Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, January 16, 2015
Will Collapse in Oil Price Cause a Stock Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: OilPrice_Com
The Black Monday stock market crash of October 19th, 1987 was the largest one-day percentage decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The crash was a genuinely perplexing event. To informed observers it seemed to have little basis in economic fundamentals. There were various "hand-waving" theories, including that the introduction of automated trading on the Dow had injected instability into the market. However, at the time, Black Monday appeared to come out of nowhere.
Thursday, January 15, 2015
Stock Market Negative Expectations Following Swiss National Bank Decision To Unpeg Its Currency / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook remains neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: neutral
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Thursday, January 15, 2015
Will the Crude Oil Price Crash Spell Ruin for Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Clif_Droke
Talk of deflation was overheard on the Street as a few analysts quoted by the news wires mentioned the D-word. One reason for the recent equity market weakness is the uncertainty among investors as to whether lower oil prices are ultimately beneficial or detrimental for the economy. In one camp are those who maintain that lower oil prices will boost consumption; on the other side are those who claim that plummeting energy prices can only lead to outright deflation. Because neither side has a decisive majority right now, equities are caught in the imbalance of opinion which explains much of the recent volatility.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
More Stock Market Supports Breaking, Investors Don't Seem to be Worried Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has crossed beneath both its previous low and the Lip of the Cup with Handle formation. It may stop at mid-Cycle support at 1975.36, but not for long. The next real support is the 3-year trading channel trendline at 1900.00. Minor Wave 3 should expand considerably to a multiple of the length of Wave 1. A multiple of 3X, for example, would put SPX at 1750.00. I suspect it may be an even greater multiple, such as 3.382 or 3.5X, since that would take Wave 3 nearer to 1700.00.
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Wednesday, January 14, 2015
Stock Market SPX Trendline About to be Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX did gap down but not beneath the Lip of its Cup with Handle formation. It challenged the Lip but bounced back above. It may be gathering strength for another attempt below the trendline, since it has also stubbornly closed beneath the 50-day Moving Average three days in a row. The algos cannot keep it elevated enough…ultimately, the breakdown could be severe.
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
A Five-Year Global Financial Forecast: Tsunami Warning / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: John_Mauldin
It is the time of the year for forecasts; but rather than do an annual forecast, which is as much a guessing game as anything else (and I am bad at guessing games), I’m going to do a five-year forecast to take us to the end of the decade, which I think may be useful for longer-term investors. We will focus on events and trends that I think have a high probability, and I’ll state what I think the probabilities are for my forecasts to actually happen. While I could provide several dozen items, I think there are seven major trends that are going to sweep over the globe and that as an investor you need to have on your radar screen. You will need to approach these trends with caution, but they will also provide significant opportunities.
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
Kitchin Cycle Points to an Important Stock Market Decline in 2015 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Ed_Carlson
An approximate 4yr cycle, which has been identified as early as the 15th century, was popularized by Joseph Kitchin in his 1923 text Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors. The 4yr cycle between lows in the Dow can be found throughout the entire history of the index.
The chart below includes one inverted cycle of five years which ended at the high in 2007. The only other inversion in the Dow occurred in 1946.
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Tuesday, January 13, 2015
Conclusion from Swelling Stocks/Yields Ratio / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Ashraf_Laidi
As stocks hit a fresh record high relative to bond yields -- measured by the S&P500/US 10-yr yield ratio at 1081--the contrast between these two markets becomes palpable and the remaining conclusion for a stabilization in the ratio may not appeal to equity bulls. This is not the first time we see a new a high in the stocks/yields ratio, but plunging oil prices are certainly making this phenomenon less of an aberration and more of the new normal... until when?
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Tuesday, January 13, 2015
Stock Market Still Not Totally Bearish...Not Good Either... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
Although you can't be happy if you're bullish at this moment in time. There are more reasons than we need to think about things like a bear market or at the least, a severe correction. The weekly and monthly-index charts are poor. The daily charts are showing weak oscillators. Froth has been off the charts for a very long time. Bears are in deep hibernation. It's been far too long as well. The bulls saw an incredible head fake last week with two strong gap up days that ran higher all day. Well, let's just say it could end up being a huge head fake. That story still unwritten. The market looked powerful prior to the open. With about one hour to go before it opened the futures started falling fast allowing for a flat bell ring.
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Tuesday, January 13, 2015
Stock Market SPX Triple Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
It is hard to imagine that SPX could decline another 350 points, give or take, from here in only 2.3 days. However, it has done so before. In order for a Flash crash to work, it needs an element of surprise. I have no idea what the catalyst might be. But once it begins, gravity may take over rather quickly.
SPX is on a triple sell signal until further notice.
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Monday, January 12, 2015
SPX Stock Market Pop-n-drop. Crude Just Drops / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures rallied in the Premarket to the cash equivalent of the Intermediate-term resistance at 2053.65, then backed away. Should it not exceed resistance then it may turn down in Wave (iii) of [i] of 3. I don’ expect it should take long to do that. This decline has a lot of ground to cover this week.
Monday, January 12, 2015
Is the Stock Market 7-Year Cycle Rolling Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market
Intermediate trend - Is the 7-yr cycle sketching an intermediate top?
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, January 12, 2015
Stocks Head Lower Again As Investors Continue To Hesitate / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook remains neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: neutral
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, January 12, 2015
Market Price and the Fool’s Game / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The reason why a mirror only switches your image left to right and not also up and down is an illusive property of optics. Optically, the image appears as if you somehow walked around to the back of the mirror to face it again.
But rarely do we ask ourselves questions like these. Normally we just take it for granted.
To understand price in today’s world is, ultimately, about understanding price mechanism.
Monday, January 12, 2015
France's 9-11, A Measured View of a Difficult Week and the Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: Money_Morning
Michael E. Lewitt France's 9-11 should remind investors that the world sits atop a precarious geopolitical perch. Madmen with guns have the ability to wreak enormous damage on the fabric of society, which in turn places the stability of markets at risk.
Last week's tragic events in Paris are likely to impose significantly greater security costs on Western societies while leading them to question the open borders that feed immigration and trade, two keys to the future economic growth that will be necessary to dig out of the deepening debt hole they have dug themselves.
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Sunday, January 11, 2015
Simple Stock Market Investing Beating Strategy 2015 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes: The education of new investors often follows similar paths...
New investors get interested in the stock market and plan to get rich quick. They think it's just a matter of time before they find some small, unheard-of company that will grow 100 times over, making them rich.
Before long, the investors realize that investing in small-growth stocks is harder than it looks. Yes, occasionally a tiny stock blossoms into a big winner. But it's usually not enough to offset all the other duds. They learn that smart investors buy established quality companies and hold them for extended periods.
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Saturday, January 10, 2015
Stock Market Roller Coaster Start to 2015 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Tony_Caldaro
The first full week of 2015 starts off like a roller coaster. The market started the week at SPX 2058. After a gap down opening on Monday the market dropped to SPX 1992 by midday Tuesday. Then it rallied to SPX 2064, helped by two gap up openings, by late Thursday afternoon. Then on Friday it sold off again, hitting SPX 2038 by late morning, then ending the week at 2045. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.60%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.45%, and the DJ World was -0.80%. Economic reports for the week were generally positive. On the uptick: auto sales, the ADP, consumer credit, wholesale inventories, the MMIS, plus the unemployment rate, weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit all improved. On the downtick: factory orders, ISM services, monthly payrolls and the WLEI. Next week will be highlighted by the FED’s Beige book, the CPI/PPI and Industrial production.
Saturday, January 10, 2015
The ECB Will Be Big Factor in 2015’s First Half Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Sy_Harding
The European Central Bank has provided assurances for months that it is ‘monitoring’ economic conditions in the 18-nation euro-zone, and will take aggressive stimulus measures ‘if necessary’.
However, even as those economic conditions worsen, increasingly indicating the euro-zone is sliding into recession, and pressure mounts for the ECB to take action, it has done nothing except periodically re-affirm its assurances that it will do so if necessary.
Friday, January 09, 2015
Stocks on a Confirmed Sell / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is on confirmed sell signal, since it has declined beneath the 50-day at 2042.43 it will be on a confirmed sell signal through the end of the decline.
Friday, January 09, 2015
Market Forecasts 2015 - Stray Reflections / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: John_Mauldin
’Tis the season for making forecasts. I will be sending my own five-year projections this weekend, but today for your Outside the Box reading pleasure we look at some similarly longer-term prognostications from the newest member of the Mauldin Economics writing team, Jawad Mian. Jawad writes a monthly global macro advisory publication called Stray Reflections, which is read by some of the world's largest hedge funds, family offices, and asset managers. I and my team have become fascinated with his work. Jawad is not, in my opinion, non-consensus or even contrarian, but seemingly comes at macroeconomic issues from right angles, offering a viewpoint far different from almost anything else I read.
Born and raised in the UAE, educated in Canada, and now based in Dubai, Jawad views the world differently from the vast majority of Western-born and -trained analysts. A thoughtful and clear communicator, he is a rising star in the macroeconomic space, and I am glad to have him with us at Mauldin Economics.
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