Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, April 13, 2009
Overbought Bear Market Rally Expected to Sell off Strongly / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Monday, April 13, 2009
Financial Markets Moving On Thin Volumes / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
With today being Easter Monday, many markets across the world are closed. However the US is open, as well as the FX markets. The volume will be very thin… and that could lead to…. wild swings! So watch out.
Hi it’s the Galloping Zebu with the Market Watch today as The Mole is on holidays for the week.
Monday, April 13, 2009
A Good Holy Week for the Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Against all expectations, stock markets around the world managed to extend their winning streak and close up for the 5th week in a row. It was a choppy week until Friday when US markets pushed hard to close at their highs of the week.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Stock Market Sentiment Indicator Looking for a Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
This is now the fourth week in a row where investor sentiment, as measured by the "Dumb Money" indicator, remains neutral. When we couple this with the fact that prices on the major stock indices remain below their 40 week moving averages, there is a high likelihood that the market will rollover in the next several weeks. I have previously discussed these observations in the article, "Investor Sentiment: Some Context".Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Global Stock Markets Extend Gains on Encouraging Earnings Pre-announcements / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Five in a row! Notwithstanding sentiment for equities waxing and waning for most of the Easter-shortened week, bourses closed strongly on Friday and capped a five-week winning streak - the first since October 2007 for the major MSCI and US stock market indices.An encouraging pre-announcement of first-quarter results by Wells Fargo (WFC) provided some confidence for the nascent earnings season and gave a healthy boost to the financial sector and overall market.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
VIX Breakdown Forecasts Stocks Bear Panic / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
VIX: Decisive breakdown validates near term buying panic hypothesis. A quick reversal above 40 needed to invalidate this view. Given the duration of the chart formation and the MA squeeze this is not likely to be a false move. Targeting 30 to coincide with SPX 1000.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Should I Believe in this Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
Answers to Your Most Pressing Questions
Good morning! As you might imagine, I'm getting a lot of questions on the markets lately at various conferences around the world so I thought I'd share a few of the most pressing with you this morning:
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Saturday, April 11, 2009
Stock Market, Where Do We Go From Here? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
A couple of days ago I made a couple of posts elsewhere about the market direction. Basically, what I said (from memory) was that the rally has topped out. At best, this rally could see 8200, but that's it. From here, the market is likely to sell off hard once the horrendous earnings come in.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Green Shoots of Stock Market and Economic Recovery? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Is That Recovery We See?
Those Wild and Crazy Analysts
The Shadow Inventory of Homes
Commercial Real Estate Starts a Long, Slow Slide
P/E Ratios Go Negative!
The Effect of Earnings Surprises
Corporate Earnings and Recovery in Recessions
The Implosion in Social Security
The market, we keep hearing and reading, is telling us that there is recovery around the corner. And pundits point to data that seems to suggest the worst is behind us. The leading economic indicators, while still down significantly, seem to be in the process of bottoming. There is a large amount of stimulus in the pipeline. Mark-to-market has been modified. Housing seems to be finding a bottom, if you look at the rise in sales from January. And so on.
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Friday, April 10, 2009
What ETFs Are Up Intermediate-Term? / Stock-Markets / Exchange Traded Funds
With all the concern about what's surging up and what's spiraling down in the short-term, what ETFs are showing strong intermediate-term trends (based on 200-day moving average)?Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 10, 2009
Stock Market Investor Sentiment Turns Bullish, Technical Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Another cover-up? The U.S. Federal Reserve has told Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and other banks to keep mum on the results of “stress tests” that will gauge their ability to weather the recession, people familiar with the matter said.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 10, 2009
Fundamental Reasons Why the Stocks Bear Market Will Return / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Sean Brodrick writes: After four weeks of gains, the market has been on a slippery slope this week. Still, we could see stocks rally though the end of this month or even longer. But the bear is out there, my friends. Here are seven reasons why …Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 10, 2009
Stocks Close the Week with a Bang / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The indices ended the week with a bang in a huge up-session Thursday ahead of the holiday weekend. The day started out with a big gap up as the indices exploded on a better-than-expected earnings pre-announcement from Wells Fargo (WFC) which sent the financial sector surging 15.5%, and which induced buying in the broader market as all three major indices were able to log their best single session percentage gain in two weeks and close at their session highs.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 09, 2009
Wells Fargo Lights a Fire Under Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
This morning, some pit traders were saying, "Not so fast, slow down ... I don't quite trust this yet".
Trust what?
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Thursday, April 09, 2009
Has the Stocks Bear Market Bottomed? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
After a long and brutal bear market, investors naturally wonder with each bear market rally whether we have reached a stock market bottom yet. Many analysts do not believe you can tell when the stock market has bottomed. Yet you still see many predictions that the market has bottomed out. Identifying whether we have reached a bottom in the stock market is important to investors who want to beat the market. It is also important to know whether we have reached a bottom in the stock market, so you can reduce your risk of entering to soon. This article provides two methods that you might find useful in identifying when the stock market has bottomed out.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 09, 2009
Postive Divergence a NON-Confirmation of Secular Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
Steven Vincent writes: The DJTA did not confirm the DJIA move below 2002 lows.Much has been written about the Dow Theory confirmation of a continuation of a perceived Secular Bear Market. When the Dow Transports Index violated its November '08 lows it is held to have confirmed the INDU's move to new bear market low and thus validated the hypothesis that the markets had entered a Secular Bear Market and that the existing downtrend would continue.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
Stock Market Indices Hold Support and Close Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The indices had 5 distinct sharp swings today, but a last-hour rally brought them back from a severe test of support, particularly on the S&P 500 at 815. When that was successful, for the 5th time in 2 days, they rallied back sharply.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
Stock Market Bounce, The Suitcase Farmer / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Last month in Panic Selling Will Lead To a Sharp Bounce , we stated: "Bearish sentiment is everywhere. Investors have finally realized what we have been discussing for the last two years. And now that we are near a temporary bottom, some investors are taking action. Unfortunately, investors are reacting to the past. They should have been in cash during the downtrend...Instead, investors should be positioning themselves for a counter trend rally: by either not selling their stocks or if they are in cash, by considering market exposure (depending on your risk tolerance)."Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
Recovery Rally in S&P 500 Short SPY ETF / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The pullback in the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) from 84.80 to 81.30 since Monday has coincided with the recovery rally in the ProShares Single Leveraged Short SPY (NYSE: SH) from 73.00 to 76.00, which also happens to have filled the down-gap left behind last Thursday. Classic technical behavior would argue for the SH now to decline after having filled the gap. If such a scenario unfolds, then the SH should press back into the 74.00-73.80 area, which would imply a climb towards 84.00 in the SPY concurrently. We maintain a long position in the SH in our model portfolio as a partial hedge against an implosion in our long positions.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
Sustainable Stocks Bull Market Not Likely / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Rather than relying on hope as the primary driver for making decisions, investors would be well served to focus on the fundamental and technical facts. An analysis of the facts leads us to conclude we are facing the following in terms of probable outcomes:
- Highest Probability – New lows / continuation of bear market.
- Moderate Probability – Cyclical bull – higher highs – followed by retests or new lows.
- Lowest Probability – A sustainable bull market (secular).