Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, June 09, 2013
Positive End to a Volatile Stock Market Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Courtesy of Doug Short: The S&P 500 closed an exceptionally volatile week with a gain of 0.78%, thanks to the Friday gain of 1.28%. Today’s employment report for May was a perfect signal to the bulls: Nonfarm employment met or slightly beat expectations, so that key economic indicator is still in the green, but the unemployment rate ticked up ever so slightly from 7.51% to 7.56%. And since we round to a single decimal, it registered as a full tenth higher at 7.6%. Why the uptick? Labor force participation grew faster (up 420K) than the new jobs (175K). That uptick suggests that the Fed won’t be tapering QE in the near term, and it was that fear of tapering that created the high volatility this week.
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Saturday, June 08, 2013
How to Protect Your Cash in Times of Crisis / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2013
The large depositors at Cypriot banks are shouldering a heavy burden. You’ll recall what happened back in March when the Eurozone financial wizards forced average citizens to participate in what was called a “bail-in.” It seems downright unfair for depositors with more than 100,000 euros to suffer a levy on up to 60% of their deposits. That’s about $140,000, give or take, at current exchange rates. And if you’re a retiree, having the government swipe $84,000 from your $140,000 account just to bail out feckless bankers is a pretty big deal
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Friday, June 07, 2013
This Weeks Stock Market Reversals Explained / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
This week has played out perfectly thus far. The expected volatility of intraday price swings and lower prices for stocks has happened. The Vix has collapsed the 15% which I mentioned would happen just 2 days ago and money is flowing out of precious metals and miners today in a big way as that risk off money is now moving into Risk-On Stocks.
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Friday, June 07, 2013
Don't Ignore the Hindenburg Stock Market Crash Omen / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
David Zeiler writes: The Hindenburg Omen-a harbinger of stock market crashes-eerily appeared again last week...and the Dow Jones promptly dropped 205 points. But its appearance brought mostly scorn from the mainstream financial media.
Here are just a few of the headlines from the past week:
"Hindenburg Omen is Just Hot Air"
"Why 'Hindenburg Omen' Is Just a Superstition"
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Friday, June 07, 2013
Why a Eurozone Break-Up Could Happen / Stock-Markets / Eurozone Debt Crisis
Moe Zulfiqar writes: The eurozone crisis has been haunting the global economy for a while.
Countries in the common currency region are deteriorating very quickly. Look at the Spanish economy, for example: in the first quarter of 2013, it contracted 0.5% after continuing its slide from the last quarter of 2012, when it declined 0.8%. The Spanish economy, the fourth-biggest in the eurozone, has been contracting for seven successive quarters. (Source: “Austerity chokes off Spanish economy,” Deutsche Welle, May 30, 2013.)
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Friday, June 07, 2013
Stock Market Going the Wrong Way for the Bulls / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
SPX broke its 50-day moving average at 1605.00 a short while ago. It is now retesting its 50-day and may rise above it to the hourly Cycle Bottom at 1613.00. The SPX now has permission to Flash Crash once it loses its grip on the 50-day.
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Thursday, June 06, 2013
When Stocks Tank / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Mark Skousen writes: On May 28, 1962 – 51 years ago – Wall Street suffered a mini-crash. The New York Stock Exchange average had its biggest one-day drop in over 35 years. The next day the newspapers reported:
BLACK MONDAY PANIC ON WALL STREET
INVESTORS LOSE BILLIONS AS MARKET BREAKS
NATION FEARS NEW 1929 DEBACLE
Thursday, June 06, 2013
Stock Market Margin Buying Surpasses 2007 Danger Levels – Another Crash Coming? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Gary Gately writes: There's nothing like buying securities with money you don't have - or, more precisely, with borrowed money from your broker, with your investments as collateral.
It's called buying on margin, and it's soaring as the market continues its tear and speculative investors seek a piece of the action. As your stocks appreciate you can borrow even more. A market rally lets you expand your portfolio by piling on more debt.
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Thursday, June 06, 2013
Investors Beware: Underlying Weakness in Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
George Leong writes: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is down 2.3% from its record-high on May 28, but just like the S&P 500, the DJIA appears to be flashing some fatigue on the charts, suggesting some stock market risk and possible market correction.
Now, this may only be a temporary pause, or it could be foreshadowing some upcoming selling, stock market risk, or a potential buying opportunity.
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Thursday, June 06, 2013
Stock Market Correcting Harder..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The market is finally feeling the wrath of the correction. Emotions are flying high. People are confused and angry. That's when you know the market has begun to sell with some force. When people hate the game or anyone they depend on when playing the game, you know the selling has truly begun. It's easy to be happy when markets are climbing, but it's not so easy when it finally sells 5-8%. You hope people have taken the warnings about the difficulty of sustainable upside seriously and weren't playing too inappropriately, but the game does beg for action since in reality, it's nothing more than a big casino in many ways. The lure of playing is always there. There's no one to stop you. You're free to do whatever you want at all times. The house isn't watching. You are there for six and a half hours if you don't include pre- and post-market action and you have the freedom to do whatever you want.
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
What Happens When the Stock Market Loses Life Support? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Stocks are on borrowed time.
The single item that has driven stock prices over the last four plus years (since the 2008 Crash) has been the Fed’s expansion of its balance sheet. David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff, depicted this fact beautifully in the chart below:
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
A Summer Stock Market Crash Scenario / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Despite the recent weakness, the broad market has displayed a fair amount of resilience in the face of rising interest rates and falling commodity prices. The charts even leave us with some hope that there will be one more rally to new highs in the coming weeks. But a growing list of problems also suggests the market could be setting up for a repeat of the 1998 mini-crash later this summer.There are several parallels between now and the spring and summer of 1998 which led to the July-October decline. The year 1998 was an exceptionally strong one for U.S. equities for the first half of the year; that year also witnessed a strengthening domestic economy. Like this year, however, 1998 saw trouble begin overseas with global weakness reflected by falling commodity prices.
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Lessons from Economic Crises in Argentina / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
Nick Giambruno: Joining me now is David Galland, the managing director of Casey Research. His internationalization story, which involved moving his life and his family from the US to Argentina, was recently featured in Internationalize Your Assets, a free online video from Casey Research. He is perfectly suited to help us better understand some of the important lessons in internationalization that Argentina offers. Welcome, David.
David Galland: Nice to be here.
Nick: First, why don't you give us a little background about the Argentine people and how they have learned to deal with their government and recurring financial crises?
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Why Tracking the Heavily Shorted Stocks Makes Sense / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
George Leong writes: When I look at potential trading opportunities, I like to scan for stocks that have high short selling positions in them. These are the traders betting against the stock.
Now, while there’s always some validity to why a stock becomes a short selling target, it’s not always the case; this is where I see contrarian trading opportunities.
Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Everything You Believe Is Wrong / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
Marc Lichtenfeld writes: I’m reading a fascinating book called the Emperor of All Maladies by Siddhartha Mukherjee. It details the history of cancer and cancer treatments.
What I find most interesting is not the chemistry or biology in how new medicines were discovered (the book is not heavy on the science, so don’t be scared off). Instead, what makes the book so thought provoking is how sure doctors were of their philosophies toward cancer… and yet were completely wrong.
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Financial Contagions Spread Global Investment Dysfunction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
Australia and New Zealand, as well as many other nations around the world, have caught an economic virus of sorts. This contagion is primarily being spread by Japan, the United States and the European Monetary Union, all of whom have undertaken increasingly irresponsible monetary and financial policies whose effects are proving communicable.
People are used to goods being in global competition, where the prize goes to those nations who produce the best goods at the lowest cost. However, there is a loophole in this simple relationship, whereby cost depends on the relative value of a nation's currency, and that can be deliberately altered by a nation.
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Professor Forecasts Dow to Hit 17,000, Will It Really Happen This Year? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
George Leong writes: There are some signs the stock market is developing some froth. Besides a growing disconnect between the record levels of the stock market and the underlying economic and business fundamentals, we are witnessing predictions that remind me of the froth in 2000.
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Why I'm Calling a Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Shah Gilani writes: Party like it's 1999.
I'm not talking about celebrating the new millennium all over again. I'm talking about celebrating the markets roaring ahead, like they did in 1999.
Just remember: There will be a price to pay. There was then, and there will be again.
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Dangerous Divergences Between Bonds and Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
It all seems so surreal. After being mesmerized by the Fed’s hallucinogenic “Quantitative Easing,” (QE) drug, and seduced by the Fed’s Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), and rescued by the Fed’s clandestine intervention in the stock index futures market, for the past 4-½-years, it’s easy to forget that there was once a time when the Fed’s main policy tool was simply adjusting the federal funds rate. It’s even harder to recall that two decades ago, the Fed’s raison d’être was combating inflation, whereas today, the Fed’s main mission is rigging the stock market, and inflating the fortunes of the wealthiest 10% of Americans.
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Wednesday, June 05, 2013
Follow the Fed to 50% Stock Market Crash Flops / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
John Hussman is one of the savviest investing minds I know, and so I never miss his Weekly Market Comment. This week he wrote about an interesting disconnect between what investors believe about "fighting the Fed" (i.e., don't do it) and the reality of S&P 500 returns, and I've made that piece today's Outside the Box.
John leads off with a provocative fact: "… the last two 50% market declines – both the 2001-2002 plunge and the 2008-2009 plunge – occurred in environments of aggressive, persistent Federal Reserve easing." Go figure, right? And to make the situation even more counterintuitive and confusing,
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