Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Stock Market Rally Built On Sand? FASB Can Help! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
It is apparent many have jumped on the "a low is in" bandwagon in recent weeks. Given the environment we are operating in (a bear market), it makes sense for us to adopt a skeptical view of the "good" news that lifted stocks in recent weeks. The rally began after Citigroup's talk of being "profitable" somehow found its way to the media on March 10, 2009. Below is a skeptical recap of some of the drivers of the impressive rally in stocks since the March 9, 2009 low.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Stock Market Slides on Negative News / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Unadulterated risk aversion returned on Monday. The day started with the news the US had rejected proposals for auto industry rehab, moved on to a vicious fall in Japanese industrial production but then the mood was briefly lifted by an increase in UK mortgage approvals. However, markets descended back into gloom as Ireland was downgraded by S&P (it was a case of when not if), then focused on the woes of the US auto industry with GM, now equated with Gimmie Money or Government Motors, and finished by looking at the ever-deeper quagmire that AIG are in. Somewhere in the middle of all this, ECB President Trichet failed to rule out buying corporate bonds, though helicopter Jean Claude doesn't sound quite right.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Is the Stock Market Rally Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The S&P500 market, along with the other equity markets, rallied sharply and created a massive gain of 20% in a matter of weeks. This is the biggest and fastest gain that these indices have seen since the 1930s.
So the question is: Is the move over, or is this the pause that refreshes?
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Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The chart below (courtesy decisionpoint.com) says it all: Based on rolling 12 months historical earnings – adjusted for Generally Accepted Accounting Principles – the Price/Earnings ratio of the Standard and Poor 500 Industrial Index in the USA was 54.51 as at March 27th 2009Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 30, 2009
Stock Markets Blue Monday / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
It was a blue Monday to start off the week, yet another negative Monday in an ongoing bear market after a 2 1/2-week rally. They gave it all back with a sharp gap down at the opening, made lower lows for the next hour or two, but bounced and held 1205, which is key 6-day support on the NDX. The NDX made lower lows but was not confirmed by the SPX, and late in the day they had a snapback, short-covering type rally.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 30, 2009
Better than Gold, My Favorite Way to Protect Against Inflation / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
The U.S. Treasury Secretary said something very disturbing this weekend. It wasn't about the bank bailout though. It wasn't about how the administration decided to draw a line between bank and automaker CEOs. It wasn't about how a concrete deal for ongoing free trade (or anything else tangible or enforceable) will be reached at the G20 meeting.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 30, 2009
The Physics of bouncing Dead Cats: Will DJIA pierce 6547 this time? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
March 14, 2009 Professor Nouriel Roubini wrote a piece: Reflections on the latest dead cat bounce or bear market sucker's rally. Well he could be right, certainly the rally looked busted on Friday and grim on Monday,. plus Tom Dryden pointed out yesterday that those bank profits were thanks to a scam; someone called it a "fraud bounce" http://seekingalpha.com/article/128390-exclusive-big-banks-recent-profitab (but aren't bank profits always thanks to some sort of scam).Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 30, 2009
Nasdaq Q's in Correction / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
As it turned out, last week the Q's (Nasdaq: QQQQ) failed to hurdle multi-month resistance at 31.40/70 and instead have embarked on a correction that so far has returned the price structure for a test of its rising 9-day AMA (now at 29.73). However, judging from the juxtaposition of the RSI and Slow Stochastics, we should expect the Q's to press lower into the 29.00 area prior to the next sustained upmove within its larger, base-like intermediate-term recovery period. Any intervening rally strength should be thwarted in the 30.20/40 area, after which the Q's likely will loop to the downside for a run at 29.00 to complete the correction off of Thursday high a 31.46.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 30, 2009
Stock Market Seasonal Inversion Patterns / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The Boys From Brazil - As postured on these pages for some time now, seasonal inversions in trading patterns of markets tend to occur in mature markets due to sentiment / structural irregularities. In the case of the US stock market, what has essentially occurred is because the general investing population has been ‘dumbed down' due to excessively good economic conditions over an extended period, along with powerful mind-numbing corporate propaganda, their aversion to risk has been dangerously tempered.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 30, 2009
Stock Market Rally has Bearish Underpinnings / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
We Are Driven - Taken for the Ride of Our Life - Over the last few weeks, the very bearish technical readings in daily sentiment have reversed. A few days ago, the US Census Bureau reported that, after sinking to the lowest level on record in January, sales of newly constructed homes rose unexpectedly in February, rebounding nearly 5%. The Commerce Department reported that durable orders jumped 3.4%. Clearly, if these numbers are not revised, which is increasingly frequent with government stats lately, they are positive signs for the beginning of a recovery. The day they were released, the Dow moved up more than 200 points its first hour of trading, and since March 9th we've seen a rally of almost 1400 points. Why be bearish now? Why not jump on board?Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 30, 2009
Short Selling Uptick Rule to Return, But Keep It Simple / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
It looks like an uptick rule for short selling will soon be back in place, but let's hope it's not the version being sought by the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange.
The two exchanges and others are pushing a proposal that is overloaded with conditions that must be met before a particular stock becomes subject to the rule, and even then the rule's reach would be limited.
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Monday, March 30, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Targets Dow 2,122 and S&P 409 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Glenn Thorpe writes: Charts of the DJIA and the SP500 provide a much clearer picture when they are inflation adjusted. This is achieved simply by dividing the index by the CPI at each date. To correlate the two indices the SP500 can be adjusted to equal the the DJIA on 3 Jan 1950, the date the SP500 was created.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 30, 2009
Stocks Bull Market 2009? / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
William Patalon III writes: Is it “Bull Market 2009?”
The answer to that question depends on whether you believe the three-week surge we've just been through is the start of a prolonged advance for U.S. stocks, or was just the kind of “ dead-cat bounce ” fake-out move that temporarily interrupts a protracted bear-market decline.
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Monday, March 30, 2009
The Stock Market is trapped within the Yin and Yang phenomenon / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
After a volatile 5 days, world stock markets just managed to close last 5 days in the black. It was a week of two halves with the good work from the start of the week being undone in the second half as traders slipped into reverse gear on Thursday and Friday. At least markets managed to hold the gains from the previous week which in the context of the bear market is no mean feat.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Global Stock Markets Extend Gains on Money Printing / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Following Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's “money printing” announcement of last week, the action stayed on Capitol Hill with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner detailing his Public Private Investment Program (PPIP) as well the initial salvo on “new rules of the game” for the US's broken system of financial regulation.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Neutral Stock Market Sentiment Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
This is the second week in a row that investor sentiment is neutral. While there is nothing unusual about this, there are two scenarios that will likely play out over the next 3 to 4 weeks. In scenario #1, the market and current intermediate term price cycle will top out when there is extreme bullish sentiment (i.e., bear signal). To attract more bulls the equity markets will need to be trading meaningfully higher. In scenario #2, the rally will likely churn along for the next four to six weeks before rolling over. In this case, dips will be bought by those late to the party; marginal new highs may be seen, but in the end, the rally will fizzle and it will be tough to make money.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Stock Market Rally Should Take a Breather Next Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The good news is: No new lows (0) were recorded on the NYSE last Thursday.
Short Term - Between the low of March 9 and the high of last Thursday:
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Saturday, March 28, 2009
Stock Market Bottom? Follow the Money / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
In my Trading Wisdom blog for subscribers on March 9, 2009, I wrote: “We are now close to the cycle turn dates in the market mentioned in the March 3, 2009 Trading Wisdom “Complex Bottoms And Stress.” Is this a bottom or the bottom?
I have no idea, and will defer to those who insist on finding bottoms in this Jennifer Lopez market. I am not wise enough or idiotic enough to do that. When it comes, it is likely to be tradeable, and not out of the realm of possibility that it could go 15-20% to the upside into beginning of April.”
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Saturday, March 28, 2009
Stocks Bulls Remain in Control / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
As the week closes, let¹s take a look at the BIG picture of the weekly cash S&P 500. Let¹s notice that earlier this week the SPX hurdled and has sustained above its nearest-term down trendline (Jan-Mar) at 795, with the price structure trading about 3% above the trendline as well as about 3% above its flattening 10-week moving average.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 27, 2009
Stock Market Expected Sell-off Arrives / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
We were expecting a down session, and we got one today. The indices gapped lower on strong negative futures. They did manage to move back off the early lows in a corrective manner to make up 50% of the losses, but when it failed to generate any upside thrust by mid-morning, they rolled over sharply to test yesterday's lows on the NDX and SPX, bounced 4-5 times in the afternoon, could not break support, but also could not get above declining tops or intraday declining moving average resistance , and rolled over in the last 10 minutes to close near the lows for the day.Read full article... Read full article...