Monday, October 28, 2024
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Hubert_Moolman
The current setup on the silver chart is a lot like the start of the silver bull market of the early 2000s. In those days silver was under $5 and considered cheap.
The current bottoming pattern from around 2014 to now is very similar to the early 2000s bottoming pattern (see the chart below).
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Monday, October 28, 2024
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush / Companies / Nvidia
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Folk need to realise that the likes of Chat GPT are mere milestones and not the final destination. As I have said before OpenAI will probably soon become a footnote in the history books. LLM's are a toy compared to what's to come but this also means all those companies going all in on LLM's won't survive or not capitalise on their investments. This is what a bubble looks like, inflated on ever higher expectations as is happening with LLM's when they are just toys. We are probably looking at the top of the LLM's bubble that will give way to the next phase in this building AI bubble where what remains at the core of the AI mega-trend is Nvidia with it's GPU's now rebranded as a family of AI processors or which more accurately should be called compute accelerators. So it was well past the time for Nvidia to become the NEW Numero Uno, with Google nudged to 2nd place in my Quantum AI tech stocks portfolio as we watch Nvidia getting rich by selling AI shovels to ALL of the tech giants. And in this case the shovels have an expiry date as they become OBSOLETE! At the maximum for most applications the life span of the infrastructure Nvidia is selling is 5 years! So not only is the Accelerated Compute market growing, all of the hardware also needs to be refreshed every 4-5 years!
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Monday, October 28, 2024
The Future of Online Casinos / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Sumeet_Manhas
The gaming industry advances quickly thanks to technology, rules, regulations, and people's demands. Due to the increasing complexity of digital platform technologies, the future of online casinos is in innovation, openness, and increased accessibility of betting services worldwide.The global online gambling market was valued at around $66.7 billion in 2020 and is predicted to reach $127.3 billion in the year 2027, growing at a CAGR of 10.9%. This growth has been occasioned by a rise in the uptake of smartphones and the Internet, which provide players with convenience in online casinos. Furthermore, using digital payment solutions such as cryptocurrencies enables users to transact safely without revealing their identity, thus building consumers' trust.
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Sunday, October 27, 2024
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This analysis Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks. was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Sunday, October 27, 2024
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! / Politics / US Presidential Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The brainwashed masses think that Donald Pump or Karamal Parris will win and save America! Despite every President in history never delivering on what they promised, all that they will do is PRINT MORE MONEY and leave office a lot richer than they were before taking office.
My view that President Pump will win has stayed constant all year regardless of what the opinion polls have stated as they whipsawed between giving Parris a Lead over Pump. Latest polls continue to give Harris a coin flip lead over Trump after taking over from lost all of his marbles Biden.
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Sunday, October 27, 2024
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's / Politics / UK Tax & Budget
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Labour government budget is set to punish those who work hard and reward those on benefits by seeking to fill a £22bn hole in the finances though not by raising income, tax or VAT. So the plan is to hit those with assets which means the Labour government is coming after many folk who would not consider themselves as being rich. perhaps all it takes is living in a property worth £1 million will put folk in the cross hairs of the Liebour government.
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Sunday, October 27, 2024
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: EWI
Hi,
Crypto volatility is ramping up! That's why we think the timing is perfect for this FREE event...
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Sunday, October 27, 2024
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Sumeet_Manhas
In The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Art of Disruption (2022), Sebastian Mallaby delves into the transformative impact of venture capital (VC) on industries worldwide.
The book examines how some of the most successful figures in the field, such as billionaire Yuri Milner, have harnessed the power law to secure massive returns. These investors have played a key role in shaping the future of technology and innovation.
Sunday, October 27, 2024
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Hubert_Moolman
Since the creation of the Federal Reserve, the Dow Jones has significantly outperformed silver.
It was only during brief periods before the 1919 and 1980 silver peaks that silver was able to outperform the Dow (see the Dow/Silver chart below).
Friday, October 11, 2024
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article is part 3 of 3 of my extensive analysis US Housing Market Analysis, House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
CONTENTS
Stock Market Trend Forecast
US Stock Market vs M2 Money Supply
AI Stocks Portfolio
Nvidia 10 for 1 Stock Split
AI Computers Hype
2024 - AI Equals Loss of Agency
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future
Consequences of AI
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts
Global Debt Bubble.
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER
US Housing Market Free Equity
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY
HOA Nightmare
Florida Hurricanes
Rentals Crisis
Who is Buying All the Houses?
Commercial Property Capitulation
US House Prices Momentum
US House Prices Trend Forecast
US Housing Market Stocks
UK General Election - 4th July 2024
Monday, September 30, 2024
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article is part 2 of 3 of my extensive analysis US Housing Market Analysis, House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Monday, September 30, 2024
Stock Market October Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market Brief - 30th Sept 2024 - 5am UK Time
S&P FOMO's to new all time high which is against the seasonal trend for a down Sept, which is good in that it is the focus of my next analysis that allows one to determine what follows an UP Sept and it's derivatives for what it means for not just the next few months but for the whole of 2925. Preliminary analysis suggests to expect a strong Q4 and a bullish 2025 which will be the third full year of the stocks bull market, yes that's right those FOMO buying to push the S&P to a new all time high are TWO YEARS LATE TO THE PARTY! The true smart money was FOMO catching those falling knives into the October 2022 lows as I stated at the time your best buys will be your most painful to do!
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Monday, September 30, 2024
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars / Politics / Protectionism
By: Richard_Mills
This week Donald Trump said he would hit John Deere with a 200% tariff if the agricultural/ construction equipment manufacturer made good on plans to move production to Mexico.
The Republican presidential nominee has frequently said he would punish automakers with a monster tariff if they move to Mexico, but according to Reuters this is the first time he has threatened John Deere.
The company earlier this year announced it was laying off hundreds of employees in the US Midwest and increasing production capacity in Mexico. The decision has upset workers and political leaders, and pushed the issue of tariffs onto the campaign agenda.
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Monday, September 30, 2024
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Gold might be losing out to stocks when it comes to headlines. But, the precious metal also just hit all-time highs and did it in style -- rocketing 35% in seven months.
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Monday, September 30, 2024
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Richard_Mills
The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points boosted US stocks and has some observers wondering whether we are gliding towards an “everything rally”.
CNN reported on Friday that investors were moving into riskier assets from bitcoin to tech stocks. The S&P 500 on Thursday marked its 42nd record-high close in 2024, while on Wednesday, the Dow chalked up its 31st record high of the year. All three major stock indexes were on pace for a positive week.
Hedge fund manager Eric Jackson of EMJ Capital told CNBC the current environment of economic growth and interest rates resembles the early days of the 1982 bull market, the first 10 months of which the stock market gained 107%.
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Monday, September 23, 2024
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
No one wants to sell their home and then be forced to re-mortgage their next property at a much higher rate, typically double their current rate i.e. 7% vs 3.5% which acts to restrict the supply of homes coming to the market and thus those that do decide to sell i.e. the mortgage free command a higher price due to lack of supply where in the US 92% of mortgages are fixed unlike the UK where even those with fixed rate mortgage are typically for less than 5 years.
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Monday, September 23, 2024
US Housing Market Free Equity / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Have you wondered how every so often a huge amount of money apparently appears out of nowhere that completely upends the consensus view.,where most only realise it's significance long after asset prices have reacted to the event, a case in pont being March 2020 when few could understand how stocks were about to enter an epic raging bull market when the worst of the pandemic was yet to materialise. At the time one had clues such as that the governments will print twice the amount they printed before as I wrote long before the start of 2000, that will eventually flow into asset prices and of course experience of been through several cycles of similar events of impending doom inexplicably to most translating into soaring asset prices.
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Sunday, September 22, 2024
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my latest market brief made available to patrons 22nd September.
.....
Stock Market Brief - 22nd Sept - 7pm (UK Time)
US 0.5% rate cut signals that the Fed wants to bring rates down fast from the 5.5% peak, with likely another 0.5% cut before year end and probably targeting sub 4% by the end of 2025 to maybe to around 3.5% which will act as a huge wind behind the stocks bull markets sail as multiples expand. Which in fact is contrary to that which most expect i.e. the analogs being peddled across the blogosfear point to the Fed deep cuts being associated with bear markets which is true! BUT those cuts were in response to FINANCIAL and ECONOMIC CRISIS which is not so today. Remember the market DISCOUNTS THE FUTURE IN THE PRESENT, so is discounting strong economic and earnings growth for 2025 following the 0.5% rate cut by expanding multiples in the present. Rate cuts should act to boost downtrodden stocks such as NIKE and Walt Disney that I accumulated some exposure to.
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Sunday, September 22, 2024
US State Demographics / Housing-Market / Demographics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The big problem with US house price trends is that the US is just so big! Whilst the US as a whole will see a rising population however that rise is not uniform across all states, so whilst this analysis is heading towards a conclusion for rising average house prices that does not mean that house prices will rise in your town, city or state. For instance it appears folk are fleeing the likes of New York and California for Texas and Florida of all places! Which I guess is more of a dream of what Florida once was rather than what it has become i.e. over populated. I strongly suspect that Florida will witness a trend reversal over the coming years as folk flee over crowded Florida for the likes of the Carolinas.
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Sunday, September 22, 2024
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Submissions
When the Federal Reserve decides to slash interest rates, it sets off a domino effect in the financial world, and precious metals like gold and silver are among the first to feel the impact. Yesterday, we saw a 0.50% cut, so it’s time to revisit how these metals have historically performed… and let’s just say, they’ve put on quite the show.
The Golden (and Silver) Truth About Fed Rate Cuts
Since 2000, gold and silver have shown a knack for appreciating when the Fed cuts rates by a full half percentage point. Here’s a look at how they’ve danced to the Fed’s tune:
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