Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, February 03, 2015

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2015 by Nadeem Walayat / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market has had wild roller coaster ride during January in the wake of the euro-zone crisis where one of the best days of the year (+275) is immediately followed by the worst day of the year (-335) the effect of which is to literally grind the strength out of the stocks bull market rally of 2014 with stomach churning moves that have been encouraging the perma-bears to literally scream at the top of their lungs that this time, THIS TIME the bull market really is over! Which has been regurgitated at length by the mainstream media and BlogosFear backed by supporting reasons coalescing around euro-zone collapse, end of Fed QE, and possible interest rate hikes being just around the corner, all of this despite the FACT that stocks actually do quite nicely during the early years of RATE hiking cycles! In fact its rate CUTS that stocks bulls need to worry about for they signal WEAKNESS ahead. Then there’s China weakness, Europe recession, ISIS and not forgetting EBOLA! So plenty of doom for the bears to play pick and mix with for reasons why Bull Market End Time is here!

Monday, February 02, 2015

More Euro-tragedy / Stock-Markets / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Despite the uncertainties ahead of the Greek general election, the European Central Bank (ECB) went ahead and announced quantitative easing (QE) of €60bn per month from March to at least September 2016. What makes this interesting is the mounting evidence that QE does not bring about economic recovery. Even Jaime Caruana, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements and who is the central bankers’ central banker, has publicly expressed deep reservations about QE. However, the ECB ploughs on regardless.

Monday, February 02, 2015

2015 Gold, Markets Outlook: What You Really Need to Know / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Jeff_Clark

In the January issue of BIG GOLD, I interviewed 17 analysts, economists, and authors on what they expect for gold in 2015. Some of those included what we affectionately call our Casey Brain Trust—Doug Casey, Olivier Garret, Bud Conrad, David Galland, Marin Katusa, Louis James, and Terry Coxon. The issue was so popular that we decided to reprint this portion.

I think you’ll find some very insightful and useful reading here (click on a link to read his bio)…

Monday, February 02, 2015

Precarious Times for Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Bob_Loukas

It suddenly seems as though the good times in equities might be ending. Though my perspective is based only on “gut feel”, there seems to be an underlying level of fear that has crept into the markets. If so, it’s a real problem for equities. Any market trading at all-time highs and with a valuation far above historical averages requires a continued level of irrational excitement and speculative ignorance to remain sustainable. And fear is not consistent with irrational, speculative ignorance.

Monday, February 02, 2015

Stock Markets Mixed Expectations Following Friday's Move Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook remains neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Monday, February 02, 2015

Where to invest in 2015? / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015

By: Dhaval_Shah

Globally, Deflation ( declining demand and prices)has emerged as imminent threat. Developed economies (Govt and Central banks) have been attempting every possible option like –ve interest rates & debt to GDP raising in excess of 100%, to stimulate demand. But, it seems efforts are not paying targeted results and economies are sleeping into deflation.

Monday, February 02, 2015

Stock Market Challenging Important Support / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market

Intermediate trend - Is the 7-yr cycle sketching an intermediate top?

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.

Sunday, February 01, 2015

Australian Stock Market Index ASX200 Technical Analysis  / Stock-Markets / Austrailia

By: Austin_Galt

I have been calling for new rally highs in the Australian stock index, the ASX200, and nothing has changed my view on that. The only thing that has changed is my confidence - it has increased. Let’s find out why beginning with the weekly chart.

Saturday, January 31, 2015

Stock Market Major 4 or Primary IV Wave / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Tony_Caldaro

Gap openings continued to be the theme for January with four more this week, and 15 in 20 trading days. The market started the week at SPX 2052, bounced to 2058 on Monday, declined by Thursday to 1989, bounced, and then ended the week at 1995. For the week the SPX/DOW were -2.85%, the NDX/NAZ were -2.90%, and the DJ World index was -1.65%. On the economic front reports came in even. On the uptick: consumer confidence, new home sales, the Chicago PMI, the WLEI, and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: durable goods, Case-Shiller, pending home sales, consumer sentiment and the GDP declined. Next week’s economic reports will be highlighted by Payrolls, ISM and the PCE.

Saturday, January 31, 2015

Stock Market Monthly Bifurcation...Volatility Explodes.....Neither Side Yet In Control / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

If you're trading this market it's quite likely you're struggling mightily. The degree of volatility is off the charts about as much as I've ever witnessed. The moves from day to day are intense, but even more so are the moves hour to hour, and sometimes less than that. In a twenty minutes span you can see the S&P 500 swing twenty or more points. This process gets repeated many times over the course of a single trading day. No one does well in this environment unless you're taking the highly risky chance of holding stocks in to their earnings report. I personally would never recommend that.

Friday, January 30, 2015

Hulbert on Interest Rate Hikes & Stock Market; a Response / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

Mark Hulbert has a piece this morning at MarketWatch in which he de-correlates the first Fed interest rate hike from any supposedly corresponding stock market movements.  I agree with some but not all of what he writes.  Let’s take it a chunk at a time.

Friday, January 30, 2015

Stock Market Back to Back January Drops in SP500 Always Meant Danger / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Ashraf_Laidi

January will most likely be negative for US stock indices (S&P500), and will be the 2nd consecutive year of negative January performance.

While many are familiar with the old adage "As January goes, so goes the rest of the year", we had pointed to the fact that negative January performances in the S&P500 have always led to high profile volatility and/or double digit declines in a single month that year.

Friday, January 30, 2015

To Create Unlimited Market Liquidity or Not; That Is the Question / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble

By: Doug_Wakefield

"On October 15, 2014 between 9:33 and 9:45, liquidity evaporated in Treasury futures and prices skyrocketed (causing yields to plummet). Five minutes later, prices returned to 9:33 levels.

Friday, January 30, 2015

SPX completes a Leading Diagonal Wave [i] and [ii] / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The overlap and in the Waves and the 47% retracement makes this more clearly a Minute (Leading Diagonal) Wave [i] and [ii] today. Wave [i] bounced off the hourly Cycle Bottom support at 1988.39 and completed what appears to be a 5-wave sub-Minute Wave (c) of Minute Wave [ii] at the close.

Tomorrow we may see a lesser degree iteration of sub-Minute Waves (i)-(ii), to start off Wave [iii] of3.

Friday, January 30, 2015

It’s Not Time to Sell Everything – Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: One of my favorite lines is “I’m not the kind of guy to say I told you so – but if I was, I’d sure be saying it now.”

As far as saying “I told you so,” back in the summer of 2008, in my “Friday Night Illumination” emails to my banker and trader friends, I screamed, “SELL EVERYTHING!”

People thought I was nuts. Literally, that I’d lost my mind. Sell everything – no one ever says that, ever.

Thursday, January 29, 2015

13 Investment Themes for 2015 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015

By: John_Mauldin

“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” says my friend Gary Shilling as he kicks off today’s Outside the Box. He’s referring to his investment themes for 2015. He first gives us 11 reasons to continue favoring long Treasury bonds. That’s an obvious play for him if you know his view, but it’s nevertheless a compelling one this year and one that you should think through, given the specter of deflation about in the world, the firing up of QE in Japan and Europe (which gives folks money to buy … Treasurys), and the safe-haven status of the US dollar.

Gary’s reason #9 for buying Treasurys is that “The odds of a near-term Fed rate hike are receding. He sees any Fed rate increase being pushed out “as the deflationary effects of the oil price plunge sink in and investors – and the Fed – realize that foreign central bank stimuli amount to Fed tightening [in relative terms].”

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Stocks Suffered Some Further Losses Following FOMC Decision Release / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook remains neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Fed Market Friendly As Usual.... Stock Market Caring Less And Less.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

If you've noticed over the past many weeks and really two to three months, the market hasn't had the ability to break out to new highs. We've seen dramatic, if not historical, measures taken by the ECB with regards to unprecedented levels of free bank cash with a new QE program of over one trillion per year, not to mention that it is open ended. We've seen our Fed, Ms. Yellen, today say rates will stay low. That she has the markets back. Of course, those aren't her exact words, but they sure are implied, and the market knows it. The markets initial reaction, as always, was to try higher. It always tries higher. This time higher didn't hold. More and more measures are being taken globally to prop up markets and their respective economies, but the measures taken are having less of a positive effect.

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Stock Market Breakdown! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has broken beneath previous lows, giving another confirmed sell signal. I had expected an attempt at the highs late this afternoon, but liquidity is the lowest ever in the futures markets for a FOMC day. This morning’s Minute Wave [ii] top may actually be the Primary Cycle pivot.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Acceleration Of Events With Rising Chaos – US Dollar Death Foretold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Jim_Willie_CB

In the closing months of 2014, on numerous occasions the position was put forth that as the days of January stacked up, toward the end of the month and going into February, that the global financial structures would show severe strain, widespread disruptions, and possible signs of cracks in breakdown. The forecasts were clearly stated and repeated. Even the present flow of events has been shocking, despite the expectation. The forecast certainly has proved correct. The disruptive events and pace of systemic breakdown are surely going to continue. The year will go down in history as extremely messy, extremely chaotic, and extremely important in the demise of the USDollar. Check the 7-year cycle for an amazing sequence that goes back to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, the 1980 Gold & Silver Hunt Brothers peak, the 1987 Black Monday, the 1994 Irrational Exuberance with ensuing Asian Meltdown, the 2001 Inside 9/11 Job, and the 2008 Lehman failure. The year 2015 will be known for the USDollar demise with full fireworks, set up with Ukraine and the European repeat of Waterloo. A quickening pace of events is highly indicative in two natural types in nature, namely the lead up to a natural earthquake, and the lead up to a human childbirth.