Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, March 02, 2015
Stock Market Party Like It’s 2015 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
In 1982 the artist formally known as Prince released a popular party anthem called “1999”. The song was a premonition that 1999 would be a year we would all aspire to “party like”. It was obvious that Prince was making reference to the excitement associated with ringing in a new century. However, unbeknownst to him, the accommodative policies of the Federal Reserve would lead to a festal bubble in NASDAQ stocks, making his call to party in 1999 that much more appropriate.
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Monday, March 02, 2015
Stocks Fluctuate Along Record Highs - Which Direction Is Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,150 and profit target at 1,980, S&P 500 index)
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, March 02, 2015
The Stock Market is in The Process of Major Top! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The 10/20 week cycle low is due within this time frame. The previous 10 wk cycle low (ideally 50 trading days) on Dec 15, 2014 ran just 43 trading days. The next ideal trading low is due on March 6, 2015.
Feb 24 marked an irregular topping pattern off the Feb 20 top, which in Elliott Wave terms means that after the expected fast sell-off, a fast rally should ensue. The larger (b) wave shown on the chart should tag near SPX 2008/09. The next top (wave 'c') should occur about 15 trading days after the Feb 24 top and that should be around Mar 18 near 2130.
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Monday, March 02, 2015
Stock Market Weakening Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market
Intermediate trend - Is the 7-yr cycle sketching an intermediate top?
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which ultimately indicate the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, March 01, 2015
Stock Markets Are Riding High on Thin Air / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
I am often asked by the investors in my funds, "When will markets finally start paying attention to the signs of weak economic growth?" I tell them that the consensus answer is that bull markets only end when the Fed starts aggressively raising interest rates.
I also tell them that when interest rates are at zero, as they have been for the last seven years, the normal answer may not apply. In the meantime, stocks keep hitting new record highs while bonds and commodities are telling a very different story about the state of the economy…
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Sunday, March 01, 2015
Toppy Stock Market Charts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Stocks were floundering around most of the day on a weak GDP revision this morning, and a shockingly low Chicago PMI which *could* be an effect, at least in part, of the weather.
Stocks are looking a bit lofty here, and volumes are thin.
But here comes March, and another month in which the wolves can thin the saving herd, as thin as they may have become.
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Saturday, February 28, 2015
Recession is On The Way; Beat The Stock Market Crowd, Panic Now! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
In 2006-2007 I called for a recession. We got a big one. I called for another one in 2011, as did the ECRI. That recession never happened.
50% is not a very good recession predicting track record except in comparison to consensus economic opinions that have never once in history predicted a recession. Consensus opinion is batting a perfect 0.00%
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Saturday, February 28, 2015
Stocks Bull Market Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The week started off at SPX 2110. Then after dipping to SPX 2103 Monday morning the market rallied to new highs at 2120 by Wednesday. After that it spent the next two days within that range. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.1%, the NDX/NAZ were mixed, and the DJ World index was +0.3%. On the economic front negative reports continued to outpace positive ones. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, durable goods, the FHFA, consumer sentiment, and pending homes sales. On the downtick: existing home sales, consumer confidence, the CPI, the Chicago PMI, Q2 GDP, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week’s reports are highlighted by monthly Payrolls, the FED’s beige book and the PCE.
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Saturday, February 28, 2015
Stock Market Hesitation At The Trend Lines..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Most of the major-index charts, especially the Nasdaq and S&P 500, hit the top of their trend lines and are now struggling. We've shown you these charts and how difficult it can be here for the markets to continue higher with force. It would be best if we pulled back some first, although markets know how to fool the masses. Would it shock me if we saw another move higher first, because that's least expected? Not at all. Maybe one more move towards Nasdaq 5K and then down hard. Maybe not. There really is no way to know.
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Saturday, February 28, 2015
Don't Let This Stock Market Myth Cost You Your Gains / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Amazon, Apple, Cisco, Barnes & Noble, and hundreds of other companies are at fresh 52-week highs, leading many investors to question the wisdom of putting more money to work.
Yet that’s exactly what you should be doing.
I know it seems counter-intuitive – especially if you believe in buy low and sell high like I do – but here’s the thing…
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Saturday, February 28, 2015
Stock Market Investors Are Mistakenly Assured By Two Shaky Generalities / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Investors are complacent, even confident, regarding the prospects for 2015. That is in spite of the market being at valuation levels higher than all but one previous market peak of the last 100 years, while the economy appears to be slowing, corporate earnings growth is slowing, and the bull market has lasted an unusual length of time without a correction. In fact, the high level of investor optimism and confidence is itself a concern.
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Saturday, February 28, 2015
Stock Market Indexes Creeping Towards the Edge / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
SPX appears to be working on Micro Wave v of (c). The ideal target is 2114.27, but the trendline is at 2113.20. The maximum that it may rise in this scenario is 2115.47. This morning’s suggestion of 2014.00-2015.00 may have been a bit generous.
This may be a good spot to add another layer of aggressive short positions in equities. No confirms yet, but that may change rather quickly.
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Friday, February 27, 2015
France and Italy are the Next Causalities of the Credit Bubble / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2015
Editor's note: This article is excerpted from The State of the Global Markets Report -- 2015 Edition, a publication of Elliott Wave International, the world's largest financial forecasting firm. Data is updated to December 2014. You can download the full, 53-page report here.
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Friday, February 27, 2015
Will Month Long Stocks Rally Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,150 and profit target at 1,980, S&P 500 index)
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Thursday, February 26, 2015
Investing Inertia Won’t Keep Your Cash Safe / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015
A dear friend asked for help—the sort of help you might need too. She’s retired, lives alone, and has a modest nest egg. But the thought of losing any of her life savings terrifies her.
Let’s call my friend “Sally.” Sally doesn’t trust stockbrokers or any commission-based investment advisors, and she confided that all of her money is in a cash account, earning 0.01% interest.
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Thursday, February 26, 2015
Another Reason To Worry About The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The world is full of "carry trades" these days, and that's a really bad thing.
In general terms, a carry trade involves someone borrowing money cheaply in one currency or market and investing the proceeds in something else that offers a higher yield. The strategy is profitable as long as the currency being borrowed doesn't rise by more than the spread between the cost of the loan and the income from the investment.
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Thursday, February 26, 2015
Stock Market Double Top Test Broke to the Upside / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Last Wednesday, we reported on the Double Top test going on with the NYA Index.
What has happened since last week?
The NYA closed 0.28 above its resistance on Friday, It pulled back on Monday, and then closed above its Double Top resistance yesterday.
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Thursday, February 26, 2015
EU Warns Ireland and Euro Zone of Debt Dangers / Stock-Markets / Eurozone Debt Crisis
- High “structural” unemployment, high levels of public and private debt and a still vulnerable banking sector are weighing on the Irish economy
- Report further casts doubt on the “recovery” narrative being touted by governments, banks and vested interests across the world
- Levels of spin and denial not seen since before the crash of 2008
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Thursday, February 26, 2015
Apple Stock Snaps A Bit... Market Froth Out Of Control But Nothing Bearish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
In a normalized market it would be falling apart. The bull-bear spread is now at a ridiculous 45.4% with the bulls a hair shy of the magic 60% level, currently at 59.5%. Historically markets don't pull back from these levels. They crash. Nothing short of a massive, unexpected, out of the blue free-fall lower. We know why it's not happening yet. Fed Yellen, and all the global bankers, are working in concert to keep rates low and liquidity high, but rates at the low end is the real key to why we're holding up.
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Thursday, February 26, 2015
Stock Market Early Warning of a Turn / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The Minor Wave C rally appears to be over. A cross beneath SPX 2008.00-2010.00 may confirm the reversal.
The final waves settled into a Cyclical pattern that is unmistakable. Wave [i] finished in 25.8 hours. Wave [iii] completed in 34.4 hours. Wave [v] completed in 25.8 hours. The time spent on the rally itself was 116.1 hours.
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