professionals alike have taken the recent rally to beyond 12,000 in the Dow Jones and to above 6,200 in FTSE 100, as a sign of a Bull Market breakout and a signal to buy.

FTSE100 and Dow Jones show signs of having Peaked post US Elections

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 09, 2006

UK Interest Rates set to rise to 5.25% by March 2007 / Interest-Rates / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

After the markets digest yesterdays expected rise to 5% (the 2nd rise of 2006). It is highly probable that this is NOT the peak in interest rates, far from it, yesterdays rise confirms that the trend in interest rates is firmly higher, so we ponder when the next rise in interest rates is likely to occur, taking the Base Rate to 5.25%.

The housing market continues to accelerate, with the Halifax reporting yesterday a rise for October of 1.7% ! On top of this consumer price inflation is expected to continue rising from its current rate of 2.4% over the coming months.

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Currencies

Sunday, October 29, 2006

The US Dollar Bear Market - Is the downtrend about to resume ? / Currencies / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US Dollar (USD Index) has sold off strongly in recent weeks, does this signify a resumption of the long-term dollar bear market ?

After Bottoming in late 2004 at 80.39 , after which we have basically seen a correction against the downtrend that has taken the dollar to as high as 92.6 in late 2005, since which the trend has been down with recent sideways activity within the range of 87 to 84. With most recent action closing near the lower end of the range at 85.20

The US Dollar Bear Market - Is the downtrend about to resume ?

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Commodities

Thursday, October 26, 2006

Silver Forecast - Bullish Pennant Pattern Developing / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Silver recently followed the other commodities lower, such as gold and crude oil. But unlike gold, the price pattern is much more bullish, and resembles the Bullish Pennant, which is an strong and explosive bull pattern.

Silver Forecast - Bullish Pennant pattern Developing

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 22, 2006

US Presidential Cycle Mid-term Election and the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As the Dow Jones hits new highs above 12,000 for the first time, we take a look at what the market should be doing in terms of the long established US Presidential Cycle as we approach the Mid-Term Elections in November.

The Period November 2005 to November 2006, marks the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle, this period is typically characterised by a general decline in optimism by investors as the president and Congress begin trying to manage difficult budget related issues and generally go about the 'boring' task of running the government.

US Presidential Cycle Mid-term Election and the Stock Market

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Crude Oil is attempting to make a base above $56 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As expected Crude Oil is attempting to make a bottom after the recent sharp decline, but the quality of the bottom making process is poor, which suggests that an ensuing rally will also be poor.

Crude Oil is attempting to make a base above $56

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 16, 2006

FTSE 100 Closes at 5 year high of 6172.4 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The FTSE 100 built on last week's gains to close 15.1 points higher at 6172.4, its highest level since February 2001 as the market took its cue from the US and Asian stock markets.

FTSE 100 Closes at 5 year high of 6172.4

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