Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Unsupported Bullish Investor Sentiment - Stock Market Set to Crash? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: If one were to look at the current state of the stock market, because of the substantial run-up in prices, one would think that investor sentiment is being based on the bullish opinion that corporate earnings will continue to rise.

However, a look below the surface would reveal that corporate earnings are not growing anywhere near the levels necessary to sustain the current enthusiasm in investor sentiment.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

How to Play the Fed’s New QE Tapering Policy / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing

By: Investment_U

Alexander Green writes: It’s amazing just how often – and how effectively – the media and its various talking heads get investors to take their eye off the ball. (In case you don’t play golf or baseball, taking your eye off the ball causes anything from a shank to a whiff.)

Right now, for instance, the topic du jour is “When will the Fed begin ‘tapering’ its bond-buying program and how should I play it?”

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

One Simple Measure for Investing in a Volatile Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: Volatility has been edging higher since the end of 2012, but so far, the stock market has held up pretty well.

Take a look at the chart below of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the “Fear Factor Index,” based on the S&P 500 Index. The VIX reading is holding around 16.8—well below some of its high readings since 1990, as shown on the chart. When the VIX is low, it suggests traders are relaxed and not concerned about the current stock market climate; but you need to remain alert, because investor mistakes occur when people are too confident.

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Stock Market Top Called to Within One Day by Contracting Fibonacci Spiral...Now What? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: David_Petch

It is nearing two years since I first published an article describing a theory titled "Contracting Fibonacci Spiral". For further information, simply Google "Contracting Fibonacci Spiral" and a plethora of articles should be listed to provide a more thorough description. Further to this, I published an article in the April 2013 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities (Submitted in October 2012) to attempt to bring more mainstream exposure to this concept.

In a nutshell, the theory indicated important tops of 1966, 1987, 2000, 2008, with the next sequential date due in 2013. The ideal date was December 27th, 2012, but a 5% extension in time generated a date of May 21st, 2013. The broad stock market indices topped on May 22nd, 2013, which is either a fluke or is following the CFS, but with an extended time post for this move. The next CFS date is 3 years away and has already been determined and posted on our site.

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Can Bernanke Keep the Stock Market Rally Going? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Graham_Summers

The markets are rallying today because Bernanke and the Fed meet on Wednesday and will announce their new policies (if any).

Someone might want to explain to them that the Nikkei just collapsed in spite of Central Bank policy. The bank of Japan announced it would buy $1.4 trillion worth of assets (roughly 25% of Japan’s GDP) in early April. The Nikkei has already wiped out almost all of the gains since that time.

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Stock Market Violent Whipsaw Continues.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Jack_Steiman

It was a very, very wild day today. We saw weak action late on Friday. It figured to mean we'd likely see lower this morning in terms of those pre-market futures. Sometimes you get a clue from how a day closes and what takes place on the futures right away after hours. We saw the weak close and the futures move down some as well. So today would be weak for sure, right? Wrong. Strong futures simply got stronger as the morning went along. We blasted higher once the marked opened, and then things got very interesting. We kept running higher. The first two sixty-minute sticks suggested the market would hold up for the day. That reality lasted until we saw the 2pm hour hit.

Monday, June 17, 2013

Market Calls Fed’s Bluff / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013

By: Michael_Pento

The Fed has recently expressed a desire to begin winding down its Quantitative Easing program in the next few months. This would be the first step towards the eventual raising of interest rates. Mr. Bernanke and the other members of our central bank believe the normalization of interest rates would occur within the context of robust markets and rising GDP growth.

Monday, June 17, 2013

Global Recession Forecast - Is PIMCO's Bill Gross Wrong Again? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013

By: Money_Morning

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Stuart Varney put the question directly to me last week during his Fox Business show:

What do I make of comments from PIMCO's Bill Gross...that he's projecting a 60% chance of a global recession in the next three to five years?

Now, Bill Gross is obviously one of the most powerful men in the world. PIMCO, the firm he founded, is the world's biggest bond manager. He has assets under management of more than $2 trillion (that's right, with a "t").

Monday, June 17, 2013

Stock Market Caught in a Wide Trading Range, Odds Favor Resolution to Downside / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Andre_Gratian

SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.

Intermediate trend - SPX continues to progress according to its structure. An intermediate reversal is on the way.

Monday, June 17, 2013

Stock Markets Risks Unacceptably High and Rising / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Brian_Bloom

Post GFC, US corporate profits have been very likely rising for reasons that are more related to cost savings and margin increases than to real revenue growth. These cost savings have now worked their way through the system and future US corporate profit growth will be more dependent on price inflation and/or sales volume growth.

US balance of payments may improve as a result of improved energy exports but, because the country is now oriented to a service economy, any growth in export volumes of manufactured goods is unlikely to impact significantly on the economy as a whole. In any event, with the rest of the world in recession, the likelihood of a growth in export volumes is low.  With government spending sequestered, an implication is that employment opportunities will have to be driven by private enterprise.

Sunday, June 16, 2013

Media, Economy and Markets Behind The looking Glass! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013

By: Robert_M_Williams

The most important service rendered by the press and the magazines is that of educating people to approach printed matter with distrust! - Samuel Butler (1612 – 1680)

I have been of the opinion for a number of years that what we see in the media is exactly what “they” want us to see, no more and no less. With very few exceptions, if we see it on TV it’s because they want us to see it and it is meaningless. If by chance you do see something bad on TV it’s because it isn’t what it appears, or the censors slipped up. Most of what appears to be bad is simple misdirection intended to distract your attention away from what really matters. This week was no exception as we are subjected to the monotonous drone of employment numbers, earnings reports and whether or not the market has topped. None of that matters, at least not in the way it is being presented to us.

Sunday, June 16, 2013

Stock Market Longer Trend Weakening, Daily Trend Turning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Michael_Noonan

Charts are not predictive in nature, rather they are instructive on how to best prepare and get an edge when deciding to enter into a position, [or exit one]. It is of the utmost importance to have a game plan in place, beforehand, otherwise, one is relying upon factors more emotionally driven than fact driven.

The function of reading a chart is to gain insight from the most reliable source available, the market itself. What a market does is generate information that reflects the outcome of all source decision-makers, from the most highly informed and experienced to the least informed and weakest, with varying degrees of skills in between.

Saturday, June 15, 2013

Stock Market Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Tony_Caldaro

Another choppy week in the US as foreign markets continue to confirm downtrends. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.10%, the NDX/NAZ were -1.45%, and the DJ World index dropped 0.60%. On the economic front positive reports continue to outpace negatives ones. On the uptick: wholesale/business inventories, retail sales, the PPI, the WLEI and the monetary base, plus both weekly jobless claims and the current account deficit improved. On the downtick: export/import prices, consumer sentiment and the budget deficit worsened. Next week we have the FOMC meeting, housing reports and leading indicators.

Saturday, June 15, 2013

Stock Market Bulls Ignore Japan’s Implosion and Pray for More Printing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Graham_Summers

The markets in the US have entered a mania in which investors look for any and all excuses to push the markets higher.

Case in point, yesterday Japan’s Nikkei fell 6%. This happened in spite of the fact the Bank of Japan is currently engaged in a QE policy equal to over 25% of Japan’s economy.

Saturday, June 15, 2013

Stock Market Back And Forth...Good Medicine.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Jack_Steiman

So Thursday we're up 180 points after struggling just prior. The market is ready to blast out, right? Well, not exactly. You see, in an agnostic, sideways, unwinding situation you get a lot of head fakes both ways. You think things are bad and then they rise. You think things are good and then they fall. This process continues the medicine the market needed, which again, was two-fold. Unwind overbought and very top heavy oscillators and unwind too many bulls, and thus, get more folks bearish or least unsure of themselves. Days like today are so good for the bigger picture in that it made folks angry.

Saturday, June 15, 2013

What If The Secular Stocks Bear Market Is Not Over? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Sy_Harding

It’s easy to forget, especially in the excitement of the recent new market highs, that not only a cyclical bear market, but also a secular bear market began when the market topped out in 2000.

None other than Warren Buffet warned in November 1999 that “Over the next 17 years equities will not perform anything like – anything like - they’ve performed over the last 17 years.”

Friday, June 14, 2013

Investors Beware Higher Interest Rates Looming / Stock-Markets / Investing 2013

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: The rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has been creeping up higher and just broke the four-percent threshold. This is a telltale sign that higher financing rates are on the horizon.

While there’s still hope that the Federal Reserve will hold off on reducing its bond buying at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the reality is that the money party is coming to an end.

Friday, June 14, 2013

Truly Shocking - Selling Access to Market Moving Economic Data 2 Seconds Before Everyone Else! / Stock-Markets / Market Regulation

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: Pssst...Want to buy a watch?

I don't have one for sale, but I know some folks that are willing to sell you... well, it's not a watch, but it's something much, much better. They'll sell you time. You want to buy some time?

Friday, June 14, 2013

Bail-Ins, Bonds Bursting and Hyperinflation… Three MEGAS / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013

By: DeepCaster_LLC

“The implicit assumption behind that siren call must be that the inflation rate can be manipulated to reach economic objectives. Up today, maybe a little more tomorrow and then pulled back on command. Good luck with that. All experience demonstrates that inflation, when fairly and deliberately started, is hard to control and reverse.”

Paul Volcker, Former Fed Chairman, June, 2013

Indeed! The St. Louis Fed’s adjusted Monetary base shot up from $800 Billion in 2009 to $3.2 Trillion in June 2013.

Thursday, June 13, 2013

Why Central Bankers Are Terrified / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Graham_Summers

Japan continues to implode. We’ve now taken out the trendline that supported this rally since November.