Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Crazy Extend and Pretend Economic World - Cyprus Was the Warning / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
In no particular order the following is a list of what many people think are contemporary insanities. Since most of these have been widely discussed, links have not been provided. The information is easily available via Internet searches.
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Tuesday, June 04, 2013
US Stock Market Foreshadows Another Rally – True Story! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Over the past couple week’s investors and traders have been growing increasingly bearish for the US stock market. While I too also feel this rally is getting long in the teeth there is no reason to exit long positions and start shorting.
My followers know I do not pick tops and I do not pick bottoms. This I explained in great detail in my previous report. There are more cons to that tactic and on several different levels (timing, volatility, emotions, lack of experience, addiction) than there are pro’s.
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Tuesday, June 04, 2013
Stock Market Titanic Syndrome / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The media was all abuzz on Friday with news of another sighting of the dreaded Hindenburg Omen. As there was no shortage of stories describing the “omen” I decided to use this space to mention another indicator with a name which is just as scary: the Titanic Syndrome.On Thursday (one day before the Hindenburg sighting and Friday’s 200 point drop in the Dow!) the Titanic Syndrome appeared. This phenomenon was discovered by Bill Ohama in 1965. Ohama wrote that the syndrome is typically followed by a 10% drop in the Dow.
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Tuesday, June 04, 2013
Stock Market Quietly Correcting.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Markets find a way when the time is right. And they also find a way when the time is right. Confused? I'll explain. When they want to correct they do so. No amount of good news will take the market higher. Good economic reports will simply be ignored. On the other hand, when the market wants to correct, but not get slaughtered, they'll find a way to hang in there even when the very worst of news hits the street. We got that type of news today in a very big way. The ISM Manufacturing Report came out at 49.00. Gulp! Contraction!
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Tuesday, June 04, 2013
Stock Market SPX, VIX Winding Up For Bearish Punch / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The SPX moves may appear disappointing at first glance. However, there is a lot of coiled up energy stored in these moves. All of these waves are impulsive and no matter how much they are being fought against, the waves are grinding down the opposition.
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Monday, June 03, 2013
The Mirage Called the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Michael Lombardi writes:
While an economic slowdown is looming over the global economy, no one seems to care, as stock markets continue to reach new record-highs—giving investors false hopes of economic growth. But how long can this mirage actually last?
The economic slowdown in the global economy I’m talking about is a worldwide pullback in growth. Take India as the first example. According to India’s Central Statistics Office, the Indian economy is growing at five percent—its slowest pace in a decade! The director general of the Confederation of Indian Industry was quoted late last week as saying, “With no visible pick-up in any key levers of the economy, the situation remains grim.” (Source: Mallet, V., “India records slowest growth in a decade,” Financial Times, May 31, 2013.)
Monday, June 03, 2013
China Showing Surprising Interest in the U.S. Stock Market Food Sector / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
George Leong writes: Over the past few years, we have seen an increase in takeover activity in North America’s stock markets by China-based companies. The takeover targets have largely been in the energy and resources areas, where China is in search of alternative sources of raw materials.
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Monday, June 03, 2013
Friday’s Stock Market Drop Was Just a Hint Of What’s Coming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The gaming of economic data continues in the US.
On Friday it was announced that consumer confidence hit its highest level in nearly six years. Indeed, the last time we saw confidence in the economy as this reading was July 2007…
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Monday, June 03, 2013
The Case for Stock Market Being at a Major Turning Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Last Friday I shared some thoughts regarding the potential turn in the US Treasury bond market. As many markets are correlated, it would be worth looking for reversal signs in other markets. And in fact, I believe such signs are in place in the S&P 500.
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Monday, June 03, 2013
Stock Market Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - SPX continues to progress according to its structure. An intermediate reversal is probably on the way.
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Monday, June 03, 2013
Key in Timing Stock Market Tops / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Timing stock market tops and bottoms is risky business and we all know the more the more risk we take the more potential gain would could also made. Correctly timing a top or bottom for any investment is flat out exciting not to mention financially rewarding. But this high risk trading tactic does come with some major issues which you must FULLY understand so that you can protect your capital and self-confidence.
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Monday, June 03, 2013
Why Gold and Stock Market Are About to Reverse Course / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
There’s a reason why commercial traders are regression to the mean traders. In this business it is the one thing that you can absolutely bank on. It's like death and taxes, it never fails. All markets eventually return to the mean. An appropriate corollary to this rule is that the further an asset gets stretched above or below the mean the more violent the regression is, and the further it will move past the mean during the snapback.
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Sunday, June 02, 2013
Euro-zone, U.S. Compounding Errors! Trillions of Dollars being Printed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
You're not to be so blind with patriotism that you can't face reality. Wrong is wrong, no matter who does it or says it. - Malcolm X
Over the last couple of months we’ve heard the IMF, ECB and US Federal Reserve all come out and tell us that they have the right policies in place and things are getting better. Unfortunately, the statistics just don’t bare that out even though they’re often biased in favor of the very governments that produce them. On Friday I saw that unemployment has reached a new high in the Eurozone while inflation remains well below the European Central Bank's target, underscoring just how severe a challenge EU leaders face to revive the bloc's sickly economy. Joblessness in the 17-nation currency area rose to 12.2% in April, this according to Eurostat on Friday, marking a new record since the data series began in 1995.
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Sunday, June 02, 2013
Get Ready to be “CYPRUSED” at a Bank near you / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
The banking situation in Europe continues to deteriorate rapidly. As a measure of the ongoing crisis the “ Bail In” option used in Cyprus is actually being made European Commission policy. The following is a recent report from the much respected Irish Times:
“Proposals under Irish presidency to deal with European bank collapses likely to ‘bail-in’ large depositors.
Deposits of over €100,000 are likely to be hit in the event of future European bank collapses, according to a proposal put forward by the Irish presidency of the European Council ahead of a key meeting of finance ministers next week.
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Sunday, June 02, 2013
Caution for Stock Market Bulls and Bears / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The market is undergoing a correction, but it is enough to call it a top? No. More evidence is required before saying that the Fed has thrown in the towel. If it takes more fiat to keep prices inflated, it will be provided. The alternative would be too painful for investors, [not of concern for the Fed], and too embarrassing to admit to the fraud of QE-Infinity to keep the bubble intact.
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Saturday, June 01, 2013
The Stock Market is Now Sending Numerous Red Warning Flags / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Stocks are on the edge of a cliff.
As you can see, the S&P 500 has failed to breakout to the upside and is now sitting on support. If we take out 1650 we could easily to for 1600 in short order.
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Saturday, June 01, 2013
Stock Market Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
This past holiday shortened week can best be described as choppy until late friday. The SPX started the week at 1650, rallied to 1674, dropped to 1640, rallied to 1662, and ended at 1631. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.15%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%, and the DJ World index was -1.20%. Economic reports remained positively biased with six rising, four declining, and two unchanged. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, pending home sales, consumer confidence/sentiment, the Chicago PMI, and the monetary base. On the downtick: Q1 GDP, personal spending, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims rose. Unchanged were personal income and the PCE. Next week, a busy one, we have the monthly Jobs report, ISM and the FED’s beige book.
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Saturday, June 01, 2013
Stock Market Getting More Violent....Difficult..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
When markets want to do something, there's really no one to stop it from doing so. Suddenly you'll see news that used to be a positive not be a positive any more for the short-term. Long-term is a very different story, but short-term the news stops becoming relevant. Most traders don't understand it. They see a strong report and naturally follow the path of least resistance, and thus, buy stocks. The market initially goes higher which makes sense, but then suddenly falls. Frustrates them. They're not used to it at all. A real change of character. Traders don't do well emotionally with changes in recent character. It makes them less trusting. And that's the whole point.
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Saturday, June 01, 2013
Essential Market Knowledge for Maximizing Real Investor Gains / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
“Since its inception in 1913, The Federal Reserve Board has been responsible for almost 95% devaluation of the U.S. Dollar. All this has been achieved through its ability to continually inflate the money supply.
And, between 1985 and 2005, the Federal Reserve Board has increased the money supply by five times. This extraordinary money creation is merely the catalyst for debt creation. In a fiat money system, money is debt…there is absolutely no way this money can ever be repaid except by continued inflation. But, now that the credit bubble is blown up, inflation is no longer an option; bankruptcy looms.”
“The Federal Reserve…What Has It Done For You Lately?”
Ian Gordon, December 29, 2007, www.axisoflogic.com
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Friday, May 31, 2013
Stock Market Copper Metal Price Disconnect / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Anybody halfway attuned to the markets knows that copper has been a 21st-century rock star. No longer just a boring industrial metal, copper is a flamboyant asset that has made fortunes for investors and speculators. It’s soared a staggering 662% from its 2001 low to 2011 high. And still today in the $3.25 region copper is nearly four-fold its 20-year pre-bull-market average.
Copper’s journey has of course played out under an umbrella of structurally strong fundamentals, but by no means has it been a lucid and linear trek. Copper is a commodity after all, and volatility comes with the territory. Over the last dozen years it’s seen wildly exuberant uplegs as well as crushing selloffs.
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